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BACKGROUND: Although the Chinese education system has seen massive improvements over the past few decades, there are still large academic achievement gaps between rural and urban areas that threaten China's long-term development. In addition, recent literature underscores the importance of early childhood development (ECD) in later-life human capital development. OBJECTIVES: We analyze the life cycle of cognitive development and learning outcomes in rural Chinese children by first exploring whether ECD outcomes affect cognition levels, then determining whether cognitive delays persist as children grow, and finally examining connections between cognition and education outcomes. METHODS: We combine data from four recent studies that examine different age groups (0-3, 4-5, 10-11, 13-14) to track cognitive outcomes. RESULTS: First, we find that ECD outcomes for children in rural China are poor, with almost one in two children who are cognitively delayed. Second, we find that these cognitive delays seem to persist into middle school, with almost 37% of rural junior high school students who are cognitively delayed. Finally, we show that cognition has a close relationship to academic achievement. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that urban-rural gaps in academic achievement originate at least in part from differences in ECD outcomes. CONTRIBUTIONS: Although many papers have analyzed ECD, human capital, and inequality separately, this is the first paper to explicitly connect and combine these topics to analyze the life cycle of cognitive development in the context of rural China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: The US life expectancy has been stagnating in recent decades, and along with this, the time trends of life span variation have shown stagnation and even increases with respect to historical levels. OBJECTIVE: We aim to disentangle contributions from subnational levels (US regions) to national changes in life expectancy and life span variation in 2010-2019 and 2019-2020. METHODS: A decomposition of the change in the national life expectancy and life disparity into the contribution of changing mortality and population structure among subnational regions is presented. The US Census regions are the Midwest, Northeast, South, and West. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2019, the South substantially contributed to the life span variation increase due to increasing mortality contributions. The old-age survival improvements across all regions further contributed to increasing life span variation at the national level. Different population growth patterns across regions, especially at older ages, are a further source of change in national life span variation and life expectancy. From 2019 to 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, an increase in life span variation and a decrease in life expectancy across all regions were observed. CONTRIBUTION: We present continuous-time decompositions for changes in life expectancy and life span variation. When decomposing subnational contributions to national changes, we also demonstrate the role of the composition effect through subnational-national growth differences. This paper quantifies and highlights the specific contributions of regions and age groups to the national mortality increase in the United States between 2010 and 2019, as well as between 2019 and 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND The UN Replacement Migration report (2000) had a significant impact in academic and civil society. Its approach consisted of estimating the migration volumes required to mitigate the effects of population decline and ageing. The volume of migrants required to prevent population decline and sustain the working-age population was not particularly high, but the vast number of migrants needed to maintain the potential support ratio was highlighted as an unrealistic goal. OBJECTIVES In this paper the UN exercise is revisited and updated by deploying the concept of prospective age to overcome a strict chronological definition of the working-age population. The replacement migration approach is developed from a new European perspective, the temporal series is extended for an additional decade, and alternative operative age-group definitions are compared by projecting replacement migration estimations according to both classic (conventional) and dynamic (prospective) age limits. CONCLUSIONS The key conclusions of the original UN publication are reasserted. In many countries the replacement migration volumes needed to sustain the decline in total population and working-age population are of an order of magnitude similar to recent observed migration. However, even under the prospective-age approach the halt of the ageing process - expressed as the maintenance of the current potential support ratio - remains an unrealistic target. CONTRIBUTION We propose the deployment of the prospective-age concept to define dynamic age limits in the definition of working-age population. Because the prospective-age concept is flexible it will be possible to explore other dimensions from this perspective in the future, increasing the analytical potential of replacement migration estimations as a valuable contribution to the demographic ageing debate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND Fertility stalls have been observed in numerous African and Middle Eastern countries. From the late 1990s until 2011 the fertility transition in Jordan was stalled, with the total fertility rate (TFR) well above replacement level. OBJECTIVE This paper demonstrates a resumption of fertility decline in Jordan since 2012 and investigates the background and proximate determinants behind the decline. METHODS Fertility trends among Jordanians are analyzed using the Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey (JLMPS) 2010 and 2016 waves and the Jordan Population and Family Health Survey (JPFHS) 2002 to 2017/2018 rounds. We estimate age-specific and total fertility rates over time and conduct a proximate-determinants decomposition. We also examine the evolution of fertility by age, education, and parity, testing for meaningful changes over time in a multivariate framework. RESULTS Fertility among Jordanians declined from a TFR of 3.8 in 2009/2010 to 3.3 in JLMPS 2016 and 2.6 in JPFHS 2017/2018. Vital statistics data are more consistent with the JLMPS estimate. Declines in fertility occurred across age groups and education levels and have parity-specific components. The proximate-determinants decomposition does not identify a clear driver of resumed fertility decline. Age at marriage increased steadily but slowly over time, yet contraceptive use among currently married women declined over time. The ideal number of children decreased less than observed fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an extension of the standard parameterized model migration schedule to account for highly age-concentrated student migration. Many age profiles of regional migration are characterized by sudden 'spiked' increases in migration intensities in the late teenage years, which are related to leaving school, and, in particular, to entry into higher education. The standard model schedule does not appear to be effective in describing the pattern at these ages. This paper therefore proposes an extension of the standard model through the addition of a student curve. The paper also describes a relatively simple Microsoft Excel-based fitting procedure. By way of illustration, both student peak and standard model schedules are fitted to the age patterns of internal migration for two Australian regions that experience substantial student migration. The student peak schedule is shown to provide an improved model of these migration age profiles. Illustrative population projections are presented to demonstrate the differences that result when model migration schedules with and without student peaks are used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND Although there is a lot of research analyzing the distribution and pluralization of living arrangements, only a few studies have focused on the partnership forms of the oldest old population. In particular, very little is known about the prevalence of 'living-aparttogether' (LAT) relationships in this age group. OBJECTIVE This study examines the extent of coresidential partnerships and LAT relationships among the population aged 80 years and older in the most populated German state, North Rhine-Westphalia. METHODS We use cross-sectional data from the 2016-2018 survey Quality of Life and Subjective Well-Being of the Very Old in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW80+). The representative sample contains 1,863 individuals aged 80 years or older, including 211 nursing home residents. We present descriptive statistics considering differences in gender, age, and marital status. RESULTS The average share of LAT relationships among old-age partnerships is 13.3%. While the share of partnerships is declining among the oldest old individuals from the age of 80 years onward, the proportion of LAT relationships in relation to coresidential partnerships is increasing. Marital unions in which partners do not share a common household turned out to be a prevalent living arrangement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND The burgeoning global multi-ethnic population, in conjunction with the importance of accurate ethnic group counts for research and policy purposes, make classification of multiple ethnic responses a complex but important issue. There are numerous possible classification approaches, differing in ethical implications and ease of statistical application. OBJECTIVE This study empirically examines the validity and consistency of three comparatively accessible ethnic classification methods (total response, administrative-prioritisation, and self-prioritisation) in increasingly ethnically diverse age cohorts (adults, adolescents, and children). METHOD We utilised secondary data from two large-scale studies in Aotearoa/New Zealand which asked children (N = 6,149; responded via mother proxy), adolescents (N = 8,464), and adults (N = 11,210) to select (1) all the ethnicities they identified with, and (2) their main ethnicity. The data were coded, then analysed using descriptive statistics and z-tests for proportional differences. RESULTS The majority of multi-ethnic participants were able to select a main ethnic group when required, but around 20% could not or refused to do so, and there was over 60% discrepancy between self-prioritised ethnicity and administrative-prioritised ethnicity. Differences by age group and ethnic combination were apparent. Comparison of overall ethnic group proportions outputted by the three classification methods revealed withingroup variation, particularly where there were higher rates of multi-ethnic identification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND After a long decline, life expectancy in Russia substantially increased in 2004-2010; this is the longest period of health improvement that has been observed in the country since 1965. This study is the first analysis of this positive trend. OBJECTIVES We seek to determine the causes and age groups that account for the additional years of life gained in 2004-10 and the remaining gap between Russia and Western countries, to assess to what extent these recent trends represent a new development relative to previous mortality fluctuations, and to identify possible explanations for the improvement. METHODS We present an analysis of trends in life expectancy, and in age- and cause-specific mortality in Russia and selected countries in Eastern and Western Europe. We use decomposition techniques to examine the life expectancy rise in 2004-2010 and the Russia-UK life expectancy gap in 2010. RESULTS Like the previous mortality fluctuations that have occurred in Russia since the mid-1980s, the increase in life expectancy was driven by deaths at ages 15 to 60 from alcohol-related causes. Uniquely in the recent period, there were also improvements at older ages, especially in cerebrovascular disease mortality among women. In addition, there were reductions in deaths from avoidable causes, such as from tuberculosis and diabetes. The life expectancy gap between Russia and Western countries remains large, and is mostly attributable to deaths from cardiovascular disease, alcohol-related conditions, and violence. CONCLUSIONS The decrease in alcohol-related mortality may be attributable to measures taken in 2006 to control the production and sale of ethanol. The lower number of cerebrovascular-related deaths may reflect advancements in blood pressure control. The reduction in the number of deaths from tuberculosis and diabetes may be associated with a general improvement in health care. Although the decline in mortality since 2004 has been substantial, the question of whether it can be sustained remains open. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This note provides some earlier history of the relationship given in Formal Relationships 1, "Life left equals life lived in stationary populations," (Goldstein 2009) and shows that while the expectation of life at the mean age of the population is close to the mean age, this is not exactly so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the age- and sex-specific data of 14 developed countries, we compare the point and interval forecast accuracy and bias of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy. The ten methods are variants and extensions of the Lee-Carter method. Based on one-step forecast errors, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point forecasts of mortality rates and the Lee-Miller method is the least biased. For the accuracy and bias of life expectancy, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method performs the best for female mortality and the Lee-Miller method for male mortality. While all methods underestimate variability in mortality rates, the more complex Hyndman-Ullah methods are more accurate than the simpler methods. The weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate interval forecasts for mortality rates, while the robust Hyndman-Ullah method provides the best interval forecast accuracy for life expectancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]