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Do 'green' environmental concerns – such as about biodiversity, climate change, pollution – deter citizens from having children? This paper reports the first longitudinal evidence consistent with that increasingly discussed hypothesis. It follows through time a random sample of thousands of initially childless men and women in the UK. The paper shows that those individuals who are committed to a green lifestyle are found to be substantially less likely to go on later to have offspring. Probit and Weibull survival models are estimated. The results are robust to controlling for people's age, education, income, marital status, mental health, life satisfaction, optimism, and physical health. The paper's key estimated effect-size is substantial. A person entirely unconcerned about environmental behaviour is estimated to be just over 50% more likely to go on to have a child than a deeply committed environmentalist. • Will fertility decline because humans become so concerned about environmental damage? • Using UK data on thousands of randomly selected young adults, we provide the first longitudinal evidence that those who have environmental concerns and act in a 'green' way go on to have fewer children. • The estimated effect-size is large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the potential implications of the proposed European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and the recently adopted United Kingdom (UK) legislation on deforestation-free supply chains (henceforth 'the legislation') for different stakeholders in Brazil. These regulations intend to address global commodity-driven deforestation and forest degradation by ensuring that targeted commodities and products placed on (or exported from) markets are of minimal risk of being associated with - in the EU - deforestation and forest degradation or - in the UK - illegal deforestation. The paper examines potential compliance readiness in cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soybean and tropical timber supply chains in Brazil, indicating specific challenges that may arise. Through the construction of a "Compliance Likelihood Index", our research provides comparable indications to policymakers on sectors and stakeholders that may need stronger support to meet the requirements, in order to maintain Brazil's access to EU and UK markets. The paper indicates that coffee is the sector with the highest level of incentivization and smallest hurdles for compliance, while the cattle sector may face stronger challenges to rapidly adjust its production system towards a deforestation-free value chain and prove compliance. Results of our analysis also highlight the need for collaboration between the EU/UK and Brazil in order to promote alignment between domestic and demand-side legislations so that they are mutually reinforcing. Results of this exercise, which has a focus on the producer-country view of demand-side legislation, will contribute to discussions on the merits of different approaches to strengthen the governance of deforestation-risk commodity trade. [Display omitted] • Brazil's coffee sector may currently have the greatest likelihood of ready compliance. • Cattle may be the sector to which the regulations may pose the greatest challenges. • The EU and UK should focus on providing financial means and technical assistance for smallholders. • The EU and UK legislation will need to be accompanied by domestic policies and regulations in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern economies rely on economic growth for stability and prosperity. Further, periods of stagnation and recession are currently associated with poor health and wellbeing outcomes for citizens. However, 50 years of research indicates that this state of dependency is ecologically unsustainable. It is therefore critical that we better understand the growth dependency of our economies and welfare systems, and how to overcome it. In this paper we first offer a working definition of growth dependency, clarifying its core dimensions. Next, taking the UK's adult social care sector as a case study, we argue that growth dependencies emerge in the welfare state as a result of three distinct dynamics: 1) growth in manifest needs; 2) labour productivity growth; 3) the pursuit of economic rents. Lastly, we propose a novel, sector-led framework for identifying, analysing and transforming growth dependencies. We make the case that the growth dependency of the welfare state is not inevitable, but is instead the product of specific social, economic and structural factors that can be disrupted and transformed, if we can find the political will to do so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy poverty is driven by four factors: poverty; high energy prices; energy-inefficiency; and specific household characteristics. Increasingly refined definitions of energy poverty (and/or vulnerability) identify types or locations of households most likely to be suffering it. But there is also a place for a different approach, considering poverty reduction directly, as poverty is a necessary component within all energy poverty definitions. This paper investigates how high the UK's top marginal tax rates would need to be, to provide funds to lift low-income UK households above the poverty threshold as defined by the low-income-high-cost (LIHC) and 10% energy poverty indicators. It finds that the increased top tax rates would still be in line with those of other European OECD countries. Using recent and new research on income elasticities of CO2 emissions, it then estimates the net direct effects on CO2 emissions of this redistribution. For both scenarios the most likely effect is a small reduction in net CO2 emissions. Further, indirect downward pressures on CO2 emissions due to reduced income among the highest earners are likely to lead to yet more favourable outcomes for net CO2 emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The saltmarsh carbon storage potential is a key topic in blue carbon research and climate policy. Ecosystem service valuations provide valuable information to policymakers for habitat management and climate change mitigation policies. Yet, only few saltmarsh valuation studies have included the carbon storage service in the UK context. This paper investigates how the public values saltmarsh ecosystem services, focussing on the carbon storage service. We used a choice experiment to elicit the willingness to pay (WTP) of a representative sample of the Scottish public to support interventions that would maintain or improve the provision of these services. Furthermore, we tested the effect of information on individuals' preferences and WTP with a split sample approach where one group received a treatment in the form of additional information. We found that (i) all attributes had a significant influence on individuals' choices; (ii) both groups had, on average, a positive marginal WTP for all presented ecosystem services; (iii) the treated sample had, on average, no significantly different marginal WTP for carbon storage than the control group. This paper adds to the limited literature on the saltmarsh carbon storage ecosystem service and demonstrates a developed nation's public's openness to nature-based climate change mitigation solutions. [Display omitted] • The Scottish public on average prefers saltmarsh management over the status quo. • Providing additional information reduced heterogeneity in WTP for carbon storage. • Most respondents preferred an improvement of all saltmarsh ecosystem services. • Therefore management should focus on both climate change mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Regenerative eco-innovation , demanding radical and architectural change to restore, renew and revitalise the natural system, is arguably the most important type of eco-innovation to address the pressing challenges of sustainable development. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of the regulatory framework and wider contextual conditions in facilitating or hindering regenerative eco-innovations. This is especially relevant for the built environment, a sector that is highly regulated and where rates of innovation are typically slow. We combined a review of relevant archival material with an interview programme involving key stakeholders from the UK's built environment sector. We contribute to the literature by extending and elaborating our understanding of regenerative eco-innovation in two ways. First, we extend the literature on regulation and eco-innovation by exploring what constitutes high quality regulation in the context of regenerative development. Second, we elaborate on how regenerative eco-innovations are facilitated or hindered by wider contextual conditions. Our paper also has practical utility. More understanding of how effective regulation can support regenerative eco-innovations, and of how the wider contextual conditions facilitate or hinder regenerative eco-innovations, allows industry and government to respond better to the urgent global challenge of closing material cycles. Highlights • Explores the influence of regulation and wider contextual conditions on regenerative eco-innovation • Focuses on a case study of extracted materials in the UK built environment sector • Extends and elaborates our understanding of regenerative eco-innovation in two ways: • what constitutes high quality regulation in the context of regenerative development • how the regulatory roots of regenerative eco-innovation are affected by wider contextual conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric nitrogen pollution has severe impacts on biodiversity, but approaches to value them are limited. This paper develops a spatially explicit methodology to value the benefits from improvements in biodiversity resulting from current policy initiatives to reduce nitrogen emissions. Using the UK as a case study, we quantify nitrogen impacts on plant diversity in four habitats: heathland, acid grassland, dunes and bogs, at fine spatial resolution. Focusing on non-use values for biodiversity we apply value-transfer based on household's willingness to pay to avoid changes in plant species richness, and calculate the benefit of projected emission declines of 37% for nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and 6% for ammonia (NH 3 ) over the scenario period 2007–2020. The annualised benefit resulting from these pollutant declines is £32.7 m (£4.4 m to £109.7 m, 95% Confidence Interval), with the greatest benefit accruing from heathland and acid grassland due to their large area. We also calculate damage costs per unit of NO 2 and NH 3 emitted, to quantify some of the environmental impacts of air pollution for use alongside damage costs for human health in policy appraisal. The benefit is £103 (£33 to £237) per tonne of NO 2 saved, and £414 (£139 to £1022) per tonne of NH 3 saved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pests and diseases are an existential threat to trees in forests and woodlands. There is, therefore, a pressing need to use ecological and bioeconomic models to inform forest managers on control and mitigation strategies. For example, the incidence of Dothistroma needle blight in the UK has increased rapidly since the 1990s, and it is a significant threat to the productivity of commercial forestry. Climatic changes are expected to exacerbate this problem further. Control of the disease in the UK primarily focuses on good stand management through pre-commercial thinning; similar practices are widely used in commercial forests worldwide. Forest managers would benefit from evidence on the effectiveness of this precautionary strategy (in comparison to its alternatives) to reduce disease impacts and increase the value extracted from timber. In this paper, we develop a bioeconomic model to determine the economically optimal harvesting regime – in terms of thinning and rotation – of an even-aged plantation under the risk of an invading pest. We extend a Schaefer–Faustmann model to include a compartmental epidemiological system that governs timber growth and disease spread. We analyse a set of management regimes, including the timing of the final clear-felling of the forest and the timing and level of earlier thinning. Thus, in our approach, forest managers decide whether and when to thin and must balance (i) harvesting before infection destroys the timber's value and (ii) exploiting the forest's density-dependent growth. We use a sensitivity analysis with respect to the disease spread and impact on the tree dynamics to demonstrate that, in the presence of disease, thinning can significantly improve the net present value of the plantation if applied correctly. Furthermore, if thinning reduces the transmission rate significantly, the priority is to protect the final harvest, and rotations extend while the thinning time shortens. Our study provides a framework to help design appropriate forest management strategies in the presence of disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecosystem services concept has enjoyed widespread interest and recognition in recent years. In particular, the monetary valuation and commodification of ecosystem services in form of payments for ecosystem services schemes and the development of new markets for ecosystem services has appreciated large popularity. However, who is behind this strong momentum towards ecosystem services and especially why is less well known. In this paper I aim to shed light on this by looking specifically at advocates of the concept of ecosystem services, using forestry in the United Kingdom (UK) as an example. I explore the motivations for accommodating or actively pursuing ecosystem services thinking in this important sector through interviews with forestry and conservation experts. Four prominent groups with a specific interest in the ecosystem services concept in the context of UK forestry are governmental organisations, non-governmental conservation organisations, private forest owners, and the timber and forest industry. These stakeholder groups are interested in this new perspective, chiefly, but not exclusively, because (1) it is required under international obligations; (2) it is in line with dominant market political philosophy; (3) it holds the promise to include the environment more fully into prevailing economic decision-making processes; (4) it can help to draw more attention to biodiversity conservation; (5) it holds the promise of new sources of income from both public and private sources; and (6) it can be used as a convenient argument to promote further tree planting. However, these groups have different, but frequently overlapping reasons for pursuing this new perspective. The results provide a baseline and important insights into who was embracing ecosystem services thinking and why during the early years of the adoption of this approach in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of new domestic properties contributes 2% of UK territorial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The UK government aims to increase construction of new homes in England by almost a third, to 300,000 per year by the mid-2020s, whilst simultaneously reducing emissions in line with its net zero 2050 commitment. In this paper, for the first time, the upfront embodied carbon cost of constructing domestic properties in the UK by 2050 is quantified. A bottom-up analysis modelling seven domestic building typologies was used, with the material use for each based on current UK practice. Possible interventions to reduce the embodied carbon cost are then analysed. The results show that maintaining today's levels of construction will use the remaining 2050 carbon budget apportioned to house building (160 MtCO 2 e) by 2036, and cause a substantial increase in domestic floor area per capita. However, construction could reduce and cease entirely by 2035 without reducing today's living floor area per capita (37.5 m 2), resulting in a substantially reduced cumulative embodied carbon of 88 MtCO 2 e by 2050. Increasing living floor area per capita to the EU average of 40.5 m2, can be achieved within the carbon budget and with zero emissions by 2050. In contrast, increasing house building to government targets will result in double the cumulative emissions than the budget allows. A number of carbon reduction interventions were then investigated. It was found that of to 75% embodied carbon savings can be achieved by simultaneously changing the typology share, increasing material efficiency, increasing conversion from non-residential buildings and increasing the use of timber for structural purposes. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a detailed review of the basis and prospects for United Kingdom (UK) proposals for the most ambitious mainstream social, economic, and environmental policy program of the 21st century: the Green New Deal (GND), providing critical reflection for its implementation at a local or regional level. Through a review of academic, policy and book publications we examine the key proposed features of a UK GND, identifying five core elements: financial reforms; green infrastructure investment; financing the GND; ownership structures; and economic, social and climate justice. We subsequently review these policy areas through the lens of multi-level governance (MLG) to understand what scales of policy action are required for these aims to be achieved. We find that, whilst core elements of a UK GND, such as reforms to the financial system, and expansionary fiscal and monetary policy require policy change at national and supra-national level, the majority of GND investments require implementation at the local level. We suggest that, in the context of contemporary UK MLG, there are challenges for fully funding and delivering a GND without a national programme, while highlighting emerging options for coordinating and implementing a GND by local government actors, in the absence of national support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable consumption is a growing niche with an increasing number of initiatives aimed at lowering domestic environmental consumption footprints. Third-party assured product eco-labelling has emerged as a key governance mechanism to promote sustainable consumption. However, does the purchasing of eco-labelled products really support a transition towards more sustainable consumption? In this paper, we explore eco-labelling through the lens of the rebound literature. While theorizing of the rebound effect originated in energy economics and has long been centred on eco-efficiency, we extend its rationale to products that are associated with a price premium in return for added environmental quality attributes. Reporting on two inter-related studies into the link between purchasing of environmentally friendly products and different types of environmental resource consumption, we find that eco-labelled products flourish in more affluent economies that are characterized by higher levels of overall resource consumption; and that willingness to consume environmentally friendly products is positively related to higher individual carbon, water and material footprints. Hence, we argue that eco-labelling in its current form is inextricably linked to higher – rather than lower – levels of resource consumption. Consequently, the governance mechanism that underpins eco-labelling is associated with an indirect behavioural consumer rebound effect. • We report on two studies into environmentally friendly product purchasing • Eco-labels thrive in more affluent EU-27 markets • In the UK, willingness to pay for eco-labels is linked to higher resource use • This pattern is particularly pronounced for carbon footprints • Eco-labelling reflects an indirect behavioural rebound effect [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research into the determinants of household energy consumption has aimed to incorporate findings from economics, sociology and psychology in order to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the factors determining energy demand. The current paper contributes to this nascent stream of literature by studying the relationship between risk attitudes, trust propensity and energy consumption at the household level. Drawing on the British Household Panel Survey, a well-known data set in the context of energy studies, I show that trust is negatively correlated with household energy demand, while higher risk tolerance leads to increases in residential energy use. Potential explanations for these findings are investigated, suggesting that risk preferences may be related with overall appliance stock and the size of the rebound effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents findings from a nationally representative household survey on the tendency to regret purchases across 20 product groups. The survey reveals that the vast majority of adults in Great Britain (82%) have regretted a purchase in the past. Post-purchase regret is shown to be particularly prevalent for clothing & footwear and takeaway food. The tendency to regret purchases appears to reduce with age and to be more common amongst white collar rather than blue collar workers. Combining survey results with average price estimates gives an estimated, aggregate, annual expenditure on regretted purchases of £5–25bn, equivalent to 2–10% of annual consumer spending on goods in Great Britain. These findings are interesting because they suggest that there is a degree of self-assessed over-consumption that, if reduced, could help to reduce pressures on the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The circular flow diagram, whether in its limited form in macroeconomics, or broader form in ecological economics, depicts a duality of flows – physical resources in one direction with financial transactions in the opposite. Biophysical models of the economy can be constructed based on the physical flows and their associated stocks. In previous work, I demonstrated how the accumulation of wealth – measured by the capital stock – can be established using a biophysical model. With capital, energy use, and the distribution of labour determined by biophysical economics, here I investigate the range of potential distributions of wealth – profits versus wages – that follow in the political economy. The analysis is conducted using a four-sector model of Great Britain's economy from 1760 to 1913, including agriculture, coal mining, construction & materials, and production of goods and services. Energy price is a key variable in the model, influencing the distribution of income between different sectors. Taking the price of coal at historically observed values, the distribution of total factor income per worker is plotted as a trade-off between annual wages and profits per worker for example years of 1761, 1817, and 1871. The plots reveal how possible alternative distributions of income might be achieved under different political-economic regimes, subject to the same biophysical constraints. Conclusions are framed in the context of the grand challenges faced by ecological economists of developing environmentally sustainable economies with a just and equitable sharing of resources. [Display omitted] • The paper frames the challenge of wealth distribution subject to biophysical constraints. • Prices, wages, and profits are added to a biophysical model of the Industrial Revolution. • The distribution of total factor income per worker is posed as a trade-off between wages and profits per worker. • Changes in energy price are shown to impact the distribution of income between and within sectors. • The influence of the political economy on the biophysical economy is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]