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Do 'green' environmental concerns – such as about biodiversity, climate change, pollution – deter citizens from having children? This paper reports the first longitudinal evidence consistent with that increasingly discussed hypothesis. It follows through time a random sample of thousands of initially childless men and women in the UK. The paper shows that those individuals who are committed to a green lifestyle are found to be substantially less likely to go on later to have offspring. Probit and Weibull survival models are estimated. The results are robust to controlling for people's age, education, income, marital status, mental health, life satisfaction, optimism, and physical health. The paper's key estimated effect-size is substantial. A person entirely unconcerned about environmental behaviour is estimated to be just over 50% more likely to go on to have a child than a deeply committed environmentalist. • Will fertility decline because humans become so concerned about environmental damage? • Using UK data on thousands of randomly selected young adults, we provide the first longitudinal evidence that those who have environmental concerns and act in a 'green' way go on to have fewer children. • The estimated effect-size is large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the potential implications of the proposed European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and the recently adopted United Kingdom (UK) legislation on deforestation-free supply chains (henceforth 'the legislation') for different stakeholders in Brazil. These regulations intend to address global commodity-driven deforestation and forest degradation by ensuring that targeted commodities and products placed on (or exported from) markets are of minimal risk of being associated with - in the EU - deforestation and forest degradation or - in the UK - illegal deforestation. The paper examines potential compliance readiness in cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soybean and tropical timber supply chains in Brazil, indicating specific challenges that may arise. Through the construction of a "Compliance Likelihood Index", our research provides comparable indications to policymakers on sectors and stakeholders that may need stronger support to meet the requirements, in order to maintain Brazil's access to EU and UK markets. The paper indicates that coffee is the sector with the highest level of incentivization and smallest hurdles for compliance, while the cattle sector may face stronger challenges to rapidly adjust its production system towards a deforestation-free value chain and prove compliance. Results of our analysis also highlight the need for collaboration between the EU/UK and Brazil in order to promote alignment between domestic and demand-side legislations so that they are mutually reinforcing. Results of this exercise, which has a focus on the producer-country view of demand-side legislation, will contribute to discussions on the merits of different approaches to strengthen the governance of deforestation-risk commodity trade. [Display omitted] • Brazil's coffee sector may currently have the greatest likelihood of ready compliance. • Cattle may be the sector to which the regulations may pose the greatest challenges. • The EU and UK should focus on providing financial means and technical assistance for smallholders. • The EU and UK legislation will need to be accompanied by domestic policies and regulations in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern economies rely on economic growth for stability and prosperity. Further, periods of stagnation and recession are currently associated with poor health and wellbeing outcomes for citizens. However, 50 years of research indicates that this state of dependency is ecologically unsustainable. It is therefore critical that we better understand the growth dependency of our economies and welfare systems, and how to overcome it. In this paper we first offer a working definition of growth dependency, clarifying its core dimensions. Next, taking the UK's adult social care sector as a case study, we argue that growth dependencies emerge in the welfare state as a result of three distinct dynamics: 1) growth in manifest needs; 2) labour productivity growth; 3) the pursuit of economic rents. Lastly, we propose a novel, sector-led framework for identifying, analysing and transforming growth dependencies. We make the case that the growth dependency of the welfare state is not inevitable, but is instead the product of specific social, economic and structural factors that can be disrupted and transformed, if we can find the political will to do so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy poverty is driven by four factors: poverty; high energy prices; energy-inefficiency; and specific household characteristics. Increasingly refined definitions of energy poverty (and/or vulnerability) identify types or locations of households most likely to be suffering it. But there is also a place for a different approach, considering poverty reduction directly, as poverty is a necessary component within all energy poverty definitions. This paper investigates how high the UK's top marginal tax rates would need to be, to provide funds to lift low-income UK households above the poverty threshold as defined by the low-income-high-cost (LIHC) and 10% energy poverty indicators. It finds that the increased top tax rates would still be in line with those of other European OECD countries. Using recent and new research on income elasticities of CO2 emissions, it then estimates the net direct effects on CO2 emissions of this redistribution. For both scenarios the most likely effect is a small reduction in net CO2 emissions. Further, indirect downward pressures on CO2 emissions due to reduced income among the highest earners are likely to lead to yet more favourable outcomes for net CO2 emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The saltmarsh carbon storage potential is a key topic in blue carbon research and climate policy. Ecosystem service valuations provide valuable information to policymakers for habitat management and climate change mitigation policies. Yet, only few saltmarsh valuation studies have included the carbon storage service in the UK context. This paper investigates how the public values saltmarsh ecosystem services, focussing on the carbon storage service. We used a choice experiment to elicit the willingness to pay (WTP) of a representative sample of the Scottish public to support interventions that would maintain or improve the provision of these services. Furthermore, we tested the effect of information on individuals' preferences and WTP with a split sample approach where one group received a treatment in the form of additional information. We found that (i) all attributes had a significant influence on individuals' choices; (ii) both groups had, on average, a positive marginal WTP for all presented ecosystem services; (iii) the treated sample had, on average, no significantly different marginal WTP for carbon storage than the control group. This paper adds to the limited literature on the saltmarsh carbon storage ecosystem service and demonstrates a developed nation's public's openness to nature-based climate change mitigation solutions. [Display omitted] • The Scottish public on average prefers saltmarsh management over the status quo. • Providing additional information reduced heterogeneity in WTP for carbon storage. • Most respondents preferred an improvement of all saltmarsh ecosystem services. • Therefore management should focus on both climate change mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Regenerative eco-innovation , demanding radical and architectural change to restore, renew and revitalise the natural system, is arguably the most important type of eco-innovation to address the pressing challenges of sustainable development. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of the regulatory framework and wider contextual conditions in facilitating or hindering regenerative eco-innovations. This is especially relevant for the built environment, a sector that is highly regulated and where rates of innovation are typically slow. We combined a review of relevant archival material with an interview programme involving key stakeholders from the UK's built environment sector. We contribute to the literature by extending and elaborating our understanding of regenerative eco-innovation in two ways. First, we extend the literature on regulation and eco-innovation by exploring what constitutes high quality regulation in the context of regenerative development. Second, we elaborate on how regenerative eco-innovations are facilitated or hindered by wider contextual conditions. Our paper also has practical utility. More understanding of how effective regulation can support regenerative eco-innovations, and of how the wider contextual conditions facilitate or hinder regenerative eco-innovations, allows industry and government to respond better to the urgent global challenge of closing material cycles. Highlights • Explores the influence of regulation and wider contextual conditions on regenerative eco-innovation • Focuses on a case study of extracted materials in the UK built environment sector • Extends and elaborates our understanding of regenerative eco-innovation in two ways: • what constitutes high quality regulation in the context of regenerative development • how the regulatory roots of regenerative eco-innovation are affected by wider contextual conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric nitrogen pollution has severe impacts on biodiversity, but approaches to value them are limited. This paper develops a spatially explicit methodology to value the benefits from improvements in biodiversity resulting from current policy initiatives to reduce nitrogen emissions. Using the UK as a case study, we quantify nitrogen impacts on plant diversity in four habitats: heathland, acid grassland, dunes and bogs, at fine spatial resolution. Focusing on non-use values for biodiversity we apply value-transfer based on household's willingness to pay to avoid changes in plant species richness, and calculate the benefit of projected emission declines of 37% for nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and 6% for ammonia (NH 3 ) over the scenario period 2007–2020. The annualised benefit resulting from these pollutant declines is £32.7 m (£4.4 m to £109.7 m, 95% Confidence Interval), with the greatest benefit accruing from heathland and acid grassland due to their large area. We also calculate damage costs per unit of NO 2 and NH 3 emitted, to quantify some of the environmental impacts of air pollution for use alongside damage costs for human health in policy appraisal. The benefit is £103 (£33 to £237) per tonne of NO 2 saved, and £414 (£139 to £1022) per tonne of NH 3 saved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pests and diseases are an existential threat to trees in forests and woodlands. There is, therefore, a pressing need to use ecological and bioeconomic models to inform forest managers on control and mitigation strategies. For example, the incidence of Dothistroma needle blight in the UK has increased rapidly since the 1990s, and it is a significant threat to the productivity of commercial forestry. Climatic changes are expected to exacerbate this problem further. Control of the disease in the UK primarily focuses on good stand management through pre-commercial thinning; similar practices are widely used in commercial forests worldwide. Forest managers would benefit from evidence on the effectiveness of this precautionary strategy (in comparison to its alternatives) to reduce disease impacts and increase the value extracted from timber. In this paper, we develop a bioeconomic model to determine the economically optimal harvesting regime – in terms of thinning and rotation – of an even-aged plantation under the risk of an invading pest. We extend a Schaefer–Faustmann model to include a compartmental epidemiological system that governs timber growth and disease spread. We analyse a set of management regimes, including the timing of the final clear-felling of the forest and the timing and level of earlier thinning. Thus, in our approach, forest managers decide whether and when to thin and must balance (i) harvesting before infection destroys the timber's value and (ii) exploiting the forest's density-dependent growth. We use a sensitivity analysis with respect to the disease spread and impact on the tree dynamics to demonstrate that, in the presence of disease, thinning can significantly improve the net present value of the plantation if applied correctly. Furthermore, if thinning reduces the transmission rate significantly, the priority is to protect the final harvest, and rotations extend while the thinning time shortens. Our study provides a framework to help design appropriate forest management strategies in the presence of disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ecosystem services concept has enjoyed widespread interest and recognition in recent years. In particular, the monetary valuation and commodification of ecosystem services in form of payments for ecosystem services schemes and the development of new markets for ecosystem services has appreciated large popularity. However, who is behind this strong momentum towards ecosystem services and especially why is less well known. In this paper I aim to shed light on this by looking specifically at advocates of the concept of ecosystem services, using forestry in the United Kingdom (UK) as an example. I explore the motivations for accommodating or actively pursuing ecosystem services thinking in this important sector through interviews with forestry and conservation experts. Four prominent groups with a specific interest in the ecosystem services concept in the context of UK forestry are governmental organisations, non-governmental conservation organisations, private forest owners, and the timber and forest industry. These stakeholder groups are interested in this new perspective, chiefly, but not exclusively, because (1) it is required under international obligations; (2) it is in line with dominant market political philosophy; (3) it holds the promise to include the environment more fully into prevailing economic decision-making processes; (4) it can help to draw more attention to biodiversity conservation; (5) it holds the promise of new sources of income from both public and private sources; and (6) it can be used as a convenient argument to promote further tree planting. However, these groups have different, but frequently overlapping reasons for pursuing this new perspective. The results provide a baseline and important insights into who was embracing ecosystem services thinking and why during the early years of the adoption of this approach in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of new domestic properties contributes 2% of UK territorial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The UK government aims to increase construction of new homes in England by almost a third, to 300,000 per year by the mid-2020s, whilst simultaneously reducing emissions in line with its net zero 2050 commitment. In this paper, for the first time, the upfront embodied carbon cost of constructing domestic properties in the UK by 2050 is quantified. A bottom-up analysis modelling seven domestic building typologies was used, with the material use for each based on current UK practice. Possible interventions to reduce the embodied carbon cost are then analysed. The results show that maintaining today's levels of construction will use the remaining 2050 carbon budget apportioned to house building (160 MtCO 2 e) by 2036, and cause a substantial increase in domestic floor area per capita. However, construction could reduce and cease entirely by 2035 without reducing today's living floor area per capita (37.5 m 2), resulting in a substantially reduced cumulative embodied carbon of 88 MtCO 2 e by 2050. Increasing living floor area per capita to the EU average of 40.5 m2, can be achieved within the carbon budget and with zero emissions by 2050. In contrast, increasing house building to government targets will result in double the cumulative emissions than the budget allows. A number of carbon reduction interventions were then investigated. It was found that of to 75% embodied carbon savings can be achieved by simultaneously changing the typology share, increasing material efficiency, increasing conversion from non-residential buildings and increasing the use of timber for structural purposes. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a detailed review of the basis and prospects for United Kingdom (UK) proposals for the most ambitious mainstream social, economic, and environmental policy program of the 21st century: the Green New Deal (GND), providing critical reflection for its implementation at a local or regional level. Through a review of academic, policy and book publications we examine the key proposed features of a UK GND, identifying five core elements: financial reforms; green infrastructure investment; financing the GND; ownership structures; and economic, social and climate justice. We subsequently review these policy areas through the lens of multi-level governance (MLG) to understand what scales of policy action are required for these aims to be achieved. We find that, whilst core elements of a UK GND, such as reforms to the financial system, and expansionary fiscal and monetary policy require policy change at national and supra-national level, the majority of GND investments require implementation at the local level. We suggest that, in the context of contemporary UK MLG, there are challenges for fully funding and delivering a GND without a national programme, while highlighting emerging options for coordinating and implementing a GND by local government actors, in the absence of national support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable consumption is a growing niche with an increasing number of initiatives aimed at lowering domestic environmental consumption footprints. Third-party assured product eco-labelling has emerged as a key governance mechanism to promote sustainable consumption. However, does the purchasing of eco-labelled products really support a transition towards more sustainable consumption? In this paper, we explore eco-labelling through the lens of the rebound literature. While theorizing of the rebound effect originated in energy economics and has long been centred on eco-efficiency, we extend its rationale to products that are associated with a price premium in return for added environmental quality attributes. Reporting on two inter-related studies into the link between purchasing of environmentally friendly products and different types of environmental resource consumption, we find that eco-labelled products flourish in more affluent economies that are characterized by higher levels of overall resource consumption; and that willingness to consume environmentally friendly products is positively related to higher individual carbon, water and material footprints. Hence, we argue that eco-labelling in its current form is inextricably linked to higher – rather than lower – levels of resource consumption. Consequently, the governance mechanism that underpins eco-labelling is associated with an indirect behavioural consumer rebound effect. • We report on two studies into environmentally friendly product purchasing • Eco-labels thrive in more affluent EU-27 markets • In the UK, willingness to pay for eco-labels is linked to higher resource use • This pattern is particularly pronounced for carbon footprints • Eco-labelling reflects an indirect behavioural rebound effect [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research into the determinants of household energy consumption has aimed to incorporate findings from economics, sociology and psychology in order to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the factors determining energy demand. The current paper contributes to this nascent stream of literature by studying the relationship between risk attitudes, trust propensity and energy consumption at the household level. Drawing on the British Household Panel Survey, a well-known data set in the context of energy studies, I show that trust is negatively correlated with household energy demand, while higher risk tolerance leads to increases in residential energy use. Potential explanations for these findings are investigated, suggesting that risk preferences may be related with overall appliance stock and the size of the rebound effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents findings from a nationally representative household survey on the tendency to regret purchases across 20 product groups. The survey reveals that the vast majority of adults in Great Britain (82%) have regretted a purchase in the past. Post-purchase regret is shown to be particularly prevalent for clothing & footwear and takeaway food. The tendency to regret purchases appears to reduce with age and to be more common amongst white collar rather than blue collar workers. Combining survey results with average price estimates gives an estimated, aggregate, annual expenditure on regretted purchases of £5–25bn, equivalent to 2–10% of annual consumer spending on goods in Great Britain. These findings are interesting because they suggest that there is a degree of self-assessed over-consumption that, if reduced, could help to reduce pressures on the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Equity, efficiency and effectiveness are three key criteria use to assess environmental policy instruments. Part 1 of this survey shows that, in terms of equity, Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs) – a widely discussed personal carbon trading (PCT) scheme - cannot be differentiated from Cap and Dividend (C&D) or Cap and Share (C&S). Hence, Part 2 explores whether they can be differentiated in terms of efficiency and/or effectiveness. The paper reviews two studies that compare the efficiency of TEQs and C&D. Whilst their estimates of the costs and abatement potential of TEQs differ, neither study considers that there is a case, on efficiency grounds, for its implementation. The paper goes on to sketch two arguments for the implementation of PCT that might, nevertheless, be made on efficiency grounds and one – relating to public acceptability – that might be made on effectiveness grounds. Exploring the various public surveys conducted on the acceptability of PCT, the paper concludes that support for PCT is not obviously greater than for alternative instruments and notes a methodological limitation in the work reviewed. The paper concludes that, to date, the case against implementation of PCT is stronger than the case for. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In recent years, there has been considerable discussion within UK climate policy circles regarding the appropriateness of personal carbon trading as an instrument for greenhouse gas emission reduction. This paper is the first in a two-part survey of personal carbon trading (PCT), the term used here to describe proposed (sub-)national greenhouse gas emission trading schemes under which at least some emissions rights are allocated to and surrendered by individuals. After introducing the various proposed PCT schemes, the paper compares, in terms of equity, the two most-discussed PCT schemes with two alternative emission trading schemes and a carbon tax. The papers' two key findings are as follows. First, there are strong arguments that the equal per capita allocation proposed under some instruments is not completely fair. Second, the five instruments compared can be equivalent in terms of their equity. Along with equity, efficiency and effectiveness make up three key criteria for comparing environmental policy instruments. As PCT has no advantage in terms of equity, the paper concludes that any case for PCT will depend on it having advantages in terms of efficiency and/or effectiveness. Whether PCT has such advantages is explored in Part 2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents the results of a stated preference choice experiment designed to estimate the non-market benefits derived by UK residents from the conservation of ecosystem goods and services resulting from implementation of proposed Marine Conservation Zones under the UK Marine and Coastal Access Bill (2008). The results inform an impact assessment that compares benefits to projected policy costs. As demonstrated in a paper by Hussain et al (2010) ex ante benefit estimation is complicated by the scientific uncertainty and data gaps that hinder the development of a bottom–up valuation of the ecosystem goods and services provisioned by the policy. A choice experiment approach provides an alternative top–down valuation by approximating policy outcomes, which are spatially remote from beneficiaries and therefore arguably only appreciated passively or in terms of non-use or existence value for broadly defined attributes of the policy. The choice experiment shows preferences for both halting the loss of or increasing marine biodiversity, and the provision of other environmental services relative to current trajectories of decline. Survey respondents were indifferent to the levels of restrictions on activities needed to achieve these outcomes. As a top–down estimate of policy benefits, the study suggests that welfare improvements from the Marine Bill significantly outweigh projected regulatory costs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The consumption patterns of Western nations are generally deemed to be unsustainable. Yet there is little attempt to restrain either material throughput or income growth. Nonetheless, in the face of the need to make ‘deep’ cuts in carbon emissions (for instance), consumption restraint may be a perfectly legitimate response. This paper explores the potential for a Reduced Consumption Scenario in the UK constructed by assuming that households achieve a specific ‘minimum income standard’ which is deemed to provide a decent life for each household type. The minimum income standards are taken from a recent study for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and include not only subsistence commodities such as food, warmth and shelter but also the means to participate effectively in society. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation study produced detailed household expenditure budgets for these income standards. The paper uses an environmentally extended Quasi-Multi-Regional Input–Output model to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions required in the production and distribution of all goods and services purchased according to these budgets. Our results show that average household GHG emissions in the UK would be around 37% lower in the Reduced Consumption Scenario than they are currently. We explore several implications of these findings including: the need to change social norms around consumption, the need for investment to improve the thermal performance of homes and the need to develop new transport infrastructures. We also address the potential to reduce emissions below the level achieved in this Scenario and discuss the implications for policy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Environmental tax reform (ETR) is a process of shifting the weight of taxation from socially desirable activities, such as labour and profit-generation, to the use of natural resources and the generation of pollution. The paper calculates the revenues from the UK fuel duty escalator (FDE) (an above-inflation increase in fuel duty implemented from 1993 to 1999), and compares these with the revenues lost from the cuts in income tax in 1995 and 1996, and again in 2001. The paper finds that the lost revenue was roughly the same as the revenue from the FDE. In effect the governments concerned had implemented an ETR without in any way drawing attention to the fact. The FDE was discontinued in 1999 when the oil price rose and, in the face of protests at the level of fuel duty the following year, real revenues from fuel duty subsequently declined. It is at least arguable that, had the fact that FDE had facilitated income tax cuts been established by the government at the time, the FDE and fuel duty generally would have been less unpopular. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents an estimate of the benefits of the proposed designation of a network of marine conservation zones (MCZs) in English territorial and UK offshore waters. This ex ante analysis was undertaken as part of a cost–benefit evidence base to inform implementation of the proposed UK Marine and Coastal Access Bill. This Bill is part of an ambitious plan to designate and manage UK marine areas using an Ecosystems Approach. Benefits are measured in terms of anticipated increases in the value of ecosystem goods and services provisioned by MCZs relative to the counterfactual, i.e. no designation. The principal valuation and thus policy challenge is presented by the need to use benefits transfer in a context where biophysical provisioning functions are not well-developed, where there are gaps in the valuation literature related to temperate marine ecosystem goods and services, and where values (where available) are presented in aggregate terms. This paper develops and applies a methodology that first apportions these aggregate benefits across the diverse range of marine landscapes and habitats and then estimates the marginal benefit of protection. The value of benefits was calculated for three different configurations of MCZs under two different management regimes. We estimate a benefit range from designation of between £10.2billion and £23.5billion in present value terms, applying a 3.5% discount rate. The study questions the extent to which a defensible policy evidence base can be developed in the absence of primary valuation data and where benefit estimates are reported in aggregate terms. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Sustainable consumption demands the ability to understand the patterns of resource consumption associated with changing lifestyles. This paper explores changes in resource consumption patterns in the UK between 1968 and 2000. Using an environmental input–output model, the paper tracks the fossil resource requirements attributable to 8 high-level functional purposes and finds that overall fossil resource consumption increased 35% over the 32 year period. The four functional purposes most closely related to the provision of basic material needs showed little change over the period. The bulk of the increase in fossil resource requirements was attributable to two specific functional purposes: 1) recreation and entertainment; 2) commuting and business travel. The authors discuss the relevance of these findings for the continuing debate over the question whether rising consumption is being driven by expanding social aspirations (luxury) or whether it is the result of structural lock-in. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents the methodology of value chain analysis developed for a study which combined a material flow analysis of the UK iron and steel sector with a consideration of the economic dimension of those material flows, in order to shed light on concepts such as resource productivity and dematerialisation of the economy. The methodology is used in this paper to map the current value chain of iron and steel flows through the UK, noting the high value of scrap arisings at different stages of the production and use chain, and the substantial cost of disposing of iron and steel as waste; to examine the residual outputs generated by this industry and the value of applying industrial ecology principles; to contrast the environmental impacts of different categories of materials with their values; and to discuss the findings in terms of the global environmental burden of this sector of the economy, with particular attention paid to international trade aspects. It was found that while imports are substantial, net imports are, in terms of both weight and value, a rather small part—just under 20%—of total UK iron and steel production and use (defined as domestic production plus net imports). The findings show that value chain analysis is a robust methodology for exploring various aspects of the economy–environment interface, and a useful complement to material flow or life cycle analyses with a potentially very widespread applicability. The value chain analysis also provides a framework for coherent and integrated responses by industry as well as policy-makers, through its focus on linkages within different stages and actors in a chain and on the potential for systemic efficiencies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The circular flow diagram, whether in its limited form in macroeconomics, or broader form in ecological economics, depicts a duality of flows – physical resources in one direction with financial transactions in the opposite. Biophysical models of the economy can be constructed based on the physical flows and their associated stocks. In previous work, I demonstrated how the accumulation of wealth – measured by the capital stock – can be established using a biophysical model. With capital, energy use, and the distribution of labour determined by biophysical economics, here I investigate the range of potential distributions of wealth – profits versus wages – that follow in the political economy. The analysis is conducted using a four-sector model of Great Britain's economy from 1760 to 1913, including agriculture, coal mining, construction & materials, and production of goods and services. Energy price is a key variable in the model, influencing the distribution of income between different sectors. Taking the price of coal at historically observed values, the distribution of total factor income per worker is plotted as a trade-off between annual wages and profits per worker for example years of 1761, 1817, and 1871. The plots reveal how possible alternative distributions of income might be achieved under different political-economic regimes, subject to the same biophysical constraints. Conclusions are framed in the context of the grand challenges faced by ecological economists of developing environmentally sustainable economies with a just and equitable sharing of resources. [Display omitted] • The paper frames the challenge of wealth distribution subject to biophysical constraints. • Prices, wages, and profits are added to a biophysical model of the Industrial Revolution. • The distribution of total factor income per worker is posed as a trade-off between wages and profits per worker. • Changes in energy price are shown to impact the distribution of income between and within sectors. • The influence of the political economy on the biophysical economy is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper investigates the economic impact of a 5% improvement in the UK household energy efficiency, focussing specifically on total energy rebound effects. The impact is measured through simulations using models that have increasing degrees of endogeneity but are calibrated on a common data set, moving from a basic partial equilibrium approach to a fully specified general equilibrium treatment. The size of the rebound effect is shown to depend on changes in household income, aggregate economic activity and relative prices that can only be captured through a general equilibrium model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Does the association between household characteristics and household CO2 emissions differ for areas such as home energy, transport and indirect emissions? This question is policy relevant because distributional implications of mitigation policies may vary depending on the area of emissions that is targeted if specific types of households are likely to have higher emissions in some areas than in others. So far, this issue has not been examined in depth in the literature on household CO2 emissions. Using a representative UK expenditure survey, this paper compares how household characteristics like income, household size, education, gender, worklessness and rural or urban location differ in their association with all three areas as well as total emissions. We find that these associations vary considerably across emission domains. In particular, whilst all types of emissions rise with income, low income, workless and elderly households are more likely to have high emissions from home energy than from other domains, suggesting that they may be less affected by carbon taxes on transport or total emissions. This demonstrates that fairness implications related to mitigation policies need to be examined for separate emission domains. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper evaluates if the proposed divestment of the English Forestry Commission Estate in 2010 was economically rational. The analysis is composed of two parts. First, an amenity value threshold for continued public access to the Estate was estimated. Based on a stated value of the Estate (i.e. £700million) and assuming a discount rate of 3.5% the Estate should never have been considered for sale. However, assuming a discount rate of 5% then the associated critical amenity value was estimated to be approximately £5million. Second, travel cost methods were employed to value public access to the Forest of Dean as a proxy for the Estate. An on-site survey was conducted that yielded estimates of consumer surplus that exceed the critical amenity value of the Estate by two orders of magnitude even when we employ a discount rate above that typically used in public policy decision making. Therefore, we conclude that the policy to divest the Estate for £700million was not ‘a good deal’ and as such the resulting policy reversal was an economically sensible decision. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Using the modelling tool ELESA (Econometric Lifestyle Environment Scenario Analysis), this paper describes forecast scenarios to 2030 for UK household expenditure and associated (direct and indirect) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 16 expenditure categories. Using assumptions for real household disposable income, real prices, ‘exogenous non-economic factors’ (ExNEF), average UK temperatures and GHG intensities, three future scenarios are constructed. In each scenario, real expenditure for almost all categories of UK expenditure continues to grow up to 2030; the exceptions being ‘alcoholic beverages and tobacco’ and ‘other fuels’ (and ‘gas’ and ‘electricity’ in the ‘low’ scenario) leading to an increase in associated GHG emissions for most of the categories in the ‘reference’ and ‘high’ scenarios other than ‘food and non-alcoholic beverages’, ‘alcoholic beverages and tobacco’, ‘electricity’, ‘other fuels’ and ‘recreation and culture’. Of the future GHG emissions, about 30% is attributed to ‘direct energy’ use by households and nearly 70% attributable to ‘indirect energy’. UK policy makers therefore need to consider a range of policies if they wish to curtail emissions associated with household expenditure, including, for example, economic measures such as taxes alongside measures that reflect the important contribution of ExNEF to changes in expenditure for most categories of consumption. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper analyzes wood consumption in Britain over the period 1850–1938. We calculate the apparent consumption of wood, taking into account both net imports of wood and the home harvest. We then develop some quantitative exercises that correlate wood consumption with GDP, with prices of wood and iron (as an alternative material to wood) and with other measures. The main conclusion is that, although wood had lost its economic centrality after the energy transition, wood consumption continued to grow in Britain both in absolute and relative terms, showing a positive elasticity to GDP superior to the unit. This result allows us to reach a more complete understanding of the socio-metabolic transition associated with the Industrial Revolution. Britain faced the increase in wood demand by relying almost entirely on imported wood, reinforcing the idea that the decoupling of economic growth from land use must to be handled with care, and should be observed not at the national level but on a global scale. Although British economic development was to a great extent focussed on what has been called the “subterranean forests” of coal, it simultaneously supported large tracts of surface foreign forest. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper considers how energy-related external costs change through time. It focuses on one of the key periods in the history of energy. After a period of declining coal prices and soaring consumption which fuelled the Second Industrial Revolution, the nineteenth century British economy was externalising the social costs of energy production and consumption on a massive scale. Rising from 25% in the 1820s, an estimated 60%–70% of the average social costs of coal were externalised in the 1880s, imposing damages close to 20% of GDP. The eventual decline in air pollution concentration (around 1900) occurred fifty years later than was broadly socially optimal. This experience highlights the evolution of the demand for and supply of environmental quality in the context of economic growth, and the nature of related market and government failures, implying the necessity for adaptation rather than encouraging mitigation. This experience may offer lessons for climate analysis and policy-making. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Household waste recycling rates vary significantly both across and within regions of the UK. This paper attempts to explain the variation by using a new data set of waste recycling rates and policy determinants for all of the UK's 434 local authorities over the period 2006Q2 to 2008Q4. Our results suggest that the method of recycling collection chosen by policy makers is an important factor influencing the recycling rate. We also find an inverse relationship between the frequency of the residual waste collection and the recycling rate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, we adopt a recent OECD framework and examine the role of external policy tools and internal firm specific factors for stimulating three different types of eco-innovations that range on a spectrum of lower to higher technological and environmental impacts: End-of-Pipeline Pollution Control Technologies, Integrated Cleaner Production Technologies and Environmental R&D. Using a novel firm-level dataset from a DEFRA survey, we estimate a Tobit model, which provides empirical evidence showing that these eco-innovations are motivated by different external policy tools and internal firm specific factors. Our findings indicate that End of Pipeline Technologies and Integrated Cleaner Production Technologies are mainly driven by equipment upgrade motives with a view of improving efficiency while environmental regulations are effective in stimulating the End-of-Pipeline technologies and Environmental R&D. Interestingly, alongside government induced regulations, we find that market factors, mainly motivated by cost savings, are effective in driving Environmental R&D. Finally, ISO14001 certification is effective in strengthening the positive impact of environmental management systems on both End-of-Pipeline technologies and Environmental R&D while CSR policies have no significant impact on motivating any of the eco-innovations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper analyses the different activities within the value chain of organic cotton production in India to understand where, and how, value is added at each stage. Transforming a cotton crop into a textile and then into a final item of clothing involves many stages of processing, using many skills and technologies. We examine the activities and the prices achieved at each stage of this chain, from the farming of the cotton crop to its eventual sale in clothes'' retailers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents a societal level exergy analysis approach developed to analyse transitions in the way that energy is supplied and contributes to economic growth in the UK, the US, Austria and Japan, throughout the last century. We assess changes in exergy and useful work consumption, energy efficiency and related GDP intensity measures of each economy. The novel data provided elucidate certain characteristics of divergence and commonality in the energy transitions studied. The results indicate that in each country the processes of industrialization, urbanisation and electrification are characterised by a marked increase in exergy and useful work supplies and per capita intensities. There is a common and continuous decrease in the exergy intensity of GDP. Moreover for each country studied the trend of increasing useful work intensity of GDP reversed in the early 1970s coincident with the first oil crisis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Rural areas are subject to changing and often competing demands. Where agricultural production was once paramount, it now competes with other ecosystem services such as carbon storage, rural amenity, and wildlife habitat. If rural areas are to be managed to produce this broad range of goods and services, then more diverse and complex management regimes are needed. This paper explores the literature on property rights before using a ‘property rights bundle’ approach in the UK uplands to (1) examine the distribution of property rights between stakeholders in a multi-resource system and (2) evaluate the effect of state intervention on the redistribution of property rights and the resulting management regimes. Private land owners were found to be the dominant type of property rights holder and private property the dominant management regime in the uplands of the UK. Government intervention has also created private-state regimes for some public goods such as biodiversity but common property management is still in its infancy with regards to ecosystem services and few stakeholders have claimant rights over resources. As a result, many stakeholders are unable to influence management to produce the goods that they want. A property rights perspective highlights that single management regimes alone are unlikely to manage land sustainably for both private and public goods. Instead, a complex mix of private, private-state and common property regimes are found to be emerging in this multi-resource system. These mixed management regimes have the potential to produce sustainable outcomes but only if the appropriate management regime is matched to each resource, if links are developed between each regime to deal with conflict and if mixed management is adaptable enough to cope with new and changing demands. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The concept of the water footprint has been recently introduced as an important indicator for human-induced water consumption. The water footprint is defined as the total volume of water used during production and consumption of goods and services as well as direct water consumption by humans. Water is not only consumed directly but also indirectly in production processes. Therefore, calculating the water footprint enables us to quantify total water consumed along the whole global supply chain. In this paper, we develop a regional input–output (IO) model extended by water consumption coefficients to quantify the respective domestic water footprint for different consumption categories for the South-East and North-East of England and the UK, i.e. the water consumed directly and indirectly along the regional supply chain. In addition, we calculate the total water footprints which include both domestic water consumption and the water required in other countries to produce goods and services imported and consumed in the region under investigation through applying a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model. Both footprints also include households'' direct consumption of water. With regards to the two regions, we can observe a very pronounced regional disparity of regional (domestic and total) water footprints between the relatively water-scarce South-East and the water-rich North-East of England. We find that the domestic water footprint per capita in the South-East is 22% higher than the domestic water footprint per capita in the North-East. The key water consumers include Agriculture, Food Products, Electricity and Gas Production, and Hotel and Catering. The total water footprints per capita in the South-East (1257m3/year) are more than twice the ones in the North-East (597m3/year). The domestic water footprint focuses only on the supply chain effects and associated water consumption within the regional boundaries, which are usually of higher interest to policy makers and water companies concerned with the balance of supply and demand of water resources within their respective administrative boundaries or watersheds. The total water footprint allows assessing global effects and supports global supply chain management and is also introducing notions of fairness and equity in terms of resource consumption. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the United Kingdom's society's long-term intervention into the energy flows of domestic terrestrial ecosystems through the human appropriation of aboveground net primary production (aHANPP) covering the period 1800–2000. The depicted aHANPP trajectory and the historical development of its components are discussed in view of a continuously increasing population and the transition process from an agrarian to an industrial socioecological regime. During the 19th century, aHANPP shows a steady decline from its level of 71% in 1800. While even higher levels were reached during the mid 20th century, the trend during the last forty years of the period under investigation again shows a reduction of aHANPP, which lies at 68% in the year 2000. The high values of aHANPP in the United Kingdom are primarily attributable to the limited amount of forest in comparison to large agricultural areas. At the beginning of the studied period, the relative stabilisation or even decrease in aHANPP in comparison to population development was made possible through the area expansion of and productivity increases on cropland and permanent pastures. Later this was made possible through the outsourcing of biomass harvest, by satisfying local nutritional demands by means of overseas imports, and as from the mid 20th century through huge amounts of fossil fuel based inputs into agriculture (e.g. increased amounts of fertilizers and motorized traction) which allowed increases in biomass harvest to be decoupled from HANPP. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper reports on the development of a model for assessing transitions to sustainable mobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which a transition to a sustainable mobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent. There are a small number of complex agents, which have an internal structure and are therefore subsystems within society, and a larger number of simple agents. Based on the UK data, the results show that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) come to dominate, but only in the very long run (after 2030), while biofuels and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)-electric hybrids are the main alternatives to the regime in the next 10–30 years, because a) they are already developed and b) they fit better into current infrastructures. The model shows that technological transitions are most likely. Lifestyle change transitions require sustained pressure from the environment on society and behavioural change from consumers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents a socio-economically disaggregated framework for attributing CO2 emissions to people's high level functional needs. Based around a quasi-multi-regional input–output (QMRIO) model, the study, in theory, takes into account all CO2 emissions that arise from energy used in production of goods and services to satisfy UK household demand, whether the emissions occur in the UK or abroad. Results show that CO2 emissions attributable to households were 15% above 1990 levels in 2004, and that although absolute decoupling occurred between household expenditure and CO2 during the UK's switch from coal to gas in the early 1990s, since then only slight relative decoupling is evident. The proportion of CO2 that arises outside UK borders in support of UK consumption is rising, and reducing these emissions is particularly problematic in a global trading system. Investigation into the carbon footprint of different segments of the UK population shows wide variation: the segment with the highest carbon footprint emits 64% more CO2 than the segment with the lowest. Results show that recreation and leisure are responsible for over one quarter of CO2 emissions in a typical UK household in 2004. We conclude that expanding lifestyle aspirations are significant factors in driving household CO2 emissions, but the study also emphasizes that attention must be paid to the infrastructures and institutions that result in considerable amounts of CO2 being locked up in basic household activities through which people meet their everyday needs for subsistence, protection, and communication with family and friends. The findings highlight the sheer scale of the challenge facing UK policy-makers, and suggest that policies should be targeted towards segments of society responsible for the highest carbon footprints. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper introduces the method of decomposition analysis, and briefly discusses how it has been used in relation to patterns of energy consumption. It then uses decomposition analysis to discuss two radically different scenarios of UK energy use through to 2050, both of which result in a 60% reduction in emissions of carbon dioxide. The ratios of the decomposition analysis are discussed in relation to the social and economic drivers of energy use, and the kinds of changes in these drivers which would be necessary to bring the ratios about. In this way decomposition analysis is shown to be a useful technique both to generate quantitative scenarios of this kind, and to cast light on the socio-economic conditions which they imply. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper quantifies fossil resource inequalities amongst income quintiles in the UK between 1968 and 2000. It calculates a resource-based Gini coefficient using an input–output based resource allocation model. The results show that the Gini coefficient for total fossil resource consumption grew by 24% over the time period. By comparison the Gini coefficient for overall household expenditure rose by only 13%. The increase in resource inequality was prompted by the rising demand by high income quintiles for goods and services such as: “fuel and light” (heating and lighting the home), “car use” (private transportation), “recreation”, “travel” and “other services”. The analysis shows further that the Gini coefficient for “direct” fossil resources (“fuel and light” and “car use”) was lower and rose less steeply than the Gini coefficient for fossil resources embodied in other goods and services (indirect fossil resource requirements). Investigation into the drivers behind direct and indirect resource inequalities suggests a number of policy conclusions. Firstly, it is clear that policy initiatives to reduce fossil resource requirements (and the associated climate change impacts) must pay careful attention to distributional differences. Additionally, increased attention needs to be paid to the inequalities associated with indirect fossil resources consumption as well as the more visible direct resource inequalities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input–output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner, Lenzen, Wiedmann and Barrett [Turner, K., Lenzen, M., Wiedmann, T., Barrett, J., 2007. Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — part 1: a technical note on combining input–output and ecological footprint analysis. Ecological Economics 62 (1), 37–44] in a recent issue of this journal in order to enumerate the CO2 pollution content of interregional trade flows between Scotland and the rest of the UK (RUK). We extend the analysis to account for direct emissions generation by households, as final consumers, and to a social accounting matrix (SAM), where a more comprehensive account of incomes and expenditures is possible. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, the interregional economy-environment IO and SAM framework for Scotland and RUK allows an illustrative analysis of some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the UK and the existence of a CO2 ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and RUK. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The UK Climate Change Bill proposes to establish legally binding targets for a 60% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. This paper discusses the challenges posed by measuring progress towards this target. It takes as a premise that the conventional production-based accounting framework, enshrined in the UNFCCC emissions accounting guidelines, is inappropriate for this task because it fails to account for the carbon ‘traded’ across the UK national boundary. Accordingly, it sets out a consumption-based accounting framework – using a two-region Environmental Input–Output (EIO) model – which could in principle measure progress in reducing the emissions attributable to final consumers in the UK. It illustrates the use of this framework to measure the reduction in carbon dioxide achieved by the UK between 1990 (the Kyoto base year) and the year 2004 and compares this against the production perspective. The results indicate that any progress towards the UK''s carbon reduction targets (visible under a production perspective) disappears completely when viewed from a consumption perspective. But the robustness of this conclusion depends critically on the accuracy of underlying economic and environmental datasets as well as specific assumptions concerning imports. By analysing the consistency of UK Input–Output data, we conclude that EIO is still some way from being able to answer the critical question of the carbon trade balance for the UK. In these circumstances, measuring real progress towards carbon reduction in the UK remains elusive. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to examine the extent to which the UK can be classified as a net importer of fossil resources and a creator of pollution havens abroad between 1968 and 2000. Using input–output techniques and a derived Resource Flow Classification System, both the physical trade balance (PTB) and pollution trade balance (UTB) associated with fossil resource use are computed. The PTB shows that between 1968 and the early 1980''s the UK is presented as a net importer of direct fossil resource flows. Between 1984 and 2000, the UK is identified as a net exporter of direct fossil resources. These trends are primarily explained by the UK''s discovery and commercial production of North Sea oil and gas fields in the late 1970s. On the other hand, the UTB shows that over the whole period the indirect used flows attributable to the UK''s exports are higher than those attributable to its imports. These findings suggest that the UK did not create pollution havens abroad from the use of fossil resources between 1968 and 2000. However, it is noticeable in both cases that from 1995 the UK''s position as a net exporter has been decreasing considerably. Maturing North Sea oil and gas fields set against increasing demands for fossil fuels and imported goods is signalling a return to the UK''s pre-1984 dependence on direct imported fossil resources and the possible creation of pollution havens abroad. Knowledge of these trends contributes to the evidence base for the UK''s changing import and export structure and the potential environmental repercussions at home and abroad. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]