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This technical report explains details on the results of the investigation to build a subsurface structural model and a selection of earthquake data at the target site of the blind prediction exercise for "The 6th International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior/International Association of Earthquake Engineering International Symposium on the Effect of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion (ESG6)." The selection process of the target site in the Kumamoto Plain, Japan, in ESG6 was explained with a historical review of the blind prediction tests in the previous ESG conferences. We have collected existing subsurface structural and earthquake data and conducted geophysical and geotechnical surveys in and around the target site to generate important velocity structure and the earthquake data used in the blind test. Microtremor data were obtained in triangular arrays ranging in side lengths from 1 to 962 m, and active surface wave data were derived along a 36-m line at the site. These data were provided for the prediction of a subsurface structural model in the first step of the blind prediction exercise. We also conducted a velocity logging in a borehole to a bottom depth of 39 m at the site and laboratory tests of soil samples from the borehole. We constructed a velocity profile of the shallow and deep sedimentary layers from a combination of the geophysical and geotechnical data at the site, and validated it by comparing the characteristics of the ground motion data from the moderate event. This "preferred velocity model" was provided as a standard model to the participants in the second and third steps of the blind prediction test to predict the earthquake ground motions of a moderate event and the mainshock of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The on-site P-wave earthquake early warning (EEW) based on the site-specific ratios of S-waves to P-waves has been applied to large-sized offshore earthquakes, and the efficiency of the method has been validated. However, the method requires the P-waves including earthquake ground motions radiated from a large slip area while avoiding the inclusion of S-waves. In this study, we investigated the applicability of the on-site P-wave EEW method for ground motions near an earthquake source fault region, using strong-motion data observed during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence in Japan. At first, we examined the appropriate time-window length following the arrival of the P-waves. As a result, P-waves with a time-window length of 2.56 s after the arrival at most strong-motion stations were required at least to predict appropriately S-waves for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, including the large-sized earthquakes. On the other hand, in the case of the large-sized earthquake as the mainshock (Mj 7.3), the method can predict within a brief time of 0.5 to 2 s in the operational use that strong ground motions exceeding a certain threshold (e.g., acceleration of 150 cm/s2) will come. Moreover, we found that the method was not strongly affected by the non-linearity of soil deposits due to strong ground motions during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence. The variability of the relationship between P- and S-waves at the seismic bedrock influenced by the source and path effects is larger than the variability of the relationships between P-/S-waves at the seismic bedrock and at the ground surface by the site effects, and therefore, it hides the effect of the non-linearity of soil deposits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A numerical investigation of surface wave propagation in the surface wave exploration of river embankments is implemented using 3D shallow soil models with different subsurface shapes and S-wave velocities. The focus is on the effects of surface and subsurface irregularities on the propagation and dispersion characteristics of Rayleigh waves generated by a surface source and observed at points along the crest of the embankment. Rayleigh wave dispersion curves observed along the embankment crest are found to be contaminated by reflected waves, with the amount of contamination affected more by the position of the velocity boundary at the bottom edge of the embankment than the surface topography. When the velocity boundary is close to the ground surface, especially at the toe of the slope, the effect of reflected waves is sufficiently large to generate biases in the phase velocity estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we compared observations and predictions submitted by participants for blind prediction experiments for ground motions using aftershocks, foreshock, and mainshock of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, Japan, to improve our understanding of the quality of state-of-the-art methods on the reproducibility of the effects of surface geology on seismic motions. In the blind predictions, 1D, 2D, and 3D methods, Green's function methods, spectral ratio approaches, and other approaches were applied. As for PGA/PGV, acceleration/velocity duration, Fourier spectrum, pseudo-velocity response spectrum, and site amplification factors, the observed values are mostly within the range of average ± σ of all the predictions in the case of weak and strong ground motions. The results of the mean absolute percentage errors for these indices show that the applied methods can predict weak and strong ground motions for the three components in the range of one-half to twice the observations. The average goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores for weak and strong ground motions indicate either a very good fit (6.5–8) or a good fit (4.5–6.5) for the three components. Finally, examples of the categorized methods are quite limited; however, results indicate that the predictions by all the categorized methods can adequately reproduce weak and strong ground motions within either a very good or good fit. Although we could not find a significant difference in the results from the categorized methods, scores by the 2D and 3D methods in the frequency range of 0.5–1 and 1–2 Hz for all the blind predictions are higher than the scores by the other methods. The GOF score for the part after the S-wave by the 2D and 3D methods is higher than that by the 1D method. This supports that the predictions by the 2D and 3D methods due to the accounting of the proper geometry could reproduce the basin-induced and/or basin-transduced surface waves excited by the basin-edge effect more than the 1D method using the earthquake record observed at the reference site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1D velocity profiles at a strong motion station in the northern part of the Kumamoto plain, Japan, were submitted in Step-1 of the blind prediction exercise of strong ground motions in the sixth international symposium on effects of surface geology on seismic motion (ESG6). Individual participants were requested to estimate a 1D S-wave velocity profile of sedimentary layers from the given data obtained by microtremor array explorations and surface-wave explorations at the site. This paper reports the target site, methods used by the individual participants, and the submitted results. More than half of the participants estimated the phase velocities of the Rayleigh-wave in the frequency range from 0.53 to 29.8 Hz. The statistical analysis of the phase velocity dispersion curves indicates that the standard deviation was below 40 m/s at the frequencies above 3.4 Hz, and it was below 20 m/s above 20 Hz. The S-wave velocity profiles are also similar to a depth of 20 m. The standard deviation was below 45 m/s. The average S-wave velocity in the top 30 m from the surface is 207.3 ± 60.7 m/s for the submitted profiles. The large variation is related to the introduction of the near-surface low velocity layers. The large variation of the S-wave velocities was found in the deep part. The average S-wave velocity at a depth of 1500 m was 2674 m/s with the standard deviation of 786 m/s. We compared 1D amplifications for the submitted profiles. Common peaks can be identified at 0.3–0.4 Hz and 1–2 Hz, excluding two teams. However, the amplifications vary much in the frequency range higher than 4 Hz. Through the experiment, it was found that the dispersion curves and the shallow S-wave velocity structures are estimated with a low standard deviation among the participants. Further development of the techniques for deep S-wave velocity profiling was found to be required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

S-net is a large-scale ocean bottom (OB) network in the Japan Trench area, consisting of inline-type 150 observatories equipped with seismometers and pressure gauges. Among them, 41 observatories have been buried about one meter beneath the seafloors in the shallow water regions (water depth <1500 m). We analyzed the strong-motion data recorded at the S-net sites from earthquakes with magnitudes 3.5 < Mw ≤ 7 and focal depths < 70 km to understand the site amplification effect on the recorded motions. We used the spectral inversion technique and obtained some fundamental properties of the earthquake source spectra, path attenuation, and site factors from the horizontal-component S-wave portions of the recordings. We obtained that the source spectra followed the ω - 2 source model generally well, and the estimated magnitudes were mostly within ± 0.3 magnitude units of the catalog magnitudes. The stress drops increased systematically with the focal depths, and the values for the shallow earthquakes in the Pacific Plate were higher than those for the interplate earthquakes with comparable focal depths. The path-averaged quality factors were generally frequency-dependent and were somewhat larger than those in the past studies. The peak site frequencies ranged between about 0.2 and 10 Hz, while the peak amplification factors ranged between 10 and 50. Even though the peak frequencies and amplification factors differed from site to site, the peak frequencies were mostly higher than 2 Hz at the outer trench stations, while they were lower than 2 Hz at many inner trench stations. The amplification factors at a few OB sites in the shallow water regions were comparable with the theoretical ones computed from the 1-D subsea model. The amplification factors at intermediate frequencies (~ 0.3 to 2 Hz) generally increased with P-wave travel time in the sediments estimated from the multi-channel seismic survey. At about 20% of the sites (mainly at the unburied stations), spurious site spectra were recognized at frequencies higher than about 4 Hz. If the site spectra between 4 and 10 Hz are required, using only the X-component records is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a new waveform inversion method to estimate the 2D S-wave velocity structure of deep sedimentary layers using broadband Love waves. As a preprocessing operation in our inversion scheme, we decompose earthquake observation records into velocity waveforms for periods of 1 s each. Then, we include in the inversion only those periods for which the assumption of 2D propagation holds, which we propose to determine through a principal component analysis. A linearized iterative inversion analysis for the selected Love wave segments filtered for periods of 1 s each allows a detailed estimation of the boundary shapes of interfaces over the seismic bedrock with an S-wave velocity of approximately 3 km/s. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the technique with applications to observed seismograms in the Kanto Plain, Japan. The differences between the estimated and existing velocity structure models are remarkable at the basin edges. Our results show remarkable differences from previous existing structural models, particularly near the basin edges while being in good agreement with the surface geology. Since a subsurface structure at a basin edge strongly affects the earthquake ground motions in a basin with the generation of surface waves, our method can provide a detailed model of a complex S-wave velocity structure at an edge part for strong ground motion prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To evaluate local site effects in Kumamoto City, we installed six temporary seismic stations along a 6-km north-south survey line in the city immediately after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake foreshock (Mj 6.4), which occurred on April 14, 2016. Seismic data from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mj 7.3), which occurred on April 16, 2016, were successfully recorded at two sites and indicated large amplitudes in the frequency range of 0.5-3 Hz. Site amplifications estimated from weak ground motion data, with a station at Mt. Kinbo used as a reference, are relatively variable along this survey line; however, site amplification factors in the frequency range of 0.5-3 Hz are not large enough to explain the amplitudes produced by the main shock. Nevertheless, site amplifications estimated from strong ground motion data recorded at the two sites during the main shock are large in the frequency range of 1-3 Hz. These findings reveal that the strong ground motions in the frequency range of 1-3 Hz were enhanced by nonlinear behavior of the subsurface soil in Kumamoto City. Moreover, it is observed that the frequency contents of the main shock data in the frequency range of 0.7-3 Hz differ significantly between the two sites, despite the proximity of these sites (600-m interval). Therefore, we also performed single-station microtremor measurements with an interval distance of approximately 100 m between these two sites. We confirmed that the peak frequencies of the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios of microtremors have trends that are similar to those of the site amplification factors between the two sites. However, these results could not explain the differences in strong ground motions observed at the two sites during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shallow S-wave velocity V profiles were estimated for 26 temporary strong motion observation sites surrounding the epicenters of a sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. The microtremor array method was used to gather the dispersion characteristics of Rayleigh waves. V profiles were obtained by inverting the dispersion curves for each site and those of three permanent strong motion stations that recorded the sequence of seismic events. The shallow V profiles near two of the permanent strong motion stations in the town of Mashiki were almost identical. However, the V profiles at other stations varied. The V profiles were found to have the common feature of the uppermost low-velocity layer being widely distributed from Mashiki to the village of Minami-Aso, and it was especially thick in the areas that suffered heavy damage. This low-velocity layer was a major contributor to the site amplification. The horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios of the microtremors indicate that both the shallow soil and deep sedimentary layers may control the site response characteristics over a broad frequency range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have conducted observation of earthquake ground motion due to aftershocks of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake at 26 temporary stations in damaged areas of Kumamoto city, Mashiki town, Nishihara village and Minami-Aso village (partly in Aso city) in Kumamoto prefecture, Japan. Continuous recordings of ground acceleration were acquired in a period of about 1 month after the occurrence of the main shock on April 16, 2016. This preliminary analysis of the observed records clearly indicates strong effects of local geological condition in the heavily damaged districts in Mashiki town and Nishihara village. Spectral ratios of the ground motions at the stations in the severely damaged districts to those at the reference sites are characterized by large amplitudes at periods of 0.5-1 s. Peak ground velocities and seismic intensities are also large at the sites. Seismic intensities at the stations in the damaged districts are larger by an intensity of one at the maximum than those at the stations with the minor damage. The ground motions at the stations in Kumamoto city are rich in later phases with long duration suggesting basin effects. However, site amplification effects could not clearly be identified at the stations in the Minami-Aso area from the results in the conventional spectral ratio approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the cause of destructive ground motion during the 2018 Hokkaido eastern Iburi earthquake. We conducted strong motion observations of aftershocks and microtremors and the surface wave method in the damaged areas of the town of Mukawa, Hokkaido prefecture, Japan. The ground accelerations were continuously recorded during a period of approximately 3 months after the main shock on September 6, 2018. The heavily damaged buildings were mainly situated around the strong motion station (HKD126) in Mukawa town. Such concentration of damage can be explained by the strong power that was observed in the 1–2 s period of the response spectrum at this station. We estimated the S-wave velocity profiles of this station site and a temporary station site that was installed on a nearby hill. The estimated S-wave velocity, which was inverted from phase velocity structures with the microtremor array and the surface wave method observations explained the difference in the SH-wave amplification characteristics between the two sites. An analysis of HKD126 and the temporarily observed records clearly indicates the strong effects of the local geological conditions on the heavily damaged area of Mukawa. The strong ground motion power generated during the main shock in Mukawa for 1–2 s period was mainly amplified by this shallow underground velocity structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]