1. A Machine Learning Algorithm Avoids Unnecessary Paracentesis for Exclusion of SBP in Cirrhosis in Resource-limited Settings.
- Author
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Silvey, Scott, Patel, Nilang, Liu, Jinze, Tafader, Asiya, Nadeem, Mahum, Dhaliwal, Galvin, O'Leary, Jacqueline G., Patton, Heather, Morgan, Timothy R., Rogal, Shari, and Bajaj, Jasmohan S.
- Abstract
Despite the poor prognosis associated with missed or delayed spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) diagnosis, <15% get timely paracentesis, which persists despite guidelines/education in the United States. Measures to exclude SBP non-invasively where timely paracentesis cannot be performed could streamline this burden. Using Veterans Health Administration Corporate Data Warehouse (VHA-CDW) we included patients with cirrhosis between 2009 and 2019 who underwent timely paracentesis and collected relevant clinical information (demographics, cirrhosis severity, medications, vitals, and comorbidities). XGBoost-models were trained on 75% of the primary cohort, with 25% reserved for testing. The final model was further validated in 2 cohorts: Validation cohort #1: In VHA-CDW, those without prior SBP who received 2nd early paracentesis, and Validation cohort #2: Prospective data from 276 non-electively admitted University hospital patients. Negative predictive values (NPVs) at 5%,10%, and 15% probability cutoffs were examined. Primary cohort: n = 9643 (mean age, 63.1 ± 8.7 years; 97.2% men; SBP, 15.0%) received first early paracentesis. Testing-set NPVs for SBP were 96.5%, 93.0%, and 91.6% at the 5%, 10%, and 15% probability thresholds, respectively. In Validation cohort #1: n = 2844 (mean age, 63.14 ± 8.37 years; 97.1% male; SBP, 9.7%) with NPVs were 98.8%, 95.3%, and 94.5%. In Validation cohort #2: n = 276 (mean age, 56.08 ± 9.09; 59.6% male; SBP, 7.6%) with NPVs were 100%, 98.9%, and 98.0% The final machine learning model showed the greatest net benefit on decision-curve analyses. A machine learning model generated using routinely collected variables excluded SBP with high NPV. Applying this model could ease the need to provide paracentesis in resource-limited settings by excluding those unlikely to have SBP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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