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This paper analyzes the effect of inherent uncertainty on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a policy aimed at reducing expected climate change impacts. To do this, it relates outcome uncertainty to the probability of occurrence of one of these impacts within a given time horizon. Unlike the existing studies, this paper links outcome uncertainty to the uncontrollable component of environmental uncertainty derived from the stochastic nature of an ecosystem's behavior. Results show that the WTP for the policy in the presence of uncertainty does not decrease compared to the scenario where climate change impacts are assumed to occur with certainty. This suggests individuals are adopting a precautionary attitude when stating their WTP. Thus, the paper provides economic justification for preventive measures in highly uncertain contexts. However, findings are not conclusive with respect to the influence of the degree of uncertainty on the support for such measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International attempts have not succeeded in addressing climate change, leaving an even heavier responsibility on countries, firms and people. As tourism is an expanding branch in the world economy, it is crucial to focus on how climate change issues are addressed in this industry as well. This paper analyses a group of tourism firms in Norway that join together to promote growth and profitability in winter tourism. The span in how these firms deal with environmental issues ranges from ecotourism till not addressing the subject at all. Although the majority of the firms have environmental issues on the agenda, environmental issues are not included in the cooperation. We use critical discourse theory to explore how this stance on environmental issues within a cooperation has come about, and categorize the firms into three discourses: neoclassical economics, environmental economics and ecological economics. Our data indicate that the hegemonic power of neoclassical economics hampers an environmental focus in the network. This power is exerted through the position of being environmentally indifferent. The paper adds knowledge to economic discourses on firm level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to analyze climate change and ecological destruction through the prism of the core general principles of political economy. The paper starts with the principle of historical specificity, and the various waves of climate change through successive cooler and warmer periods on planet Earth, including the most recent climate change escalation through the open circuit associated with the treadmill of production. Then we scrutinize the principle of contradiction associated with the disembedded economy, social costs, entropy and destructive creation. The principle of uneven development is then explored through core–periphery dynamics, ecologically unequal exchange, metabolic rift and asymmetric global (in)justice. The principles of circular and cumulative causation (CCC) and uncertainty are then related to climate change dynamics through non-linear transformations, complex interaction of dominant variables, and threshold effects. Climate change and ecological destruction are impacting on most areas, especially the periphery, earlier and more intensely than previously thought likely. A political economy approach to climate change is able to enrich the analysis of ecological economics and put many critical themes in a broad context. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

With rapid economic development, higher income levels, urbanization and other socio-economic drivers, people's lifestyles in China have changed remarkably over the last 50 years. This paper uses the IPAT model (where I =Impact representing CO2 emissions, P =Population, A =Affluence, and T =emission intensity) to analyze how these main drivers contributed to the growth of CO2 emissions over this time period. Affluence or lifestyle change has been variously recognized as one of the key factors contributing to CO2 emissions. Through comparative analysis of the development of five regions in China, we trace lifestyle changes since the foundation of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949 until 2002. We find that household consumption across the five regions follows similar trajectories, driven by changes in income and the increasing availability of goods and services, although significant differences still exist between and within regions due to differential policies in China and different possibilities for social mobility. There are considerable differences between the southeast and northwest and between urban and rural areas. We also found that technological improvements have not been able to fully compensate for the increase of emissions due to population growth and increasing wealth, which is also in line with results from other studies. Finally, this paper emphasizes that developing countries such as China, which is home to 22% of the world population and a growing middle class, and which is on a fast track to modernization, need to ensure that people's lifestyles are changing towards more sustainable ways of living. China has been investing heavily in infrastructure and thus creating the emissions of tomorrow. Thus investing, for example, in public transport and low energy building today will help reduce emissions in the future and will support more sustainable lifestyles. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The requirement to reduce emissions to avoid potentially dangerous climate change implies a dilemma for societies heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Reducing emissions will necessitate the transition from relatively high EROI dispatchable fossil fuels to a combination of relatively low EROI intermittent renewables and geographically limited non-intermittent renewables. As renewable capacity requires energy to construct there is an initial fossil fuel cost to creating new renewable capacity. An insufficiently rapid transition to renewables will imply a scenario in which it is impossible to avoid either transgressing emissions ceilings or facing energy shortages; we term this the energy-emissions trap. In this paper, we construct a mathematical model, termed EETRAP, that builds the EROI metric and the energy characteristics of renewable generation into a macroeconomic framework. EETRAP is used for simulation analysis to test how differing assumptions about the EROI of intermittent renewables will affect the time-path of renewable investment necessary to escape the energy-emissions trap. For all runs of the model, the renewable investment rate by 2050 is significantly larger than the current energy investment rate. For declining intermittent renewable EROI, the renewable investment rate crowds out other forms of investment leading to a declining economic growth rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing globalisation and climate change are challenging the sustainability of our societies. It is now clear that climate change and its devastating impacts cannot be resolved by new technology or governance alone. They require a broader, cultural shift. As a result, the role of human beings' ‘inner dimensions’ and related transformations is attracting increased attention from researchers. Recent advances in neuroscience suggest for instance that mindfulness can open new pathways towards sustainability. However, the role of mindfulness in climate adaptation has been largely ignored. This paper is the first exploratory empirical investigation into linking individuals' intrinsic mindfulness (as opposed to outside mindfulness interventions) to pro- and reactive climate adaptation. Based on a survey of citizens at risk from severe climate events, we explore if, and how individual mindfulness is correlated with climate adaptation at different scales. The results show that individual mindfulness coincides with higher motivation to take climate adaptation actions or to support them, especially actions that are ‘other-focused’ or support pro-environmental behaviour. Mindfulness may also corroborate the acknowledgement of climate change and associated risk perception, and it may steer people away from fatalistic attitudes. We conclude with a call for more research into the relationship between human beings' inner dimensions and climate adaptation in the wider public domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops an Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare for Spain from 1970 to 2012 and seeks to update valuation approaches to a number of items. Two approaches have proven particularly controversial over recent decades; the costs of energy depletion and of climate change. The valuation implications in measuring present welfare have proven problematic, as both include future sustainability consequences arising from resource depletion and environmental impacts. This study includes a ‘ transition cost ’ approach to energy depletion, a modified approach to costs of climate change and water pollution, and removes the cost of ozone depletion. The results illustrate that while GDP per capita increased significantly, the ISEW per capita shows a widening gap. Household labour contributes strongly, but income distribution, energy depletion and costs of climate change limit improvement. Sensitivity analysis shows that accumulating climate change costs and escalating energy depletion costs have significant effects. Nevertheless, the new valuation approaches do not alter conclusions that welfare has shown little improvement. The ISEW provides a useful alternative to current indicators such as GDP subject to awareness of limitations. It is a measure of welfare that uses sustainability accounting methods when estimating costs, but is not an indicator of whether welfare is actually sustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ambitious climate policy increases the cost of energy and therefore has important interactions with the prospects of development in the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. These interactions include the potential for gain for the continent in the form of new trade opportunities and climate finance. In this paper we quantify the costs and benefits of climate policy in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using an Integrated Assessment Model, we consider key characteristics of the continent, including the favorable conditions for renewable energy. A newly designed scenario analysis allows identifying the main drivers of the results. We show that Sub-Saharan Africa could implement climate policy in line with the 2 °C target at roughly net zero costs if the international community follows up on its commitment towards supporting developing countries as declared in the Paris Agreement. Sub-Saharan Africa could become an important supplier of energy from biomass and could thus even benefit from more ambitious climate policy due to higher demand for this source of energy. The absence of a painful trade-off between short-term development and long-term climate stabilization could provide policy-makers with a much richer policy option space than previously considered. One such option is to link climate policy with poverty reduction through, for example, the provision of clean electricity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the factors that influence farmers' decision-making in adopting climate change adaptation strategies and how these adaptations impact on farm yields. We employ a simultaneous equations model to investigate the differential effects of adaptation on adapters and non-adapters. An endogenous switching mechanism is employed to account for selectivity bias. Based on a survey of 422 rice farmers in Nepal, our results show that farmers' education, access to credit and extension services, experience with climate change impacts such as drought and flood, information on climate change issues, belief in climate change and the need to adapt all variously determine their decision-making. We find that the adaptation strategies employed by farmers significantly increase rice yields. Furthermore, results indicate that both adapters and non-adapters would benefit from the adaptation of the identified strategies. This study, therefore, provides supportive evidence for policy makers to take into consideration farmers' existing knowledge and skills in adapting to climate change. The findings show that it is imperative to involve farmers in climate change adaptation planning processes if the full benefits of such policy action are to be realized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concerns about climate change are growing, and so is the demand for information about the costs and benefits of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This paper seeks to estimate the benefits of climate change mitigation, as measured by the public's willingness to pay for such policies. We investigate the preferences of Italian and Czech households towards climate change mitigation policy options directly related to residential energy use. We use discrete choice experiments, which are administered in a standardized fashion to representative samples in the two countries through computer-assisted web interviews. Our preferred estimates of the willingness to pay per ton of CO 2 emissions avoided is €133 for the Italians and €94 Euro for the Czech respondents (at 2014 purchasing power parity). We find evidence of considerable heterogeneity in WTP driven by income. The two samples differ in their within-sample income elasticities of WTP, but comparison across the two countries suggests an income elasticity of WTP of one—or even greater than one for certain mixed logit specifications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on metrics to measure contributions to climate change from emissions of different greenhouse gases divides into studies that highlight physical aspects and studies that show the importance of economic factors. This paper distinguishes the physical aspects and implications of economic factors by asking what is demanded from physically based metrics if used for a specific policy objective. We study the aim of maximizing the welfare of emissions generated by consumption when there is a limit to the increase in global mean temperature. In that case, metrics ought to change over time, with increasing weight on short-living gases before the temperature limit is met. Metrics for short-living gases increase also with increasing uncertainty. Adjustments to new information spur higher metrics for short-living gases if it reduces the expected allowable emissions before the target is met, and lower metrics in the opposite case. Under a binding target, metrics refer to the instantaneous impact on radiative forcing multiplied by the lifetime of the respective gases, and adjusted by the attitude to risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In integrated assessment models (IAMs) economic activity leads to global warming, which causes future economic costs. However, typical IAMs do not explicitly represent the role of natural capital. In this paper, the DICE model by Nordhaus (2008) is expanded with a natural capital variable that is affected both by climate change and by depletive effects of economic activity. Due to a synergy between the two effects, the optimal policy of the expanded model features more and earlier abatement of CO 2 emissions than DICE. Interestingly, the policy implications are different from what follows if one tries to capture the depletive effects on natural capital by simply reducing factor productivity growth in DICE. Acknowledging considerable uncertainty, simulations show that climate- and savings rate policies from the expanded model are more robust in the long term than policies that do not consider non-climatic depletion effects on natural capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The choice of discount rates is a key issue in the analysis of long-term societal issues, in particular environmental issues such as climate change. Approaches to choosing discount rates are generally placed into two categories: the descriptive approach and the prescriptive approach. The descriptive approach is often justified on grounds that it uses a description of how society discounts instead of having analysts impose their own discounting views on society. This paper analyzes the common forms of the descriptive and prescriptive approaches and finds that, in contrast with customary thinking, both forms are equally descriptive and prescriptive. The prescriptions concern who has standing (i.e. who is included) in society, how the views of these individuals are measured, and how the measurements are aggregated. Such prescriptions are necessary to choose from among the many possible descriptions of how society discounts. The descriptions are the measurements made given a choice of measurement technique. Thus, the labels “descriptive approach” and “prescriptive approach” are deeply misleading, as analysts cannot avoid imposing their own views on society. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study uses a multi-part, split-sample contingent valuation method (CVM) and fair share (FS) survey to better understand the public's valuation of mitigating global climate change through its willingness to pay for biomass or “cellulosic” ethanol. In addition to a basic CVM question, a related scenario was developed that asked half of the survey respondents to state their fair share cost to lessen a potential food shortage in the next decade, also through the expanded use of cellulosic ethanol. Three alternative biomass feedstocks were assessed: farming residues, forestry residues and paper mill wastes, and municipal solid wastes. Overall a slightly larger proportion of respondents were WTP extra for cellulosic ethanol in the basic CVM scenario than in the FS scenario, though no significant differences were found in the WTP for the different feedstocks. Bid curve lognormal regression results for the two models were similar, supporting the idea that asking a FS rather than a conventional WTP question may be justifiable in some circumstances, such as in cases of a national emergency. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Assessing the benefits of climate policies is complicated due to ancillary benefits: abatement of greenhouse gases also reduces local air pollution. The timing of the abatement measures influences both the economic costs and ancillary benefits. This paper conducts efficiency analysis of ten alternative timing strategies, taking into account the ancillary benefits. We apply the approach by Kuosmanen and Kortelainen [Valuing Environmental Factors in Cost-Benefit Analysis Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Ecological Economics 62 (2007), 56–65], which does not require prior valuation of the environmental impacts. The assessment is based on synthetic data from a dynamic applied general equilibrium model calibrated to The Netherlands. Our assessment shows that if one is only interested in GHG abatement at the lowest economic cost, then equal reduction of GHGs over time is preferred. If society is willing to pay a premium for higher ancillary benefits, an early mid-intensive reduction strategy is optimal. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate change will give rise to different impacts in different countries, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. This paper analyses the impact of equity weighting on the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions, and reaches four main conclusions. First, equity-weighted estimates are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may even change the sign of the social cost estimates. Second, estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region to which the equity weights are normalised. Third, equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to the resolution of the impact estimates. Depending on the assumed intra-regional income distribution, estimates may be more than twice as high if national rather than regional impacts are aggregated. Fourth, variations in the assumed inequality aversion have different impacts in different scenarios, not only because different scenarios have different emissions and hence warming, but also because different scenarios have different income differences, different growth rates, and different vulnerabilities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Scientific information on the size and nature of the threat of climate change is needed by politicians in order to weight their decisions. Computerised models are extremely useful tools to quantify the long-term effects of current policies. This paper describes a new modelling approach that allows formulation of industrial energy demand projections consistent with the assumptions for scenario drivers such as GDP and population. In the model, a level of industrial production is used as a key variable, and we define it in physical units, rather than in monetary units. The aim of this research is to increase insights that come with long-term energy demand scenarios. This research clearly shows that physical indicators provide additional insights in scenario analysis. The use of physical indicators instead of monetary indicators seems to affect the energy scenarios significantly. The differences with monetary indicators are larger in developing regions than in OECD regions. We conclude that an integrated energy and materials approach reveals developments that are hardly visible using a monetary approach. Moreover, this research shows the potential and benefits of the use of physical indicators for scenario development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]