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Updated guidelines on diabetes recommend targeting sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) at patients at risk of heart failure (HF) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA) at those at greater risk of atherothrombotic events.We estimated the risk of different cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and newly established cardiovascular disease.Patients with T2D and newly established cardiovascular disease from 1998 to 2016 were identified using Danish healthcare registers and divided into one of four phenotype groups: (1) HF, (2) ischemic heart disease (IHD), (3) transient ischemic stroke (TIA)/ischemic stroke, and (4) peripheral artery disease (PAD). The absolute 5-year risk of the first HF- or atherothrombotic event occurring after inclusion was calculated, along with the risk of death.The main outcome was the first event of either HF or an atherothrombotic event (IHD, TIA/ischemic stroke or PAD) in patients with T2D and new-onset cardiovascular disease.Of the 37,850 patients included, 40% were female and the median age was 70 years. Patients with HF were at higher 5-year risk of a subsequent HF event (17.9%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 17.1-18.8%) than an atherothrombotic event (15.8%; 15.0-16.6%). Patients with IHD were at higher risk of a subsequent atherothrombotic event (24.6%; 23.9-25.3%) than developing HF, although the risk of HF was still substantial (10.6%; 10.2-11.1%). Conversely, patients with PAD were at low risk of developing HF (4.4%; 3.8-5.1%) but at high risk of developing an atherothrombotic event (15.9%; 14.9-17.1%). Patients with TIA/ischemic stroke had the lowest risk of HF (3.2%; 2.9-3.6%) and the highest risk of an atherothrombotic event (20.6%; 19.8-21.4).In T2D, a patient's cardiovascular phenotype can help predict the pattern of future cardiovascular events.

The prognostic importance of new-onset type 2 diabetes (T2D) in heart failure (HF) remains unknown. We aimed to describe the cardiovascular outcome profile in HF patients with new-onset, no and prevalent T2D.We constructed a cohort of patients with first HF admission between 1998 and 2016 from nationwide Danish registers. Outcomes were ischemic event, HF event, and death from other causes. The landmarking approach and the Aalen Johansen estimator were used together to estimate 5-year absolute and 5-year relative risk of the outcomes in HF patients with new-onset, no and prevalent T2D. Risk among subgroups were investigated by stratification.A total of 139 264 HF patients were included between 1998 and 2016, of which 29 078 patients had prevalent T2D. A total of 11 819 developed new-onset T2D. The 5-year risks of ischemic event in new-onset, no, and prevalent T2D were: 17.9% [17.2; 18.6], 18.8% [18.6; 19.0], and 26.1% [25.6; 26.7]. The 5-year risks of HF event were: 31.5% [30.6; 32.3], 30.7% [30.5; 31.0], and 33.6% [33.0; 34.2]. For other causes of death, the 5-year risks were: 20.9% [20.2; 21.7], 18.6% [18.4; 18.8], and 18.9% [18.4; 19.3]. The 5-year risk ratios of HF event or death from other causes versus ischemic event were: 2.9 [2.8; 3.1], 2.6 [2.6; 2.7], and 2.0 [2.0; 2.1] in patients with new-onset, no, and prevalent T2D.In patients with new-onset T2D, death from other causes were more likely to occur than an ischemic event, whereas in patients with prevalent T2D and no T2D, ischemic events were more common.