Search

This article examines demographic and economic correlates of functional health among older people in the United States using an important new survey, the Asset and Health Dynamics (AHEAD). AHEAD places equal emphasis on high quality measurement of three life domains required for this research, health, economic status and demographic structure. A central question that researchers address in this paper involves the extent to which the demographic and economic differences that exist among older people account for functional health disparities by gender, by race and by ethnicity. In this paper, researchers examine an important aspect of health during old age, the extent of functional limitations. Because it measures the ability to perform a range of tasks necessary to take care of one's self and one's family, functional status is a particularly relevant health outcome at older ages. The interactive impact of older people's multiple chronic conditions on health is not proxied simply by disease prevalence and severity. Functional status also captures a critical dimension of the ability to live independently in the community, especially with increasing risks for disabling chronic diseases. Finally, functional status is an useful index of the need for assistance that must be provided by family, friends or government programs.

In this paper we examine aggregate patterns and trends in segregation among white (non-Hispanic), black, Hispanic, and Asian public school students in 217 metropolitan areas during the period 1989-1995. We first describe a set of methodological tools that enable us both to measure the mutual segregation among multiple racial groups and to partition total metropolitan-area school segregation into geographic and racial components. Then we use these tools to examine patterns and trends in metropolitan-area school segregation. We find that the average levels of multiracial school segregation have been unchanged from 1989 to 1995, but that this stability masks important shifts in the geographic and racial components making up average levels of total metropolitan school segregation. In particular, segregation between non-Hispanic white students and all other students has increased, on average, while segregation among black, Hispanic, and Asian student groups has declined. In addition, the contribution to average levels of total metropolitan segregation due to between-district segregation has grown, whereas the relative contribution of within-district segregation has declined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Childbearing motivation may be conceptualized as based upon psychological traits and shaped by experiences during childhood, adolescence, and early adult life. This paper explores what those traits and developmental experiences are. Two measures of childbearing motivation, one positive and the other negative, are described. Using a sample of 362 married men and 354 married women, the paper systematically examines the factors associated with these measures. In addition to a set of basic personality traits, these factors include parental characteristics, teenage experiences, and a number of variables from young adult behavior domains such as marriage, education, work, religion, and parental relationships. Stepwise multiple regression analyses lead to two final constrained, simultaneous-equation regression models. These models indicate the importance of both personality traits and diverse life-cycle experiences in the development of childbearing motivation, the differential gender distribution of predictors, and the different experiential antecedents of positive and negative motivation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relation between unmarried cohabitation and three important determinants of fertility-frequency of sexual intercourse, contraceptive practice, and the expectation to have a child within five years. Analyses based on data from the 1982 National Survey of Family Growth show that formerly married cohabitants are similar to married women with respect to these fertility determinants, but that never married cohabitants may have lower fertility in the short run because of extremely high levels of contraceptive practice. The paper also compares self-reported data on cohabitation with an inferred measure based on household composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a method for estimating the size of the Korean American population in communities in the United States. Since about 22 percent of Korean Americans have the surname Kim and the telephone subscription/listing rate for Korean Americans is extremely high, a fairly simple equation for such estimation can be constructed. The number of Kims listed in the published telephone directory for a community, the mean size of the Kim households, the residence telephone subscription! listing rate, and the proportion of Kims are the factors included in the equation. A specific value for each of the factors has been derived from various "unobtrusive" and nongovernmental sources. Only insignificant differences have been found between estimates made using this method and the enumeration figures from the 1980 census for the Korean American population in the New York metropolitan area and Los Angeles and Orange counties. It appears that the equation is effective in estimating the size of the Korean American population in a community and could be a useful instrument in evaluating the accuracy of the 1980 Census enumeration of Korean Americans. The paper also describes the potential utility of Kims listed in published telephone directories as a sampling frame of Korean Americans in the United States. The ideas and procedures presented here can be extended to other ethnic populations with unique surnames, such as Nguyen for the Vietnamese American population and those starting with "Yama" … for the Japanese American population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The central concept of microeconomic theories of fertility is opportunity cost--the product of wife's employment lost due to childbearing and the value of her employment. This paper presents a model for analyzing opportunity cost using panel data. The average loss of employment attributable to a second- or higher-order birth, calculated at around age 2, is over 400 hours per year. This time cost represents an income loss of about $1050 in 1969 dollars. Time cost is independent of such demographic factors as birth order and age of oldest sibling. Neither does time cost depend on husband's wage rate or wife's education or potential wage rate. This indicates that many microeconomic models of fertility have been seriously misspecified. The paper also compares results from static and dynamic models, explores possible problems due to simultaneity bias, investigates the relationship between changes in employment (including time cost) and initial employment level, and identifies the difficulties of theorizing about opportunity cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of women's labor force participation on occupational scores by comparing occupational status scores based on the characteristics of the 1970 male labor force with a set of occupational status scores based on the characteristics of the total 1970 labor force. Although the two sets of scores are highly correlated, important differences are found in the scores for specific occupations as well as for major occupational groups. Using the traditional list of 12 major occupational categories, we find that the positions of clerical workers and craftsmen are reversed when status scores are derived from data on all incumbents in the labor force rather than on male incumbents alone. The paper suggests that, with the increased participation of women in the labor force and the concomitant change in the sex composition of the work force, the traditional approaches to the measurement of occupational status based solely on male incumbents may no longer be valid for examining the occupational hierarchy of contemporary American society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses recent migration to North America with reference to the 1962 and 1967 Canadian immigration regulations and the 1965 United States Immigration and Nationality Act. Despite the similar emphasis on manpower and kinship criteria as the basis for the admission of immigrants, differences between Canada and the United States exist with respect to the importance of immigration for the respective economies, the organization of immigration, the formal regulations, and the size and composition of migrant streams. After an examination of the volume, origin, and occupational composition of immigration to Canada and the United States, flows between the two countries are studied. The paper concludes with a scrutiny of changes in immigration regulations which are pending in both countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether convenient working conditions reduce the constraint of children on married women working. It is assumed that convenient working conditions are most important for women with heavy child-care responsibilities. Therefore, differentials in participation rates, by presence and age of children, are expected to be less pronounced in those occupations where a high proportion of jobs have convenient working conditions. Data are selected from the 1960 1/1000 Public Use Sample of the United States population. Those studied comprise white married women living with their husbands. The paper involves a comparison of differential participation rates of women by presence of children, between occupations grouped according to measures of convenience, using a multivariate analysis. The results indicate that differentials are least pronounced in those occupational groupings which have the highest percentage of convenience factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A study by Donald Pursell (1972), which examines migration data compiled from the one-percent sample file of the Social Security Ad- ministration, is discussed in this paper. An important feature of the data which is neglected by Pursell is pointed out, and the Pursell results are compared with findings obtained using somewhat different treatments of the social security data. The Pursell conclusion that out-migration is negatively related to employment growth is supported by the alternative tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many scholars have offered structural and ideational explanations for the fertility changes occurring around the world. This paper focuses on the influence of developmental idealism-a schema or set of beliefs endorsing development, fertility change, and causal connections between development and fertility. Developmental idealism is argued to be an important force affecting both population policy and the fertility behavior of ordinary people. We present new survey data from ordinary people in six countries-Argentina, China, Egypt, Iran, Nepal, and the United States-about the extent to which developmental idealism is known and believed. We ask individuals if they believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development is a causal force in changing fertility levels, and that fertility declines enhance the standard of living and intergenerational relations. We also ask people about their expectations concerning future trends in fertility in their countries and whether they approve or disapprove of the trends they expect. The data show widespread linkage in the minds of ordinary people between fertility and development. Large fractions of people in these six settings believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development reduces fertility, and that declines in fertility foster development. Many also expect and endorse future declines in fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I investigate the impact of recent immigration on males' earnings distributions in the major regions of the United States. I use six counterfactual scenarios to describe alternative regional skill distributions and wage structures for the population of natives and long-term immigrants in the absence of recent immigration. I find that immigration over the last three decades can account for a substantial portion of the variation in inequality across the regions. Recent immigration has contributed moderately to national growth in males' earnings inequality, primarily by changing the composition of the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Official Medicare projections forecast that the elderly population will be less healthy and more costly over the next century. This prediction stems from the use of age as an indicator of health status: increases in longevity are assumed to increase demand for health care as individuals survive to older and higher-use ages. In this paper I suggest an alternative approach, in which time until death replaces age as the demographic indicator of health status. Increases in longevity are assumed to postpone the higher Medicare use and costs associated with the final decade of life. I contrast the two approaches, using mortality forecasts consistent with recent projections from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Social Security Administration. The time-until-death method yields significantly lower-cost forecasts. The hypothetical cost savings from improved health care small, however, relative to the size of the Medicare solvency problem caused by population aging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to investigate the empirical link between unintended pregnancy and child health and development. An important contribution of our study is the use of information on siblings to control for unmeasured factors that may confound estimates of the effect of pregnancy intentions on infant and child outcomes. Results from our study indicate that unwanted pregnancy is associated with prenatal and postpartum maternal behaviors that adversely affect infant and child health, but that unwanted pregnancy has little association with birth weight and child cognitive outcomes. Estimates of the association between unwanted pregnancy and maternal behaviors were greatly reduced after controls for unmeasured family background were included in the model. Our results also indicate that there are no significant differences in maternal behaviors or child outcomes between mistimed and wanted pregnancies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the influence of the projected mortality decline on the long run finances of the U.S. social security system and presents a comparative statistics of mortality decline. In this paper researchers focus on the influence of mortality decline on the long run finances of the social security system, excluding Medicare. The paper is divided into three parts. The first part develops an analytic approach for deriving comparative static effects of different mortality levels. Researchers begin with general discussions of the effect of mortality decline on the demographic life cycle across stable populations and then of the effect of mortality decline on the economic life cycle across stable populations. This leads to an estimate of the present value of adjustments that must be made in an individual's consumption or labor earnings to provide for the additional years of life gained through reductions in mortality. Researchers then use the same analytic approach to consider the effects of life expectancy gains on finances of the social security system across steady states.

The article presents a paper that evaluates the quality of vital statistics and census data for estimating African-American mortality. Demographers are certain that a serious difficulty in estimating African-American mortality levels results from age misreporting, especially at the older ages. The seriousness of this problem was revealed clearly in a direct matching of 1960 death certificates to records from the 1960 Census of Population. In only 44.7% of nonwhite male and 36.9% of nonwhite female matched cases was the same year of age reported in the census as on the death certificate. So, in the paper, the investigators have employed intercensal cohort comparisons and extinct generation estimates to demonstrate that conventionally constructed African-American death rates may be seriously flawed as early as age 50. Using the crude death rate at ages 50 + for 1978-1982 in conjunction with estimated growth rates and two model life table systems, the investigators have estimated black age-specific death rates in 1978-1982. The results suggest that if a racial crossover in death rates occurs, the age pattern of mortality among African-Americans must be far outside the range observed in populations with more accurate data.

A sustained regime of low fertility plus immigration yields an unusual kind of stationary population. The author demonstrates that all stationary populations have a common structure, and that the familiar replacement-level fertility population is the youngest among the many stationary populations corresponding to a particular life table. This finding has important consequences for policy because although fertility increase and immigration are equally effective at halting population decline, immigration is inferior as a means of rejuvenating low-fertility populations. In fact, an immigration-based policy could make a low-fertility population older rather than younger. The paper includes examples using U.S. and West German vital rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I use data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics to examine the relationship between the dependent exemption feature of the United States federal income tax (an unambiguous subsidy to dependents) and the fertility behavior of married couples over the period 1979-1983. The exemption decreases the price of a child to a household, thus having a direct relationship to the timing and/or number of children observed in a family. Conditional logit results support this hypothesis by showing that the exemption has a positive and significant impact on the likelihood of having a birth during the period under study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper measures the extent to which recent increases in the aggregate poverty rate are attributable to the changing distribution of employment across industries. We decompose the total poverty rate change over the 1976-1983 period into components attributable to changes in employment shares and changes in the incidence of poverty within industries. Our results show that the poverty rate increase resulted primarily from the decline in employment rates in general and from increases in the incidence of poverty within all industries, rather than from the shift of employment opportunities between sectors. The growth of service sector employment in particular has not contributed to the increased incidence of poverty in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we have traced changes in the patterns of first marriage in the United States for cohorts of men and women born in 1880 through 1965 and for the years from 1900 through 1983. There were striking changes in marriage rates associated with each of the world wars and with the depression of the 1930s. In addition to these short-term fluctuations, a long-term shift in marriage rates is observed over the period from after World War II until about 1970. By the end of the 1970s, however, marriage rates had returned to levels similar to those observed before the war. The basic similarity in the timing of changes in marriage rates across age levels and for both men and women, blacks and whites, is a striking characteristic of these marriage curves. There are also, however, important differences among these groups with respect to the magnitude and slopes of the shifts. The postwar marriage boom was strongest among the young (those under age 24) and among whites. Similarly, the declines in marriage rates observed in the 1970s were greatest among the young. The marriage rates for teenagers display trends that diverge in many respects from those of older persons. For example, the marriage rates of male teenagers did not show the "peaks" and "valley" associated with World War II for older age groups and female teenagers. Moreover, there is little sign of the postwar marriage boom among black teenagers of either sex. Indeed, the marriage rates of black teenagers began to decline soon after the war, and by the 1970s the marriage rates of both male and female black teenagers had fallen below those of their white counterparts, reversing the pattern that had existed through the first half of this century. During the twenty-five or so years of the postwar marriage boom, which we believe can be characterized best as a period phenomenon, there were trends-eddies within the mainstream-which are probably most easily interpreted as the consequence of a cohort effect.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the postwar pattern of seasonality of births, for the United States and its divisions, using a simple time-varying parameter model. Variations over time and over space in seasonality are analyzed. In general, the South exhibits the greatest seasonal variation, and the most dramatic changes in seasonality. In later sections the hypothesis that the spread of air conditioning is responsible for the postwar changes in seasonality is tested, and a link between hormones and seasonality is speculated upon. A final section has a short summary and several questions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a relative cohort size model of suicide. The model states that as relative cohort size (the ratio of younger to older workers) rises, income and income aspirations diverge for the young. One possible extreme reaction to this disequilibrium is suicide. The model explains the variation in age- and sex-specific suicide rates for the United States over the period 1948 to 1976. It identifies the direct effect of changes in cohort size on suicide rates as well as the indirect effect operating through other demographic variables. The model predicts the suicide rates for males above 45 years of age to rise and those for all other groups to decline. For most groups this is a reversal of recent movements in their suicide rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise in the proportion of single persons living alone in the United States over the last several decades has been explained in two ways. A consumer demand explanation suggests that increases in income and the ability of persons to afford the desired privacy and autonomy of single person households account for the rise. An alternative explanation suggests that norms, residence rules, and tastes have become more supportive of nonfamilial living arrangements in post-industrial societies and that the proportion of persons living alone would have increased substantially even if income had not risen. Previous evidence for these explanations comes from cross-sectional or aggregate data; this paper tests alternative predictions of the explanations using individual-level survey data from three time points-1960, 1970, and 1976. In contrast to predictions of the consumer demand explanation, the results show that major increases in the proportion of single persons living alone are unexplained by increases in income and other individual-level characteristics of respondents. Although the effect of income on living alone has been constant over time, the existence of significant additive effects of time is consistent with alternative explanations of structural changes in propensity to live alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many theories of geographic mobility assume that the change-of-residence process includes a substantial degree of choice. This paper classifies stated reasons for moving from the 1973 through 1977 Annual Housing Survey into forced, imposed, and preference-dominated categories. About 25 percent of residential mobility and 40 percent of migration occurred under conditions of substantial constraint. Mobility was most often constrained by family dynamics; for migration, occupational relocations frequently imposed the decision-to-move process and determined destinations. The volume of constrained movement indicates that its impact upon individuals, population dynamics, and voluntaristic theories of mobility deserves greater consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes cross-cohort trends in the age pattern of women at first birth in the United States. The analysis involves fitting the Coale-McNeil marriage model to the age distribution of first birth frequencies for a number of recent white and nonwhite cohorts. Methodologically, the results (a) provide support for the application of the Coale-McNeil marriage model to first birth data, and (b) demonstrate the ability of the model to accurately project first birth fertility for cohorts which have yet to complete their childbearing years. Substantively the results indicate (a) that the proportion of women who will never have a first birth is increasing across cohorts and can be expected to be as high as .25 and .20 for recent white and nonwhite cohorts respectively; (b) that recent nonwhite cohorts have an appreciable number of first births at earlier ages than their white counterparts, as well as a lower mean age at first birth and increasingly less dispersion (across cohorts) in their age at first birth; and (c) that the mean age at first birth and the proportion of first births occurring between ages 25 and 34 is increasing across cohorts of white women but is stable across cohorts of nonwhite women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the causes of the rapid decline in the infant mortality rate in the United States in the period after 1963. The roles of four public policies are considered: Medicaid, subsidized family planning services for low-income women, maternal and infant care projects, and the legalization of abortion. The most striking finding is that the increase in the legal abortion rate is the single most important factor in reductions in both white and nonwhite neonatal mortality rates. Not only does the growth in abortion dominate the other public policies, but it also dominates schooling and poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent work with samples of black and white urban American women showed a clear behavioral sequence relating age at menarche to age at first intercourse to age at first birth. This paper shows that the linking of ages at menarche, intercourse, marriage, and first birth is a pattern which occurs in very diverse cultures. We present confirmatory data from the United States, Belgium, and Pakistan, and from Malay and Chinese women in Malaysia. We interpret our findings as indicating a biological process leading to (a) social interpretations of readiness for reproduction, and (b) persisting biological differences between early and late maturing women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines determinants of timing of marriage for young women by modeling the transition from the single to the married state by age. This approach, combined with a large longitudinal data set, allows us to disaggregate the analysis into fine age groupings and to include situational and attitudinal factors in our model. We find that those characteristics of a young woman's parental family that reflect the availability of parental resources tend to decrease the chances of a marriage during the early teens. Chances of marrying appear to decrease with increases in the availability and attractiveness of alternatives to the wife role and in the costs of assuming it. We discuss these results from the perspective of the societal and parental normative pressures which affect timing of marriage for young women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While births may be dichotomous, fertility intentions are not inherently so. Intentions are predictions about the future and, as such, are couched in considerable uncertainty. Ignoring this uncertainty hides much of what could be learned from data on fertility intentions. This paper presents a model which allows analysis of the full range of intentions. This paper presents a model which allows analysis of the full range of intentions. After selecting a sample of women in the later stage of childbearing (e.g., those who intend fewer than two additional children) from the 1965 and 1970 National Fertility Studies, it is shown that: (1) substantial portions of women at this stage of the reproductive life cycle were indeed uncertain of their parity-specific intention; (2) this certainty, like more firm intentions, varies by age and parity as the model predicts; and (3) there were significant shifts in the level of certainty between 1965 and 1970. Specifically, while intentions for third, fourth, and fifth births declined, more women "didn't know" if they intended to have another child or not. Among those not intending another child, more seemed uncertain of this intention in 1970 than did comparable women in 1965. In contrast, those intending another child seemed more certain. These changes in intention and uncertainty indicate that the observed decline in intended parity was tentative. Post-1970 evidence suggests that this tentative decline has become an equivocal one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the role of size of place residential preference in the evolution of the intention to move out of the present community using data from the March 1974 NORC Amalgam Survey. People who prefer to live in a community having different size or location characteristics than their present residence are five times more likely to intend to move than those who have attained their preferred type of residence. Within these two groups, however, the particular configuration of current and preferred residence has no significant effect on the likelihood of intending to move. This finding justifies the creation of a simple dichotomous variable, preference status, contrasting these two groups. Community satisfaction and preference status are highly interrelated and each has an independent effect on intentions to move. Moreover, the effect of preference status on mobility intentions is somewhat larger than that for community satisfaction, indicating that residential preference plays a significant role in the decision-making process regarding migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with three aspects of the decline in the fertility of white women in the United States from 1800 to 1920. The first concerns the portion of the secular decline in the total fertility rate which was due to changes in marriage rates and the portion due to decreases in marital fertility rates. The second concerns the fraction of couples in the nineteenth century who acted effectively to reduce their fertility and the third deals with the importance of abortion as a family-limiting practice among white couples in the nineteenth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Utilizing unique data generated from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Young Women, this paper examines the labor force participation of young mothers in the months immediately preceding and following the birth of the first child. Labor supply behavior at this point in the life cycle is described in greater detail than has hitherto been available. In addition, we analyze the independent effect of several factors of interest on the probability that a young woman will be in the labor force during various intervals surrounding the first birth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the 1970 Census data, this paper examines differences by sex in patterns of intragenerational occupational mobility over a five year period (1965-1970) for two cohorts of white, U.S. men and women. The observed mobility patterns are separated into that part due to structural factors (i.e., the different distributions over occupational origins and destinations by sex) and that due to sex-related individual and group characteristics. Most of the observed differences in mobility patterns are found to be the result of occupational sex segregation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces an analytic framework that can be used to assess the relationships between individual movement differentials and place characteristics, on the one hand, and aggregate mobility levels and city-suburb population change (in size or composition), on the other. Application of this framework using census data for individual metropolitan areas allows the analyst to decompose population changes due to net migration into contributing mobility streams and their component rates which are subject to unique community and individual influences. The paper provides both theoretical and empirical rationale for the framework, illustrates its use with 1970 census data, and discusses its implications for empirical research on city-suburb population redistribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies the techniques of multiple decrement life tables to marriage histories collected as part of the 1973 National Survey of Family Growth, in an attempt to examine differences in pattern and level of marriage dissolution by marriage order. The paper considers the process of marriage dissolution in two stages--marriage to separation and separation to divorce--in addition to considering the composite of these two, marriage to divorce. Second marriages are more likely to reamin intact only for blacks. For all subgroups of whites, second marriages are either as likely or more likely to dissolve than first marriages. For both first and second marriages, blacks are considerably less likely to obtain a divorce after separation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Criticizing the static assumptions of previous socioeconomic and microeconomic models of marital fertility, particularly regarding the sequential and stochastic facets of family building, this paper advocates a dynamic perspective. Of particular concern is the assumption of equilibrium family size made by those who employ the static perspective. The equilibrium family size assumption implies that the parameters relating social and economic variables to fertility will be similar for all births, regardless of order. To test this assumption of constancy, a two-equation model of fertility and female employment is introduced. Contrary to the static perspective's implication of constant effects, substantial parity differences in the estimates of parameters for both equations are reported, as are several differences between blacks and whites. On the basis of this evidence, I conclude that the static decision-making framework should be replaced by a dynamic approach to marital fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with a further analysis of the stable equivalent population for human populations. It first shows that the arithmetic difference between the size of the stable equivalent population and the actual population captures the total prospective contribution of age composition to the growth of the present population" if fertility and mortality rates are held constant at their current levels. The second part of the paper examined Fisher's reproductive value function and investigates the location of maxima in relation to alternative values of the intrinsic growth rate. One conclusion which follows from this analysis is that, contrary to what has been discovered by others in specific examples, the reproductive value function can possess a global maximum in the first one or two years of life, provided the intrinsic rate of population growth is sufficiently negative. This principle is illustrated by reference to reproductive value functions calculated from the recent experience of U.S. females. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of this paper are (1) to evaluate the accuracy of the intervening opportunities-competing migrants hypothesis (Stouffer, 1960) in estimating 1955-1960 interstate migration streams in the United States and (2) to compare the results with those obtained by Galle and Taeuber (1966) for metropolitan migration. Our results strongly confirm Stouffer's hypothesis and yield parameter estimates highly comparable to those obtained for metropolitan migration, except that competing migrants exert a stronger influence than intervening opportunities in interstate migration. Our study is based on 2,256 interstate migration flows in the continental United States, whereas Stouffer's intercity study and Galle and Taeuber's metropolitan study were each based on 116 migration flows. Our results indicate that Stouffer's theory holds for different levels of aggregation with remarkable consistency. Several theoretical models of the migration process are more compatible with Stouffer's original 1940 formulation of intervening opportunities than his 1960 reformulation. Estimates for interstate data indicate that the 1940 definition provides slightly better results. For both these reasons, it would seem that the 1940 formulation should be given serious consideration in future tests of Stouffer's hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the 1960's and continuing into the 1970's, the charge that birth control and abortion are integral elements of a white genocidal conspiracy directed against Afro--Americans has been heard with increasing frequency and stridency in black communities. The genocide theory finds greatest acceptance among spokesmen for black nationalist and black revolutionary groups, but suspicion of family planning programs is not limited to them. An analysis of black leadership opinion on birth control is provided in this paper. The black debate over the desirability of population limitation is traced back approximately fifty years. It began with a dispute between those blacks who believed that in sheer numbers there was strength and those blacks, such as W. E. B. DuBois, who argued that among human races, as among vegetables, quality and not quantity counted. An appreciation of the sexual exploitation of the chattel slave in the ante-bellum period, which did not end with emancipation, is also essential to an understanding of the roots and rationale of the genocide notion which arc the foci of this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the design effect of counting rules, for linking deaths to housing units where they are enumerated in the survey, on the sampling variance of dual system and single system estimators of death registration completeness. It investigates estimators based on conventional rules that uniquely link each death to a single housing unit as well as estimators based on multiplicity rules which permit deaths to be linked to more than one housing unit. Sampling variance formulas are derived containing parameters that reflect the efficiency of the counting rule. Estimates of these parameters for different counting rules are compared utilizing information that was collected in a mortality survey experiment. Finally, the design of a national death registration test is considered and the sample size implications of different counting rules are compared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to answer several questions about urbanization in New Zealand: (1) How have the paradoxical phenomena of a high level of urbanization and an agriculturally oriented economy coexisted in New Zealand? (2) How do the levels of urbanization in New Zealand and in the other "new countries" of British origin (Australia, Canada, and the United States) compare? (3) Why has New Zealand never had a single dominant metropolis as is commonly found in other countries of its size? (4) How have the sources or urbanization--reclassification, differential natural increase, and migration--influenced the process of urbanization in New Zealand? (5) How has New Zealand's small population affected its urban proportion? (6) What factors underlie the phenomenal rate of urbanization of New Zealand's Maori population during the past generation? The analysis covers the period from 1861 to 1971. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper has two principal aims: (1) to analyze and measure how the demographic variables-mortality, fertility, and immigration- affect the cost of education; (2) to evaluate what possibilities developing countries, such as those of Latin America, have for a rapid educational improvement. The paper relates demographic and educational variables of three different populations: Sweden, 1840-1965; the United States, 1850-1960; and Latin America, 1930-2000. Three educational variables are also cone sidered: (a) school attendance rates by sex and age; (b) distribution of students of same age by grade; and (c) cost of student by grade. Demographic changes in countries such as Sweden and the United States were favorable for the development of education. For the future, unless an increase of fertility occurs, mortality and fertility changes will not have a significant effect on the cost of education in these countries. In current less developed countries the demographic changes during the past were less favorable to educational development. A future reduction of fertility will significantly help them to achieve a higher educational level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Place-of-birth-by-residence data, tabulated by age and sex for the same areal units in two successive censuses, have been used to estimate intercensal net migration flows. However, a fuller use of the same data permits the estimation of place-to-place flows. This paper describes a method for estimating intercensal migration streams from place-of-birth- by-residence data and illustrates its application with data on the white female native population of the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Demography (Springer Nature) is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper examines the relationship between migration and marriage by describing how the distributions of marital statuses and assortative mating patterns vary by individual and community experiences of migration. In Mexico, migrants and those living in areas with high levels of out-migration are more likely to be in heterogamous unions. This is because migration increases the relative attractiveness of single return migrants while disproportionately reducing the number of marriageable men in local marriage markets. In the United States, the odds of homogamy are lower for migrants compared with nonmigrants; however, they do not vary depending on the volume of migration in communities. Migrants are more likely than nonmigrants to 'marry up' educationally because the relatively small size of this group compels them to expand their pool of potential spouses to include nonmigrants, who tend to be better educated than they are. Among migrants, the odds of marrying outside of one's education group increase the most among the least educated. In Mexican communities with high rates of out-migration, the odds of marrying outside of one's education group are highest among those with the highest level of education. These findings suggest that migration disrupts preferences and opportunities for homogamy by changing social arrangements and normative climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, rapid growth of the U.S. Hispanic population has raised concerns about immigrant adaptation, including fertility. Empirical research suggests that Hispanics, especially Mexicans, might not be following the historical European pattern of rapid intergenerational fertility decline (and convergence toward native levels). If confirmed, continued high Hispanic fertility could indicate a broader lack of assimilation into mainstream American society. In this paper, we reexamine the issue of Hispanic and Mexican fertility using an approach that combines biological and immigrant generations to more closely approximate a comparison of immigrant women with those of their daughters' and granddaughters' generation. Contrary to cross-sectional results, our new analyses show that Hispanic and Mexican fertility is converging with that of whites, and that it is similarly responsive to period conditions and to women's level of education. In addition, we employ a mathematical simulation to illustrate the conditions under which cross-sectional analyses can produce misleading results. Finally, we discuss the import of the fertility convergence we document for debates about immigrant assimilation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I examine temporal changes in U.S. adult mortality by chronic disease cause of death and by sex over a 40-year period in the second half of the twentieth century. I apply age-period-cohort (APC) analyses that combine conventional approaches and a new method of model estimation to simultaneously account for age, period, and cohort variations in mortality rates for four leading causes of deaths, including heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and breast cancer. The results show that large reductions in mortality since the late 1960s continued well into the late 1990s and that these reductions were predominately contributed by cohort effects. Cohort effects are found to differ by specific causes of death examined, but they generally show substantial survival improvements. Implications of these results are discussed with regard to demographic theories of mortality reductions, differential cohort accumulation of health capital and lifetime exposures to socioeconomic and behavioral risk factors, and period changes in diagnostic techniques and medical treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the extent of spatial assimilation among immigrants of different racial and ethnic origins. We use restricted data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses to calculate the levels of dissimilarity by race and Hispanic origin, nativity, and year of entry, and then run multivariate models to examine these relationships. The findings provide broad support for spatial assimilation theory. Foreign-born Hispanics, Asians, and blacks are more segregated from native-born non-Hispanic whites than are the U.S.-born of these groups. The patterns for Hispanics and Asians can be explained by the average characteristics of the foreign-born that are generally associated with higher levels of segregation, such as lower levels of income, English language ability, and home ownership. We also find that immigrants who have been in the United States for longer periods are generally less segregated than new arrivals, and once again, much of this difference can be attributed to the characteristics of immigrants. However, patterns also vary across groups. Levels of segregation are much higher for black immigrants than for Asian, Hispanic, and white immigrants. In addition, because black immigrants are, on average, of higher socioeconomic status than native-born blacks, such characteristics do not help explain their very high levels of segregation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]