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• Tree ring is an ideal indicator of annual total grain production parameters. • Tree growth synchronized with grain production, and concurrent response to climate. • Reconstruction of total grain productivity based on dendrochronology. • To explore the relationship between total grain sown area and climate change. Climate change affects the growth of regional vegetation; both trees and grain crops often change concurrently, such that the annual radial growth of trees shows consistent inter-annual variations with the total grain crop productivity. However, it remains unclear whether they exhibit concurrent responses to climate factors, and that there lacks of the study on long-term high-resolution variations of grain crops productivity. This paper employs a Pinus massoniana tree-ring series from the Tongbai Mountains to analyze the correlations between tree-ring chronology, local climate data and grain productivity indicators (i.e., total sown grain areas (TSA), total grain outputs (TGO), and average grain yield per hectare (YPH)) of Henan Province in central China. The results indicate that temperature in March and August was the main limiting factor on tree growth, and the best concurrent relationship with tree growth was TSA, which has a correlation of 0.747 (p < 0.001) during 1959–2020. Therefore, a 124-year TSA series in Henan Province was reconstructed using tree-ring data from the Tongbai Mountains, which reveals there were two distinct low periods of total grain sown area in the 1920 s-1930 s and 1980 s-2000 s. There are significant cycles of about 2.57a (p < 0.01), 2.89a (p < 0.05), and 10.95a (p < 0.1), indicating that vegetation growth might be affected by large-scale climate forcing, such as ENSO (2-7a cycle) and sunspot activity (11a cycle). Overall, this study outlines a new approach to understand long-term changes in grain production, which is conducive to grain management and socioeconomic sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A Water-economy-ecology concept framework is established. • An evaluation index system of 3 aspects including 15 indicators is constructed. • EFAST-Cloud model is innovatively proposed and applied in regional WRCC evaluation. • The WRCC of Henan Province is evaluated at the watershed scale and municipal scale. Water is the basic need for human survival and the development of economy and ecology. Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) modelling is a fundamental task to explore the interaction mechanism between economy-ecology development and water resources carrying system. To reasonably quantify the regional WRCC, an evaluation method based on Water-economy-ecology (WEE) concept framework and EFAST-Cloud model is proposed in this study, and Henan Province of China is selected as a typical study area. It can both identify the inter-feeding relationships between sub-systems and evaluate the proportion of each grade in detail by reflecting the randomness and fuzziness of the evaluation. A total of 15 indicators including water system, economy system, and ecology system are constructed. The study analyzes the sensitivity of indicators by using Simlab software and then calculates the weight of indicators by using EFAST method. Compared with other traditional methods, EFAST algorithm is a special method for model sensitivity analysis, which can fully consider the coupling effect between indicators. According to the statistical data of 2010, 2015, and 2020, the WRCC at the watershed scale and municipal scale in Henan Province are evaluated through the EFAST-Cloud model. At the watershed scale, the ecology system criterion layer performs best over the multiple years, the Huaihe and Yangtze River basin have better WRCC at the target layer. At the municipal scale, Xuchang, Luohe, and Zhumadian have better WRCC, Puyang, Zhoukou, and Jiaozuo are slightly worse. The results show that WRCC of the study area has shown an overall improvement, but there is still much space for its development. Therefore, targeted recommendations are made for the water, economy, and ecology system respectively. The conclusion of this paper can provide a reference for the government in making water resources management policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]