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Intergovernmental organisations have developed into important sites of normative contestation where increasingly non-state actors participate. A common puzzle is however whether engaged non-state actors represent already strong and established interests or if they also bring forth marginalised voices. This concern raises the pertinent question of what views non-state actors actually represent and if this adds to the perspectives voiced by state actors. This paper examines the views held and voiced by state and a range of non-state participants at the United Nation's climate change conferences. Specifically, questions on what types of climate change solutions are favoured and to what extent these solutions are discussed are addressed. Through statistical analyses of questionnaire data and a content analysis of abstracts of side-events to the conferences, we find that while non-state actors help in broadening the discursive space, some perspectives remain marginalised. We conclude that while non-state actors represent a pluralising force, greater non-state actor participation in intergovernmental organisations is on its own unlikely to lead to democratic global governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically examines whether government ideology and government fragmentation have influenced the process of CO²-emission reductions in the time period 1992-2008. Using data from 19 OECD countries, I find that (1) right-wing governments are associated with emission reduction to a smaller extent than center and left-wing governments and (2) emissions are higher the more parties are in government. On the other hand, the distinction between majority and minority governments has no significant influence on emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The low observed uptake of non-subsidised index-based insurance policies in developing countries has been puzzling researchers for about a decade. This paper analyses the role of drought frequency in farmers' demand for index-based insurance in developing countries. While it is typically assumed that an increase in exposure to risk would result in higher demand for index insurance, this paper finds the opposite: an increase in drought frequency may result in lower demand for index insurance under fairly standard conditions. In an expected utility model, we show that the demand for insurance is an inverted U function of drought frequency. We further show that downside basis risk decreases insurance demand under frequent drought conditions. It implies that insurance against similar but more frequent events cannot meet large demand from farmers. To check the empirical relevance of these effects, we conduct an insurance field experiment in Burkina Faso with 205 farmers. We analyse insurance demand for different drought frequencies, different levels of basis risks and different loading factors through incentivised lottery choices. This analysis confirms that for higher drought frequencies, insurance demand is lower. Insurance demand also decreases with basis risk and the loading factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transformation to climate neutrality of the transport sector raises multiple challenges at a time, with potentially conflicting objectives and further external effects. This calls for a balanced policy package of which empirical assessment is needed in order to i) quantify its effectiveness and ii) reveal effects of potential overlaps and interactions associated with individual measures within the package. This paper analyses the economic, environmental and distributional effects of a policy package that supports low-carbon passenger transport in Austria, co-developed with policy experts and stakeholders. The package includes hard measures such as a mandated phase-out of conventional cars and explicit road pricing, as well as soft measures to foster the uptake of public transportation. To assess these packages we make use of a computable general equilibrium model for Austria that incorporates heterogeneous household groups, CO 2 emissions and a detailed representation of the transport sector. We show that the decoupling of economic welfare and negative external effects of passenger transport is possible with a balanced policy package. Our analysis also highlights potential urban-rural conflicts, regressive impacts and negative public budget implications of single policy measures, issues that the suggested policy package as a whole can mitigate. • We develop policy packages for sustainable passenger transport with experts. • Their effects are analysed using a CGE model of the Austrian economy. • Decoupling of welfare and negative externalities of transport is possible. • Urban-rural conflicts and regressive effects can arise with single measures. • Policy packages can help alleviate potential conflicts and regressive effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper constitutes a first attempt to model the relationship between climate change, biodiversity, and ecosystem services, with a specific emphasis on European forests. Firstly, we construct a composite biodiversity indicator that integrates quantitative and qualitative changes of biodiversity projected to 2050 for the EU-17 under future IPCC scenarios. Secondly, this indicator is integrated into two simultaneous equation models to capture the marginal impacts of changes in biodiversity on the value of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) due to climate change. Our estimation results confirm the role of biodiversity as a nature-based policy solution for climate change mitigation, shedding light on the policy actions that generate co-benefits by enhancing ecosystems' capacity to mitigate climate change impacts, while conserving biodiversity and sustaining the flows of EGS for human livelihoods. Especially, nature-based mitigation policies are more cost-effective and better at coping with the ethic and inequality issues associated with distributional impacts of the policy actions, compared to the pure technical solutions to improving energy efficiency and reducing emissions. However, the strength of biodiversity as a nature-based policy option for climate change mitigation depends on both the nature of the EGS and the geographical area under consideration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper undertakes an exploration of the potential application of the Weitzman prioritisation approach to the conservation of plant genetic resources (PGR). Using a case study approach and assuming limited conservation resources, this approach is applied to calculate the maximum diversity which can be conserved based on a clustering of cacao species (Theobroma cacao L.). A conservation budget allocation model applied across a set of ten clusters and nine subclusters of cacao, together with the use of alternative diversity and risk measures, allowed for an evaluation of a range of potential conservation outcomes. Alternative risk measures generally resulted in the allocation of conservation funds to the same priority clusters of cacao (Criollo and Curaray). However, the use of the number of locally common alleles as an alternative to the original Weitzman diversity measure produced a markedly different result, prioritising the Purús cluster in Western Amazonia. The Curaray cluster was highly prioritised under both diversity measures, indicating its distinctiveness relative to both the Criollo and Purús clusters. We conclude that the Weitzman approach can indeed allow diversity comparisons to be made between the outcomes of different PGR conservation strategies, although subjective decisions regarding the choice of diversity and risk measures remain. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper contributes to the debate on the inducement of environmental innovations by analyzing the extent to which endogenous inducement mechanisms spur the generation of greener technologies in contexts characterized by weak exogenous inducement pressures. In the presence of a fragile environmental regulatory framework, inducement can indeed be endogenous and environmental innovations may be spurred by firms' reactions to their direct or related environmental performance. Cross-sector analysis focuses on a panel of Italian regions, over the time span 2003–2007, and is conducted by implementing zero-inflated regression models for count data variables. The empirical results suggest that in a context characterized by a weak regulatory framework, such as the Italian one, environmental performance has significant and complementary within- and between-sector effects on the generation of green technologies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper argues that it is countries' historical experience with democracy, the democratic capital stock, rather than current levels of democracy that determines current climate change policies. Empirical evidence using data starting as far back as year 1800 for 87 countries, which together are responsible for 93.7% of global carbon emissions, suggests that the democratic capital stock has an important and robust effect on climate change policies. A history of executive constraints is particularly important. The current level of democracy does not play a role once democratic capital has been accounted for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Predictions of future land use areas are an important issue as land use patterns significantly impact environmental conditions (biodiversity, water pollution, soil erosion, and climate change) as well as economic and social welfare. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of aggregated land use share models, we propose in this paper a methodological contribution by controlling for both unobserved individual heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. Our model is a land use shares model applied to aggregated data in France. Our dataset is a panel which covers both time series observations from 1992 to 2003 and cross-sectional observations by Département (equivalent to NUTS3 regions). We consider four land use classes: (1) agriculture, (2) forest, (3) urban and (4) other use. We investigate the relation between the areas in land in different alternative uses and economic and demographic factors influencing land use decisions. Based on the comparison of prediction accuracy of different model specifications, our findings are threefold: First, controlling for both unobserved individual heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation outperforms any other specification in which spatial autocorrelation and/or individual heterogeneity are ignored. Second, accounting for cross-equation correlations does not seem to improve the prediction performances and finally, ignoring individual heterogeneity introduces substantial loss in prediction accuracy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• French people have limited knowledge about climate change but worry about it. • They prefer green investments or regulations to a tax and dividend. • Distributive effects and lack of alternatives prevent carbon tax acceptance. • Improving knowledge is predicted to increase ecological attitudes and concern. • Unlike in the US, partisanship does not interact with education to shape perceptions. This paper aims to assess the prospects for French climate policies after the Yellow Vests crisis halted the planned increase in the carbon tax. From a large representative survey, we elicit knowledge, perceptions and values over climate change, we examine opinions relative to carbon taxation, and we assess support for other climate policies. Specific attention is given to the link between perceptions of climate change and attitudes towards policies. The paper also studies in detail the determinants of attitudes in terms of political and socio-demographic variables. Among many results, we find limited knowledge but high concern for climate change. We also document a large rejection of the carbon tax but majority support for stricter norms and green investments, and reveal the rationales behind these preferences. Our study entails policy recommendations, such as an information campaign on climate change. Indeed, we find that climate awareness increases support for climate policies but no evidence for the formation of opinions through partisan cues as in the US, suggesting that better access to science could foster support for climate policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the potential use of insurance as a climate change adaptation mechanism in agriculture. We analyse the attractiveness of a climate risk insurance scheme and the choices farmers face between adaptation via farm management practices and purchase of crop insurance in the market. A choice experiment is used to reveal Danish farmers' preferences regarding an insurance contract where adoption of land management practices to improve soil sustainability is conditional for obtaining insurance cover in the market. Results indicate that in general arable farmers and farmers with low soil quality who have experienced crop damages in the past are more likely to purchase such conditional insurance. Farmers with good quality soils, who perceive that they have already adapted their practices to climatic risks and who have not experienced losses due to adverse climatic events in the past are less willing to purchase insurance. The paper contributes to the limited knowledge on preferences for climate risk related insurance in agricultural systems in general, and in Europe in particular. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic analysis of climate change requires estimates at both aggregate and local level. Although there are numerous studies that estimate the global impact of climate change, country-level studies are still rare, particularly as far as Italy is concerned. By exploiting a panel of 110 provinces observed between 1980 and 2014, this paper investigates the impact of variation of weather variables on GDP per capita and agricultural productivity in Italy. To address issues of model uncertainty, the analysis explores to what extent these economic outcomes are affected by weather variables, linearly or non-linearly, as well as how their growth rate and levels are affected as a result. Main findings show that there is considerable model uncertainty. The most robust econometric results showing statistically significant effects of temperature for both the GDP and agricultural reaction function are from a levels specification, where temperature is included in a non-linear form while weather variables and economic outcomes enter in first differences. Projections of the impact of climate change by the end of the century show slight average effects for GDP per-capita, but important losses in agriculture, due to a persistent increase in average temperatures under both the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. • We study the economic impact of weather variation on GDP and agriculture in Italy • We exploit a rich panel dataset across 110 territorial units over 1980–2014 period • To address problems of model uncertainty, we compare several different specifications • The "best" performing model is a non-linear specification estimated in first differences • End of the century predictions, suggest nil effects on GDP, but important loss in agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The use of fossil fuels has been a great boon to human civilization. However, given the issue of climate change, it has become clear that this is a time-limited strategy and that we will at some point need to severely curtail, and perhaps ultimately eliminate, this strategy of meeting our energy needs. Given this long-term perspective, the authors argue that continued public investment in fossil fuel industries and infrastructures reflects escalation of commitment, continued investment in a failing strategy. In this context, this paper reviews the research on escalation of commitment and factors that encourage de-escalation, highlighting strategies that citizens can use to encourage politicians and public administrators to protect long-term civic well-being by shifting investments away from fossil fuel industries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Deforestation and forest degradation are estimated to account for between 12% and 20% of annual greenhouse gas emissions and in the 1990s (largely in the developing world) released about 5.8Gt per year, which was bigger than all forms of transport combined. The idea behind REDD+ is that payments for sequestering carbon can tip the economic balance away from loss of forests and in the process yield climate benefits. Recent analysis has suggested that developing country carbon sequestration can effectively compete with other climate investments as part of a cost effective climate policy. This paper focuses on opportunities and complications associated with bringing community-controlled forests into REDD+. About 25% of developing country forests are community controlled and therefore it is difficult to envision a successful REDD+ without coming to terms with community controlled forests. It is widely agreed that REDD+ offers opportunities to bring value to developing country forests, but there are also concerns driven by worries related to insecure and poorly defined community forest tenure, informed by often long histories of government unwillingness to meaningfully devolve to communities. Further, communities are complicated systems and it is therefore also of concern that REDD+ could destabilize existing well-functioning community forestry systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Degrowth is going to happen whether governments want it or not because, as fossil fuels run out, incomes will shrink along with the energy supply. This degrowth can either be unplanned and catastrophic or managed and relatively benign. This paper argues that three tools are essential to avoid degrowth becoming a catastrophic collapse. These are (i) a system to share the benefits from using increasingly-scarce fossil fuels, (ii) new ways of financing businesses and (iii) the introduction of debt-free regional and local currencies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The present paper studies the land use change impacts of fuels and biofuels. We test the theoretical hypothesis, which says that changes in fuel prices cause changes in land use both directly and indirectly and that, because of price inter-dependencies, biofuels reinforce the land use change impacts. We apply time-series analytical mechanisms to five major traded agricultural commodities, the cultivated area of agricultural land and crude oil price. Our data consists of yearly observations extending from 1950 to 2007 for the US. The empirical findings confirm that markets for crude oil and cultivated agricultural land are interdependent: an increase in oil price by 1dollar/barrel increases land use between 54,000 and 68,000ha. We also find that the increase of bioenergy sector accelerates land use change in the US, i.e. food commodities are being substituted for bioenergy crops. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper addresses the role of neoclassical methodologies in ecological economics and the contradictions these methodologies pose to the field''s critical founding principles. We first consider Robert Costanza''s treatment of Nicholas Stern''s Global Deal and then survey climate change-related articles published in this journal over the past five years. This survey reveals how mainstream (neoclassical) methodologies dominate discourse, and do so by marginalizing more critical (political economy) analyses. This situation imperils the field''s founding vision of a no-growth ‘steady state’; it also fails to address the (related) growth dynamics of capitalism. Without such a critical treatment, the field''s formal embrace of ‘methodological pluralism’ actually entails an ideological empiricism that renders ecological economics theoretically incoherent. This situation undermines the field''s historical promise as an alternative economic paradigm. Ecological economics now faces a problematic future. Its survival in a form faithful to its founding vision will require an explicit choice to address its internal contradictions, and reinvent itself in ways relevant to our contemporary context. Without such a choice, ecological economics will likely succumb to an implicit acceptance of the hegemony of mainstream economic methodologies and their pro-growth imperatives. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper analyzes the role of forest-based carbon sequestration in a unilateral EU27 emissions reduction policy under a Global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework. Forestry mitigation is introduced into the model relying on carbon sequestration curves provided by a global forestry model. The structure of the original CGE is extended to consider land use change and timber supply effects, resulting from the use of forest sinks to reduce carbon emissions. Results show that afforestation and timber management could lead to substantially lower policy costs. By using forest-carbon sinks it is possible to achieve the 30% emissions reduction target with an additional European effort of only 0.2% of GDP compared with the cost of a 20% emissions reduction without forestry. Carbon price is also reduced, by approximately 30% in 2020. European forest-carbon sequestration may have, however, the perverse effect of increasing timber production in areas of the world which already have high deforestation rates. A sensitivity analysis on main parameters confirms the robustness of our results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper highlights the findings of a study from selected ecosystems in Indonesia, China and Japan. The study sought to trace changes to productive resources of ecosystems over a period of 50years; and trace the dependence of well-being of local populations on the ecosystems for the same time period. Data was collected from land-use maps, records and participatory rapid/rural appraisal (PRA) surveys in multistakeholder forums. To illustrate the changes, an indicator-based assessment framework was developed that integrates data from biophysical and socio-economic parameters. We observed that the approach (1) provides a better representation of the preferences of different stakeholders of ecosystem services, (2) fosters validation of data between the different stakeholders and (3) enables a communication and planning process among the stakeholders to sustainably utilize and manage their ecosystems. The use of spatial maps validates the relevance and utility of diachronic observations of communities and other stakeholders directly dependent on ecosystems. At the same time, they can be used to strengthen local planning processes for the development of services in the ecosystem. Such research thereby also acts as a catalyst to a social process of coordinated action to address local issues of global relevance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Many new and proposed emissions trading systems involve multiple countries and regions. The introduction of interregional trading raises questions about how flexible state- or national-level authorities should be in allowing individual firms to trade with firms or authorities in other states or countries. This paper uses laboratory methods to evaluate the efficiency and pricing performance of linking trading across regions at the firm-to-firm level. In one treatment, individual firms trade directly with firms or authorities in other regions. We compare performance in this treatment to an intergovernmental trading treatment, where emissions trading is restricted to occur only between intermediaries. A baseline treatment of autarky, where firms only trade with other firms in their country or region, provides a benchmark to assess the efficiency benefits of allowing linking. Although efficiency and price discovery are both improved by allowing intermediation in linked permit markets, we find that further gains can be realized through direct firm to firm trading. Buyers in high cost regions and sellers in low cost regions benefit the greatest from linking. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper discusses the interplay between the choice of the discount rate, greenhouse gas mitigation and endogenous technological change. Neglecting the issue of uncertainty it is shown that the Green Golden Rule stock of atmospheric carbon is uniquely determined, but is not affected by technological change. More generally it is shown analytically within the framework of a reduced model of integrated assessment that the optimal stationary stocks of atmospheric carbon depend on the choice of the discount rate, but are independent of the stock of technological knowledge. These results are then reinforced numerically in a fully specified integrated assessment analysis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Elevated world temperatures, as forecasted by the 4th IPCC report, are expected to increase the hydrological cycle activity, leading to a change in precipitation patterns and increase in evapotranspiration. These in turn are expected to affect river runoff and water variability, depending on basin latitude. In this paper, we assess the impact of water supply variability on ‘treaty cooperation’ (defined here as the likelihood of treaty formation and number of treaties formed) between international bilateral river basin riparian states. The water variability measure that we use captures both annual runoff variability and precipitation variability. We employ additional control variables adopted from economic and international relations theories on international cooperation. The main results suggest that water supply variability in international bilateral basins creates an impetus for cooperation. Our results support an inverted U-shaped relationship between water supply variability and treaty cooperation. Similarly, interactions between the states in the form of diplomatic and trade relations support cooperation. Various measures of democracy/governance suggest different impacts on cooperation. Uneven economic power between the riparian states inhibits treaty cooperation. The geography variables we use are insignificant in all the estimated relationships. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper examines how South American farmers'' choices of livestock species vary across the range of climate and in turn infer from them as to what would happen under climate changes. We examine the choice of five primary species using a multinomial logit model with and without climate variability measures based on 1300 livestock farm surveys in seven countries. The results indicate that climate variables are highly significant determinants of primary species choice after controlling for soils, geography, household characteristics, and country fixed effects. We find the probability of adopting any livestock increases with warming, but decreases when it becomes too wet. The impacts of climate change would vary by species and climate scenarios. For example, under a hot and dry CCC scenario by 2060, beef cattle decrease by 3.2%, dairy cattle by 2.3%, pigs by 0.5%, and chickens by 0.9%, which is offset by a large increase in sheep by 7%. These adaptive changes vary again by country. Large changes are observed in the Andean countries. Under the hot dry scenario, dairy cattle increase in Uruguay and Argentina, but decrease elsewhere. The increase in sheep occurs mostly in the Andes mountain countries such as Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela. Under a milder and wetter scenario, beef cattle choice declines in Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela, but increases in Argentina and Chile. Sheep increase in Colombia and Venezuela, but decrease in the high mountains of Chile where chickens are chosen more frequently. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The rural space is increasingly valued for the multiple ecosystem services that it can deliver. For example, priorities in many lowland floodplains in England have changed in recent years from a focus on agricultural production towards environmental quality and the management of flood risk, in part linked to climate change. Recent concerns about food security, however, may reinstate the importance of agricultural production in these fertile areas. This paper explores changes in rural land use in floodplains by measuring the range of ecosystem services provided under different management scenarios. Generic land use scenarios consider management options that focus on single objectives, such as maximising agricultural production, maximising biodiversity and maximising flood storage capacity. Indicators are developed to value the ecosystem services provided by floodplains under each scenario, identifying potential synergy and conflict. This integrated ecosystems approach can help to inform future policy and practice for floodplain management, hopefully in ways that appeal to key stakeholders. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change research is currently a topic of great interest for economic researchers. In particular, environmental input–output analysis increasingly plays an important role in measuring the economic and environmental effects of sustainable development policies in Europe. Other approaches also exist, such as econometric modelling, in which impacts are quantified on statistical grounds and with certain desirable properties (efficient estimates, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, etc.) that are not found in the input–output approach. Consequently, this paper merges the two approaches to address the calculation of unbiased and consistent carbon dioxide emission multipliers for Denmark and their respective confidence intervals. The use of the supply and use system instead of the symmetric input–output table also presents the opportunity to avoid the common problems associated with the construction of technical coefficients (technology assumptions, negatives, etc.). Moreover, a new policy-relevant application of these multipliers is introduced: the quantification of the performance of the carbon dioxide emission reductions carried out by industries via external trading. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The purpose of this paper is to contribute towards moving the predominant situation of weak sustainable development (WSD) in the direction of strong sustainable development (SSD). More people – academics, politicians, bureaucrats and laymen alike – need to recognize SSD as an alternative to WSD. A joint discourse of WSD and SSD is suggested, called reflexive sustainable development. Here, advocates of WSD and SSD must argue for each specific case why their solution is better. This will expose, amongst other things, the ethical foundations which form part of resulting policy advice. Reflexive sustainable development is to be framed in discourse ethics, thereby remedying the power imbalance and allowing for substantial discussion. Reflexive sustainable development builds on a common theoretical base but will not lead to consensus in all matters. A family metaphor is introduced to inspire a discourse of both consensus and compromise. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Carbon sequestration in forest sinks is an important strategy to remove greenhouse gases and to mitigate climate change; however its implementation has been limited under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol which has not created the incentives for widespread implementation. The objective of this paper is to analyze the sequestration costs of agroforestry afforestation and reforestation projects (ARPs) following a partial market equilibrium using average cost curves and economic break even analysis to identify the supply costs. The modelling done in this work contrasts the voluntary and clean development mechanism transaction costs. Data is based on the voluntary project, Scolel Té, being implemented in Mexico. Cost curves are developed for seven different sequestration options considering transaction and implementation costs; information from agricultural production in Chiapas Mexico is used to integrate opportunity costs of two agroforestry practices suggesting that sequestration costs may follow a "U" shape, with an initial reduction due to economies of scale and a subsequent increase caused by high opportunity costs. The widespread implementation of agroforestry options not requiring complete land conversion (e.g. living fences and coffee under shade) might be cost effective strategies not generating high opportunity costs. Results also suggest that payments in the early years of the project and lower transaction costs favour the development of ARPs in the voluntary market especially in marginal rural areas with high discount rates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The choice of discount rates is a key issue in the analysis of long-term societal issues, in particular environmental issues such as climate change. Approaches to choosing discount rates are generally placed into two categories: the descriptive approach and the prescriptive approach. The descriptive approach is often justified on grounds that it uses a description of how society discounts instead of having analysts impose their own discounting views on society. This paper analyzes the common forms of the descriptive and prescriptive approaches and finds that, in contrast with customary thinking, both forms are equally descriptive and prescriptive. The prescriptions concern who has standing (i.e. who is included) in society, how the views of these individuals are measured, and how the measurements are aggregated. Such prescriptions are necessary to choose from among the many possible descriptions of how society discounts. The descriptions are the measurements made given a choice of measurement technique. Thus, the labels “descriptive approach” and “prescriptive approach” are deeply misleading, as analysts cannot avoid imposing their own views on society. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents a basin scale analysis of the Nilüfer River Basin of Turkey, where agricultural, urban, and environmental users compete for scarce water in an environment where climate change and food security present large and growing challenges. It presents results of a basin scale dynamic nonlinear programming model that addresses economic efficiency, climate change, and food security. Its approach can be applied to other water-stressed regions operating in environments of economic and hydrologic constraints on water use. Basin scale modeling approach provides a general framework for formulating water management policies, consistent with the principles underlying the European Union Water Framework Directive. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper argues that debates amongst economists triggered by the Stern Review are partly relevant, focusing on key parameters translating real ethical issues, and partly misplaced in that they do not consider enough other determinants of climate change damages: i) the specifications of the utility function used for the assessments (preference for the environment, preference for smooth growth paths), ii) the interplay between uncertainty and the sequentiality of the decision, and iii) whether the growth engines behind the integrated assessment models can account for transient disequilibrium and sub-optimality. We derive some suggestions for any future research agenda in integrated assessment modelling, whatever the position of the analysts about the relevance of the intertemporal optimisation framework and the Bayesian approach to uncertainty in the climate affair. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study uses a multi-part, split-sample contingent valuation method (CVM) and fair share (FS) survey to better understand the public's valuation of mitigating global climate change through its willingness to pay for biomass or “cellulosic” ethanol. In addition to a basic CVM question, a related scenario was developed that asked half of the survey respondents to state their fair share cost to lessen a potential food shortage in the next decade, also through the expanded use of cellulosic ethanol. Three alternative biomass feedstocks were assessed: farming residues, forestry residues and paper mill wastes, and municipal solid wastes. Overall a slightly larger proportion of respondents were WTP extra for cellulosic ethanol in the basic CVM scenario than in the FS scenario, though no significant differences were found in the WTP for the different feedstocks. Bid curve lognormal regression results for the two models were similar, supporting the idea that asking a FS rather than a conventional WTP question may be justifiable in some circumstances, such as in cases of a national emergency. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency of hot and dry periods will increase in many regions of the world in the future. For power plant operators, the increasing possibility of water shortages is an important challenge that they have to face. Shortages of electricity due to water shortages could have an influence on industries as well as on private households. Climate change impact analyses must analyse the climate effects on power plants and possible adaptation strategies for the power generation sector. Power plants have lifetimes of several decades. Their water demand changes with climate parameters in the short- and medium-term. In the long-term, the water demand will change as old units are phased out and new generating units appear in their place. In this paper, we describe the integration of functions for the calculation of the water demand of power plants into a water resources management model. Also included are both short-term reactive and long-term planned adaptation. This integration allows us to simulate the interconnection between the water demand of power plants and water resources management, i.e. water availability. Economic evaluation functions for water shortages are also integrated into the water resources management model. This coupled model enables us to analyse scenarios of socio-economic and climate change, as well as the effects of water management actions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The main objective of this paper is to provide additional empirical evidence of what explains respondent uncertainty in contingent valuation (CV) and how this in turn affects stated willingness to pay (WTP). Air travelers asked to pay a carbon travel tax to offset carbon emissions from flying were asked how likely it is that they will actually pay if the tax is voluntary. When changing the market compliance imperative from a mandatory carbon tax to a voluntary contribution, a third of all air travelers consider it unlikely they will actually pay their stated WTP amount. An ordered probit estimation approach is applied to identify the sources of respondent uncertainty. Besides the bid price, respondent sense of responsibility and belief in the effectiveness of the voluntary carbon market are among the main reasons for the experienced uncertainty. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Assessing the benefits of climate policies is complicated due to ancillary benefits: abatement of greenhouse gases also reduces local air pollution. The timing of the abatement measures influences both the economic costs and ancillary benefits. This paper conducts efficiency analysis of ten alternative timing strategies, taking into account the ancillary benefits. We apply the approach by Kuosmanen and Kortelainen [Valuing Environmental Factors in Cost-Benefit Analysis Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Ecological Economics 62 (2007), 56–65], which does not require prior valuation of the environmental impacts. The assessment is based on synthetic data from a dynamic applied general equilibrium model calibrated to The Netherlands. Our assessment shows that if one is only interested in GHG abatement at the lowest economic cost, then equal reduction of GHGs over time is preferred. If society is willing to pay a premium for higher ancillary benefits, an early mid-intensive reduction strategy is optimal. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (i) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (ii) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (iii) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper we evaluate the relationships between household expenditures and the environmental impact categories climate change, acidification, eutrophication and smog formation, by combining household expenditures with environmentally extended input–output analysis. Expenditure elasticities are examined with regression analysis, and are compared and interpreted on the basis of insight at the product level. With data from the Netherlands in the year 2000, we find that environmental impact increases with increasing household expenditures, although the degree to which the environmental impact increases differs per impact category. Climate change and eutrophication increase less than proportionally with increasing expenditures. Acidification increases nearly proportionally with increasing expenditures, whereas smog formation increases more than proportionally. It appears that the mix of necessities and luxuries to which an environmental impact is related is essential in explaining the relationship. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate change will give rise to different impacts in different countries, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. This paper analyses the impact of equity weighting on the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions, and reaches four main conclusions. First, equity-weighted estimates are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may even change the sign of the social cost estimates. Second, estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region to which the equity weights are normalised. Third, equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to the resolution of the impact estimates. Depending on the assumed intra-regional income distribution, estimates may be more than twice as high if national rather than regional impacts are aggregated. Fourth, variations in the assumed inequality aversion have different impacts in different scenarios, not only because different scenarios have different emissions and hence warming, but also because different scenarios have different income differences, different growth rates, and different vulnerabilities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A new momentum is underway to account for emissions from “avoided deforestation and degradation” at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This paper assesses the feasibility of one of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) mechanisms currently discussed, namely that of “Compensated Reduction”, in the case of Cameroon. Here we assess the differential revenues that a farmer could get from 1 ha of land out of two alternative land-uses: shifting cultivation, the traditional land-use pattern in southern Cameroon, or carbon credits as compensation for the conservation of primary forest. It is found that a break-even price of $2.85/t of carbon dioxide equivalent would level shifting cultivation with “Compensated Reduction”. This result suggests that at current carbon prices, and independently form variations in the discount rate, it could already be more profitable to preserve the primary forest rather than to log it in order to grow crops. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to assess the economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing industrial output in Canada to a level that will meet the target set out in the Kyoto Protocol. The study uses an ecological–economic Input–Output model combining economic components valued in monetary terms with ecologic components – GHG emissions – expressed in physical terms. Economic and greenhouse gas emissions data for Canada are computed in the same sectoral disaggregation. Three policy scenarios are considered: the first one uses the direct emission coefficients to allocate the reduction in industrial output, while the other two use the direct plus indirect emission coefficients. In the first two scenarios, the reduction in industrial sector output is allocated uniformly across sectors while it is allocated to the 12 largest emitting industries in the last one. The estimated impacts indicate that the results vary with the different allocation methods. The third policy scenario, allocation to the 12 largest emitting sectors, is the most cost effective of the three as the impacts of the Kyoto Protocol reduces Gross Domestic Product by 3.1% compared to 24% and 8.1% in the first two scenarios. Computed economic costs should be considered as upper-bounds because the model assumes immediate adjustment to the Kyoto Protocol and because flexibility mechanisms are not incorporated. The resulting upper-bound impact of the third scenario may seem to contradict those who claim that the Kyoto Protocol would place an unbearable burden on the Canadian economy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Currently informal and formal international negotiations on climate change take place in an intensive way since the Kyoto Protocol expires already in 2012. A post-Kyoto regulation to combat global warming is not yet stipulated. Due to rapidly increasing greenhouse-gas emission levels, industrialized countries urge major polluters from the developing world like China and India to participate in a future agreement. Whether these developing countries will do so, depends on the prevailing incentives to participate in international climate protection efforts. This paper identifies ancillary benefits of climate policy to provide important incentives to attend a new international protocol and to positively affect the likelihood of accomplishing a post-Kyoto agreement which includes commitments of developing countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Current economic instruments aimed at climate change mitigation focus on CO2 emissions only, but the Kyoto Protocol refers to other greenhouse gases (GHG) as well as CO2. These are CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6. Taxation of multiple greenhouse gases improves the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation. It is not yet clear, however, what the effect is of multigas taxation on the distribution of the tax burden across income groups. This paper examines and compares distributional effects of a CO2 tax and a comprehensive tax that covers all six GHG of the Kyoto Protocol. The study concentrates on the Netherlands in the year 2000. We established tax rates on the basis of marginal abatement cost curves and the Dutch policy target. The distributional effects have been determined by means of environmentally extended input−output analysis and data on consumer expenditures. Our results show that taxation of multiple GHG improves not only the cost-effectiveness of climate change mitigation, but also distributes the tax burden more equally across income groups as compared to a CO2 tax. These findings are relevant for the debate on the role of non-CO2 GHG in climate change mitigation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper explores how South American farmers adapt to climate by changing crops. We develop a multinomial logit model of farmer''s choice of crops. Estimating the model across 949 farmers in seven countries, we find that both temperature and precipitation affect the crops that South American farmers choose. Farmers choose fruits and vegetables in warmer locations and wheat and potatoes in cooler locations. Farms in wetter locations are more likely to grow rice, fruits, potatoes, and squash and in dryer locations maize and wheat. Global warming will cause South American farmers to switch away from maize, wheat, and potatoes towards squash, fruits and vegetables. Predictions of the impact of climate change on net revenue must reflect not only changes in yields per crop but also crop switching. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a simulation model of the formation of the belief in climate change of a business organisation using a systems dynamics approach. Understanding how businesses form their belief on the issue of climate change is of paramount importance given the key role of beliefs and cognitive characteristics in the triggering and shaping of organisational adaptation processes. The main assumption of the model is that the dynamics of belief is driven by the perceived actual and potential changes in competitiveness as a consequence of climate impacts rather than by the growth of an ecological ‘business conscience’. The model has been built using the STELLA software program, and it is based upon theoretical hypotheses drawn from behavioural studies of organisations and evolutionary theories of economic change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper estimates the relationship between average rainfall and population density in Sub-Saharan Africa in order to assess the consequences of climate and demographic changes in terms of future water stress in that region. Geographic Information System (GIS) data on density and rainfall and climate change scenarios are combined in order to identify areas which will be subject to increased pressures stemming from excessive population, given their precipitation levels. We first describe the empirical relationship existing between average yearly rainfall and density over sub-Saharan Africa. The limit of 900 mm of annual rainfall appears to define the threshold below which water constitutes a binding constraint to higher densities. Above that threshold, density and rainfall are not spatially correlated. In a second stage, we identify areas subject to water stress. In our framework, those are defined as zones belonging to the right end of the distribution of densities conditional on average rainfall. In a last step, localized population projections and changes in rainfall predicted by two mainstream climate change scenarios are utilized to assess the respective impacts of those two factors on the changes in extent and distribution of high-stress zones over the continent between 2000 and 2050. If population growth follows projected trends, density increases across the continent should lead to a significant increase in the extent of such zones, especially around the Sahel belt and in Eastern Africa. The impact of changes in rainfall is more difficult to assess, because climate models differ locally as regards projections of yearly rainfall, especially in intermediate zones such as the Sahel. If, according to the predictions of most climate models, the Sahel were to experience average rainfall increases, these would ease, though not offset totally, the pressure stemming from demographic growth in that region. In contrast, in most of Eastern Africa, predicted drops in average rainfall would work in the same direction as demographic changes to increase the pressure on significant parts of the territory. In Southern Africa, demographic stagnation is likely to mitigate significantly the impact of climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka–Volterra prey–predator relations. The predator–prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper utilizes a Ricardian model to test the relationship between annual net revenues and climate across Israeli farms. The study finds that it is important to include the amount of irrigation water available to each farm in order to measure the response of farms to climate. With irrigation water omitted, the model predicts climate change is strictly beneficial. However, with water included, the model predicts that only modest climate changes are beneficial while drastic climate change in the long run will be harmful. Using the AOGCM Scenarios we show that farm net revenue is expected to increase. Although Israel has a relatively warm climate a mild increase in temperature is beneficial due to the ability to supply international markets with farm product early in the season. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Scientific information on the size and nature of the threat of climate change is needed by politicians in order to weight their decisions. Computerised models are extremely useful tools to quantify the long-term effects of current policies. This paper describes a new modelling approach that allows formulation of industrial energy demand projections consistent with the assumptions for scenario drivers such as GDP and population. In the model, a level of industrial production is used as a key variable, and we define it in physical units, rather than in monetary units. The aim of this research is to increase insights that come with long-term energy demand scenarios. This research clearly shows that physical indicators provide additional insights in scenario analysis. The use of physical indicators instead of monetary indicators seems to affect the energy scenarios significantly. The differences with monetary indicators are larger in developing regions than in OECD regions. We conclude that an integrated energy and materials approach reveals developments that are hardly visible using a monetary approach. Moreover, this research shows the potential and benefits of the use of physical indicators for scenario development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Based upon climate change research conducted with Inuit from Chesterfield Inlet, Nunavut and a philosopher from Iqaluit, Nunavut, this paper proposes that market economic rationality limits the general Western approach towards climate change and indigenous knowledges. Building upon ecological economic research which indicates that there is little difference between the economic assumptions which are related to the onset of human-induced climate change and those underlying the proposed solution, these Inuit voices critique the separation of their knowledge—Inuit Qaujimaningit—into the research categories of ecological knowledge and traditional understandings as a means for economically adapting to climate change. It is suggested that Inuit knowledge of climate change offers a challenge to economic rationalization if researchers move beyond a mere documentation of ecological knowledge and engage the interconnected cultural understandings. The conclusion proposes that the relation between culture and ecology should be of significant interest to ecological economic thinking that aims to consider economic rationality, the global economy, and its climatic impacts in the context of bioregional adaptations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper explores the interactions between carbon dioxide emissions taxes and a pre-existing income tax in a numerically calibrated model of climate change and the world economy. Based on evidence from the recent empirical literature, the model allows for the presence of relative consumption effects in the specification of preferences. In the absence of relative consumption effects, optimal emissions taxes would rise from US$44 to US$229 per tonne of carbon (in year 2000 dollars) over the course of the next century. These tax rates, which arise when emissions tax revenues are used to reduce taxes on personal income, are slightly above the present value marginal benefits of emissions control. Given realistic assumptions concerning the empirical magnitude of relative consumption effects, the optimal emissions tax rises from US$63 per tonne in 2005 and US$384 per tonne in 2105. Accounting for relative consumption effects reduces the perceived social benefits of consumption, thus increasing social willingness to pay for environmental quality while reducing both the costs of tax interaction effects and the benefits of efficient revenue recycling. Taken together, these factors support the implementation of comparatively high environmental taxes in the face of relative consumption effects. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]