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In the warming Arctic, retrogressive thaw slumping (RTS) has emerged as the primary thermokarst modifier of ice-rich permafrost slopes, raising urgency to investigate the distribution and intensification of disturbances and the cascade of effects. Tracking RTS is challenging due to the constraints of remote sensing products and a narrow understanding of complex, thaw-driven landforms; however, high-resolution elevation models provide new insights into geomorphic change. Structural traits, such as RTS depth of thaw or volume, can be obtained through allometric scaling. To address fundamental knowledge gaps related to area–volume scaling of RTS, a suitable surface interpolation technique was first needed to model pre-disturbance topography upon which volume estimates could be based. Among eight methods with 32 parameterizations, natural neighbour surface interpolation achieved the best precision in reconstructing pre-disturbed slope topography (90th percentile root mean square difference ±1.0 m). An inverse association between RTS volume and relative volumetric error was observed, with uncertainties < 10 % for large slumps and < 20 % for small to medium slumps. Second, a multisource slump inventory (MSI) for two study areas in the Beaufort Delta (Canada) region was developed to characterize the diverse range of disturbance morphologies and activity levels, which provided consistent characterization of thaw-slump-affected slopes between regions and through time. The MSI delineation of high-resolution hillshade digital elevation models (DEMs) for three time periods (airborne stereo-imagery, lidar, ArcticDEM) revealed temporal and spatial trends in these chronic mass-wasting features. For example, in the Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, a + 38 % increase in active RTS counts and + 69 % increase in total active surface area were observed between 2004 and 2016. However, the total disturbance area of RTS-affected terrain did not change considerably (+ 3.5 %) because the vast majority of active thaw slumping processes occurred in association with past disturbances. Interpretation of thaw-driven change is thus dependent on how active RTS is defined to support disturbance inventories. Our results highlight that active RTS is tightly linked to past disturbances, underscoring the importance of inventorying inactive scar areas. Third, the pre-disturbance topographies, MSI digitizations, and DEMs were integrated to explore allometric scaling relationships between RTS area and eroded volume. The power-law model indicated non-linearity in the rates of RTS expansion and intensification across scales (adj- R2 of 0.85, n= 1522) but also revealed that elongated, shoreline RTS reflects outliers poorly represented by the modelling. These results indicate that variation in the allometric scaling of RTS populations is based on morphometry, terrain position, and complexity of the disturbance area, as well as the method and ontology by which slumps are inventoried. This study highlights the importance of linking field-based knowledge to feature identification and the utility of high-resolution DEMs in quantifying rates of RTS erosion beyond tracking changes in the planimetric area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensification of thaw-driven mass wasting is transforming glacially conditioned permafrost terrain, coupling slopes with aquatic systems, and triggering a cascade of downstream effects. Within the context of recent, rapidly evolving climate controls on the geomorphology of permafrost terrain, we (A) quantify three-dimensional retrogressive thaw slump enlargement and describe the processes and thresholds coupling slopes to downstream systems, (B) investigate catchment-scale patterns of slope thermokarst impacts and the geomorphic implications, and (C) map the propagation of effects through hydrological networks draining permafrost terrain of northwestern Canada. Power-law relationships between retrogressive thaw slump area and volume (R2=0.90) , as well as the thickness of permafrost thawed (R2=0.63), combined with the multi-decadal (1986–2018) increase in the areal extent of thaw slump disturbance, show a 2 order of magnitude increase in catchment-scale geomorphic activity and the coupling of slope and hydrological systems. Predominant effects are to first- and second-order streams where sediment delivery, often indicated by formation of recent debris tongue deposits, commonly exceeds the transport capacity of headwater streams by orders of magnitude, signaling centennial- to millennial-scale perturbation of downstream systems. Assessment of hydrological networks indicates that thaw-driven mass wasting directly affects over 5538 km of stream segments, 889 km of coastline, and 1379 lakes in the 994 860 km2 study area. Downstream propagation of slope thermokarst indicates a potential increase in the number of affected lakes by at least a factor of 4 (n>5692) and impacted stream length by a factor of 8 (>44343 km), and it defines several major impact zones on lakes, deltas, and coastal areas. Prince of Wales Strait is the receiving marine environment for greatly increased sediment and geochemical fluxes from numerous slump-impacted hydrological networks draining Banks Island and Victoria Island. The Peel and Mackenzie rivers are globally significant conveyors of the slope thermokarst cascade, delivering effects to North America's largest Arctic delta and the Beaufort Sea. Climate-driven erosion of ice-rich slopes in permafrost-preserved glaciated terrain has triggered a time-transient cascade of downstream effects that signal the rejuvenation of post-glacial landscape evolution. Glacial legacy, ground-ice conditions, and continental drainage patterns dictate that terrestrial, freshwater, coastal, and marine environments of western Arctic Canada will be an interconnected hotspot of thaw-driven change through the coming millennia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]