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A conference paper about U.S.-China conflict due to Taiwan is presented which was discussed at the 2012 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, from August 30-September 2, 2012. The paper discusses topics including China's emerging global influence in the post-Cold War era and the U.S. involvement in the Taiwan Strait conflict.

A conference paper about militarized conflict in the cross-strait relations is presented which was prepared for presentation at the 2012 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, from August 30-September 2, 2012. The paper discusses topics including the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangular relationships and the alliance-like arrangement between Taiwan and the U.S.

This paper examines the various impacts of contemporary globalization on national security, with special reference to the migration of the Taiwanese semiconductor industry to China and its security challenges to the United States, Taiwan and China. The paper adheres to a sectoral approach to the study of globalization-security interconnections and adopts a broadly based definition of security pertaining to the case study in question that encompasses economic, technological and defense security. The analysis of the subject matter is grounded in evidence collected in more than 140 interviews with chip industry, defense sector and government insiders in the US and Asia, as well as English-language and Chinese-language secondary data. On sectoral migration, the paper argues that the scope of the migration is extensive, the direction complicated, the cause multiple, and the outcome significant in boosting the development of the indigenous Chinese chip industry. It has been discovered that some Taiwanese non-state chip actors have violated government regulations in the process of spearheading the migration, and some have even forged business ties with their PRC counterparts associated with the PLA. As for the ensuing security ramifications, it is argued that there is no immediate security risk involved, although long-term strategic repercussions are paramount. The depth and scope of the continuous sectoral migration in years to come will determine the level of economic security risks faced by the US and Taiwan. Long-term technological and defense security repercussions need to take into account two important elements at play: technological change in the sector (increasing commercial-to-military spin-on and dual-use nature of the chip technology), and the PRC dual-track (economic and defense) grand strategy behind its resolve to upgrade its indigenous chip capability. Four pertinent aspects are analyzed: (a) concerns over the PRC chip industrial base, its contribution to the PLA modernization and the ensuing shift in the balance of power in Beijing's favour; (b) technology-related misgivings over the trustworthy supplies of chips for the US and Taiwanese military end uses, as well as the shrinking "chip gap"; (c) fear of denial of chip supply due to foreign dependency; (d) dubious implementation of export control policies at the unilateral and the multilateral level that exacerbate some of the above security repercussions. The concluding section elucidates how the case study helps to show the impact of globalization on security as far as the agency and scope of security, the autonomy and capacity of the state, as well as the balance of power are concerned. To sum up, the study offers a fresh look at the complex security repercussions of the globalization of a strategic industry that occurs in a politically sensitive region in world politics today. It not only helps us disentangle an important policy issue, but also advances our theoretical understanding of the globalization-security interconnections in international relations today. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Taiwan Lobby in the United States comprises 5 different components. There is Taiwan's unofficial embassy, the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO); the Taiwanese Chamber of Commerce of North America (TCCNA); World United Formosans for Independence (WUFI); the Formosan Association for Political Activity (FAPA); and there is the Kuomintang (KMT), which represented the Republic of China (ROC) from 1949 to 2001. TCCNA and FAPA have opposed the KMT. Each organization has used a different lobbying technique to achieve influence. Since Taiwan does not have an official embassy, and hence cannot rely on official interaction with the executive branch, the various lobbies are forced to seek influence over Congress, which is more porous and diverse. The KMT relied on the old "China Lobby", which comprised missionaries, businessmen, military leaders, and members of Congress, especially Republicans. In opposing the KMT, FAPA sought to influence Democratic members of Congress during the 1980s. FAPA succeeded in persuading Congress to convince the KMT to end 40 years of martial law on Taiwan. Over the subsequent 20 years of political liberalization on Taiwam, the different Taiwanese organizations have collectively focused on K Street lobbies as a mechanism to influence Congress, with the Taiwan government paying such lobbies as Cassidy & Associates. Does this strategy make a difference on U.S. foreign policy toward Taiwan? The Taiwan Lobby is second in influence only to AIPAC, and the lobbying firms it hires help generate dozens of congressional bills, such as the most recent call for Taiwan to be admitted to the UN. Yet, the executive branch has dominance in foreign policy, and has not changed its policy toward Taiwan since 1982, thus bills often fail. The Taiwan Lobby has tried to shift the locus of decision-making power from the executive branch to the legislative branch. Has this strategy been successful? If so, what is the extent of this success and how exactly is it achieved? In particular, since FAPA is the most active organization, what are the components of its operation? One possible component is the transnational communal politics practiced by Formosan nationalists and expressed through FAPA. This component is potentially valuable under a three-level framework that entails states, domestic politics, and transnational actors. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the interaction of domestic and international factors in determining relations and policies associated with Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait. It considers the possibility of direct military confrontation between the U.S. and its regional challenger, China, over Taiwan. A review of the literature on cross-Strait and the triangular relations of U.S.-China-Taiwan is presented. It considers the impact of U.S. presidential elections on the China policy since 1980.

The article offers a game theoretic view of the Taiwan issue. It is stated that the U.S. strategic ambiguity policy may or may not deter a conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. It may or may not deter from pursuing bolder measures to gain independence from China. As such, it is an effective policy in deterring both China and Taiwan from deviating from equilibrium strategies.