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In recent years there has been growing interest in the prospects for democracy in the Middle East. The Arab world is the only region to be virtually untouched by the Third Wave of democratization, and since the World Trade Center terrorist attacks and the U.S. war in Iraq, the prospects of democracy within this region have increasingly preoccupied both academics and policymakers. Recent scholarship, in an attempt to move beyond cultural explanations of the lack of democratic institutions in the Middle East, has explored the relationship between the nature of authoritarianism and political change. Most of this research, however, has attempted to shed light on this relationship by using comparative case studies. In addition, these studies tend to be informed by only one theoretical framework, and thus do not integrate other important explanatory variables. This paper attempts to address some of these shortcomings. In particular, we consider which combination of structural characteristics within the Middle East is most conducive to regime change in general, and democratization more specifically. These structural conditions include both traditional variables such as modernization, oil rent and ethnic fractionalization, as well as more recently introduced factors such as the nature of Middle Eastern authoritarianism (i.e. Sultanism, Dynasticism, etc.). To explore these relationships, we combine case studies with statistical analysis to gain a more nuanced understanding of these processes over time. Moreover, we draw on different theoretical traditions to provide a more complete account of the relationship between structural characteristics and regime change and democratization. Our findings suggest that the explanations of regime change and democratization in the Middle East are much more complex than many scholars suggest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of voluntary associations on democratization in the Middle East. It analyzes the role of professional associations and labor unions in fostering democratic ideals and virtues in Jordan and Egypt. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research paper suggests that the cart has been placed before the horse, that democratization and open markets in the Middle East are more likely the result of effective development than the catalyst for it. The war on terror has been justified by the United States as an effective means of reducing the possibility of terrorist attacks. This paper analyzes the validity of those justifications by reviewing the linkage between democracy and economic growth and that between democracy and peace. The paper begins by hypothesizing that the war on terror and forced democratization of the Middle East are leading to increased terrorist attacks against foreign targets. The analysis suggests that effective development programs in non-democratically oriented countries, such as those in the Middle East, tend to promote democratization and that when the reverse procedure is applied through the use of force, the result is often destructive both for long-term development prospects and for peaceful relations with the intervener. The central research question this paper intends to answer is whether U.S. efforts at forced democratization in Iraq and Afghanistan are a central cause of increased terrorist activity against foreign targets and, if so, whether a more effective strategy would be to enhance development procedures that tend to foster democratic values and facilitate long-term, sustainable democratic growth. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theory of the rentier state is one of just a handful of theories, developed by Middle East studies specialists, that is cited by scholars of comparative politics more generally. Born of the experiences of oil-rich Gulf states, rentier state theory argues that countries that are heavily reliant on external rents, like oil profits, for government revenue develop a different bond between government and the citizenry than those regimes that rely primarily on taxation and that rent-reliant states are less likely to be democratic than their tax-reliant counterparts (Luciani 1987, Anderson 1987, Richards and Waterbury 1996). The theory of the rentier state has been cited by researchers who use economic development to explain democratization but are hard pressed to explain why relatively wealthy Arab Gulf states, like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and others, failed to democratize despite their high levels of per capita income. Large-N statistical studies aimed at explaining the factors most conducive to democratization suggest that income is a key determinant of democracy, except where oil is the dominant export. Political scientists have long theorized that prosperity stimulates democracy, but empirically oriented studies tend to include a statistically significant variable for level of oil and natural resource exports (Barro 1999, Ross 2001). In “Does Oil Hinder Democracy,” Ross finds that oil and natural resource exports have an undemocratic effect and cites the rentier state hypothesis as one of three possible causal mechanisms for why oil and natural resource exports might have this effect. In addition, more theoretically based qualitative works also use the rentier state logic. Huntington writes that wealth resulting from the sale of oil (and other natural resources) does not contribute to democratization; further, he argues that when external rents accrue directly to the government, it reduces the need of the regime to “solicit the acquiesence of its subjects to taxation” (Huntington 1991, 65). While rentier state theory has been most frequently used to explain levels of democratization, the theory also makes predictions regarding regime stability. Governments that derive revenue from non-tax sources, like oil rents, enjoy the benefits of allocating public goods to their citizenries without taking on the more difficult task of collecting taxes. Health, education, and other social services are heavily subsidized by the government, shoring up domestic support for the regime. Luciani argues that “even limited revenue from abroad dramatically improves the state’s ability to buy legitimacy through allocation and increases regime stability” (Luciani 1987, 76). Rentier state theory generates a key hypothesis regarding regime stability: H1: Rent-dependent states should be more stable than tax-dependent states. There are at least two alternative hypotheses regarding the effect of rentier wealth on regime stability. The first is that rentier states are likely to be less stable than their non-rentier counterparts because control of a state with sources of external wealth is a “prize” that is highly valued and rivals will try to capture this wealth. The second hypothesis is one put forth by Kiren Aziz Chaudry. She argues that states that rely on taxation for revenue take on “strong” state qualities while those that are dependent on external rents are “weak” states, particularly regarding political institutions and a state’s capacity to respond to external shocks. A state with weak institutions that has difficulty responding to shocks is likely to be less stable, both on the individual and regime level. Both of these alternative theories generate the following hypothesis: H2: Measures of a country’s dependence on external rents should be associated with less stability overall. In this paper, I hope to test these two competing hypothesis using duration analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the rising contention between a global foreign policy promoting liberal democracy in the Middle East and Islamist rejectionism. It provides a sociopolitical analysis of the phenomena of radical Islamist politics while focusing on the experience of Hezbollah in Lebanon. It associates the growth of Hezbollah, a political movement seen in various forms in several countries, with social class dynamics that have been antagonized by social inequality, the importation of western ordered democracy and by perceived foreign intervention. By examining the root dynamic of Hezbollah in post Syriana Lebanon, this article argues that poverty has provided the fertile ground for the growth of Islamic populism as a revolutionary movement and has represented a major reason for the rejection of democratization and political reform. A global foreign policy that seek to uproot extremism in favor of state building and the advancement of democracy in the Middle East needs to be reoriented as to help undermine class inequality and to strengthen government sponsored public services programs for the underclass. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that the main obstacle to democratization in the Middle East is the weakness of institutions that can hold parliaments and elected institutions accountable while accommodating Islamist or other "radical" political parties. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freedom of the individual, political stability, and calmer international relations are all characteristics of a democratic society. These virtues provide a strong case for democratization in unstable regions. While some regions have moved towards dem ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to slight political opening, a range of political parties and political.x000d.players have emerged in the Middle East. One of the major facts that have occurred in the wake of this.x000d.liberalization has been the developing of Islamist political parties into mainstream elector.x000d.politics. While many of these organizations, such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt,.x000d.and Hamas in Palestine.x000d.have been firmly rooted as religious groups and as influential actors.x000d.in civil society, recent electoral trends in the region have shown that they are additionally.x000d.not only viable political actors, but enormously successful ones as well..x000d.The purpose of this research is to explore how the US policy toward Islamist.x000d.organizations in the Middle East is. The study will analyze the prevailing condition of the.x000d.Muslim World and U.S. government attitudes toward Islamist movements and will.x000d.investigate how U.S. democracy promotion policy should be applied in Egypt with a significant Islamist presence in the political sphere. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The major goal of our research is determine the extent to which promotion of democracy and human rights in the Middle East has influenced and motivated U.S. foreign aid policy in an important region of the world in the last twenty five years. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the Cold war, many scholars thought that there are no more arms races, resulting in decrease in the military spending. In spite of these expectations, the expenditures of military have been increased in not only the super powers, but also the developing countries. We examined the effects of the level of democracy, economic conditions, military regimes, civil and international conflicts, and regional proximity on the competition between military and social expenditures to gain more national budgets using data from 165 countries in 1998 to 2003. The level of democracy and military regime were negatively related with the ratio of military spending to social spending. There was a positive relationship between them under incomplete democracy. Economic condition and conflicts were negatively and positively related with the ratio of military spending to social spending, respectively. Geographical proximity in the Middle East and Asian region significantly influenced the national budgets in relation with military and social spending. The results suggest that the level of democracy, economic conditions, international and domestic conflicts and neighboring countries can determine the competition between military and social spending to acquire the national budgets. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This Measurement model will improve our ability to identify patterns of distribution of power and respect and violation of rights in the Middle East and put this discussion on a more empirically accountable footing. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]