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We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations' World Population Prospects, and also to a state-of-the-art gravity model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes the evolution of TFR into three phases: pre-transition high fertility, the fertility transition, and post-transition low fertility. The model for the fertility decline builds on the United Nations Population Division's current deterministic projection methodology, which assumes that fertility will eventually fall below replacement level. It models the decline in TFR as the sum of two logistic functions that depend on the current TFR level, and a random term. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to project future TFR based on both the country's TFR history and the pattern of all countries. It is estimated from United Nations estimates of past TFR in all countries using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The post-transition low fertility phase is modeled using an autoregressive model, in which long-term TFR projections converge toward and oscillate around replacement level. The method is evaluated using out-of-sample projections for the period since 1980 and the period since 1995, and is found to be well calibrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the current family planning policy in China, the criterion for evaluating all parties involved in the birth planning system provides an incentive for everyone to see that the policy is met, either in reality through strict enforcement of family planning regulations, or statistically through manipulation of statistical records. We investigate underreporting of births in four rural counties of northern China, using data from a 1992 sample survey featuring a reproductive history. To clarify the mechanisms of underreporting, we focus on the ways in which reporting errors may affect the distribution of first births by time since marriage. The results of our investigation suggest that in three of the four counties, first-birth intervals are lengthened by underreporting of girl babies and by replacing them with second births reported as first births. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the causes of marital fertility in the Iranian setting. It has been argued that according to both demand and ideation theories, a higher status of women leads to reduced fertility. Demand theory is formulated in terms of a household that balances costs and benefits, but the husband and the wife may well perceive these costs and benefits differently, so that their relative weight in making decisions is important. The higher the woman's status, the greater her weight in decision-making. The decline equally affected women at all educational levels, but it was greater among women whose husbands were more educated. This may be because husband's education is a reliable proxy for husband's occupational status and hence for the socioeconomic standing of the household. Households with higher socioeconomic standing tend to participate more fully in modernization and hence to have a greater fertility decline, as predicted by demand theory. If the decline were driven primarily by the transmission of ideas, one would expect more educated women to be affected more strongly than less educated women, but this was not the case.