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Aim Land-use change is the single biggest cause of biodiversity loss. With a rising demand for resources, understanding how and where agriculture threatens biodiversity is of increasing importance. Agricultural expansion has received much attention, but where high agricultural land-use intensity (LUI) threatens biodiversity remains unclear. We address this knowledge gap with two main research questions: (1) Where do global patterns of LUI coincide with the spatial distribution of biodiversity? (2) Where are regions of potential conflict between different aspects of high LUI and high biodiversity? Location Global. Methods We overlaid thirteen LUI metrics with endemism richness, a range size-weighted species richness indicator, for mammals, birds and amphibians. We then used local indicators of spatial association to delineate statistically significant (P

Aim Drivers of biodiversity loss are increasingly broad in scale, requiring conser-vation planning to move towards range-wide assessments. This is especially chal-lenging for migratory species, such as reindeer or caribou (Rangifer tarandus),which use only a small portion of their range at a given point in time, and forwhich some parts of their range, such as calving grounds, may be much moreimportant than others. Our aim was to identify potential calving ground habitatof wild tundra reindeer populations throughout Russia, where scarce knowledgeabout seasonal reindeer habitat is an obstacle for conservation planning, and toassess possible impacts from oil and gas development and climate change.Location Northern Eurasia.Method We used occurrence data from known reindeer calving grounds usingspecies distribution models to first assess calving grounds characteristics andsecond predict their distribution across the Russian Arctic. We then comparedour calving ground map with maps of oil and gas development, and a range ofclimate change indicators.Results We found areas throughout the Russian Arctic that are suitable forcalving, including for some wild reindeer populations where calving groundlocations are unknown. Variables relating to resource availability in spring andpredator avoidance were the strongest predictors in our model. Oil and gasdevelopment affects calving grounds especially in the Barents Sea region and insouth-western Siberia, whereas climate change affects calving grounds onTaymyr, Chukotka, and Kamchatka.Main conclusions We conducted the first assessment of calving grounds ofRussia’s wild reindeer populations, highlighting the spatial heterogeneity of thethreats that they may face. Given the potentially strong impact of oil and gasdevelopment and climate change, conservation planning should aim for design-ing resilient conservation networks that would allow Arctic biodiversity tofreely move in time and space and thus to adapt to changing environments.KeywordsArctic, calving grounds, climate change, land use change, oil and gas exploita-tion, parturition, Russia, seasonal habitat, species distribution modelling.INTRODUCTIONAs global environmental change accelerates, conservationplanning faces the challenge to move beyond protecting indi-vidual sites towards range-wide assessments (Sandersonet al., 2002; Kuemmerle et al., 2011; Redford et al., 2011).This is particularly challenging for migratory species, whichat any given point in time use only a fraction of their totalrange (Berger, 2004; Mueller et al., 2011; Singh & Milner-Gulland, 2011). However, not all parts of their ranges are

Understanding species’ historical ranges can provide important information for conservation planning in the face of environmental change. Cromsigt et al. (this issue) comment on our recent European bison (Bison bonasus) range reconstruction, suggesting that bison were already 8000 years ago a refugee species (i.e. restricted to marginal habitat due to past human pressure) and that species distribution models (SDM) are generally of limited use for refugee species conservation. While we welcome this discussion, we find no evidence for the claim that human pressure prior to 8000 BP determined where bison occurred. More importantly, as human pressure is generally high and increasing, attempts to restore species across their former range may fail where the factors that relegated species into refugee status are still at play or where their optimal habitat has vanished. Identifying areas where human pressure is low and where refugee species have persisted over the last millennia is crucial, and SDM based on historical data are important for doing so. Refugee species suffer from the shifting baseline syndrome, but careful reality checks are needed and all available data should be considered before determining the baseline that should inform conservation planning.

Aim Understanding what constituted species ranges prior to large-scale human influence, and how past climate and land use change have affected range dynamics, provides conservation planners with important insights into how species may respond to future environmental change. Our aim here was to reconstruct the Holocene range of European bison (Bison bonasus) by combining a time-calibrated species distribution models (SDM) with a dynamic vegetation model. Location Europe. Method We used European bison occurrences from the Holocene in a maximum entropy model to assess bison range dynamics during the last 8000 years. As predictors, we used bioclimatic variables and vegetation reconstructions from the generalized dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We compared our range maps with maps of farmland and human population expansion to identify the main species range constraints. Results The Holocene distribution of European bison was mainly determined by vegetation patterns, with bison thriving in both broadleaved and coniferous forests, as well as by mean winter temperature. The heartland of European bison was in Central and Eastern Europe, whereas suitable habitat in Western Europe was scarce. While environmentally suitable regions were overall stable, the expansion of settlements and farming severely diminished available habitat. Main conclusions European bison habitat preferences may be wider than previously assumed, and our results suggest that the species had a more eastern and northern distribution than previously reported. Vegetation and climate transformation during the Holocene did not affect the bison's range substantially. Conversely, human population growth and the spread of farming resulted in drastic bison habitat loss and fragmentation, likely reaching a tipping point during the last 1000 years. Combining SDM and dynamic vegetation models can improve range reconstructions and projections, and thus help to identify resilient conservation strategies for endangered species. (Less)