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Introduction: The time required to reach clinical remission varies in patients with chronic urticaria (CU). The objective of this study is to develop a predictive model using a machine learning methodology to predict time to clinical remission for patients with CU. Methods: Adults with ≥ 2 ICD-9/10 relevant CU diagnosis codes/CU-related treatment > 6 weeks apart were identified in the Optum deidentified electronic health record dataset (January 2007 to June 2019). Clinical remission was defined as ≥ 12 months without CU diagnosis/CU-related treatment. A random survival forest was used to predict time from diagnosis to clinical remission for each patient based on clinical and demographic features available at diagnosis. Model performance was assessed using concordance, which indicates the degree of agreement between observed and predicted time to remission. To characterize clinically relevant groups, features were summarized among cohorts that were defined based on quartiles of predicted time to remission. Results: Among 112,443 patients, 73.5% reached clinical remission, with a median of 336 days from diagnosis. From 1876 initial features, 176 were retained in the final model, which predicted a median of 318 days to remission. The model showed good performance with a concordance of 0.62. Patients with predicted longer time to remission tended to be older with delayed CU diagnosis, and have more comorbidities, more laboratory tests, higher body mass index, and polypharmacy during the 12-month period before the first CU diagnosis. Conclusions: Applying machine learning to real-world data enabled accurate prediction of time to clinical remission and identified multiple relevant demographic and clinical variables with predictive value. Ongoing work aims to further validate and integrate these findings into clinical applications for CU management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Chronic spontaneous (previously known as idiopathic) urticaria (CSU) is a chronic skin disease with the potential for natural remission. The objectives of this targeted literature review were to identify evidence on the clinical course of CSU, including remission rates, and to estimate cumulative remission rates for different time points. Methods: Electronic databases (MEDLINE, MEDLINE-In Process, Embase, Web of Science, BIOSIS Previews and the Cochrane Library) and relevant conference proceedings were searched to identify studies involving patients with CSU aged ≥ 12 years that provide data on remission rates and disease duration. Observational studies with patient follow-ups of ≥ 1 year or review articles were included. Data extracted from five selected studies were used to run Kaplan–Meier (KM) analyses and best-fit distributions to calculate remission rates per 4-week period and weighted averages. Results: Ten publications were included in this review. The proportion of patients achieving remission within year 1 ranged from 21 to 47%, while reported remission rate estimates at year 5 were 34% and 45%. Based on calculated 4-weekly remission rates, cumulative remission estimates ranged from 9 to 38% at year 1, from 29 to 71% at year 5 and from 52 to 93% at year 20. Cumulative weighted average estimates for the proportion of patients remitting at years 1, 5 and 20 were 17%, 45% and 73%, respectively. Conclusions: Published evidence suggests that CSU is a self-limiting condition with variable disease severity and duration, apparently dependent on multiple factors. However, data sources differed in terms of definitions of disease severity and remission, as well as in conclusions on influencing factors. Further studies and uniform definitions are required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Chronic urticaria (CU), a proxy for chronic spontaneous urticaria, has been associated with a negative impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and costs, but there is limited evidence on the burden of CU in Brazil. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of CU and assess the burden of CU on HRQoL and healthcare resource utilization (HRU) among adults in Brazil. Methods: This retrospective, cross-sectional study, pooled data from the 2011, 2012, and 2015 National Health and Wellness Survey in Brazil (n = 36,000). Respondents (aged ≥18 years) diagnosed with and treated for CU provided data on demographics, health history, HRQoL (mental and physical health status) on Short-Form SF-36v2, presence of psychological complaints, work impairment, activity impairment, and HRU. Generalized linear models, controlling for covariates, examined differences between those treated for CU and matched controls on the outcome variables. Results: The prevalence of diagnosed CU was 0.41% (n = 249) and treated CU was 0.21% (n = 127). After adjustments, CU (currently treated for CU) was associated with worse mental functioning, physical functioning, and health utilities compared with controls (all p\0.01). CU had over twice the odds of anxiety and sleep difficulties, over 1.5 times the work and activity impairment, twice the number of total physician visits, eight times the number of allergist visits, and twice the number of emergency room visits as controls (all p<0.01). Conclusions: Many CU patients using prescription treatment experienced anxiety and sleep disturbances, poorer HRQoL, significant work and activity impairment, and high HRU, compared with matched general population controls. Findings suggest an unmet need for more effective treatment and management of CU in Brazil. Funding: Novartis Pharma AG and Genentech. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]