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Aim: Climate change has influenced the distribution and phenology of marine species, globally. However, knowledge of the impacts of climate change is lacking for many species that support valuable recreational fisheries. Cobia (Rachycentron canadum) are the target of an important recreational fishery along the U.S. east coast that is currently the subject of a management controversy regarding allocation and stock structure. Further, the current and probable future distributions of this migratory species are unclear, further complicating decision‐making. The objectives of this study are to better define the contemporary distribution of cobia along the U.S. east coast and to project potential shifts in distribution and phenology under future climate change scenarios. Location: Chesapeake Bay and the U.S. east coast. Methods: We developed a depth‐integrated habitat suitability model using archival tagging data from cobia that were caught and tagged in Chesapeake Bay during summer months and coupled those data with high‐resolution ocean models to project the contemporary and future distributions of cobia along U.S. east coast. Results: During the winter months, suitable cobia habitat currently occurs in offshore waters off North Carolina and further south, whereas during the summer months, suitable habitat occurs in waters from Florida to southern New England. In warmer years, the availability of suitable habitat increases in northern latitudes. Under continued climate change over the next 40–80 years, suitable habitat is projected to shift northward and decrease over the shelf. Main conclusions: Habitat distributions suggest cobia overwinter offshore and could inhabit waters further north during warmer months, into state jurisdictions that do not have strict management regulations for cobia. When waters are warmer, distributions are projected to shift poleward and seasonal migrations may begin earlier. These results can inform resource allocation discussions between fishery managers and resource users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To address the uncertainty associated with climate‐driven biogeographical changes in commercial fisheries species through an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) approach. Location: Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NEUS‐LME). Methods: We combined an ensemble SDM platform (BIOMOD 2) and a high‐resolution global climate model (NOAA GFDL CM2.6) to quantify spatiotemporal changes in habitat of two commercially important species in the Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NEUS‐LME); American lobster (Homarus americanus); and sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus). An ensemble SDM was calibrated using multi‐decadal fisheries‐independent surveys (1984–2016). Statistically weighted species‐specific ensemble SDM outputs were combined with 80 years of projected bottom temperature and salinity changes in response to a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (an annual 1% increase in atmospheric CO2). Results: Statistically significant changes (p <.05) in habitat suitability for both species were found over a large portion of the study area. Sea scallop undergoes a northward shift over the study period, while American lobster moves further offshore. The ensemble projections showed that several management zones were identified with increases and decreases in species‐specific habitat. Uncertainty due to variations in ensemble member models was also found in the direction of change within each management zone. Main conclusions: This study provides ensemble estimates of climate‐driven changes and associated uncertainties in the biogeography of two economically important species in the United States. Projected climate change in the NEUS‐LME will pose management challenges, and our ensemble projections provide useful information for climate‐ready management of commercial fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]