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The EU and its Member States have taken unprecedented collective steps to support Ukraine militarily. That has not yet translated into a stronger momentum to further cooperation between their own defence forces, however. Ideally, Member States would integrate national capabilities into large multinational formations. NATO's New Force Model could provide an extra stimulus to that end. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the 2014 Wales Summit, the NATO allies pledged to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defence by 2024. While some allies are on track to meet the 2% target, others only modestly augmented their military expenditures and still others have even reduced their defence budgets. This article aims to explain the diverging trajectories of the allies' military expenditures during the first five years after the Wales Summit. More specifically, it introduces an integrated burden sharing model, which is tested with generalized set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. The results of the analysis indicate that the threat posed by Russia provided the most important incentive for increasing defence budgets. However, general budget constraints kept some allies from increasing their defence budget in proportion to the threat posed by Russia. Conversely, in the absence of budget constraints, allies governed by a right-leaning executive made intermediate budget efforts even if they only faced a low level of threat. Strikingly, budget inertia only had a modest impact on the allies' defence budgets, only resulting in a low level of spending in allies that were not threatened by Russia and either faced considerable budget constraints or were governed by a left-wing government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last decades, Brazil has become a regional military and economic power in South America, accounting in 2017 for the largest defence budget in the region, the eleventh defence expenditure in the world, and almost 60% of South American GDP. The enactment of the National Defence Policy resulted in an increase in defence expenditure in Brazil that was primarily focused on developing and buying modern equipment and paying better salaries. The policy was implemented during three investment cycles that began with off-the-shelf acquisitions and moved to the execution of defence programmes aiming to develop indigenous technologies, substituting imports on the way. Despite the effort, we argue that the most likely scenario is that the achievement of the vision established in the National Defence Policy will be compromised, and that constant delays caused by the expenditure constraints might result in the delivery of outdated technologies and weapon systems, keeping a never-ending technological gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses neutrality as a changing concept in international relations; the origin and characteristics of Serbia's military neutrality; as well as the country's general economic background and its defence spending. The paper also compares Serbian defence expenditure with the defence expenditure of the European members of the North American Treaty Organisation (NATO), members of the Eurasian and Russia-based Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and traditionally neutral countries in Europe. The paper explores how Serbia's current policy of military neutrality, while maintaining operational links with other military organisations in Europe, has had a positive impact on the Serbian economy in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the 'incremental/fair share model' that was proposed by Alex Mintz in 1988 concerning the budget allocation of the U.S. Department of Defense. Although Mintz was unable to confirm the correctness of his model, this study demonstrated it to be statistically significant. In the statistical analyses, I used the two-stage least squares method and Durbin's h-test to better scrutinize the model's adequacy. Few previous studies have addressed the allocation of the U.S. defence budget; consequently, the incremental/fair-share model should constitute a starting point for further research on the U.S. defence budget allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to build a simple indicator of state power. Military expenditure is the paper's point of departure, with the definitions given by NATO, SIPRI and others. This definition is discussed and a power version is build, using French budgetary data. Then a defence of the result against traditional or non-traditional critics is presented under an imperative of action. Finally, this concept is enlarged and a new concept of power expenditures is given, one more time using French budgetary data. The conclusion is that this large expenditure concept is an unbiased but imperfect indicator of the will to act, and has to be completed by GDP to indicate the capability to act in the long-run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buying off the shelf procurements (OTS) has become an important part of the national acquisition strategy in several countries, and this paper seeks to bring empirical evidence on OTS as the preferred acquisition strategy by use of data from 2015 to 2022 investment portfolio of the Norwegian Armed Forces. We develop definitions for three categories of procurement - OTS, modified OTS and development projects - as well as a method to classify projects into these categories. Our first finding is that the characteristics of OTS projects correspond to modified OTS and development projects. Our second finding indicates that OTS projects perform better when it comes to the completion of projects according to the initial schedule, compared to development projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines military expenditure and defence policy in Norway from 1970 to 2013. Until 1990 Norwegian military expenditure remained between 2.5 and 3.0 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Despite constant GDP shares, the military expenditure could not sustain a large and properly armed mobilization army. The constant nominal defence budgets of the 1990s accentuated the Norwegian Armed Forces' underlying imbalance between tasks, structure and budget. Around year 2000, large organizational reforms were effectuated, in which costs, the number of man-years, and underlying imbalances between tasks, structure and budget were reduced. Military expenditure increased in nominal terms between 2003 and 2013, while real military expenditure remained practically constant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents an overview of literature and previous estimates of defence specific investment cost escalation (ICE). ICE, the cost increase between two generations of a weapon system, can place a heavy strain on defence budgets if not properly accounted for. Previous literature specifically pinpoints the competition element as the main driver behind ICE. This article also discusses the role of technology and of supply and demand. Finally, we provide more recent estimates of ICE, using more sophisticated methods than those previously used. Results indicate that ICE estimates are reduced when changes in weapon system characteristics are accounted for. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In the past, national security for the majority of countries was almost exclusively associated with an external military threat emanating from a rival state(s). This was reflected in the standard models for the demand for military expenditure. The emergence of new security challenges such as terrorism, transnational crime networks, failed and rogue states, has profoundly affected the international security environment and the concept of national security. This note develops a model for the demand for national security expenditure adopting a broader, more inclusive definition of national security and includes concomitant budgetary outlets to meet the new security challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the pattern of expenditures for national security of the Netherlands from 1990 until 2009. In 1990, military spending amounted to 2.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In 2009, almost two decades later, this ratio dropped by more than a full percent. During this period, the reduction of funds available for national security was in concurrence with the Dutch government’s spending policies. The Netherlands Armed Forces (NAF) changed dramatically in terms of capabilities, size, equipment and personnel in this two-decade time span. Our investigative results indicate that in spite of this transition, no significant changes have been implemented since 1990 in how the Dutch defence budget is allocated for the Navy, Army and Air Force. Furthermore, the mix of expenditures for salaries, operations and maintenance, as well as those for capital investment, stayed roughly the same for the duration of the period studied. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study uses the Feder-Ram model in conjunction with the military Keynesian model to examine the nexus between defence spending and economic growth in Sri Lanka. We find that the Keynesian aggregate demand model is better suited to analyse the link than the Feder-Ram model for the case of Sri Lanka. Based upon our results we expect a higher economic growth rate in Sri Lanka if more public resources are diverted from the defence to civilian sectors of the economy, now that the war between the government and separatist guerrillas has come to an end. However, recent post war events cast doubt upon whether a diversion of sources from military to non-military spending will actually occur. We conclude that the sanguine predictions of our economic analysis are entirely dependent upon the political decisions of the Sri Lankan government for their realization. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

What is the case for defence and is it a worthwhile investment? This question is addressed for two contrasting nations, namely, the UK and New Zealand. Economists have a set of standard analytical tools for addressing the question but they are difficult to operationalise. This paper provides policy-relevant answers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the determinants of the number of military personnel, military expenditure and arms imports using a panel data of all available countries with data from 1984-2006. The number of military personnel increases with the extent of external threat and with conscription. There is evidence for both economies of scale and the existence of 'ghost soldiers'. Expenditure, given the number of military personnel, increases with the extent of internal threat and the area of the country. Arms imports increase with the extent of external threat, GDP per capita and corruption. Finally, both arms imports and military expenditure impact upon corruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine alliances between asymmetric countries. We find that the results depend on the nature of the equilibrium. If the equilibrium is an interior one then, with an increase in asymmetry, the level of the alliance-wide defense good decreases and the divergence between the first best and the equilibrium level of the defense good increases. In the case where the equilibrium involves a corner solution, these results are reversed. It may be argued, however, that the interior equilibrium case is the more relevant one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the transformation aspects of Strategy 2020 with particular emphasis on the budget allocation options available to move the Canadian Forces towards an RMA capable force structure. The results of the research indicate that a significant budget increase above the expected rate of inflation will be required. The research has shown that an optimistic set of assumptions would require the defence budget to almost double to $23.9 billion by the year 2020, while a worst case scenario could require a defence budget as high as $30 billion by 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The causal relationship between defence expenditures and external debt is investigated by applying a multivariate model. Our estimation results indicate that defence expenditures and external debt for Turkey are cointegrated. To test for Granger causality in the presence of cointegration between variables, we employ a vector error correction model. Empirical results for Turkey over the period 1955–2000 suggest a long run and short run unidirectional causality running from defence expenditures to external debt but not vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates a series of unit root, cointegration and causality tests to ascertain the direction of causality between the growth of GNP and defence expenditure in Turkey for the years 1955-2000. The main conclusion is that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between GNP and defence expenditures. Furthermore, the short run causality test indicates that there is a unidirectional causality between variables, from defence expenditure to economic growth. In order to see the effect of a shock, we employed impulse response analyses. The results show that GNP decreased during the period then output finally recovered from the initial shock to defence expenditures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turkey has been undergoing a severe economic crisis recently. Despite its low standing in terms of basic economic and welfare indicators, Turkey has been leading in arms imports. The pressing issues of macroeconomic imbalances are budget deficits, current account deficits and external debt burden. Previous work on the trade-off between defence and growth and between defence and budget deficits concludes that the presence of such trade-offs is not confirmed. As budget deficits are financed through internal and external debt, this paper attempts to explore to what extent defence might be contributing to Turkey's current account deficits and external indebtedness since the 1980s. Related data problems are also assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is intrinsic to the nature of military competition that the unit acquisition costs of defence systems rise generation by generation. Traditional "bottom-up" methods of cost-estimating cannot meet the increasing demands for extensive studies of many options before commencing design and, while "top-down" estimating techniques are an improvement, in particular by reducing the time required for preparing estimates, they also are inadequate to meet current requirements. A new method has been devised, therefore, further developing "top-down" methods using Bayesian techniques to make best use of the available information, whether certain or uncertain, and its accuracy established by example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]