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OBJECTIVE: Prediabetes in young people is an emerging epidemic that disproportionately impacts Hispanic populations. We aimed to develop a metabolite-based prediction model for prediabetes in young people with overweight/obesity at risk for type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In independent, prospective cohorts of Hispanic youth (discovery; n = 143 without baseline prediabetes) and predominately Hispanic young adults (validation; n = 56 without baseline prediabetes), we assessed prediabetes via 2-h oral glucose tolerance tests. Baseline metabolite levels were measured in plasma from a 2-h postglucose challenge. In the discovery cohort, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression with a stability selection procedure was used to identify robust predictive metabolites for prediabetes. Predictive performance was evaluated in the discovery and validation cohorts using logistic regression. RESULTS: Two metabolites (allylphenol sulfate and caprylic acid) were found to predict prediabetes beyond known risk factors, including sex, BMI, age, ethnicity, fasting/2-h glucose, total cholesterol, and triglycerides. In the discovery cohort, the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of the model with metabolites and known risk factors was 0.80 (95% CI 0.72–0.87), which was higher than the risk factor-only model (AUC 0.63 [0.53–0.73]; P = 0.001). When the predictive models developed in the discovery cohort were applied to the replication cohort, the model with metabolites and risk factors predicted prediabetes more accurately (AUC 0.70 [95% CI 40.55–0.86]) than the same model without metabolites (AUC 0.62 [0.46–0.79]). CONCLUSIONS: Metabolite profiles may help improve prediabetes prediction compared with traditional risk factors. Findings suggest that medium-chain fatty acids and phytochemicals are early indicators of prediabetes in high-risk youth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine whether overweight Latino children with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) (> or = 100 mg/dl) have increased insulin resistance or decreased beta-cell function compared with those with normal fasting glucose (NFG).Research Design and Methods: We studied 207 healthy overweight Latino children, aged 8-13 years, with a family history of type 2 diabetes. Fasting and 2-h glucose and insulin were assessed by oral glucose tolerance test. Insulin sensitivity (S(i)), the acute insulin response to glucose (AIRg), and the disposition index (DI; an index of beta-cell function) were determined using the insulin-modified intravenous glucose tolerance test and minimal modeling. Body composition was determined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry.Results: There were no differences in body composition between NFG (n = 182) and IFG (n = 25) children. Compared with children with NFG, children with IFG had higher fasting and 2-h glucose values and higher fasting insulin. After adjusting for covariates, children with IFG had no difference in S(i) but 15% lower DI than NFG children (2,224 +/- 210 vs. 2,613 +/- 76, P < 0.05). Multivariate linear regression showed that AIRg and DI, but not S(i), were significant predictors of fasting blood glucose.Conclusions: In overweight Latino adolescents with a family history of type 2 diabetes, IFG is associated with impaired beta-cell function and therefore may identify children likely to be at risk for progression to type 2 diabetes. The actual risk of progression of IFG to type 2 diabetes remains to be determined by prospective longitudinal studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]