1. Social Assistance Policies, Economic Crisis, and the Presidential Vote in Latin America.
- Author
-
Layton, Matthew L. and Smith, Amy Erica
- Subjects
- *
SOCIOECONOMICS , *FINANCIAL crises , *VOTING , *ELECTIONS - Abstract
In this paper, we explore the electoral effects of conditional cash transfer (CCT) and other social programs in the context of economic crisis, using data from the 2010 round of the Americas Barometer. A debate has arisen over social assistance and presidential electoral outcomes, particularly in Mexico and Brazil. Using a pooled cross-national analysis, we show that the electoral impact of social assistance is conditional on economic evaluations more generally. While social assistance matters for all citizens, it is especially important in the context of economic crisis, attenuating the negative effect of perceptions of economic crisis on the vote for the incumbent. We argue that social assistance and economic crisis perceptions have both direct and indirect impacts on individual presidential vote choice, because they are partially mediated by perceptions of government performance. These results confirm that social assistance significantly alters the economic calculations of voters and is an important component of economic voting, particularly in countries that employ such counter-cyclical policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2011