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COVID-19 represents the greatest health crisis in recent human history. To date, it is still difficult to estimate its impact on mortality. This paper investigates the excess crude mortality in 27 European countries. The differences between the values observed in 2020 and 2021 with those predicted by a joinpoint regression model were evaluated. A multi-regression analysis was implemented to assess the relationship between health variables and excess mortality. Europe experienced a marked and surprising (S-value > 52) increase in crude mortality during 2020 (Δ% = +10.0%, 95% CI: [2.5; 18.7]) and 2021 (Δ% = +12.1%, 95% CI: [4.3; 21.2]). The difference between average excesses of Eastern and Western countries was not surprising (S < 2) and had little relevance (ΔE-W = −2.4, 95% CI: [−2; 7]) during 2020 but was more pronounced (S = 15, ΔE-W = +17.2, 95% CI: [11.0; 23.5]) during 2021. Excess crude mortality increased in 2021 (Δ% = +65%, 95% CI: [12.6; 118], S = 5.9). Evidence has been found for a surprising and marked negative linear relationship between COVID-19 vaccinations and excess mortality ("2021 excess mortality = A + BX4", with "A = 58 ± 7, S = 28" and "B = −0.65 ± 0.10, S = 22, Radj2 = 0.65, 95% CI: [0.38; 0.82]). In light of the current literature, these findings provide solid evidence of the substantial role of COVID-19 in the unexpected and marked excess mortality recorded in Europe. COVID-19 vaccinations have appeared to be one of the main determinants for reducing mortality. Future research should explore these aspects in more detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contact tracing is a method used to control the spread of a pandemic. The objectives of this research are to conduct an empirical review and content analysis to identify the environmental factors causing the spread of the pandemic and to propose an ontology-based big data architecture to collect these factors for prediction. No research studies these factors as a whole in pandemic prediction. The research method used was an empirical study and content analysis. The keywords contact tracking, pandemic spread, fear, hygiene measures, government policy, prevention programs, pandemic programs, information disclosure, pandemic economics, and COVID-19 were used to archive studies on the pandemic spread from 2019 to 2022 in the EBSCOHost databases (e.g., Medline, ERIC, Library Information Science & Technology, etc.). The results showed that only 84 of the 588 archived studies were relevant. The risk perception of the pandemic (n = 14), hygiene behavior (n = 7), culture (n = 12), and attitudes of government policies on pandemic prevention (n = 25), education programs (n = 2), business restrictions (n = 2), technology infrastructure, and multimedia usage (n = 24) were the major environmental factors influencing public behavior of pandemic prevention. An ontology-based big data architecture is proposed to collect these factors for building the spread prediction model. The new method overcomes the limitation of traditional pandemic prediction model such as Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) that only uses time series to predict epidemic trend. The big data architecture allows multi-dimension data and modern AI methods to be used to train the contagion scenarios for spread prediction. It helps policymakers to plan pandemic prevention programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is a catastrophic emerging global health threat caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 has a wide range of complications and sequelae. It is devastating in developing countries, causing serious health and socioeconomic crises as a result of the increasingly overburdened healthcare system. This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ethiopia. Methods: Electronic databases, such as PubMed, Google Scholar, Web of Science, Research Gate, Embase, and Scopus were thoroughly searched from March to April 2022 to identify relevant studies. The quality of the included studies was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality scale for cross-sectional studies. STATA-12 was used for analysis. A random-effects model was used to compute the pooled prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The heterogeneity was quantified by using the I2 value. Subgroup analysis was done for sex, age of study subjects, population type, diagnostic methods, and publication year. Publication bias was assessed using a funnel plot and Egger's test. A sensitivity analysis was also done. Result: 11 studies consisting of 35,376 study participants (15,759 male and 19,838 female) were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 8.83%. There was substantial heterogeneity, with an I2 value of 99.3%. The pooled prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was higher in males (9.27%) than in females (8.8%). According to the publication year, a higher prevalence was obtained in 2021 (12.69%). Similarly, it was higher in the population of specific groups (16.65%) than in the general population (5.75%). Conclusion: the national pooled prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Ethiopian population was 8.83%. This indicates that the burden of COVID-19 is still high, which urges routine screening and appropriate treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. This virus presents high levels of mutation and transmissibility, which contributed to the emergence of the pandemic. Our study aimed to analyze, in silico, the genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 strains in Bahia State by comparing patterns in variability of strains circulating in Brazil with the first isolated strain NC_045512 (reference sequence). Genomes were collected using GISAID, and subsequently aligned and compared using structural and functional genomic annotation. A total of 744 genomes were selected, and 20,773 mutations were found, most of which were of the SNP type. Most of the samples presented low mutational impact, and of the samples, the P.1 (360) lineage possessed the highest prevalence. The most prevalent epitopes were associated with the ORF1ab protein, and in addition to P.1, twenty-one other lineages were also detected during the study period, notably B.1.1.33 (78). The phylogenetic tree revealed that SARS-CoV-2 variants isolated from Bahia were clustered closely together. It is expected that the data collected will help provide a better epidemiological understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic (especially in Bahia), as well as helping to develop more effective vaccines that allow less immunogenic escape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strategy of relying solely on current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to halt SARS-CoV-2 transmission has proven infeasible. In response, many public-health authorities have advocated for using vaccines to limit mortality while permitting unchecked SARS-CoV-2 spread ("learning to live with the disease"). The feasibility of this strategy critically depends on the infection fatality rate (IFR) of SARS-CoV-2. An expectation exists that the IFR will decrease due to selection against virulence. In this work, we perform a viral fitness estimation to examine the basis for this expectation. Our findings suggest large increases in virulence for SARS-CoV-2 would result in minimal loss of transmissibility, implying that the IFR may vary freely under neutral evolutionary drift. We use an SEIRS model framework to examine the effect of hypothetical changes in the IFR on steady-state death tolls under COVID-19 endemicity. Our modeling suggests that endemic SARS-CoV-2 implies vast transmission resulting in yearly US COVID-19 death tolls numbering in the hundreds of thousands under many plausible scenarios, with even modest increases in the IFR leading to unsustainable mortality burdens. Our findings highlight the importance of enacting a concerted strategy and continued development of biomedical interventions to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmission and slow its evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When confronted with a public health emergency, significant innovative treatment protocols can sometimes be discovered by medical doctors at the front lines based on repurposed medications. We propose a statistical framework for analyzing the case series of patients treated with such new protocols, that enables a comparison with our prior knowledge of expected outcomes, in the absence of treatment. The goal of the proposed methodology is not to provide a precise measurement of treatment efficacy, but to establish the existence of treatment efficacy, in order to facilitate the binary decision of whether the treatment protocol should be adopted on an emergency basis. The methodology consists of a frequentist component that compares a treatment group against the probability of an adverse outcome in the absence of treatment, and calculates an efficacy threshold that has to be exceeded by this probability, in order to control the corresponding p-value and reject the null hypothesis. The efficacy threshold is further adjusted with a Bayesian technique, in order to also control the false positive rate. A random selection bias threshold is then calculated from the efficacy threshold to control for random selection bias. Exceeding the efficacy threshold establishes the existence of treatment efficacy by the preponderance of evidence, and exceeding the more demanding random selection bias threshold establishes the existence of treatment efficacy by the clear and convincing evidentiary standard. The combined techniques are applied to case series of high-risk COVID-19 outpatients that were treated using the early Zelenko protocol and the more enhanced McCullough protocol. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]