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Abstract: Background: Frequent cannabis users are at high risk of dependence, still most (near) daily users are not dependent. It is unknown why some frequent users develop dependence, whereas others do not. This study aims to identify predictors of first-incidence DSM-IV cannabis dependence in frequent cannabis users. Methods: A prospective cohort of frequent cannabis users (aged 18–30, n =600) with baseline and two follow-up assessments (18 and 36 months) was used. Only participants without lifetime diagnosis of DSM-IV cannabis dependence at baseline (n =269) were selected. Incidence of DSM-IV cannabis dependence was established using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview version 3.0. Variables assessed as potential predictors of the development of cannabis dependence included sociodemographic factors, cannabis use variables (e.g., motives, consumption habits, cannabis exposure), vulnerability factors (e.g., childhood adversity, family history of mental disorders or substance use problems, personality, mental disorders), and stress factors (e.g., life events, social support). Results: Three-year cumulative incidence of cannabis dependence was 37.2% (95% CI=30.7–43.8%). Independent predictors of the first incidence of cannabis dependence included: living alone, coping motives for cannabis use, number and type of recent negative life events (major financial problems), and number and type of cannabis use disorder symptoms (impaired control over use). Cannabis exposure variables and stable vulnerability factors did not independently predict first incidence of cannabis dependence. Conclusions: In a high risk population of young adult frequent cannabis users, current problems are more important predictors of first incidence cannabis dependence than the level and type of cannabis exposure and stable vulnerability factors. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The relatively high levels of cannabis use among young people is a cause of concern because of the positive relationship between its early onset use, antisocial behaviours and associated lifestyle. Amongst a survey of 3919 young people at school year 11 in Northern Ireland (aged 14/15 years) 142 reported daily cannabis use. These young people also reported particularly high levels of legal and illegal drug use and accounted for a high proportion of use of hard drugs such as cocaine and heroin for the full school cohort. Daily cannabis users also reported high levels of antisocial behaviour and disaffection with school. The findings perhaps raise questions about the existence of a potentially ‘hidden’ high risk school based group of young people during adolescence who require specific targeted prevention strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]