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An empirical method was developed for the prediction of the service life of building components, based on an evaluation of their actual performance and on the identification of failure mechanisms affecting their durability. The service life of exterior components subjected to normal service conditions is predicted. Four types of exterior claddings are exemplified: cementitious mortar, synthetic rendering, ceramic mosaic, and wet-fixing stone cladding. The proposed prediction models yield high degrees of fit to the data (R^ in the range of 0.86 to 0.93 at a 0.0001 level of significance). Life cycle costs (LCC) analysis - following service-life prediction results - leads to the conclusion that maintenance and replacements costs account for 10-80% of initial capital costs. Synthetic rendering exhibited the highest LCC effectiveness, reflecting durability and low capital costs. The method can be used for planning preventive maintenance, evaluating economic implications of failures, and planning service life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]