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Aims/hypothesis: Nordic dietary patterns that are high in healthy traditional Nordic foods may have a role in the prevention and management of diabetes. To inform the update of the EASD clinical practice guidelines for nutrition therapy, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of Nordic dietary patterns and cardiometabolic outcomes. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library from inception to 9 March 2021. We included prospective cohort studies and RCTs with a follow-up of ≥1 year and ≥3 weeks, respectively. Two independent reviewers extracted relevant data and assessed the risk of bias (Newcastle–Ottawa Scale and Cochrane risk of bias tool). The primary outcome was total CVD incidence in the prospective cohort studies and LDL-cholesterol in the RCTs. Secondary outcomes in the prospective cohort studies were CVD mortality, CHD incidence and mortality, stroke incidence and mortality, and type 2 diabetes incidence; in the RCTs, secondary outcomes were other established lipid targets (non-HDL-cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides), markers of glycaemic control (HbA1c, fasting glucose, fasting insulin), adiposity (body weight, BMI, waist circumference) and inflammation (C-reactive protein), and blood pressure (systolic and diastolic blood pressure). The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach was used to assess the certainty of the evidence. Results: We included 15 unique prospective cohort studies (n=1,057,176, with 41,708 cardiovascular events and 13,121 diabetes cases) of people with diabetes for the assessment of cardiovascular outcomes or people without diabetes for the assessment of diabetes incidence, and six RCTs (n=717) in people with one or more risk factor for diabetes. In the prospective cohort studies, higher adherence to Nordic dietary patterns was associated with 'small important' reductions in the primary outcome, total CVD incidence (RR for highest vs lowest adherence: 0.93 [95% CI 0.88, 0.99], p=0.01; substantial heterogeneity: I2=88%, pQ<0.001), and similar or greater reductions in the secondary outcomes of CVD mortality and incidence of CHD, stroke and type 2 diabetes (p<0.05). Inverse dose–response gradients were seen for total CVD incidence, CVD mortality and incidence of CHD, stroke and type 2 diabetes (p<0.05). No studies assessed CHD or stroke mortality. In the RCTs, there were small important reductions in LDL-cholesterol (mean difference [MD] −0.26 mmol/l [95% CI −0.52, −0.00], pMD=0.05; substantial heterogeneity: I2=89%, pQ<0.01), and 'small important' or greater reductions in the secondary outcomes of non-HDL-cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, insulin, body weight, BMI and systolic blood pressure (p<0.05). For the other outcomes there were 'trivial' reductions or no effect. The certainty of the evidence was low for total CVD incidence and LDL-cholesterol; moderate to high for CVD mortality, established lipid targets, adiposity markers, glycaemic control, blood pressure and inflammation; and low for all other outcomes, with evidence being downgraded mainly because of imprecision and inconsistency. Conclusions/interpretation: Adherence to Nordic dietary patterns is associated with generally small important reductions in the risk of major CVD outcomes and diabetes, which are supported by similar reductions in LDL-cholesterol and other intermediate cardiometabolic risk factors. The available evidence provides a generally good indication of the likely benefits of Nordic dietary patterns in people with or at risk for diabetes. Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04094194. Funding: Diabetes and Nutrition Study Group of the EASD Clinical Practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: Diabetogenic effects of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been suggested. However, evidence based on prospective cohort studies is limited. We examined the association between serum PFAS concentrations and incident diabetes in the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation Multi-Pollutant Study (SWAN-MPS). Methods: We included 1237 diabetes-free women aged 45–56 years at baseline (1999–2000) who were followed up to 2017. At each follow-up visit, women with incident diabetes were identified by the presence of one or more of the following conditions: (1) use of a glucose-lowering medication at any visit; (2) fasting glucose ≥7 mmol/l on two consecutive visits while not on steroids; and (3) any two visits with self-reported diabetes and at least one visit with fasting blood glucose ≥7 mmol/l. Serum concentrations of 11 PFAS were quantified by online solid-phase extraction–HPLC–isotope dilution–tandem MS. Seven PFAS with high detection rates (>96%) (n-perfluorooctanoic acid [n-PFOA], perfluorononanoic acid [PFNA], perfluorohexane sulfonic acid [PFHxS], n-perfluorooctane sulfonic acid [n-PFOS], sum of perfluoromethylheptane sulfonic acid isomers [Sm-PFOS], 2-[N-methyl-perfluorooctane sulfonamido] acetic acid [MeFOSAA] and 2-[N-ethyl-perfluorooctane sulfonamido] acetic acid) were included in data analysis. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute HRs and 95% CIs. Quantile-based g-computation was used to evaluate the joint effects of PFAS mixtures. Results: After adjustment for race/ethnicity, site, education, smoking status, alcohol consumption, total energy intake, physical activity, menopausal status and BMI, the HR (95% CI) comparing the lowest with the highest tertile was 1.67 (1.21, 2.31) for n-PFOA (ptrend = 0.001), 1.58 (1.13, 2.21) for PFHxS (ptrend = 0.003), 1.36 (0.97, 1.90) for Sm-PFOS (ptrend = 0.05), 1.85 (1.28, 2.67) for MeFOSAA (ptrend = 0.0004) and 1.64 (1.17, 2.31) for the sum of four common PFAS (n-PFOA, PFNA, PFHxS and total PFOS) (ptrend = 0.002). Exposure to seven PFAS as mixtures was associated with an HR of 2.62 (95% CI 1.12, 6.20), comparing the top with the bottom tertiles for all seven PFAS. Conclusions/interpretation: This study suggests that PFAS may increase diabetes risk in midlife women. Reduced exposure to these 'forever and everywhere chemicals' may be an important preventative approach to lowering population-wide diabetes risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: Our aim was to determine whether a range of prespecified retinal vessel traits were associated with incident diabetic retinopathy in adults with type 2 diabetes. Methods: In the prospective observational cohort Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study of 1066 adults with type 2 diabetes, aged 60–75 years at recruitment, 718 were free from diabetic retinopathy at baseline. Baseline retinal traits including vessel widths, tortuosity (curvature) and fractal dimensions (network complexity), were quantified using fundus camera images and semiautomated software, and analysed using logistic regression for their association with incident diabetic retinopathy over 10 years. Results: The incidence of diabetic retinopathy was 11.4% (n = 82) over 10 years. After adjustment for a range of vascular and diabetes-related risk factors, both increased venular tortuosity (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.15, 1.98; p = 0.003) and decreased fractal dimension (OR 0.75; 95% CI 0.58, 0.96; p = 0.025) were associated with incident retinopathy. There was no evidence of an association with arterial tortuosity, and associations between measurements of vessel widths and retinopathy lost statistical significance after adjustment for diabetes-related factors and vascular disease. Adding venular tortuosity to a model including established risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (HbA1c, BP and kidney function) improved the discriminative ability (C statistic increased from 0.624 to 0.640, p = 0.013), but no such benefit was found with fractal dimension. Conclusions/interpretation: Increased retinal venular tortuosity and decreased fractal dimension are associated with incident diabetic retinopathy, independent of classical risk factors. There is some evidence that venular tortuosity may be a useful biomarker to improve the predictive ability of models based on established retinopathy risk factors, and its inclusion in further risk prediction modelling is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: The study aimed to assess the associations of maternal early-pregnancy blood glucose levels with fetal growth throughout pregnancy and the risks of adverse birth outcomes. Methods: In a population-based prospective cohort study among 6116 pregnant women, maternal non-fasting glucose levels were measured in blood plasma at a median 13.2 weeks of gestation (95% range 9.6–17.6). We measured fetal growth by ultrasound in each pregnancy period. We obtained information about birth outcomes from medical records and maternal sociodemographic and lifestyle factors from questionnaires. Results: Higher maternal early-pregnancy non-fasting glucose levels were associated with altered fetal growth patterns, characterised by decreased fetal growth rates in mid-pregnancy and increased fetal growth rates from late pregnancy onwards, resulting in an increased length and weight at birth (p ≤0.05 for all). A weaker association of maternal early-pregnancy non-fasting glucose levels with fetal head circumference growth rates was present. Higher maternal early-pregnancy non-fasting glucose levels were also associated with an increased risk of delivering a large-for-gestational-age infant, but decreased risk of delivering a small-for-gestational-age infant (OR 1.28 [95% CI 1.16, 1.41], OR 0.88 [95% CI 0.79, 0.98] per mmol/l increase in maternal early-pregnancy non-fasting glucose levels, respectively). These associations were not explained by maternal sociodemographic factors, lifestyle factors or BMI. Maternal early-pregnancy non-fasting glucose levels were not associated with preterm birth or delivery complications. Conclusions/interpretation: Higher maternal early-pregnancy non-fasting glucose levels are associated with decreased fetal growth rates in mid-pregnancy and increased fetal growth rates from late pregnancy onwards, and an increased risk of delivering a large-for-gestational-age infant. Future preventive strategies need to focus on screening for an impaired maternal glucose metabolism from preconception and early pregnancy onwards to improve birth outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) affects up to 20% of pregnancies, and almost half of the women affected progress to type 2 diabetes later in life, making GDM the most significant risk factor for the development of future type 2 diabetes. An accurate prediction of future type 2 diabetes risk in the early postpartum period after GDM would allow for timely interventions to prevent or delay type 2 diabetes. In addition, new targets for interventions may be revealed by understanding the underlying pathophysiology of the transition from GDM to type 2 diabetes. The aim of this study is to identify both a predictive signature and early-stage pathophysiology of the transition from GDM to type 2 diabetes.Methods: We used a well-characterised prospective cohort of women with a history of GDM pregnancy, all of whom were enrolled at 6-9 weeks postpartum (baseline), were confirmed not to have diabetes via 2 h 75 g OGTT and tested anually for type 2 diabetes on an ongoing basis (2 years of follow-up). A large-scale targeted lipidomic study was implemented to analyse ~1100 lipid metabolites in baseline plasma samples using a nested pair-matched case-control design, with 55 incident cases matched to 85 non-case control participants. The relationships between the concentrations of baseline plasma lipids and respective follow-up status (either type 2 diabetes or no type 2 diabetes) were employed to discover both a predictive signature and the underlying pathophysiology of the transition from GDM to type 2 diabetes. In addition, the underlying pathophysiology was examined in vivo and in vitro.Results: Machine learning optimisation in a decision tree format revealed a seven-lipid metabolite type 2 diabetes predictive signature with a discriminating power (AUC) of 0.92 (87% sensitivity, 93% specificity and 91% accuracy). The signature was highly robust as it includes 45-fold cross-validation under a high confidence threshold (1.0) and binary output, which together minimise the chance of data overfitting and bias selection. Concurrent analysis of differentially expressed lipid metabolite pathways uncovered the upregulation of α-linolenic/linoleic acid metabolism (false discovery rate [FDR] 0.002) and fatty acid biosynthesis (FDR 0.005) and the downregulation of sphingolipid metabolism (FDR 0.009) as being strongly associated with the risk of developing future type 2 diabetes. Focusing specifically on sphingolipids, the downregulation of sphingolipid metabolism using the pharmacological inhibitors fumonisin B1 (FB1) and myriocin in mouse islets and Min6 K8 cells (a pancreatic beta-cell like cell line) significantly impaired glucose-stimulated insulin secretion but had no significant impact on whole-body glucose homeostasis or insulin sensitivity.Conclusions/interpretation: We reveal a novel predictive signature and associate reduced sphingolipids with the pathophysiology of transition from GDM to type 2 diabetes. Attenuating sphingolipid metabolism in islets impairs glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: Respiratory infections and onset of islet autoimmunity are reported to correlate positively in two small prospective studies. The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study is the largest prospective international cohort study on the environmental determinants of type 1 diabetes that regularly monitors both clinical infections and islet autoantibodies. The aim was to confirm the influence of reported respiratory infections and to further characterise the temporal relationship with autoantibody seroconversion. Methods: During the years 2004-2009, 8676 newborn babies with HLA genotypes conferring an increased risk of type 1 diabetes were enrolled at 3 months of age to participate in a 15 year follow-up. In the present study, the association between parent-reported respiratory infections and islet autoantibodies at 3 month intervals up to 4 years of age was evaluated in 7869 children. Time-dependent proportional hazard models were used to assess how the timing of respiratory infections related to persistent confirmed islet autoimmunity, defined as autoantibody positivity against insulin, GAD and/or insulinoma antigen-2, concordant at two reference laboratories on two or more consecutive visits. Results: In total, 87,327 parent-reported respiratory infectious episodes were recorded while the children were under study surveillance for islet autoimmunity, and 454 children seroconverted. The number of respiratory infections occurring in a 9 month period was associated with the subsequent risk of autoimmunity ( p < 0.001). For each 1/year rate increase in infections, the hazard of islet autoimmunity increased by 5.6% (95% CI 2.5%, 8.8%). The risk association was linked primarily to infections occurring in the winter (HR 1.42 [95% CI 1.16, 1.74]; p < 0.001). The types of respiratory infection independently associated with autoimmunity were common cold, influenza-like illness, sinusitis, and laryngitis/tracheitis, with HRs (95% CI) of 1.38 (1.11, 1.71), 2.37 (1.35, 4.15), 2.63 (1.22, 5.67) and 1.76 (1.04, 2.98), respectively. Conclusions/interpretation: Recent respiratory infections in young children correlate with an increased risk of islet autoimmunity in the TEDDY study. Further studies to identify the potential causative viruses with pathogen-specific assays should focus especially on the 9 month time window leading to autoantibody seroconversion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: We aimed to identify critical periods and specific longitudinal growth patterns from fetal life onwards associated with childhood insulin and C-peptide levels. Methods: In a prospective population-based cohort study of 4328 children, we repeatedly measured (femur) length and (estimated fetal) weight from the second trimester of fetal life until 6 years of age. BMI was calculated from 6 months onwards. Insulin and C-peptide levels were measured at 6 years of age. Results: Preterm birth and small or large size for gestational age at birth were not associated with childhood insulin levels. Conditional growth modelling showed that, independent of growth in other time intervals, weight growth in each time interval from birth onwards, length growth from 6 months onwards and BMI growth from 12 months onwards were positively associated with childhood insulin levels. The strongest associations were present for weight and BMI growth between 48 and 72 months of age. Repeated measurement analyses showed that, compared with children in the lowest quartile of childhood insulin, those in the highest quartile had a higher length from birth onwards and a higher weight and BMI from 24 months onwards. These differences increased with age. No associations were observed for fetal growth characteristics. Similar results were observed for C-peptide levels. Conclusions/interpretation: Our results suggest that rapid length, weight and BMI growth from birth onwards, but not during fetal life, is associated with higher insulin levels in childhood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: We sought to evaluate the relationship between delayed conception and type 2 diabetes risk, given that there are plausible underlying mechanisms linking the two, including inflammation and insulin resistance. Methods: Participants of the Nurses' Health Study II prospective cohort were included if they were free of chronic disease (cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, cancer) at baseline. Biennial questionnaires updated information on infertility status (>12 months attempted pregnancy), lifestyle characteristics and several health-related outcomes. Self-reported cases of diabetes were confirmed using a follow-up questionnaire. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute the HRs and 95% CIs. Results: Incident type 2 diabetes occurred in 5,993 of the 112,106 participants over 24 years of follow-up (1989-2013). A history of infertility was reported in 27,774 (24.8%) women and was associated with a 20% greater risk of developing diabetes, compared with those never reporting infertility (HR 1.20 [95% CI 1.14, 1.28]), after adjusting for age, lifestyle factors, marital status, oral contraceptive use, family history of diabetes and BMI. Compared with women without a history of infertility, the causes of infertility associated with a higher diabetes risk were ovulation disorders (HR 1.43 [95% CI 1.29, 1.58]) and tubal factor (HR 1.34 [95% CI 1.13, 1.58]). Cervical factor (HR 1.06 [95% CI 0.81, 1.40]) and endometriosis (HR 1.06 [95% CI 0.89, 1.27]) were not associated, while male factor infertility was associated with a modestly higher diabetes risk (HR 1.15 [95% CI 1.00, 1.33]). Conclusions/interpretation: These novel findings suggest a history of infertility, particularly that related to ovulation disorders and tubal blockage, is significantly associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: To assess the impact of impaired insulin secretion (IIS) and insulin resistance (IR) on type 2 diabetes incidence in a Japanese population. Methods: This 4 year cohort study included 3,059 participants aged 30-69 without diabetes at baseline who underwent comprehensive medical check-ups between April 2006 and March 2007 at Saku Central Hospital. Based on their insulinogenic index and HOMA-IR values, participants were classified by the criteria of the Japan Diabetes Society into four categories: normal; isolated IIS (i-IIS); isolated IR (i-IR); and IIS plus IR. They were followed up until March 2011. The incidence of type 2 diabetes was determined from fasting and 2 h post-load plasma glucose concentrations and from receiving medical treatment for diabetes. Results: At baseline, 1,550 individuals (50.7%) were classified as normal, 900 (29.4%) i-IIS, 505 (16.5%) i-IR, and 104 (3.4%) IIS plus IR. During 10,553 person-years of follow-up, 219 individuals developed type 2 diabetes, with 126 (57.5%) having i-IIS at baseline. Relative to the normal group, the multivariable-adjusted HRs for type 2 diabetes in the i-IIS, i-IR and IIS plus IR groups were 8.27 (95% CI 5.33, 12.83), 4.90 (95% CI 2.94, 8.17) and 16.93 (95% CI 9.80, 29.25), respectively. The population-attributable fractions of type 2 diabetes onset due to i-IIS, i-IR, and IIS plus IR were 50.6% (95% CI 46.7%, 53.0%), 14.2% (95% CI 11.8%, 15.6%) and 12.9% (95% CI 12.3%, 13.2%), respectively. Conclusions/interpretation: Compared with IR, IIS had a greater impact on the incidence of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to investigate whether dysglycaemia at admission is associated with adverse events at 90 days or 1 year in a population-based cohort of patients hospitalised with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Clinical and laboratory data were prospectively collected on all 2,366 adults without diabetes admitted with CAP to six hospitals in Edmonton (AB, Canada) and grouped according to admission glucose: 4.0 to <6.1 mmol/l ( n = 778, reference group), 6.1 to <7.8 mmol/l ( n = 924); 7.8 to <11.1 mmol/l ( n = 535); and 11.1 to 20 mmol/l ( n = 129). Multivariable Cox models were used to examine the relationship between dysglycaemia and mortality or CAP readmission during follow-up. The mean age was 69 (SD 18) years and 48% of participants were female. Compared with those with glucose <6.1 mmol/l (114 [15%] deaths), no differences in 90 day mortality were observed in the dysglycaemia groups: 143 deaths (15%) in the 6.1–7.8 mmol/l group (adjusted HR [aHR] 0.92, 95% CI 0.72–1.18), 111 deaths (21%) in the 7.8–11.1 mmol/l group (aHR 1.05, 0.81–1.37) and 34 deaths (26%) in the 11.1–20 mmol/l group (aHR 1.30, 0.88–1.93). Similarly, compared with those in the <6.1 mmol/l group (198 [25%] deaths), no difference in 1 year mortality was observed: 233 deaths (25%) in the 6.1 to <7.8 mmol/l group (aHR 0.86, 0.71–1.04), 164 deaths (31%) in the 7.8 to <11.1 mmol/l group (aHR 0.92, 0.75–1.14) and 49 deaths (38%) in the 11.1 to 20 mmol/l group (aHR 1.12, 0.81–1.55). Readmissions for CAP were also similar at 1 year: compared with 10% (70/707) in the 6.1 mmol/l group, the frequencies were 8% (66/842), 9% (45/474) and 10% (11/107) in the 6.1 to <7.8 mmol/l, 7.8 to <11.1 mmol/l, and 11.1 to 20 mmol/l groups, respectively ( p > 0.05 for all comparisons). Although previously associated with inpatient morbidity and mortality, admission dysglycaemia was not associated with an increased risk of death or CAP readmission at 90 days or 1 year among those who survived hospitalisation for pneumonia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]