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Do 'green' environmental concerns – such as about biodiversity, climate change, pollution – deter citizens from having children? This paper reports the first longitudinal evidence consistent with that increasingly discussed hypothesis. It follows through time a random sample of thousands of initially childless men and women in the UK. The paper shows that those individuals who are committed to a green lifestyle are found to be substantially less likely to go on later to have offspring. Probit and Weibull survival models are estimated. The results are robust to controlling for people's age, education, income, marital status, mental health, life satisfaction, optimism, and physical health. The paper's key estimated effect-size is substantial. A person entirely unconcerned about environmental behaviour is estimated to be just over 50% more likely to go on to have a child than a deeply committed environmentalist. • Will fertility decline because humans become so concerned about environmental damage? • Using UK data on thousands of randomly selected young adults, we provide the first longitudinal evidence that those who have environmental concerns and act in a 'green' way go on to have fewer children. • The estimated effect-size is large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the potential implications of the proposed European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and the recently adopted United Kingdom (UK) legislation on deforestation-free supply chains (henceforth 'the legislation') for different stakeholders in Brazil. These regulations intend to address global commodity-driven deforestation and forest degradation by ensuring that targeted commodities and products placed on (or exported from) markets are of minimal risk of being associated with - in the EU - deforestation and forest degradation or - in the UK - illegal deforestation. The paper examines potential compliance readiness in cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soybean and tropical timber supply chains in Brazil, indicating specific challenges that may arise. Through the construction of a "Compliance Likelihood Index", our research provides comparable indications to policymakers on sectors and stakeholders that may need stronger support to meet the requirements, in order to maintain Brazil's access to EU and UK markets. The paper indicates that coffee is the sector with the highest level of incentivization and smallest hurdles for compliance, while the cattle sector may face stronger challenges to rapidly adjust its production system towards a deforestation-free value chain and prove compliance. Results of our analysis also highlight the need for collaboration between the EU/UK and Brazil in order to promote alignment between domestic and demand-side legislations so that they are mutually reinforcing. Results of this exercise, which has a focus on the producer-country view of demand-side legislation, will contribute to discussions on the merits of different approaches to strengthen the governance of deforestation-risk commodity trade. [Display omitted] • Brazil's coffee sector may currently have the greatest likelihood of ready compliance. • Cattle may be the sector to which the regulations may pose the greatest challenges. • The EU and UK should focus on providing financial means and technical assistance for smallholders. • The EU and UK legislation will need to be accompanied by domestic policies and regulations in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern economies rely on economic growth for stability and prosperity. Further, periods of stagnation and recession are currently associated with poor health and wellbeing outcomes for citizens. However, 50 years of research indicates that this state of dependency is ecologically unsustainable. It is therefore critical that we better understand the growth dependency of our economies and welfare systems, and how to overcome it. In this paper we first offer a working definition of growth dependency, clarifying its core dimensions. Next, taking the UK's adult social care sector as a case study, we argue that growth dependencies emerge in the welfare state as a result of three distinct dynamics: 1) growth in manifest needs; 2) labour productivity growth; 3) the pursuit of economic rents. Lastly, we propose a novel, sector-led framework for identifying, analysing and transforming growth dependencies. We make the case that the growth dependency of the welfare state is not inevitable, but is instead the product of specific social, economic and structural factors that can be disrupted and transformed, if we can find the political will to do so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy poverty is driven by four factors: poverty; high energy prices; energy-inefficiency; and specific household characteristics. Increasingly refined definitions of energy poverty (and/or vulnerability) identify types or locations of households most likely to be suffering it. But there is also a place for a different approach, considering poverty reduction directly, as poverty is a necessary component within all energy poverty definitions. This paper investigates how high the UK's top marginal tax rates would need to be, to provide funds to lift low-income UK households above the poverty threshold as defined by the low-income-high-cost (LIHC) and 10% energy poverty indicators. It finds that the increased top tax rates would still be in line with those of other European OECD countries. Using recent and new research on income elasticities of CO2 emissions, it then estimates the net direct effects on CO2 emissions of this redistribution. For both scenarios the most likely effect is a small reduction in net CO2 emissions. Further, indirect downward pressures on CO2 emissions due to reduced income among the highest earners are likely to lead to yet more favourable outcomes for net CO2 emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The saltmarsh carbon storage potential is a key topic in blue carbon research and climate policy. Ecosystem service valuations provide valuable information to policymakers for habitat management and climate change mitigation policies. Yet, only few saltmarsh valuation studies have included the carbon storage service in the UK context. This paper investigates how the public values saltmarsh ecosystem services, focussing on the carbon storage service. We used a choice experiment to elicit the willingness to pay (WTP) of a representative sample of the Scottish public to support interventions that would maintain or improve the provision of these services. Furthermore, we tested the effect of information on individuals' preferences and WTP with a split sample approach where one group received a treatment in the form of additional information. We found that (i) all attributes had a significant influence on individuals' choices; (ii) both groups had, on average, a positive marginal WTP for all presented ecosystem services; (iii) the treated sample had, on average, no significantly different marginal WTP for carbon storage than the control group. This paper adds to the limited literature on the saltmarsh carbon storage ecosystem service and demonstrates a developed nation's public's openness to nature-based climate change mitigation solutions. [Display omitted] • The Scottish public on average prefers saltmarsh management over the status quo. • Providing additional information reduced heterogeneity in WTP for carbon storage. • Most respondents preferred an improvement of all saltmarsh ecosystem services. • Therefore management should focus on both climate change mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pests and diseases are an existential threat to trees in forests and woodlands. There is, therefore, a pressing need to use ecological and bioeconomic models to inform forest managers on control and mitigation strategies. For example, the incidence of Dothistroma needle blight in the UK has increased rapidly since the 1990s, and it is a significant threat to the productivity of commercial forestry. Climatic changes are expected to exacerbate this problem further. Control of the disease in the UK primarily focuses on good stand management through pre-commercial thinning; similar practices are widely used in commercial forests worldwide. Forest managers would benefit from evidence on the effectiveness of this precautionary strategy (in comparison to its alternatives) to reduce disease impacts and increase the value extracted from timber. In this paper, we develop a bioeconomic model to determine the economically optimal harvesting regime – in terms of thinning and rotation – of an even-aged plantation under the risk of an invading pest. We extend a Schaefer–Faustmann model to include a compartmental epidemiological system that governs timber growth and disease spread. We analyse a set of management regimes, including the timing of the final clear-felling of the forest and the timing and level of earlier thinning. Thus, in our approach, forest managers decide whether and when to thin and must balance (i) harvesting before infection destroys the timber's value and (ii) exploiting the forest's density-dependent growth. We use a sensitivity analysis with respect to the disease spread and impact on the tree dynamics to demonstrate that, in the presence of disease, thinning can significantly improve the net present value of the plantation if applied correctly. Furthermore, if thinning reduces the transmission rate significantly, the priority is to protect the final harvest, and rotations extend while the thinning time shortens. Our study provides a framework to help design appropriate forest management strategies in the presence of disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of new domestic properties contributes 2% of UK territorial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The UK government aims to increase construction of new homes in England by almost a third, to 300,000 per year by the mid-2020s, whilst simultaneously reducing emissions in line with its net zero 2050 commitment. In this paper, for the first time, the upfront embodied carbon cost of constructing domestic properties in the UK by 2050 is quantified. A bottom-up analysis modelling seven domestic building typologies was used, with the material use for each based on current UK practice. Possible interventions to reduce the embodied carbon cost are then analysed. The results show that maintaining today's levels of construction will use the remaining 2050 carbon budget apportioned to house building (160 MtCO 2 e) by 2036, and cause a substantial increase in domestic floor area per capita. However, construction could reduce and cease entirely by 2035 without reducing today's living floor area per capita (37.5 m 2), resulting in a substantially reduced cumulative embodied carbon of 88 MtCO 2 e by 2050. Increasing living floor area per capita to the EU average of 40.5 m2, can be achieved within the carbon budget and with zero emissions by 2050. In contrast, increasing house building to government targets will result in double the cumulative emissions than the budget allows. A number of carbon reduction interventions were then investigated. It was found that of to 75% embodied carbon savings can be achieved by simultaneously changing the typology share, increasing material efficiency, increasing conversion from non-residential buildings and increasing the use of timber for structural purposes. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a detailed review of the basis and prospects for United Kingdom (UK) proposals for the most ambitious mainstream social, economic, and environmental policy program of the 21st century: the Green New Deal (GND), providing critical reflection for its implementation at a local or regional level. Through a review of academic, policy and book publications we examine the key proposed features of a UK GND, identifying five core elements: financial reforms; green infrastructure investment; financing the GND; ownership structures; and economic, social and climate justice. We subsequently review these policy areas through the lens of multi-level governance (MLG) to understand what scales of policy action are required for these aims to be achieved. We find that, whilst core elements of a UK GND, such as reforms to the financial system, and expansionary fiscal and monetary policy require policy change at national and supra-national level, the majority of GND investments require implementation at the local level. We suggest that, in the context of contemporary UK MLG, there are challenges for fully funding and delivering a GND without a national programme, while highlighting emerging options for coordinating and implementing a GND by local government actors, in the absence of national support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable consumption is a growing niche with an increasing number of initiatives aimed at lowering domestic environmental consumption footprints. Third-party assured product eco-labelling has emerged as a key governance mechanism to promote sustainable consumption. However, does the purchasing of eco-labelled products really support a transition towards more sustainable consumption? In this paper, we explore eco-labelling through the lens of the rebound literature. While theorizing of the rebound effect originated in energy economics and has long been centred on eco-efficiency, we extend its rationale to products that are associated with a price premium in return for added environmental quality attributes. Reporting on two inter-related studies into the link between purchasing of environmentally friendly products and different types of environmental resource consumption, we find that eco-labelled products flourish in more affluent economies that are characterized by higher levels of overall resource consumption; and that willingness to consume environmentally friendly products is positively related to higher individual carbon, water and material footprints. Hence, we argue that eco-labelling in its current form is inextricably linked to higher – rather than lower – levels of resource consumption. Consequently, the governance mechanism that underpins eco-labelling is associated with an indirect behavioural consumer rebound effect. • We report on two studies into environmentally friendly product purchasing • Eco-labels thrive in more affluent EU-27 markets • In the UK, willingness to pay for eco-labels is linked to higher resource use • This pattern is particularly pronounced for carbon footprints • Eco-labelling reflects an indirect behavioural rebound effect [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The circular flow diagram, whether in its limited form in macroeconomics, or broader form in ecological economics, depicts a duality of flows – physical resources in one direction with financial transactions in the opposite. Biophysical models of the economy can be constructed based on the physical flows and their associated stocks. In previous work, I demonstrated how the accumulation of wealth – measured by the capital stock – can be established using a biophysical model. With capital, energy use, and the distribution of labour determined by biophysical economics, here I investigate the range of potential distributions of wealth – profits versus wages – that follow in the political economy. The analysis is conducted using a four-sector model of Great Britain's economy from 1760 to 1913, including agriculture, coal mining, construction & materials, and production of goods and services. Energy price is a key variable in the model, influencing the distribution of income between different sectors. Taking the price of coal at historically observed values, the distribution of total factor income per worker is plotted as a trade-off between annual wages and profits per worker for example years of 1761, 1817, and 1871. The plots reveal how possible alternative distributions of income might be achieved under different political-economic regimes, subject to the same biophysical constraints. Conclusions are framed in the context of the grand challenges faced by ecological economists of developing environmentally sustainable economies with a just and equitable sharing of resources. [Display omitted] • The paper frames the challenge of wealth distribution subject to biophysical constraints. • Prices, wages, and profits are added to a biophysical model of the Industrial Revolution. • The distribution of total factor income per worker is posed as a trade-off between wages and profits per worker. • Changes in energy price are shown to impact the distribution of income between and within sectors. • The influence of the political economy on the biophysical economy is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]