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International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change-vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population-level threats).

Small body size is generally correlated with r-selected life-history traits, including early maturation, short-generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small-bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray-Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi-Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty-three ecological and life-history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size-among small-bodied species-was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k-folds cross-validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small-bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.

Amphibian decline has led to worldwide conservation efforts, including the identification and designation of sites for their protection. These sites could also play an important role in the conservation of other freshwater taxa. In 89 ponds in Switzerland, we assessed the effectiveness of amphibians as a surrogate for 4 taxonomic groups that occur in the same freshwater ecosystems as amphibians: dragonflies, aquatic beetles, aquatic gastropods, and aquatic plants. The ponds were all of high value for amphibian conservation. Cross-taxon correlations were tested for species richness and conservation value, and Mantel tests were used to investigate community congruence. Species richness, conservation value, and community composition of amphibians were weakly congruent with these measures for the other taxonomic groups. Paired comparisons for the 5 groups considered showed that for each metric, amphibians had the lowest degree of congruence. Our results imply that site designation for amphibian conservation will not necessarily provide protection for freshwater biodiversity as a whole. To provide adequate protection for freshwater species, we recommend other taxonomic groups be considered in addition to amphibians in the prioritization and site designation process.

Conservation actions, such as habitat protection, attempt to halt the loss of threatened species and help their populations recover. The efficiency and the effectiveness of actions have been examined individually. However, conservation actions generally occur simultaneously, so the full suite of implemented conservation actions should be assessed. We used the conservation actions underway for all threatened and near-threatened birds of the world (International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species) to assess which biological (related to taxonomy and ecology) and anthropogenic (related to geoeconomics) factors were associated with the implementation of different classes of conservation actions. We also assessed which conservation actions were associated with population increases in the species targeted. Extinction-risk category was the strongest single predictor of the type of conservation actions implemented, followed by landmass type (continent, oceanic island, etc.) and generation length. Species targeted by invasive nonnative species control or eradication programs, ex situ conservation, international legislation, reintroduction, or education, and awareness-raising activities were more likely to have increasing populations. These results illustrate the importance of developing a predictive science of conservation actions and the relative benefits of each class of implemented conservation action for threatened and near-threatened birds worldwide.

Conservation actions need to be prioritized, often taking into account species' extinction risk. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List provides an accepted, objective framework for the assessment of extinction risk. Assessments based on data collected in the field are the best option, but the field data to base these on are often limited. Information collected through remote sensing can be used in place of field data to inform assessments. Forests are perhaps the best-studied land-cover type for use of remote-sensing data. Using an open-access 30-m resolution map of tree cover and its change between 2000 and 2012, we assessed the extent of forest cover and loss within the distributions of 11,186 forest-dependent amphibians, birds, and mammals worldwide. For 16 species, forest loss resulted in an elevated extinction risk under red-list criterion A, owing to inferred rapid population declines. This number increased to 23 when data-deficient species (i.e., those with insufficient information for evaluation) were included. Under red-list criterion B2, 484 species (855 when data-deficient species were included) were considered at elevated extinction risk, owing to restricted areas of occupancy resulting from little forest cover remaining within their ranges. The proportion of species of conservation concern would increase by 32.8% for amphibians, 15.1% for birds, and 24.7% for mammals if our suggested uplistings are accepted. Central America, the Northern Andes, Madagascar, the Eastern Arc forests in Africa, and the islands of Southeast Asia are hotspots for these species. Our results illustrate the utility of satellite imagery for global extinction-risk assessment and measurement of progress toward international environmental agreement targets.

In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species’ distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11–13% for all species combined (14–15% for mammals, 7–8% for birds, and 12–15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one-time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List includes 832 species listed as extinct since 1600, a minuscule fraction of total biodiversity. This extinction rate is of the same order of magnitude as the background rate and has been used to downplay the biodiversity crisis. Invertebrates comprise 99% of biodiversity, yet the status of a negligible number has been assessed. We assessed extinction in the Hawaiian land snail family Amastridae (325 species, IUCN lists 33 as extinct). We did not use the stringent IUCN criteria, by which most invertebrates would be considered data deficient, but a more realistic approach comparing historical collections with modern surveys and expert knowledge. Of the 325 Amastridae species, 43 were originally described as fossil or subfossil and were assumed to be extinct. Of the remaining 282, we evaluated 88 as extinct and 15 as extant and determined that 179 species had insufficient evidence of extinction (though most are probably extinct). Results of statistical assessment of extinction probabilities were consistent with our expert evaluations of levels of extinction. Modeling various extinction scenarios yielded extinction rates of 0.4-14.0% of the amastrid fauna per decade. The true rate of amastrid extinction has not been constant; generally, it has increased over time. We estimated a realistic average extinction rate as approximately 5%/decade since the first half of the nineteenth century. In general, oceanic island biotas are especially susceptible to extinction and global rate generalizations do not reflect this. Our approach could be used for other invertebrates, especially those with restricted ranges (e.g., islands), and such an approach may be the only way to evaluate invertebrates rapidly enough to keep up with ongoing extinction.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI) is used tomeasure trends in extinction risk of species over time. The development of 2 red lists for Spanish vascularflora during the past decade allowed us to apply the IUCN RLI to vascular plants in an area belonging to aglobal biodiversity hotspot. We used the Spanish Red Lists from 2000 and 2010 to assess changes in level ofthreat at a national scale and at the subnational scales of Canary Islands, Balearic Islands, and peninsular Spain. We assigned retrospective IUCN categories of threat to 98 species included in the Spanish Red List of2010 but absent in the Spanish Red List of 2000. In addition, we tested the effect of different random andtaxonomic and spatial Spanish samples on the overall RLI value. From 2000 to 2010, the IUCN categoriesof 768 species changed (10% of Spanish flora), mainly due to improved knowledge (63%), modifications inIUCN criteria (14%), and changes in threat status (12%). All measured national and subnational RLI valuesdecreased during this period, indicating a general decline in the conservation status of the Spanish vascularflora. The Canarian RLI value (0.84) was the lowest, although the fastest deterioration in conservation statusoccurred on peninsular Spain (from 0.93 in 2000 to 0.92 in 2010). The RLI values based on subsamples of theSpanish Red List were not representative of RLI values for the entire country, which would discourage the useof small areas or small taxonomic samples to assess general trends in the endangerment of national biotas.The role of the RLI in monitoring of changes in biodiversity at the global and regional scales needs furtherreassessment because additional areas and taxa are necessary to determine whether the index is sufficientlysensitive for use in assessing temporal changes in species’ risk of extinction.

Assessing temporal changes in species extinction risk is necessary for measuring conservation success or failure and for directing conservation resources toward species or regions that would benefit most. Yet, there is no long-term picture of genuine change that allows one to associate species extinction risk trends with drivers of change or conservation actions. Through a review of 40 years of IUCN-related literature sources on species conservation status (e.g., action plans, red-data books), we assigned retrospective red-list categories to the world's carnivores and ungulates (2 groups with relatively long generation times) to examine how their extinction risk has changed since the 1970s. We then aggregated species' categories to calculate a global trend in their extinction risk over time. A decline in the conservation status of carnivores and ungulates was underway 40 years ago and has since accelerated. One quarter of all species (n = 498) moved one or more categories closer to extinction globally, while almost half of the species moved closer to extinction in Southeast Asia. The conservation status of some species improved (toward less threatened categories), but for each species that improved in status 8 deteriorated. The status of large-bodied species, particularly those above 100 kg (including many iconic taxa), deteriorated significantly more than small-bodied species (below 10 kg). The trends we found are likely related to geopolitical events (such as the collapse of Soviet Union), international regulations (such as CITES), shifting cultural values, and natural resource exploitation (e.g., in Southeast Asia). Retrospective assessments of global species extinction risk reduce the risk of a shifting baseline syndrome, which can affect decisions on the desirable conservation status of species. Such assessments can help conservationists identify which conservation policies and strategies are or are not helping safeguard biodiversity and thus can improve future strategies.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI) is recognized as one of the key indicators of trends in the status of species. The red-list assessment done by Finnish authorities of species in Finland is taxonomically one of the most extensive national assessments. We used the Finnish Red Lists from 2000 and 2010 to calculate for the first time the national RLIs for 11 taxonomic groups at different trophic levels and with different life cycles. The red-list index is calculated on the basis of changes in red-list categories and indicates trends in the status of biological diversity of sets of species. The RLI value ranges from 0 to 1. The lower the value the faster the set of species is heading toward extinction. If the value is 1, all species in the set are least concern and if the value is 0, all species are (regionally) extinct. The overall RLI of Finnish species decreased. This means that, in Finland, these taxonomic groups were heading toward extinction faster in 2010 than in 2000. Of the analyzed groups of organisms, RLIs of 5 decreased and RLIs of 6 increased. At the national level, the RLIs and status trends varied markedly between species groups. Thus, we concluded that generalizations on the basis of RLIs of a few taxa only may yield a biased view of ongoing trends in the status of biological diversity at the species level. In addition, one overall RLI that includes many different species groups may also be misleading if variation in RLI among species groups is not considered and if RLI values are not presented separately for each group. Aplicacion del Indice de la Lista Roja a Nivel Nacional para Grupos de Especies Multiples Resumen El Indice de la Lista Roja (ILR) de la Union Internacional para la Conservacion de la Naturaleza (IUCN) es reconocido como uno de los indicadores clave de las tendencias en el estatus de las especies. La evaluacion de lista roja realizada por autoridades finlandesas con las especies en Finlandia es, taxonomicamente, una de las evaluaciones nacionales mas extensivas. Utilizamos las Listas Rojas Finlandesas de 2000 a 2010 para calcular, por primera vez, los ILR nacionales para 11 grupos taxonomicos en diferentes niveles troficos y con ciclos de vida diferentes. El indice de la lista roja se calcula con base en los cambios en las categorias de la lista roja e indica las tendencias en el estatus de biodiversidad de conjuntos de especies. El valor de ILR varia entre 0 y 1. A menor valor, mayor la velocidad con que el conjunto de especies va hacia la extincion. Si el valor es 1, todas las especies en el conjunto son de menor preocupacion y si el valor es 0, todas las especies estan extintas (regionalmente). El ILR general de especies finlandesas decrecio. Esto significa que, en Finlandia, estos grupos taxonomicos van rumbo a la extincion mas rapido en 2010 que en 2000. De los grupos de organismos analizados, los ILR de 5 disminuyeron y los ILR de 6 incrementaron. A nivel nacional, los ILR y las tendencias de estatus variaron marcadamente entre especies y grupos. Por lo tanto, concluimos que las generalizaciones con base en los ILR de solo unos cuantos taxa puede producir una vision sesgada de las tendencias en el estatus de la biodiversidad a nivel de especies. Adicionalmente, un ILR total que incluye muchos grupos diferentes de especies tambien puede ser enganoso si la variacion del ILR entre grupos de especies no es considerada y si los valores de ILR so se presentan por separado para cada grupo.

The 2010 biodiversity target agreed by signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity directed the attention of conservation professionals toward the development of indicators with which to measure changes in biological diversity at the global scale. We considered why global biodiversity indicators are needed, what characteristics successful global indicators have, and how existing indicators perform. Because monitoring could absorb a large proportion of funds available for conservation, we believe indicators should be linked explicitly to monitoring objectives and decisions about which monitoring schemes deserve funding should be informed by predictions of the value of such schemes to decision making. We suggest that raising awareness among the public and policy makers, auditing management actions, and informing policy choices are the most important global monitoring objectives. Using four well-developed indicators of biological diversity (extent of forests, coverage of protected areas, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) as examples, we analyzed the characteristics needed for indicators to meet these objectives. We recommend that conservation professionals improve on existing indicators by eliminating spatial biases in data availability, fill gaps in information about ecosystems other than forests, and improve understanding of the way indicators respond to policy changes. Monitoring is not an end in itself, and we believe it is vital that the ultimate objectives of global monitoring of biological diversity inform development of new indicators.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species was increasingly used during the 1980s to assess the conservation status of species for policy and planning purposes. This use stimulated the development of a new set of quantitative criteria for listing species in the categories of threat: critically endangered, endangered, and vulnerable. These criteria, which were intended to be applicable to all species except microorganisms, were part of a broader system for classifying threatened species and were fully implemented by IUCN in 2000. The system and the criteria have been widely used by conservation practitioners and scientists and now underpin one indicator being used to assess the Convention on Biological Diversity 2010 biodiversity target. We describe the process and the technical background to the IUCN Red List system. The criteria refer to fundamental biological processes underlying population decline and extinction. But given major differences between species, the threatening processes affecting them, and the paucity of knowledge relating to most species, the IUCN system had to be both broad and flexible to be applicable to the majority of described species. The system was designed to measure the symptoms of extinction risk, and uses 5 independent criteria relating to aspects of population loss and decline of range size. A species is assigned to a threat category if it meets the quantitative threshold for at least one criterion. The criteria and the accompanying rules and guidelines used by IUCN are intended to increase the consistency, transparency, and validity of its categorization system, but it necessitates some compromises that affect the applicability of the system and the species lists that result. In particular, choices were made over the assessment of uncertainty, poorly known species, depleted species, population decline, restricted ranges, and rarity; all of these affect the way red lists should be viewed and used. Processes related to priority setting and the development of national red lists need to take account of some assumptions in the formulation of the criteria.La Lista Roja de Especies Amenazadas de la UICN (Union Internacional para la Conservacion de la Naturaleza) fue muy utilizada durante la decada de l980 para evaluar el estatus de conservacion de especies para fines politicos y de planificacion. Este uso estimulo el desarrollo de un conjunto nuevo de criterios cuantitativos para enlistar especies en las categorias de amenaza: en peligro critico, en peligro y vulnerable. Estos criterios, que se pretendia fueran aplicables a todas las especies excepto microorganismos, eran parte de un sistema general para clasificar especies amenazadas y fueron implementadas completamente por la UICN en 2000. El sistema y los criterios han sido ampliamente utilizados por practicantes y cientificos de la conservacion y actualmente apuntalan un indicador utilizado para evaluar el objetivo al 2010 de la Convencion de Diversidad Biologica. Describimos el proceso y el respaldo tecnico del sistema de la Lista Roja de la IUCN. Los criterios se refieren a los procesos biologicos fundamentales que subyacen en la declinacion y extincion de una poblacion. Pero, debido a diferencias mayores entre especies, los procesos de amenaza que los afectan y la escasez de conocimiento sobre la mayoria de las especies, el sistema de la UICN tenia que ser amplio y flexible para ser aplicable a la mayoria de las especies descritas. El sistema fue disenado para medir los sintomas del riesgo de extincion, y utiiza cinco criterios independientes que relacionan aspectos de la perdida poblacional y la declinacion del rango de distribucion. Una especie es asignada a una categoria de amenaza si cumple el umbral cuantitativo por lo menos para un criterio. Los criterios, las reglas acompanantes y las directrices utilizadas por la UICN tienen la intencion de incrementar la consistencia, transparencia y validez de su sistema de clasificacion, pero requiere algunos compromisos que afectan la aplicabilidad del sistema y las listas de especies que resultan. En particular, se hicieron selecciones por encima de la evaluacion de incertidumbre, especies poco conocidas, especies disminuidas, declinacion poblacional, rangos restringidos y rareza; todas estas afectan la forma en que las listas rojas deberian ser vistas y usadas. Los procesos relacionados con la definicion de prioridades y el desarrollo de las listas rojas nacionales necesitan considerar algunos de los supuestos en la formulacion de los criterios.

In recent centuries bird species have been deteriorating in status and becoming extinct at a rate that may be 2–3 orders of magnitude higher than in prehuman times. We examined extinction rates of bird species designated critically endangered in 1994 and the rate at which species have moved through the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List categories of extinction risk globally for the period 1988–2004 and regionally in Australia from 1750 to 2000. For Australia we drew on historical accounts of the extent and condition of species habitats, spread of invasive species, and changes in sighting frequencies. These data sets permitted comparison of observed rates of movement through the IUCN Red List categories with novel predictions based on the IUCN Red List criterion E, which relates to explicit extinction probabilities determined, for example, by population viability analysis. The comparison also tested whether species listed on the basis of other criteria face a similar probability of moving to a higher threat category as those listed under criterion E. For the rate at which species moved from vulnerable to endangered, there was a good match between observations and predictions, both worldwide and in Australia. Nevertheless, species have become extinct at a rate that, although historically high, is 2 (Australia) to 10 (globally) times lower than predicted. Although the extinction probability associated with the critically endangered category may be too high, the shortfall in realized extinctions can also be attributed to the beneficial impact of conservation intervention. These efforts may have reduced the number of global extinctions from 19 to 3 and substantially slowed the extinction trajectory of 33 additional critically endangered species. Our results suggest that current conservation action benefits species on the brink of extinction, but is less targeted at or has less effect on moderately threatened species.

Of the roughly 12,000 known plant species in Madagascar only 3% are found in the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List of Threatened Species. We assigned preliminary IUCN categories of threat to the species of a comparatively well-known tribe, Coleeae (Bignoniaceae), which comprises an endemic, species-rich radiation in Madagascar Because the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria 3.1 discourage the use of the data-deficient category, we developed a novel method for differentiating between range-limited species and poorly sampled species. We used the Missouri Botanical Garden (MBG) gazetteer to determine where other collection efforts had taken place. We drew buffers around each Coleeae locality and determined how many times the surrounding area bad been visited since the last sighting of the specimens by intersecting the buffers with all known botanical localities from the MBG gazetteer We determined that at least 54% of the Coleeae species are threatened with extinction. Assignments of species to this category were often due to predicted future decline within their current area of occupancy and their lack of inclusion within the protected-area network (only 42% of species are known to occur in protected areas). Three species were presumed extinct, and an additional 12 have not been seen in decades. Among the species threatened with extinction, we "rescued" six of them from the data-deficient category by considering both the sample dates and localities of places where they occurred in relation to additional collections that took place in the immediate area. Due to their recent discovery, 15 species remained in the data-deficient category If Coleeae is representative of the Malagasy flora, or at least of other endemic-radiated plant groups, then species loss in Madagascar may be even more extreme than is realized.

National red lists of threatened animal and plant species prepared according to the criteria of the World Conservation Union (IUCN) adequately reflect the extinction risk of species within a country but cannot be used directly to set conservation priorities. In particular, the significance of national populations for the conservation of the species as a whole is not taken into account. We present a procedure that can be used to assess national responsibility based on the national red-list status of a species, the international impor- tance of the national population, and the species' "historical rarity" status. We distinguished five responsibility classes for breeding birds: B1, threatened species with internationally important populations in Switzerland; B2, threatened species with internationally less important populations; B3, nonthreatened species with inter- nationally important populations; B4, nonthreatened species with internationally less important populations; and B5, species that have never been common in Switzerland. Two responsibility classes were distinguished for birds occurring in Switzerland as visitors: G1, species with large concentrations in Switzerland and an unfavorable conservation status in Europe, and G2, species with large concentrations in Switzerland and a favorable conservation status in Europe. Two additional classes (G3 and G4) for visiting species occurring in internationally less important numbers are possible but were not analyzed in detail. Responsibility classes B1, B2, B3, G1, and G2 were defined as species of national conservation concern. We developed the method for birds in Switzerland, but it can be used in other countries and for other taxonomic groups as well. It is particularly suitable where national red lists are established according to IUCN guidelines.

This paper represents a work in progress by the World Conservation Union (IUCN). Earlier drafts of the work have appeared in IUCN publications, but the “International Issues” section of Conservation Biology seems an appropriate and important place to publish the penultimate version of the document. Comments on this issue in general or on the approach taken by the IUCN should be sent to the authors directly. Joshua Ginsburg

STUART H. M. BUTCHART,∗ H. RESIT AKCAKAYA,‡ ELIZABETH KENNEDY,§ AND CRAIG HILTON-TAYLOR∗∗ ∗BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Girton Road, Cambridge, CB3 0NA, United Kingdom, email stuart.butchart@birdlife.org ‡Applied Biomathematics, 100 North Country Road, Setauket, New York 11733, U.S.A. §Conservation International, 1919 M Street, NW Street 600, Washington, D.C. 20036, U.S.A. ∗∗IUCN Species Programme Office, 219c Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, United Kingdom

IUCN categories of threat (Endangered Vulnera- ble, Rare, Indeterminate, and others) are widely used in 'Red lists' of endangered species and have become an important tool in conservation action at international, national, re- gional, and thematic levels. The existing definitions are largely subjective, and as a result, categorizations made by different authorities diyfer and my not accurately reflect actual extinction risks. We present proposals to redefine cat- egories in tams of the probability of extinction within a specific time perio4 based on the theory of extinction times for single populations and on meaningful time scales for conservation action. Three categories are proposed (CRITI- CAL, ENDANGE-, VULNERABLE) with decreasing levels of threat over increasing time scales for species estimated to have at least a 10% probability of extinction within 100 years. The process of assigning species to categories may need to vay among different taxonomic groups, but we present some simple qualitative criteria based on population biol- ogy theory, which we suggest are appropriate at least for most large vertebrates. The process of assessing threat is clearly distinguished from that of setting priorities for con- servation action, and only the former is discussed here.