1. Dude, Where’s My District? The Electoral Consequences of the Gain and Loss of Latino Representation in Los Angeles.
- Author
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Barreto, Matt A. and DeSipio, Louis
- Subjects
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REPRESENTATIVE government , *VOTING registers , *ELECTIONS , *LATIN Americans - Abstract
Using official validated vote records from the Registrar of Voters, we examine voter turnout among Latinos and non-Latinos following the 2001 redistricting effort. Specifically, we compare turnout rates for Latinos that were districted out of, or into, a Latino district. In California, district boundaries shifted significantly in areas where the Latino population was becoming a majority to protect incumbent non-Latino office holders. In most instances, these Latinos were shifted to neighboring districts that already had Latino representatives. If the chance to elect a Latino candidate is a mobilizing force, we expect that Latinos shifting into Latino-held districts will be more likely to vote than in previous years. We test this proposition by modeling voter turnout in 2002 (election under new districts) among registered voters in Los Angeles and Orange Counties to determine if Latinos who moved into or out of Latino-represented districts are more or less likely to vote. In this naturally occurring experiment, there are four possibilities confronting a voter after redistricting: (1) Moved from non-Latino to Latino district; (2) Moved from Latino to non-Latino district; (3) Stayed in Latino district; (4) Stayed in non-Latino district. All other things being equal, we find that Latinos who moved from a non-Latino to Latino district were significantly more likely to vote, while non-Latinos who moved for the first time into a Latino district, were less likely to vote. Probit models are estimated using county registrar records from California. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2004
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