Search

Farmers in Europe act within guidelines set by agricultural programs, market demands and biophysical constraints. At the same time, they are social actors embedded in their respective family structures and individual lifestyles and preferences. We here present the socio-ecological land-use model SECLAND that provides an improved representation of the versatility in farmer's characteristics and subsequently its impact on land-use decision making. The model combines (1) an agent-based module (ABM) with farmers as agents whose intrinsic behavioural characteristics are represented via farming styles with (2) a probabilistic GIS-based forest regrowth module. We apply the model for the LTSER Eisenwurzen region in northern Austria to explore land-use patterns until the year 2050 under three different scenarios. Our results show the relevance of explicitly considering differences between the responses of individual farmers to changing framework conditions. In order to devise sustainable development paths for future agriculture, it is important to focus on farmers' well-being and recognize it as being equally important as economic success. • This paper provides the description of the bimodular SECLAND land-use model. • We depict the effect of intrinsic factors on farms decision-making. • We investigate the impact of socio-economic and climatic framework changes on land-use patterns. • We analyse intensity shifts, crop and forest type changes as well as forest transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transformation to climate neutrality of the transport sector raises multiple challenges at a time, with potentially conflicting objectives and further external effects. This calls for a balanced policy package of which empirical assessment is needed in order to i) quantify its effectiveness and ii) reveal effects of potential overlaps and interactions associated with individual measures within the package. This paper analyses the economic, environmental and distributional effects of a policy package that supports low-carbon passenger transport in Austria, co-developed with policy experts and stakeholders. The package includes hard measures such as a mandated phase-out of conventional cars and explicit road pricing, as well as soft measures to foster the uptake of public transportation. To assess these packages we make use of a computable general equilibrium model for Austria that incorporates heterogeneous household groups, CO 2 emissions and a detailed representation of the transport sector. We show that the decoupling of economic welfare and negative external effects of passenger transport is possible with a balanced policy package. Our analysis also highlights potential urban-rural conflicts, regressive impacts and negative public budget implications of single policy measures, issues that the suggested policy package as a whole can mitigate. • We develop policy packages for sustainable passenger transport with experts. • Their effects are analysed using a CGE model of the Austrian economy. • Decoupling of welfare and negative externalities of transport is possible. • Urban-rural conflicts and regressive effects can arise with single measures. • Policy packages can help alleviate potential conflicts and regressive effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will affect tourism as one of the sectors most dependent on natural resources. Due to the strong dependency of many peripheral areas on tourism, climate change has the potential to destabilize regional economies. The objective of this paper is to assess the impacts of climate change on ski tourism demand. A tourist survey (n = 1957) with a choice experiment conducted in 53 ski areas in Austria provides the data for our analyses. Results show that snow is the most important factor for destination choice. Nevertheless, preferences of respondents are heterogeneous. Measures that enhance price-performance ratio, i.e. lowering lift ticket prices and avoiding crowding, turn out to be the most suitable compensation for suboptimal snow conditions. As long as substitute ski areas with better snow conditions exist, destinations with marginal snow conditions are likely to face severe demand losses (up to 60%). Nevertheless, dynamic pricing has the potential to compensate medium snow reliability. If all destinations are affected by deteriorating snow conditions, total demand reduces by 64% if snow reliability is low. If these conditions and effects are limited to the beginning and the end of the ski season, demand is projected to decline by 18%. • Ski area demand losses in winter tourism are severe if substitute destinations with high snow reliability exist. • Medium instead of high snow reliability is economically bearable for ski destinations. • Yield management with dynamic pricing is a suitable compensation for marginal snow. • Low snow reliability and bad snow experiences could cause market-wide demand losses of 64%. • If seasonality of demand is considered, potential impacts are reduced by 18%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]