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Do 'green' environmental concerns – such as about biodiversity, climate change, pollution – deter citizens from having children? This paper reports the first longitudinal evidence consistent with that increasingly discussed hypothesis. It follows through time a random sample of thousands of initially childless men and women in the UK. The paper shows that those individuals who are committed to a green lifestyle are found to be substantially less likely to go on later to have offspring. Probit and Weibull survival models are estimated. The results are robust to controlling for people's age, education, income, marital status, mental health, life satisfaction, optimism, and physical health. The paper's key estimated effect-size is substantial. A person entirely unconcerned about environmental behaviour is estimated to be just over 50% more likely to go on to have a child than a deeply committed environmentalist. • Will fertility decline because humans become so concerned about environmental damage? • Using UK data on thousands of randomly selected young adults, we provide the first longitudinal evidence that those who have environmental concerns and act in a 'green' way go on to have fewer children. • The estimated effect-size is large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the potential implications of the proposed European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and the recently adopted United Kingdom (UK) legislation on deforestation-free supply chains (henceforth 'the legislation') for different stakeholders in Brazil. These regulations intend to address global commodity-driven deforestation and forest degradation by ensuring that targeted commodities and products placed on (or exported from) markets are of minimal risk of being associated with - in the EU - deforestation and forest degradation or - in the UK - illegal deforestation. The paper examines potential compliance readiness in cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soybean and tropical timber supply chains in Brazil, indicating specific challenges that may arise. Through the construction of a "Compliance Likelihood Index", our research provides comparable indications to policymakers on sectors and stakeholders that may need stronger support to meet the requirements, in order to maintain Brazil's access to EU and UK markets. The paper indicates that coffee is the sector with the highest level of incentivization and smallest hurdles for compliance, while the cattle sector may face stronger challenges to rapidly adjust its production system towards a deforestation-free value chain and prove compliance. Results of our analysis also highlight the need for collaboration between the EU/UK and Brazil in order to promote alignment between domestic and demand-side legislations so that they are mutually reinforcing. Results of this exercise, which has a focus on the producer-country view of demand-side legislation, will contribute to discussions on the merits of different approaches to strengthen the governance of deforestation-risk commodity trade. [Display omitted] • Brazil's coffee sector may currently have the greatest likelihood of ready compliance. • Cattle may be the sector to which the regulations may pose the greatest challenges. • The EU and UK should focus on providing financial means and technical assistance for smallholders. • The EU and UK legislation will need to be accompanied by domestic policies and regulations in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern economies rely on economic growth for stability and prosperity. Further, periods of stagnation and recession are currently associated with poor health and wellbeing outcomes for citizens. However, 50 years of research indicates that this state of dependency is ecologically unsustainable. It is therefore critical that we better understand the growth dependency of our economies and welfare systems, and how to overcome it. In this paper we first offer a working definition of growth dependency, clarifying its core dimensions. Next, taking the UK's adult social care sector as a case study, we argue that growth dependencies emerge in the welfare state as a result of three distinct dynamics: 1) growth in manifest needs; 2) labour productivity growth; 3) the pursuit of economic rents. Lastly, we propose a novel, sector-led framework for identifying, analysing and transforming growth dependencies. We make the case that the growth dependency of the welfare state is not inevitable, but is instead the product of specific social, economic and structural factors that can be disrupted and transformed, if we can find the political will to do so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy poverty is driven by four factors: poverty; high energy prices; energy-inefficiency; and specific household characteristics. Increasingly refined definitions of energy poverty (and/or vulnerability) identify types or locations of households most likely to be suffering it. But there is also a place for a different approach, considering poverty reduction directly, as poverty is a necessary component within all energy poverty definitions. This paper investigates how high the UK's top marginal tax rates would need to be, to provide funds to lift low-income UK households above the poverty threshold as defined by the low-income-high-cost (LIHC) and 10% energy poverty indicators. It finds that the increased top tax rates would still be in line with those of other European OECD countries. Using recent and new research on income elasticities of CO2 emissions, it then estimates the net direct effects on CO2 emissions of this redistribution. For both scenarios the most likely effect is a small reduction in net CO2 emissions. Further, indirect downward pressures on CO2 emissions due to reduced income among the highest earners are likely to lead to yet more favourable outcomes for net CO2 emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]