Search

Abstract There is no shortage of concepts that aim to show how our economy can become more resource- efficient such as eco-innovation, cradle to cradle. We analysed a long list of concepts using three dimensions: scope of change, ambition with regard to the (paradigmatic) degree of change, and the existence of plausible drivers and pathways of change. Reviewed literature on governance and transitions suggests that the more extensive and radical the scope and ambition of change are, the higher systemic and institutional resistance to change will be. From roughly 30 concepts reviewed, none gave a credible answer on how to overcome this dilemma. Resource scarcity is not (yet) a clear driver for change. Where in the field of climate change policy starts to respond to compelling scientific evidence of danger, in the field of resources only win-win policies are seriously considered. Advocates of radical resource efficiency must find credible pathways that allow it to be pursued at scale in practice or hope that incremental change will open up space for more radical options, in order to avoid the significant economic and social disruption from supply-demand imbalances that some now fear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Various environmental footprint concepts have already been developed and applied in sustainability research. However, these analyses tend to remain restricted to historical observation samples. At least in comparison with related research activities in other environmental policy domains (like, e.g., climate policy), it seems that applications of integrated assessment tools represent rather seldom exceptions within the resource policy domain. Our paper is, therefore, intended to strengthen the related evidence base. We present recent projections from the dynamic Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) simulation model GINFORS (Global Inter-Industry Forecasting System), which provide an outlook on global development trends until the year 2050. Our detailed material footprint and climate policy assessment indicates that a global agreement on a policy mix will allow a clear turnaround towards climate protection and a sustainable use of natural resources without deteriorating economic performance. If the EU decides unilaterally to lead the way, then this turnaround could also be achieved for the EU while the EU would also benefit economically from this pioneering role. A third pathway towards a resource efficient and low-carbon Europe quantifies the environmental and economic impacts of a strong transitional change induced by European citizens' commitments to far-reaching sufficiency objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a methodology to estimate the determinants of the formation of technology diffusion networks from the patterns of technology adoption. We apply this methodology to wind energy, which is one of the key technologies in climate change mitigation. Our results emphasize that, in particular, long-term relationships as measured by economic integration are key determinants of technological diffusion. Specific support measures are less relevant, at least to explain the extensive margin of diffusion. Our results also highlight that the scope of technological diffusion is much broader than what is suggested by the consideration of CDM projects alone, which are particularly focused on China and India. Finally, the network of technological diffusion inferred from our approach highlights the central role of European countries in the diffusion process and the absence of large hubs among developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the effects of public policies on the occurrence of natural disasters related to extreme rainfall. By using a unique and geolocated database on natural disasters in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, I test whether variables related to public policies - e.g. forest cover and urban infrastructure - affect the occurrence of natural disasters, conditional on the existence of extreme rainfall. Results point to a significant role for public policies in order to mitigate effects of extreme weather events. More specifically, results point to an important role for urban infrastructure, as proper sewage and waste collection, and forest cover in reducing the impacts of extreme rainfall. Moreover, I discuss how these heterogeneous effects have distributional consequences and can be linked to the Environmental Justice literature. Finally, this paper reinforces the idea that adaptation policies to disasters are essential in reducing local vulnerabilities and can yield distributional and fiscal benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic theory as well as empirical research suggest that elderly people prefer public spending on policies yielding short-term benefits. This might be bad news for policies aimed at combating climate change: while the unavoidable costs of these policies arise today, the expected benefits occur in the distant future. Drawing on data from over 12,000 households and using the ordered logit and the generalized ordered logit model, we analyze whether attitudes towards climate change and climate policies as well as public spending preferences differ with respect to age. Our estimates show that elderly people are less concerned about climate change, but more concerned about other global challenges. Furthermore, they are less likely to support climate-friendly policies, such as the subsidization of renewables, allocate less public resources to and have lower willingness-to-pay for environmental policies. Thus, our results suggest that the ongoing demographic change in industrialized countries may undermine climate policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interaction between mitigation and adaptation is a key question for the design of climate policies. In this paper, we study how land use adaptation to climate change impacts land use competition in the agriculture, forest and other land use (AFOLU) sector and how a mitigation policy in agriculture might affect this competition. We use for this purpose two sector-specific bio-economic models of agriculture and forest combined with an econometric land use shares model to simulate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (A2 and B1, 2100 horizon), and a greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture policy consisting of a tax of between 0 and 200 €/tCO 2 equivalent. Our results show that both climate change scenarios lead to an increase in the area devoted to agriculture at the expense of forest which could have a negative impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change. The mitigation policy would curtail agricultural expansion, and thus could counteract the effects of land use adaptation to climate change. In other words, accounting for land use competition results in a reduction of the abatement costs of the mitigation policy in the agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study contributes to the literature on public responses to climate policies in two ways. We investigate the effect of institutional contexts on attitudes toward policies, and we examine the relevance of political values for these effects. Institutional theory suggests that the institutional context influences whether “individual rationality” (IR) or “social rationality” (SR) frames choices. To investigate the effects of such contexts and political values on attitudes toward policies aimed at reducing private car use, we conducted a survey experiment involving 1500 car owners in Oslo, Norway. One group of respondents received a text emphasizing the individual health gains from reducing local air pollution (IR context), a second group received a text emphasizing the social responsibility for avoiding climate change (SR context), and a control group received no such text. We found effects of the contexts on attitudes toward emission-reducing policies, and found that the effects vary across individuals with different political values. The SR context yielded higher support for an increase in petrol prices among non-individualists only. The IR context yielded higher support for a decrease in space for cars among both non-individualists and individualists. Ways forward regarding expanding this field of research are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature dedicated to the analysis of the different climate agreements has usually focused on the effectiveness of the aims for emissions in the light of the advance in climate change. This article quantifies the variation in emissions that the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) will entail and their financial allocation and policies country-by-country and regionally. The objective is evaluating the Paris Agreement feasibility regarding the INDCs and its economic and environmental constraints. The criteria through which the 161 INDCs are analysed are as follows: i/ socio-economic impact of the transition; ii/ focus on energy management; iii/ substitution of non-renewable sources; iv/ the role of technology; v/ equality of the transition; vi/ compliance with emission reductions. The results obtained show that the Paris Agreement excessively relies on external financial support (41.4%). Moreover, its unilateralist approach, the socio-economic and biophysical constraints could be the underlying cause of the ineffectiveness of the 2 °C objective. This way, each country would emit an average of 37.8% more than in the years 2005–2015. When this is weighted, the figure would be a 19.3% increase, due mainly to the increases in China and India. These figures would lead the temperatures up to 3°–4 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops an Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare for Spain from 1970 to 2012 and seeks to update valuation approaches to a number of items. Two approaches have proven particularly controversial over recent decades; the costs of energy depletion and of climate change. The valuation implications in measuring present welfare have proven problematic, as both include future sustainability consequences arising from resource depletion and environmental impacts. This study includes a ‘ transition cost ’ approach to energy depletion, a modified approach to costs of climate change and water pollution, and removes the cost of ozone depletion. The results illustrate that while GDP per capita increased significantly, the ISEW per capita shows a widening gap. Household labour contributes strongly, but income distribution, energy depletion and costs of climate change limit improvement. Sensitivity analysis shows that accumulating climate change costs and escalating energy depletion costs have significant effects. Nevertheless, the new valuation approaches do not alter conclusions that welfare has shown little improvement. The ISEW provides a useful alternative to current indicators such as GDP subject to awareness of limitations. It is a measure of welfare that uses sustainability accounting methods when estimating costs, but is not an indicator of whether welfare is actually sustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessment of the expected impacts from climate change is an essential input for agencies engaged in fostering adaptation of local social-ecological systems. However, data is seldom available at the required scale. This study overcomes this hurdle by gathering data via an expert elicitation protocol. We report experts' judgements about two topics: i) the impacts from climate change on crop yields in three communities located in the Bolivian Altiplano; and ii) the effectiveness of specific irrigation techniques in mitigating the impacts from climate change in the communities under study. Our gathered data allow us to document heterogeneity of expected impacts across communities –with one community expected to experience an increase in yields under wet climate change scenarios. Experts judge irrigation as an effective mitigation tool under most of the dry climate change scenarios presented to them. We believe that our data collection strategy represents a promising decision support tool for a wide range of public policy issues. Particularly, when monetary and time constraints converge with the lack of scientific information. In addition, the information gathered with this methodology can be incorporated into participatory methodologies gathering information from local social-ecological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The perception of risks associated with climate change appears to be a key factor for the support of climate policy measures. Using a generalized ordered logit approach and drawing on a unique data set originating from two surveys conducted in 2012 and 2014, each among more than 6000 German households, we analyze the determinants of individual risk perception associated with three kinds of natural hazards: heat waves, storms, and floods. Our focus is on the role of objective risk measures and experience with these natural hazards, whose frequency is likely to be affected by climate change. In line with the received literature, the results suggest that personal experience with adverse events and personal damage therefrom are strong drivers of individual risk perception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An efficient climate policy is based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and equates marginal abatement costs across all forcing agents affecting climate change. In CBA, the agents' contributions to radiative forcing (RF) must be consistently priced (i.e. the social cost of RF, occurring at a specific time, must be the same regardless of the agent causing it). We present a concept that enables doing so. The Social Cost of Forcing (SCF) is the monetary value of the social damage caused by marginal RF at a given instant (Wm − 2 ). Any forcing agent whose temporal decay profile and radiative efficiency are known can be priced based on it. Prices obtained for distinct agents are consistent in CBA, as long as the same SCF and discounting assumptions are applied. Hence, the SCF is a concise way to communicate social cost information: mutually consistent prices for any set of forcing agents can be obtained based on a single Integrated Assessment Model output, the SCF. We explain the theoretical foundations of the concept and illustrate its practical applications with two examples: (1) we derive SCF-based prices for CO 2 and CH 4 , and (2) we estimate the social cost of albedo changes in a boreal forest stand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite its developing country status, Mexico ranks 10th worldwide in total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, Mexico's vulnerability to climate change impacts is a major motivating factor behind its announced intended contributions at COP21 to cut its baseline emissions by at least 25% in 2030. We analyze the macroeconomic impacts of the Climate Action Plan (CAP) process undertaken in the Mexican border state of Baja California (BC). We adapt a state-of-the-art regional macroeconometric model to analyze the BC economy-wide impacts of 22 GHG mitigation policy options recommended in the Baja California CAP. The combined effects include an average annual increase of 1680 new jobs (or about 0.11% of the average annual employment in the baseline economic forecast) and a Gross State Product (GSP) increase of $9.85 billion pesos in NPV over the 2015–2030 planning horizon. Although the main objective of GHG mitigation is to reduce atmospheric concentrations, and hence future potential damages of these pollutants, the stimulus to the BC economy from the implementation of its CAP represents a valuable co-benefit. Moreover, it is a tangible one that will take place in the near-term, in contrast to the more long-term and more uncertain benefits associated with reducing climate change damages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The processes and impacts of climate change require adaptation through what can be described as horizontal and vertical structures of actors' integration. In climate adaptation and natural resource management literature, this structural component is often related to social capital, which is defined in various ways but usually refers to a public good that is built and fostered within a network of social relations. While hypotheses about social capital in networks are well studied in network literature, here, I argue that they should be reflected and tested in the particular context of climate change adaptation policy. I ask: how do communities affected by climate change and the broad range of actors involved in the design of climate adaptation policies build social relationships? And, how do they manage to maintain those relations over time? To answer these questions, climate adaptation policies in six Swiss mountain regions are investigated via social network analysis. Hypotheses about the creation and preservation of weak versus strong ties under the particular setting of Swiss federalism and climate-affected local communities are tested. Results confirm that the creation of weak ties, such as one-way information transfer, can lead to the establishment of mutual collaboration relations over time. Such mutual and reciprocal relations can then more easily be activated by local communities to produce both short-term responses and long-term solutions to climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical forest conservation is considered a low-cost option for climate change mitigation. But mitigation cost assessments have featured opportunity costs, neglecting policy implementation costs. Here we use official data to identify the Brazilian federal government's operational and institutional budgets related to forest conservation policies implemented from 2000 to 2014. We distinguish the allocated and executed budgets of these policies, and provide scenario-based estimates of their cost-effectiveness. On average, Brazil spent US$ 1 billion/year on forest conservation policies at the federal level. Brazil's substantial reduction in annual forest loss after 2004 was accompanied by a higher operational budget execution of disincentive-based policy instruments, and an absolute increase in both allocated and executed institutional budgets. The post-2004 successful mitigation effort represented additional implementation costs to the Brazilian federal government of US$ 308–923/ha of avoided deforestation, or US$ 0.87–2.60/tCO 2 of avoided emissions. Factoring in also approximate municipal and state expenditures, these costs increase to US$ 385–1153/ha or US$ 1.09–3.25/tCO 2 . We conclude that implementations costs are non-trivial in size, including compared to estimates of land users' opportunity costs. This has important implications for REDD + policy design, in the sense that implementation costs need to be adequately considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

“Ecosystem services” is a phrase with many meanings, yet very few studies have primarily focused on comparing different definitions of the term. Ecosystem services are now generally used in identifying an appropriately wide range of environmental variables for policy and management as well as better understanding the benefits provided by those aspects of the environment. A review of the dominant definitions of ecosystem services reveals the term is comprehensive in its scope and requires further specification for most purposes. Analysis further reveals that there are four main categories of conceptual definitions. The paper concludes that ecosystem services can be identified at various points along the spectrum of nature-human interaction depending on which specific definition is chosen and that the term was not created to identify a novel set of environmental objects or processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change economics is now four decades old. Much of what it has achieved as a field of academic enquiry can be linked back to issues of integrated assessment modelling. This paper shows that the standard approach is going through a major change in scope as of the last five years. The conventional focus on determining optimal mitigation paths based on modelling the social cost of carbon is being enlarged to embrace promising new waves of research. These are: (1) the economics of insurance against catastrophic risks; (2) the economics of trade and climate; and (3) the economics of climate change adaptation. The paper helps to bridge the gap between economics and climate policy by showing that the analytical toolkit of climate change economics has shifted towards more realistic representations of climatic policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional wisdom holds that the state of the economy has a strong impact on citizens' appetite for environmental policies, including climate policy. Assuming median voter preferences prevail, periods of economic prosperity are likely to be conducive, and economic downturns are likely to be detrimental to ambitious climate policy. Using original surveys in the United States and Germany, we engage in a critical re-assessment of this claim. The results show that, for the most part, individuals' perceptions of their own economic situations have no significant effect on their policy support. Negative perceptions of the national economic outlook reduce support for climate policy in the US, but not in Germany. However, the magnitude of this national economy effect in the US is small. On the other hand, individuals' climate risk perceptions consistently have a statistically significant and large effect across various model specifications, and interestingly, this pattern holds for the US, whose government is among the less ambitious in global climate policy, as well as Germany, which is among the frontrunners. Our study indicates that the state of the economy may not trump climate risk considerations as conventional wisdom claims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Faced with a growing sense of urgency to combat climate change, environmental policy is increasingly turning to alternative policy instruments. One method for boosting green behaviour among individuals rooted in applied behavioural economics is loss framing - transforming existing messages so that they emphasise the potential negative consequences of an action or inaction on the environment. This paper provides a systematic review of the existing body of evidence on framing effects in pro-environmental decisions. Based on an analysis of 61 studies captured in 47 distinct papers we find that real behaviour has been largely neglected as an outcome variable, with preference in the literature given to the measurement of self-reporting constructs such as attitudes, willingness to pay and behavioural intentions. In support of the loss aversion hypothesis, loss framing was found to be more or equally effective in all studies examining behaviour and intentions, though gain framing was more successful where the choices taken required lower commitment, namely attitudes. We provide an analysis of other loss framing success factors and draw policy- and research implications. • Loss framing as a green nudge gaining increased traction in policy and research. • Empirical studies on gain- and loss framed environmental messages are reviewed. • Most studies focus on stated preferences at the expense of behaviour. • Loss framing found to be more effective in improving green intentions and behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent article published in this journal, Guarini and Porcile (2016) expanded the Balance-of-Payments Constraint (BoPC) growth model suggesting a way to make it possible to address some of the challenges posed by greenhouse gas emissions. Building on their set up, we formalise into the model a mechanism that explains how people with different environmental attitudes or sentiments influence each other and contribute to the design of environmental policies. We detail the concept of transition probabilities for the agent's switching from pro- to anti-environmental positions and vice-versa and discuss the macroeconomic results that follow. Numerical simulations allow us to investigate in more detail the implications of the validity of Porter's hypothesis as well as to discuss the feasibility of decoupling conditions. A policy implication of our analysis is that we should encourage the dissemination of pro-environmental attitudes among the public because this could lead to a more desirable equilibrium. As important as enhancing public knowledge of climate change is to keep alive the debate at the collective level so as to influence the probability of switching sides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]