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In this paper, we explore the electoral effects of conditional cash transfer (CCT) and other social programs in the context of economic crisis, using data from the 2010 round of the Americas Barometer. A debate has arisen over social assistance and presidential electoral outcomes, particularly in Mexico and Brazil. Using a pooled cross-national analysis, we show that the electoral impact of social assistance is conditional on economic evaluations more generally. While social assistance matters for all citizens, it is especially important in the context of economic crisis, attenuating the negative effect of perceptions of economic crisis on the vote for the incumbent. We argue that social assistance and economic crisis perceptions have both direct and indirect impacts on individual presidential vote choice, because they are partially mediated by perceptions of government performance. These results confirm that social assistance significantly alters the economic calculations of voters and is an important component of economic voting, particularly in countries that employ such counter-cyclical policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Competition among political parties is subject to two distinct functions, representation and effectiveness. This poses a dilemma for states undergoing democratization, as the political opening creates pressures for the representation of voices long suppressed, but the strain of the socioeconomic and political transformation engenders pressures for greater efficiency of the democratic project. The paper examines party contestation through party system fragmentation, electoral volatility, constituency representation, and reform of election rules in the newly competitive systems of East Europe and the former Soviet Union. The evidence from the region, in comparison to prior emerging democracies in Western Europe and Latin America at comparable time periods, reveals that the institutionalization of equilibrium between representation and efficiency in postcommunist party structures is a difficult process. The political scene in the postcommunist region is characterized by considerable ‘political noise’ with numerous contending parties, weak political actors, and floating constituencies. Multipartism remains high, contributing to the fragmentation of the political space to a degree that is beyond that of the earlier periods of democratization in Europe and closer to the pattern evident in Latin America. Similarly, volatility is not only higher in comparison to all other regions but continues unabated during the course of successive elections. These conditions are also responsible for much of the ‘ineffective representation’ evident in the relatively large share of waisted and renewal votes at each election. Faced by a wide array of political competitors and changes in the supply of parties, voters’ strategic behavior is undermined and significant sectors of the electorate are left out of the representative framework by casting votes for excluded parties. Electoral reforms reflect the twin pressures, with changes in formula favoring proportional representation, but higher effective thresholds making more difficult entry into parliament. The resulting mechanical and strategic effects confirm the expected direction of the reforms, although with distinct pulls in opposite directions, rendering problematic the structuring and stabilization of party competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]