The future of the U.S. military presence in Northeast Asia Introduction During the Cold War, the United States deployed a large amount of armed forces in Europe and Asia. In the past, the United States military involvement and intervention were important dynamics for security movement in Asia. These policies and actions also played indispensable roles in the U.S diplomatic and defense policies. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States decreased the size of its troops deployed in Europe, but there was no change in Asia. Obviously, the United States is convinced that it is suitable political choice to keep current military presence for guaranteeing the American national interest in Asia and dealing with the happening and future political and security development of this region. The question is: What is the future of the U.S. military presence? (e.g. military strategy, units, structure, personal, bases, cooperation with local countries) in Northeast Asia? Is it likely to remain the same, increase or decrease? Theoretical Construction The U.S military presence is depended on its grand strategy. What is the suitable theory to explain U.S. grand strategy toward this region? In 2002, President George W. Bush said America’s international strategies, and we can find the “Bush Doctrine” in this report; the United States will use a variety of measures, including forces, to actively, preemptively deal with the international affairs. The U.S. seeks not just to deter traditional great powers, but to eliminate the threats of “rogue states” and non-state actors capable of exercising disproportionate influence terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. Scholars have attempted to define the U.S grand strategy, for example, Barry R. Posen and Andrew L. Ross said that the United States had to reconsider its national security policy after the Cold War. There are four possible grand strategies; they may be termed neo-isolationism, selective engagement, cooperative security, and primacy. According to Robert J. Art, The United States should maintain military presence abroad to prevent five adverse situations, three ones of those situations relate to Northeast Asia; an acceleration of nuclear weapons spread, great power war, and the conquest or destruction of U.S allies, such as South Korea. John Mearsheimer’s theory of “offensive realism” is a structural theory of international politics. He defines that U.S is an offshore balancer; he means that U.S tried to “pass the buck” to other great powers to balance against the potential hegemony. If the approach failed, the United States will use its own military forces to eliminate the threat and ensure that it remains a sole regional hegemony. By historical experience, I think this theory that is helpful to describe the main reason for U.S to maintain its military presence in this region is past, now and future. The important factors (independent variables) By offensive realism, it is not strange for U.S to keep military presence in Northeast Asia. Now, the question is: What are the variables which increase or decrease the U.S. military presence? l The threat environment in Northeast Asia: present and future In the past five decades, the United States grand strategy was devoted to prevent Communist expansion. The well-known strategy was containment. Containment policy dictated U.S military presence in Asia. The U.S deployed-forward armed forces play two profound roles; formed an effective deterrence to Communism and supported the confidence of allies to defend themselves. As we have seen, there is a new world order in the sense that bipolar system established after World War II broken down. As China and Asia’s economic power rising, the military dimension becomes more important. Events such as: - The potential conflict between Republic of Korea (south) and Democratic People’s Republic Korea(north); One of the most important missions for U.S armed forces in this region to help counter a North Korea invasion. North Korea still deploys a huge amount of troops near the South Korea. The skirmishes between two Koreas are usually. Undoubtedly, the United States will involve any war that breaks out between North and South Korea. - North Korea’s nuclear weapon threat; although this country has serious economic crisis, the possibility of the deployment, production and proliferation of mass destruction weapons in this region is likely to be higher. It confronts Japan and the United States with a host of new security challenges. The United States came close to fighting a war against North Korea in June 1994 to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. In 2003, North Korea administration claimed the similar threat to the United States. - China: There are several reasons led us to believe China is the most important actor for affecting the threat environment that U.S has to face. Firstly, by offshore realism, the United States will prevent any sole hegemony to domain this region. China is a potential hegemony in Asia undoubtedly. In fact, the disappearance of Soviet Union, rising economic power, and nationalism would perhaps increase the possibility for China to become new hegemony to impact on Asian threat environment. Secondly, historically, China’s attitude, geographical situation, and its intervening in regional war, such as Korea War and Vietnam War, directly influenced American military presence in Northern Asia. Thirdly, China has intention to unify Taiwan by forces. The United States could get pulled into war with China over both Korea and Taiwan. In 1996, China’s missile exercise led President Clinton sent two aircraft-carrier battle groups into the waters around Taiwan. China is deploying large numbers of missiles in Fuijian province and its procuring more advanced weapons from Russia has posted a new threat to the U.S military troops in the region during a crisis. Fourthly, China can play relatively significant role in North Korea’s problem because Beijing is a Pyongyang’s supporter for past decades. l The attitude of the host countries: South Korea and Japan Obviously, the domestic pressure for reconsidering the current U.S military bases becomes higher today for two countries’ governments. For example, democratization in South Korea gave the Seoul administration more incentive to re-examine the status of U.S troops than past military leaders. More Japanese living in Okinawa do not favor U.S. troops stationed their island There are a lot negotiations and re-arrangements of the U.S military bases in Okinawa between American and Japanese government after the Cold War. Moreover, South Korea and Japan are stronger and able to defend themselves; therefore, the U.S security commitments to the region now are perhaps not as necessary as in the past decades. l Military technological developments The military technological development seems to change the pattern and varieties of forces deployment. For example, The U.S Air force are attempting to establish a forces of Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV), it would likely to decrease the number of U.S air bases in Asia. Because new aircrafts’ cost—such as F-22 and F-35—are higher than past fighters, the fleet of U.S Air Force is likely to decline. Due to the improvement of tactics and technology of landing battle, the role and deployment of U.S Marine Corps in Okinawa is another interesting issue for Pentagon. In the other words, the NMD (National Missile Defense) and TMD (Theater Missile Defense) have become the new American defense focus, and the North Korean and China ballistic missile threat will led the United States to build a new force based on Japan to help Tokyo administration to defend such threat. My Argument By historic experience and the U.S grand strategy, the important variable to influence the U.S military presence is threat environment. During the Cold War, containment was the core of U.S grand strategy, and the American military presence was an effective tool to contain Communists’ threat and defend the relatively weaker allies. However, the Cold War was end. The regional countries—South Korea and Japan—are also safer and stronger than before. Why do American soldiers stay here? According to offshore realism, therefore, if China does not become a potential hegemon, the United States will be likely to withdraw its troops from this region. If China becomes a potential hegemon, the U.S would keep military presence in the region to deal with China. Although the Soviet Union—the strongest military adversary America ever faced— collapsed, the future threat that U.S. will face in this region does not disappear. In current and future threat environment, China will play more important role due to its rising economy and military capability. However, the China’s problems, such as political instability, huge bad debt problem in banks, conflicts between countryside and urban areas, and serious income diversity not only decline the possibility for Beijing administration to become a regional hegemony, but also perhaps decrease its support to the North Korea. Therefore, the China’s strength or “collapse” will affect the U.S overall policies in this region, including military presence. Of course, it needs time. Moreover, the U.S. host countries (South Korea and Japan) may change the attitude and policies to U.S. military presence in the future. Besides, U.S. military technological development may change the future policies and composition of U.S. military presence. But the U.S military presence in South Korea and Japan not only defend them, but also serve for America’s strategic interest. If the United States supposes the regional threat environment that it needs military forces to deal with, it would persuade the host counties to support U.S policy regardless their possible opposition. In conclusion, the U.S military presence will remain the same in visible future after reviewing these variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]