1. Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Risk-Prediction Model for 30-Day Readmission for Heart Failure Following Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement (TAVR-HF Score).
- Author
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Zahid S, Agrawal A, Salman F, Khan MZ, Ullah W, Teebi A, Khan SU, Sulaiman S, and Balla S
- Subjects
- Humans, Patient Readmission, Risk Factors, Treatment Outcome, Electrolytes, Aortic Valve surgery, Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement adverse effects, Aortic Valve Stenosis surgery, Atrial Fibrillation surgery, Heart Failure epidemiology, Heart Failure therapy, Heart Failure etiology, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic
- Abstract
Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is the treatment of choice for patients with severe aortic stenosis across the spectrum of surgical risk. About one-third of 30-day readmissions following TAVR are related to heart failure (HF). Hence, we aim to develop an easy-to-use clinical predictive model to identify patients at risk for HF readmission. We used data from the National Readmission Database (2015-2018) utilizing ICD-10 codes to identify TAVR procedures. Readmission was defined as the first unplanned HF readmission within 30-day of discharge. A machine learning framework was used to develop a 30-day TAVR-HF readmission score. The receiver operator characteristic curve was used to evaluate the predictive power of the model. A total of 92,363 cases of TAVR were included in the analysis. Of the included patients, 3299 (3.6%) were readmitted within 30 days of discharge with HF. Individuals who got readmitted, vs those without readmission, had more emergent admissions during index procedure (33.4% vs 19.8%), electrolyte abnormalities (38% vs 16.7%), chronic kidney disease (34.8% vs 21.2%), and atrial fibrillation (60.1% vs 40.7%). Candidate variables were ranked by importance using a parsimony plot. A total of 7 variables were selected based on predictive ability as well as clinical relevance: HF with reduced ejection fraction (25 points), HF preserved EF (20 points), electrolyte abnormalities (17 points), atrial fibrillation (12 points), Charlson comorbidity index (<6 = 0, 6-8 = 9, 9-10 = 13, >10 = 14 points), chronic kidney disease (7 points), and emergent index admission (5 points). On performance evaluation using the testing dataset, an area under the curve of 0.761 (95% CI 0.744-0.778) was achieved. Thirty-day TAVR-HF readmission score is an easy-to-use risk prediction tool. The score can be incorporated into electronic health record systems to identify at-risk individuals for readmissions with HF following TAVR. However, further external validation studies are needed., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.)
- Published
- 2024
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