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Aim: Habitat loss and degradation is one of the main threats to biodiversity worldwide. Ecological modelling community has been increasingly incorporating habitat changes in the species distribution models (SDMs). However, the effect that the uncertainty arising from the standard procedures of land‐use/land‐cover (LULC) mapping can have on SDMs has been overlooked. Remote sensing offers a great source of information to assess the habitat changes at different spatiotemporal scales. However, despite the great variety of satellite imagery preprocessing and supervised classification procedures currently available, their effects on SDMs remain largely unknown. Location: Baixa Limia–Serra do Xurés Natural Park, NW Spain. Methods: We developed SDMs for 27 bird species with 4 modelling algorithms using 12 sets of the LULC predictors derived from the combination of 3 image preprocessing levels and 4 supervised classification algorithms. Results: The preprocessing level, classification method and modelling algorithm had a significant impact on the SDM performance and on the spatial and temporal predictions, with the considerable variation between species. Even if the effects of satellite image processing and classification procedures on the performance and transferability of SDMs were lower than that of the modelling algorithms themselves, the spatial and temporal predictions of SDMs were overall strongly affected by these LULC mapping procedures, sometimes overriding the effect of modelling algorithms. Main conclusions: We argue that the uncertainty arising from the standard LULC mapping procedures when predicting species distribution dynamics should receive the same level of attention as the variability due to the different types of climate simulations and models often used in the ecological research. We also highlight the need to report accuracy of the satellite‐based LULC maps for each LULC class since some of these classes can be of key importance for certain types of the ecological applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Global environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. Location Catalonia, Spain. Methods Potential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. Results Our results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusions Such predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000 may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]