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Adaptation of port infrastructures to climate change and sea level rise effects is highlighted as a key field among transportation systems' lines of action for adaptation, given their highly exposed location in coastal areas and position as critical nodes in logistic chains and local, regional and national economies. The present work proposes an adaptation assessment framework that, based on a high-resolution compound climate risk assessment, identifies the main threats that climate change may pose to port performance, defines a set of optimized adaptation measures and characterizes constraints for implementation, and finally evaluates the applicability and effectiveness of these measures under diverse climate scenarios and different time frames. The framework is applied in a study case located in the northern coast of Spain. It is shown that the proposed methodology enables port managers and planners to develop tailor-fitted adaptation plans, providing tools to make them coherent with actual and future uncertain climate conditions. • The paper develops a novel framework to prepare climate change adaptation plans for port and coastal infrastructures. • It identifies the main needs and limitations for adaptation of port infrastructures based on a compound CC risk assessment. • It identifies and optimizes a set of adaptation measures, considering measure combinations, based on risk-reduction criteria. • It assesses the adaptation options' effectiveness in reducing climate risk for different scenarios and time horizons. • The framework has been applied and validated for a case study located on the Atlantic coast in Spain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal zones are under increasing risk as coastal hazards increase due to climate change and the consequences of these also increase due to on-going economic development. To effectively deal with this increased risk requires the development of validated tools to identify coastal areas of higher risk and to evaluate the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures. This paper analyses the performance in the application of two tools which have been developed in the RISC-KIT project: the regional Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) and a hotspot early warning system coupled with a decision support system (EWS/DSS). The paper discusses the main achievements of the tools as well as improvements needed to support their further use by the coastal community. The CRAF, a tool to identify and rank hotspots of coastal risk at the regional scale, provides useful results for coastal managers and stakeholders. A change over time of the hotspots location and ranking can be analysed as a function of changes on coastal occupation or climate change. This tool is highly dependent on the quality of available information and a major constraint to its application is the relatively poor availability and accessibility of high-quality data, particularly in respect to social-economic indicators, and to lesser extent the physical environment. The EWS/DSS can be used as a warning system to predict potential impacts or to test the effectiveness of risk reduction measures at a given hotspot. This tool provides high resolution results, but needs validation against impact data, which are still scarce. The EWS/DSS tool can be improved by enhancing the vulnerability relationships and detailing the receptors in each area (increasing the detail, but also model simulations). The developed EWS/DSS can be adapted and extended to include a greater range of conditions (including climate change), receptors, hazards and impacts, enhancing disaster preparedness for effective risk reduction for further events or morphological conditions. Despite these concerns, the tools assessed in this paper proved to be valuable instruments for coastal management and risk reduction that can be adopted in a wide range of coastal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an innovative framework is introduced for assessing the impact of climate change on coastal structures, with a primary emphasis on modeling future climate conditions. The framework encompasses several key components: the development of a new climate emulator to facilitate multivariate extreme value analysis; a hybrid statistical–numerical wave propagation strategy; and the integration of a novel compound modeling approach specific to coastal structure sites. These advancements are designed to effectively manage multiple climate scenarios and models within the context of high uncertainty. The methodology is applied and validated for a coastal structure located on the Mediterranean coast in Spain. Focusing on compound wave and sea-level events, the projections indicate an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme conditions, exacerbating coastal impacts such as wave overtopping. For instance, the present-day 500-year coastal flooding level would be associated with a return period of 50 years by mid-century under a stabilization scenario and would be further reduced to 25 years under a high-emission global warming scenario, resulting in important consequences for structure performance if no adaptation is implemented. • Develops a framework for assessing the impact of climate change on coastal structures. • It develops a new climate emulator to facilitate multivariate extreme value analysis. • It encompasses a hybrid statistical–numerical wave propagation strategy. • It integrates a novel compound modeling approach specific to coastal structures sites. • It has been applied and validated for a coastal structure in Spain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal areas for anthropic zones are vital economic hubs for tourism, fisheries and recreational activities. These are just some of the businesses which develop and grow many parts of the world. In terms of water quality, the growth of economy, along with the acceleration of climate change makes it necessary for sustainable coastal defense plans. No other environmental variable of such ecological importance to estuarine and coastal marine ecosystems around the world has changed so drastically, in such a short period of time, as dissolved oxygen in coastal waters. This paper specifically addresses the use of a new floating device called OXYFLUX, (devoid of electro-mechanical sections), as an innovative approach to altering water quality parameters with the aim of increasing the concentration of dissolved oxygen in the underwater areas near the bottom. This is based on laboratory results. The experiments were carried out on a device in 1:16 scale in wave flume at University of Bologna. OXYFLUX's functionality is based on floater's capacity to collect incoming waves into a reservoir that floats on the sea surface. Collected water yields a higher hydraulic head in the reservoir, which in turn induces a downward water flux inside the device body. The dynamic response of the device, and it’s pumping capacity are assessed under a variety of wave conditions by changing wave steepness. Experiments allow a first outline of design recommendations for these kinds of devices. At the end of the paper such guidelines are applied to Northern Adriatic coast conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Dike resilience against wave overtopping has gained more and more attention in recent years due to the effect of expected future climate changes. The overtopping flow velocities and flow depths on dikes have recently been studied in 2D small-scale experiments. This has led to semi-empirical formulae for the estimation of flow depths and flow velocities across a dike. The results have been coupled to the actual erosion of the landward dike slope determined by full-scale 2D tests using the so-called “Overtopping Simulator”. This paper describes the results from 96 small-scale tests carried out in a shallow water basin at Aalborg University to cover the so far unknown 3D effects from oblique long-crested and short-crested waves. Based on results from the laboratory tests, expansions are proposed to the existing 2D formulae so as to cover oblique and short-crested waves. The wave obliquity is seen to significantly reduce the overtopping flow velocities and flow depths on especially the landward slope of a sea dike. Moreover, the tests showed that the average flow directions on the dike crest from oblique long-crested and short-crested waves correspond approximately to the incident wave direction. Flow depths and the squared flow velocities on the dike are concluded to be Rayleigh-distributed in case of both long-crested and short-crested waves for all considered incident wave obliquities. Findings in the present paper are needed to obtain more realistic estimates of dike erosion caused by wave overtopping. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract Most of the experience collected on wave overtopping is concentrated on emerged or zero-freeboard structures, and only few experiments are available on over-washed dikes. The experience on submerged crest conditions is principally related to rubble mound structures and limited to the wave reflection and transmission processes. The existing tools for the prediction of the average wave overtopping discharge (q) at dikes are therefore targeted to represent overtopped structures, leading to cautious estimates at over-washed dikes and unrealistic overestimations in case of catastrophic scenarios such as breached dikes. This paper proposes a new conceptual and practical method for the prediction of q that is valid for both over-washed and fully breached dikes. It consists of three physically-based formulae whose coefficients are fitted on a new numerical database of smooth structures under variable wave attack. The predictions are compared with the new numerical results and the data and the tools available from the literature, i.e. experimental data, formulae and neural network. The new method gives a more realistic representation of the overtopping and overflow processes, reducing significantly the overestimation in case of breaching and being at least as accurate as the existing tools in case of over-washing. Highlights • An innovative method is proposed for the estimation of wave overtopping and overflow discharge at dikes. • The method can be applied to over-washed and breached dikes. • The method is based on a coherent theoretical and physically-based framework. • The method consists of three equations for a practical application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compound floods due to intense rainfall and storm surges in coastal areas have shown an increasing trend in some parts of the world, and many studies suggested a strong link with climate change. Yet, such link has not been fully explored and quantitively assessed. In this paper, we demonstrate the development and application of a nonstationary framework to determining different compound scenarios, where individual drivers and their interactions have altered under climate change. The framework has been applied to one of the most flood-prone areas: the Ho Chi Minh City of Vietnam, to help analyze the present and future compound flood risks in both the dry and wet seasons driven by the joint effect from heavy inland rainfall and high skew surge. Over the period of 1980–2017, the two drivers are found to be significantly correlated in March and April, corresponding to the transition from dry-to-wet seasons. We also find that the commonly-used traditional multivariate statistical models underestimate the flood magnitudes for both the current (represented by 2020) and future (represented by 2050) scenarios, when compared with the results produced by the nonstationary methods. In addition, the results reveal that the dry season is expected to receive more floods triggered by the increased intensity and frequency of rainfall extremes, with the magnitude reaching a similar level to that of the wet season. This is in line with the climate projections under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios although the duration of dry spells is expected to increase and the total annual rainfall to decrease in Vietnam. The simulated flood inundations indicate remarkable increases in flood magnitude and extension, especially at the locations identified as low risk by the stationary models. • A nonstationary framework for quantifying compound flood driven by time-varying factors and dependency under climate change. • Compound floods in March in Ho Chi Minh City driven by increased interaction between rainfall and skew surge. • Averaged rainfall in the wet season in Ho Chi Minh City decreased but the occurrence of extremes increased. • Sea level rise is the main factor triggering the increase of compound flood overcompensating for decreased rainfall. • Traditional stationary method underestimates the compound flood depth in both current (2020) and future (2050) scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medium/long term trends (annual to decadal scale) of beach change are mostly used to make coastal management decisions. However, short term, extreme episodic events (short term) can erode the beach to exceed sustainable erosion thresholds thereby impacting long term trends of coastal change. Therefore, understanding coastal change at short and medium-long term (years to decades) timescales is essential to provide sustainable solutions to beach erosion. In this paper, we investigate and simulate the change of a beach-dune system for a megatidal coastline in the UK at storm timescale and at medium-long term timescale corresponding to sea level rise, in order to assess their significance in terms of beach management. The field site of choice is the Sefton coast, located in Liverpool Bay, United Kingdom. The approach used here involves process based modelling to determine storm-induced beach erosion and the application of modified Bruun Rule (Dean and Houston, 2016) to determine medium-long term evolution associated with climate change impacts. The application of the process-based model, XBeach, reveals that storm-induced short term beach erosion can be in the same scale or may surpass average medium/long term erosion thresholds and therefore, should be taken in to account when managing coastlines. Despite the complexities of the megatidal Sefton coast, the modified Bruun Rule proved to be capable of capturing long term beach profile change and assures that it can be confidently used to determine medium-long term beach-dune change due to sea level rise, once reliable estimates of longshore transport and sediment sources/sinks are made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a probabilistic approach for mapping of coastal flood hazards associated with sea-level rise and storm intensification toward the end of the 21st century. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) predicts a 0.6-m ensemble mean of sea-level rise for the Central Pacific from the 1986–2005 to 2081–2100 epochs. Fifty downscaling simulations of the 2080–2099 period from the CMIP5 NCAR-CCSM4 model produce 2492 hurricanes around the Hawaiian Islands. In comparison with a control dataset for the 1980–1999 period, the simulated future hurricanes show a slight increase in number and a northward shift of the tracks toward the Hawaiian Islands. There are 627 hurricanes in the 2080–2099 dataset with potential impact on Oahu, and the top 24 storms selected by wind speed at the urban Honolulu coast define a scenario set for inundation mapping. A suite of spectral wave, circulation, and Boussinesq models in a nested grid system describes generation and propagation of surge and waves across the ocean as well as wave setup and runup at the coast. The interoperable package includes phase-averaged and phase-resolving processes to determine the coastal flood hazards over a range of spatial and temporal scales during a hurricane event. Since the simulated dataset corresponds to a quasi 1000-year period, barring the tail end of the distribution, the suite of inundation scenarios enables definition of flood hazard maps with return periods of up to 500 years or annual exceedance probabilities of 0.2% or greater for climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, coastal management has been facing new challenges: socio-economic growth and consequent climate change impose new boundary conditions pushing coastal systems towards unseen states. For adaptation and mitigation strategies as well as risk management, the resilience of systems to these projected changes must be tested and quantified using predictive tools, given the scarcity of observations. Process-based models, which limit the number of assumptions, are the preferred tools. However, these models are computationally expensive and therefore unattractive for global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Input and model reduction techniques, as well as behavioural empirical models, have been widely used to overcome these computational difficulties. In this paper, we propose a process-based hybrid workflow—that combines statistical and machine learning with a process-based numerical model—to provide sensitivity analyses on complex systems. As an example we explore salt intrusion in estuaries. The novelty of the method presented is the implementation of an adaptive sampling technique of numerical experiments with a process-based hydrodynamic model, and the training of a neural network to augment the set of numerical runs executed. The first uses predictive uncertainty to automatically explore the response of the complex system to varying environmental boundary conditions and geomorphological configurations. The second is trained to provide system responses around the sampled points. This exploration is closed by simulating the extremes in the output space as found by a genetic algorithm. This scheme is shown to be highly efficient in non-linear, heteroscedastic, and highly non-stationary systems. • An adaptive sampling approach enables the use of computationally expensive models for exploratory studies. • A new combination of machine learning techniques assists in understanding complex systems. • Machine learning techniques function as a supplement to process-based models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bruun rule is the most widely used method for determining shoreline response to sea level rise. It assumes that the active portion of an offshore profile rises with rising sea level, and the sand required to raise the profile is transported from the shoreline. It is difficult to evaluate the efficacy of the Bruun rule because sea level rise often has a lesser effect on shoreline change than that produced by sand sources, sinks, and longshore transport gradients. In addition, some shorelines have advanced seaward with rising sea level. Dean (1987) showed that equilibrium profile theory predicts that rising sea levels produce landward sand movement forced by nonlinear waves. This paper presents an equation with terms representing all phenomena affecting shoreline change including Bruun-rule recession, onshore sand transport, sand sources and sinks, and longshore transport gradients. As an example of its use, rates of onshore transport are determined along the 275-km Florida southwest coast, USA, and a 19-km portion of this coast using known values for sand sources, sinks, and longshore transport gradients. Then future shoreline changes are projected for both coasts from 2015 to 2065 and for the southwest coast from 2015 to 2100, using sea level rise projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Beach nourishment is shown to be a very effective adaptation strategy for sea level rise with shoreline change projections useful to estimate required rates of beach nourishment to counter sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the occurrence rate of caisson sliding of a vertical breakwater during a storm and the probabilistic distribution of the individual sliding distances are derived as functions of such important design variables as water depth, significant wave height, and caisson width. The expressions for various representative sliding distances such as the significant sliding distance are also derived. The derived statistical characteristics of individual sliding distances are then used for calculating the first passage probability of an allowable individual sliding distance during a storm. A method is also proposed to calculate the time-dependent first passage probability for the case where wave climate and mean water depth change with time. Finally, tentative design criteria for the allowable individual sliding distance are proposed. The proposed method is applied to fictitious breakwaters in different water depths near the Port of Hitachinaka in Japan. The time-dependent first passage probability is calculated for the next 50 years in which the wave height may increase due to climate change. The first passage probability increases as time elapses, as the water depth increases, and as the allowable individual sliding distance decreases. Comparison with a previous study that uses a performance-based design method shows that the allowable first passage probability should be in the range between 0.05 and 0.09. For the proposed method to be used in a practical design, however, more detailed study should be made to determine the allowable values of individual sliding distance, first passage probability, and representative sliding distance, by comparing with current design methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper presents a design exercise of upgrading a typical rock armoured revetment by modifying the structure profile and adding structure elements. Several concepts of upgrading are examined. A sea level rise corresponding to the mean of the IPCC 2007 predictions is used together with a slight increase in long-term wind/wave conditions as predicted for the North Sea by the Danish Coastal Authority. Both conditions of non-acceptable and acceptable increase in structure crest level are considered. Moreover, a scenario for steepening of the foreshore due to morphological changes caused by increased wave impacts is included. Only desk study tools are used for the upgrade designs. A simple comparative cost optimization analysis of the various upgrading solutions is presented, and conclusions are given for the preferred upgrading concept valid for the case study structure. A short discussion of the uncertainties related to upgrading design is included. The importance of physical model tests of the structures is underlined due to insufficient desk study tools for rubble mound upgrade design. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the vulnerability to flooding and erosion of four open beach study sites in Europe. A framework for the quantitative estimation of present and future coastal flood and erosion risks is established using methods, data and tools from across a range of disciplines, including topographic and bathymetric data, climate data from observation, hindcast and model projections, statistical modelling of current and future climates and integrated risk analysis tools. Uncertainties in the estimation of future coastal system dynamics are considered, as are the consequences for the inland systems. Different implementations of the framework are applied to the study sites which have different wave, tidal and surge climate conditions. These sites are: Santander, Spain—the Atlantic Ocean; Bellocchio, Italy—the Adriatic Sea; Varna, Bulgaria—the Black Sea; and the Teign Estuary, UK—the northern Atlantic Ocean. The complexity of each system is first simplified by sub-division into coastal “impact units” defined by homogeneity in the local key forcing parameters: wave, wind, tide, river discharge, run-off, etc. This reduces the simulation to that of a number of simpler linear problems which are treated by applying the first two components of the Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (S–P–R–C) approach. The case studies reveal the flexibility of this approach, which is found useful for the rapid assessment of the risks of flooding and erosion for a range of scenarios and the likely effectiveness of flood defences. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: One of the greatest challenges of coastal engineering today is the need for coastal protection in the changing climate scenario. Places which are nowadays protected will demand upgraded defences and more sites will require security; in all cases a large amount of resources will be needed to ensure beach maintenance and coastal safety. This may be an opportunity for the multi-purpose use of Wave Energy Converters (WECs) if the foreseen increase of energy demand in coastal areas is also considered. In this paper a group of WECs based on different operating concepts is numerically tested in front of two beaches, i.e. the Bay of Santander in Spain and Las Glorias beach in Mexico, representing two different case studies where the long-shore sediment transport is dominant. The hydrodynamics induced by these devices is represented by means of a 2D elliptic modified mild-slope model that is calibrated against new experimental results. The wave field is then used as input for the analytical calculation of the long-shore sediment transport and the coastline trend is estimated by applying the continuity of sediment equation. The characteristics of the selected numerical models give this work a first approach level. All the devices were found to produce a positive trend (accretion) at least in small areas. Recommendations are given to facilitate the selection of the device and the design of the farm layout for shore protection purpose. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Accurate wave climate characterization, which is vital to understand wave-driven coastal processes and to design coastal and offshore structures, requires the availability of long term data series. Where existing data are sparse, synthetically generated time series offer a practical alternative. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a methodology to simulate multivariate hourly sea state time series that preserve the statistical characteristics of the existing empirical data. This methodology combines different techniques such as univariate ARMAs, autoregressive logistic regression and K-means clusterization algorithms, and is able to take into account different time and space scales. The proposed methodology can be broken down into three interrelated steps: i) simulation of sea level pressure fields, ii) simulation of daily mean sea conditions time series and iii) simulation of hourly sea state time series. Its effectiveness is demonstrated by synthetically generating multivariate hourly sea states from a specific location near the Spanish Coast. The direct comparison between simulated and empirical time series confirms the ability of the developed methodology to generate multivariate hourly time series of sea states. Finally, the potential of the proposed methodology to simulate multivariate time series at multiple locations and incorporate climate change issues is discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The present work applies the shoreline model from part 1 to a real environment. In part 1, a numerical shoreline model which could handle the development of arbitrarily shaped shorelines was applied to consider the development of shoreline undulations on an unstable shoreline exposed to incoming waves with a directional spreading. In this paper, these findings are extended to firstly include the effect of a varying wave climate on the shoreline morphology and secondly, to tune the model to two naturally occurring shorelines. It is found that the effect of a variable wave climate is to slow down the development of the morphology and in some cases to inhibit the formation of shore-parallel spits at the crest of the undulations. On one of the natural shorelines, the west coast of Namibia, the shore is exposed to very obliquely waves from one main direction. Here, the shoreline model is able to describe the observed shoreline features qualitatively and quantitatively. The model slightly over-predicts the scale of the feature and, associated with this, slightly under-predicts the migration speeds of the features. On the second shoreline, the west coast of Denmark, the shore is exposed to waves with an angle close to the critical around 45°, and here the existence of undulations is discussed in detail. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a new numerical model for shoreline change which can be used to model the evolution of shorelines with large curvature. The model is based on a one-line formulation in terms of coordinates which follow the shape of the shoreline, instead of the more common approach where the two orthogonal horizontal directions are used. The volume error in the sediment continuity equation which is thereby introduced is removed through an iterative procedure. The model treats the shoreline changes by computing the sediment transport in a 2D coastal area model, and then integrating the sediment transport field across the coastal profile to obtain the longshore sediment transport variation along the shoreline. The model is used to compute the evolution of a shoreline with a 90° change in shoreline orientation; due to this drastic change in orientation a migrating shoreline spit develops in the model. The dimensions of the spits evolving in the model compare favorably to previous model results and to field observation of the Skaw Spit in the north of Denmark. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Coastal erosion is driven by both a storm's erosion potential and by an area's vulnerability. Therefore, the problem of estimating impacts can be approached in two-step. The first includes an assessment of erosion potential based on readily available storm parameters, while the second combines this information with highly localized parameters, describing vulnerability, to more directly predict local impacts. The work presented in this paper focuses on this first step, where a storm erosion potential climatology is developed by analyzing historical storms and is then utilized to identify historic patterns. Specifically, storms which have impacted the New Jersey coast over the past several decades are reevaluated using the Storm Erosion Index (SEI), developed by Miller and Livermont (2008), which considers the three primary storm-related drivers of coastal erosion (wave height, water level, and storm duration). These storms are assessed at thirteen shoreline segments defined along New Jersey's Atlantic coast from a 34 year-period (1980–2013) when concurrent wave and water level data is available. Approximately 130 unique storms are identified with the top three being the December 1992 nor'easter, the November 2009 Veteran's Day Storm, and Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, each having an estimated return period of greater than 15 years. The resulting climatology is found to exhibit several interesting spatial and temporal trends. Both portions of the state as well as months of the year that have historically experienced more storms and/or higher cumulative SEI (over the 34 years) are identified. While analysis of the climatology has also identified periods of reduced storm activity and those of intensified conditions, future monitoring is suggested to assess whether these patterns are persistent or related to climatic variations with cycles longer than can be captured by the thirty years included in this study. • SEI is capable of classifying and ranking major storms that have impacted the New Jersey coast based on erosion potential. • Approximately 130 unique storms are identified at each of the thirteen shoreline segments in New Jersey between 1980 2013. • The 34-year climatology is used to identify spatial and temporal patterns in erosion potential for the state. • The coastline towards the middle of the state experiences more storms and more intense storms than the northernmost sections. • By month, October has the highest cumulative SEI due to the number of high intensity storms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is and will continue altering the world's coasts, which are the most densely populated and economically active areas on earth and home for highly valuable ecosystems. While there is considerable relevant research, in the authors' experience this problem remains challenging for coastal engineering. This paper reviews important challenges in this respect and identifies three key actions to address them: (a) refocusing traditional practice towards more climate-aware approaches; (b) developing more comprehensive risk frameworks that include the multi-dimensionality and non-stationarity of their components and consideration of uncertainty; and (c) building bridges between risk assessment and adaptation theory and practice. We conclude that the way forward includes numerous activities including increased observations; the attribution of coastal impacts to their drivers; enhanced climate projections and their integration into impact models; more impact assessments at the local scale; dynamic projections of spatially-distributed exposure and vulnerability; and the exploration of inherently adaptive options. Given the complexity of the possible solutions, more practical guidance is required. • Reviews the challenges of climate change risks and adaptation in coastal areas. • Suggests refocusing traditional practice towards more climate-aware approaches. • Proposes multi-dimensional and non-stationary risk frameworks. • Emphasises the need to consider uncertainty. • Explores bridges between risk assessment and adaptation theory and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]