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• A practical and feasible protection strategy for EC maintaining in highly urbanized areas was proposed. • Key patches for EC maintaining were identified by using stepping stone and complex network theories. • The protection rate for key patches by the new policies were assessed. Maintaining and restoring ecological connectivity (EC) are important measures of mitigating habitat isolation caused by urbanization. Considering the prominent contradiction of land use in highly urbanized areas, the EC protection measures proposed in the previous studies, such as expanding the ecological sources and widening the ecological corridors, are unrealistic. By using the stepping-stone and complex network theories, this paper simulated the ecological network (EN), evaluated the centrality of each ecological source and stepping-stone, and analysed the network robustness under different damage scenarios, then identified the optimal strategy and key patches for EC maintaining. Meanwhile, this paper evaluated whether the key patches are protected by China's new policies, which are, Ecological Protection Red Line (EPRL) and the Three Lines One Permit (TLOP). The results were as follows: (1) The EN is composed of 53 ecological sources and 291 stepping-stones, with 591 links between them. (2) The network stability can be optimally maintained by prioritizing the protection of stepping-stones with high centrality. (3) The 53 ecological sources and 51 stepping-stones with the highest centrality can ensure the stable operation of the EN, that is, they are key patches for EC maintaining. (4) Compared with EPRL, the protection rate for ecological sources and stepping-stones are significantly improved by TLOP; however, stepping-stones with high centrality require stronger protection. This study enriched the research cases of complex network theory applied in landscape ecology, and provided references for the improvement of policies in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Construct a correlation model of land use transition and ecological restoration in karst mountain areas of Southwest China. • Reveal the feedback mechanism and coupled correlation model of land use transition and ecological restoration in karst mountain areas of Southwest China. • Use a long-time series of data to explore the evolution of land use transition and ecological restoration in case areas. Land use transition (LUT) impacts regional land use and the ecological environment. To reveal LUT and its ecological effects in karst mountain areas (KMA) of Southwest China, this paper first constructs a correlation model between LUT and ecological restoration in the region and carries out an example verification in the typical KMA, the Huajiang Canyon. The study demonstrates that: (1) LUT has occurred in KMA of Southwest China, mainly, the area of sloping cropland has decreased, and the forest land has increased. Land use patterns have shifted from traditional farming to modernized economic and fruit forestry; (2) The driving forces of LUT in KMA of Southwest China can be summarized into three factors: socio-economic, natural, and policy, among which natural factors are the basic conditions of LUT, socio-economic factors play a decisive role in the process of LUT, and policy factors provide policy guarantee for LUT; (3) LUT in KMA of Southwest China has curbed land degradation, promoted ecosystem restoration, and made a certain contribution making China greener, which is conducive to achieving the goal of sustainable development. This paper explores the characteristics of LUT and its driving forces in KMA of Southwest China from the coupling analysis of LUT and ecosystem, reveals the effects of LUT in KMA of Southwest China, and provides some theoretical references for the balance between high-quality development and ecological protection in KMA of Southwest China from the perspective of LUT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A comprehensive assessment method of cropland abandonment risk based on AHP and PCA was proposed. • The verification results show that the risk assessment method proposed in our article is objective. • The high risk area is mainly distributed in the Lancang and Honghe River Basin. • Suggestions for preventing cropland abandonment are based on dominant factors of abandonment. Assessing the risk of cropland abandonment in mountainous area is essential for ensuring food security. However, the current evaluation indicator system is incomplete, and the reliability analysis of the results is lacking. This paper proposes a spatially comprehensive assessment method of cropland abandonment risk based on AHP and PCA using multi-source data of land use, abandoned cropland, administrative area, population density, GDP, cropland soil information, and climate, and applies the method to Yunnan Province in China. Firstly, 14 indicators were selected from four aspects, including social factors, farming conditions, cropland quality, and climate factors, to construct a three-layer indicator system of "target-criteria-indicator". Fuzzy membership was used to calculate the indicator layer, and then the PCA method was applied to calculate the first principal component for the criterion layer. Finally, the AHP method was used to calculate the weighted superposition of the criterion layer. The proposed method showed good reliability in the study areas. In Yunnan Province, 33.03% of cropland is at high risk of abandonment, 37.52% is at medium risk, and 29.45% is at low risk. The high risk area is mainly distributed in the Lancang River Basin and Honghe River Basin. Social factors were found to play the greatest role in the risk of cropland abandonment in Yunnan Province. Factors such as low population density, large shape coefficient of cropland, and low annual average precipitation were identified as the main drivers of cropland abandonment in this region. The research results of this paper can provide decision-making reference for preventing and controlling cropland abandonment in mountainous areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Constructing ALUBs evaluation index system based on the needs in the current era. • Analyzing spatial–temporal evolution of ALUBs in the BTH region from 2000 to 2020. • Applying the Mechanical Equilibrium Model to explore the tradeoffs/synergies. • Exploring the coordination levels and deviation directions of ALUBs. • Proposing differentiated management measures based on regional conditions. As urbanization and industrialization accelerate, the imbalance in agricultural land use between economic development, social security, and ecological protection becomes increasingly apparent. To achieve sustainable utilization of agricultural land, it is essential to promote the coordinated development of economic, social, and ecological benefits. To this end, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for agricultural land utilization benefits (ALUBs) based on three dimensions of economy, society, and ecology and adopts the Mechanical Equilibrium Model to analyze the spatial–temporal evolution of ALUBs and their tradeoffs/synergies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region at the county scale from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate that: (1) economic, social, and comprehensive benefits increased significantly, while the ecological benefit remained relatively stable; (2) the overall coordination degree of ALUBs increased continuously, albeit with evident spatial differences; (3) with the rapid growth of social benefit, the deviation types shifted from economic and ecological benefit dominant areas to social benefit dominant areas. Corresponding suggestions for sustainable agricultural land use are also proposed based on the characteristics of ecologically fragile areas, core urbanization areas, and major grain-producing areas, respectively. This paper can serve as a useful reference for the sustainable utilization and management of agricultural land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Natural resource endowment theory has been applied to explore the response mechanisms in the evolution of ecosystem service values and land use landscape patterns. • During the study period, both ESV and landscape patterns in Nanchang has changed. • Changes in landscape patterns have a significant effect on ESV. • By identifying key landscape pattern features, relevant suggestions are made to improve the ESV in Nanchang. Based on the natural resource endowment perspective, this paper examines how landscape patterns change over time and how ecosystem service value (ESV) responds to these changes, which plays an important role in rationalizing land use to make international wetland cities more sustainable. To identify the spatial and temporal variations in landscape patterns and ESV in Nanchang City and to investigate their relationships between them, six periods of land use data and associated socio-economic data from 1995 to 2020 were chosen as a sample of international wetland cities. The findings demonstrated that during the study period, the land use pattern of Nanchang City formed a landscape pattern dominated by cropland and supplemented by wetland, construction land, and woodland. And the ESV increased from 18,887.96 to 20,900.44 million yuan, with a total increase of 10.66 % in 25 years. Among them, the contribution of wetlands to the ESV was more than 71 %. The study also discovered that changes in landscape patterns significantly affect the ESV in Nanchang City, and the impact of landscape changes on the ESV varies among lands. In addition, although the ESV in Nanchang City has increased, there is still a risk of landscape fragility. This paper proposes relevant suggestions for increasing the ESV in Nanchang City by identifying key landscape pattern characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• MCCA model improves the accuracy of land use structure simulation in YRD. • The index of land ecological risk assessment is expanded and optimized based on the regional characteristics of the YRD. • The ecological risk levels in 2020, 2025 and 2035 are evaluated considering ecological and economic benefits. • The spatial and temporal changes and aggregation patterns of ecological risk levels are discussed from both city-scale and patch-scale. • Several suggestions are provided for formulating more scientific and effective land use management strategies. Since land resources are essential to human survival, the over-exploitation and unreasonable utilization of land threatens the sustainability of human society. This paper uses the well-developed Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region as a case study, and adopts an improved Mixed-cell Cellular Automata Model (MCCA) to simulate the potential utilization of land resources in 2025 and 2035. Then, the paper attempts to construct a comprehensive assessment system that integrates multiple indicators, and evaluates regional risk changes at a micro patch-cell level and a macro city. The results suggest that (1) The utilization of land resources varies greatly in the YRD region from 2020 to 2035. While Shanghai will continue to make use of available built up land resources, the majority of land resources in Jiangsu Province will shift away from being agricultural in nature. Since forests make up a majority of the land resources in Zhejiang Province, and forests and agricultural land make up a majority of land resources in Anhui Province, the change in land utilization in these two provinces will be more gradual. (2) Changes in land utilization are also likely to cause ecological risks. The risk level in Shanghai is the highest, it is relatively high in Zhejiang but is likely to decrease, relatively low in Jiangsu but likely to increase, and Anhui has the lowest risk level. (3) The K-means clustering method obtained three ecological risk zones of the YRD, and the overall risk level is the highest in the central-eastern zoning ③, followed by the southern zoning ②, and the lowest in the northern zoning ①. Furthermore, the agglomeration pattern of the three zones transforms from L-L to H-H. (4) This paper puts forward corresponding suggestions and countermeasures for four aspects, including the strengthening of agricultural land protection, the regulation of built-up land use expansion, the coordination of an all-rounded approach of urban development, and the fostering of regional sustainable development, in hopes of optimizing land usage and alleviating ecological risk levels. Scientific estimations of potential ecological risks are critical to avoiding future ecological crises thus contributing to more sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The runoff, sediment load and runoff erosion power decreased significantly. • Compared with runoff, runoff erosion power-sediment relationship is better. • The power function of runoff erosion power and sediment is better than linear. • Erosion in particular geographic locations responds strongly to runoff erosion power. In recent years, the acceleration of urbanization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) has brought about problems such as soil erosion, ecosystem degradation and decline in ecological service functions. Therefore, this paper selects the Fujiang River Basin (FRB) in Upper Yangtze River (UYR), and analyzes the relationship between runoff erosion power (REP) and sediment transport (ST) on the basis of analyzing the variation characteristics of hydrological elements. Based on SWAT model, a variety of scenarios are set up to quantitatively analyze the impact of different land use changes on runoff and ST and REP in the basin. The results indicated that: (1) The annual precipitation in FRB from 1960 to 2018 did not change significantly, while the annual runoff, annual ST and annual REP decreased significantly. Compared with runoff and runoff depth, the relationship between sediment transport modulus (STM) and REP is the best, especially the power function between them is better than the linear function. (2) The results of the evaluation indexes of the simulation results of the SWAT model based on the measured runoff and sediment data from 2008 to 2018 are pass and above, that is, the simulation results are considered reliable. (3) Under the five scenarios of conversion of sloping farmland to forest, conversion of dry land to paddy field and conversion of grassland to bushland and forest land, the runoff and ST in the basin decreased but the overall range was small. The simulation results of SWAT model show that the erosion of specific areas in the basin shows the greatest degree of weakening with the decrease of REP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Explore how environmental regulation impacts the urban land use of eco-efficiency. • An inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental regulation and urban land use eco-efficiency. • The mediation model is used to analyze the mediation effect. • The mediated chain model is used to analyze the conduction pathway. • Environmental regulation improves urban land eco-efficiency mainly through mediating effects. Due to high pollution and low eco-efficiency of urban land use, the sustainable development of urban economy and ecology is restricted. Environmental regulation (EnR) is essential for the government to guide the eco-efficient use of land resources, solve environmental problems, and promote ecological civilization construction. Utilizing a dataset comprising 266 cities in China from 2011 to 2021, this paper studies the intermediary effect of green technology innovation (GTI) and industrial structure optimization (ISO) in EnR affecting urban land use eco-efficiency (ULUEE). The results show that: (1) The EnR significantly promotes the improvement of ULUE, reaching 0.354; (2) EnR also promotes GTI and ISO to 0.653 and 0.189, respectively; (3) From the results of mediating effect, GTI and ISO are mediating variables that affect the level of ULUEE. GTI also affects ULUEE through ISO. From the perspective of the path coefficient of the chain mediating effect, the influence coefficient of path① (EnR → GTI → ULUEE) is 0.107, path② (EnR → ISO → ULUEE) is 0.111, and path③ (EnR → GTI → ISO → ULUEE)) is 0.043; (4) There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the effects of EnR on ULUEE; (5) In the heterogeneity analysis, the effect of EnR on ULUEE is more evident, but the impact is less pronounced in eastern cities and large cities of scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The measurement model is reliable to unveil the spatial pattern of mixed land-use. • Public awareness is a novel and reliable indicator for correcting POI data. • The layout of mixed land-use in Chengdu is unevenly distributed in space. • There is a significant spatial correlation between mixed plots at the same level. • Optimizing the layout of mixed land can improve land use efficiency. In the context of urban quality enhancement, resilience focus, and the promotion of human-centered urbanization, a well-structured mixed land-use layout plays a pivotal role in intensifying conservation land use, enhancing land use efficiency, and improving residents' living environments. The existing research on measuring mixed land parcels is hampered by a lack of area and category data for POI point data, and some methods neglect the variations in function quantities. This paper establishes an optimal calculation model by incorporating the weighted optimization of POI data, introduces the concept of land gravity to supplement the entropy method, and computes the distribution of mixed land-use patterns. This paper analyzes both the spatial patterns of mixed land-use in urban areas and the potential laws governing the combination of internal functions. The results demonstrate that mixed-use parcels exhibit a spatial pattern resembling a "1 + n" pole-axis structure and a "T-type" development trend. Regarding the internal function combination, mixed-use parcels are generally found to include commercial and transportation functions. The paper provides suggestions and discussions on optimizing the layout and function structure of mixed land-use, offering a reference for current urban mixed land-use planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper constructed a framework for green water assessment in the Loess Plateau gully region using MIKE SHE model. • A new concept and extraction method for green water components was defined based on existing research. • A new concept of the potential of green water was defined in relation to the dried soil layers' classification indicators. • We assessed the dependence on green water components and potential for environmental changes. Exponentially increasing water demand and increasingly uncertain hydrological conditions due to climate change (CC) and land use/cover change (LUCC) undoubtedly pose significant challenges to the sustainability of water systems in arid and semi-arid regions worldwide, and even more so in the rain-fed agricultural area of the Loess Plateau (LP) in China, where green water supports all ecological landscapes and most agriculture. Therefore, an accurate assessment of green water resources is crucial for regional development. This paper constructed a comprehensive framework for assessing green water resources based on the MIKE SHE model, defined a new concept of green water components (GWCs) that can be extracted based on existing studies, proposes the potential of green water (GW P), and present a research methodology. To validate this research framework, we applied it to a typical basin in the LP gully area of the Nanxiaohegou (NXHG) basin. The model was calibrated using runoff data from basin outlet stations to extract four GWCs: high-efficiency green water (GW H), low-efficiency green water (GW L), unused green water (GW U), ineffective green water (GW I). We then assessed the GW P of the basin and analyzed its trends, consistency, and dependence on changing environments. The assessment framework is simple and easy to use, providing valuable information for regional revegetation and basin water management, and is highly recommended for replication in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Farmland loss is a critical issue, especially in the Global North and Europe. • Integrated planning solutions to reduce this phenomenon are lacking. • An index to identify the urbanisation risk areas in farmland is proposed. • Zoning, physical features and financial aid are considered as risk factors. • The index could be used for spatial planning and rural development. Abstract Identifying and protecting vulnerable agricultural areas is a major priority, especially in Europe, in the context of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and zero net land degradation target. Although it has generated serious public attention for its implications for rural development, bio-economy and land use development and change, the vulnerability of farmland in the face of competing land uses has been an issue that few studies have considered in a holistic way. On the one hand, effective planning tools are lacking, especially in terms of tools to identify urbanisation risk areas. On the other hand, in some cases, there are not even comprehensive government procedures to support the protection of vulnerable farmland and encourage sustainable development of farm activities. In this paper, the author shows how integrated planning tools and methods are probably the most promising solutions to protect farmland and strengthen its cultural and socio-ecological values. The paper focuses on an index to identify risk areas (particularly by using an Italian case study), in order to respond to the current operational gap, as well as to support the difficult decision process oriented to overcome land related conflicts. The index could be used at several decision-making levels and in many sectoral plans, especially in the frame of European spatial planning and rural policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Scarcity of historical landscape data alleviated by leveraging old paper maps. • Automatic analysis of old maps aided by object-based and Random Forests algorithms. • Shapes/geometries less useful than spectral features in object-based classification. • The first of its kind demonstrating value of old/ancient maps for a large US region. • Rescue and geotag current data as baselines for future ecological monitoring. Abstract Tracking Earth's past helps us to move from hindsight to foresight in seeking landscape sustainability, a pursuit aided by modern mapping capabilities but hindered by a dearth of historical landscape information. To fill the data gap and exemplify the use of old maps for land-use change sciences, we combined an old paper-based US civil war map and modern aerial photos to derive land-use history and landscape dynamics at fine scales for a region near Chancellorsville, USA, from 1867 to 2014. We also tested how advanced algorithms—object-based image analysis and Random Forests (RF)—could aid in data processing. Automatic classification of the scanned 1867 paper map proved difficult, but its manual digitization could benefit from object-based image segmentation. Classifying digital aerial images was more accurate via the object-based than pixel-based method, but only if the images were segmented appropriately. In the object-based classification, spectral-based features were much more important and useful than shape/geometry features for land-cover discrimination, as ranked by RF. During the 147 years, 32% of the region changed in land type. Settlement and roads increased in extent by 1850% and 691%, respectively, and woodland decreased by 19%. These changes fragmented the landscape, altered the hydrological regime, and affected river morphology. The utility of old maps exemplified here provides an impetus for leveraging extant old maps or historical records to support land-use and global change research. Our study also connotes the importance of preserving and geotagging current non-traditional data, such as photos, videos, and citizen science data, that can serve as a baseline to document future landscape change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • We propose an indicator-based framework to assess landscape's cultural heritage. • The framework joins historic land use and element indicators for cultural heritage. • Each indicator shows different spatial distributions of Scottish cultural heritage. • The use of single indicators simplifies complex cultural heritage values. Abstract The cultural heritage of landscapes makes an important contribution to people's local identity, which enhances the human-nature relationship and informs decision making. However, cultural heritage assessments in the context of cultural ecosystem services are still challenged by the lack of coherent methods to assess the spatial distribution of cultural heritage. This paper addresses the questions: how can complex cultural heritage be captured with objective indicators and how are cultural heritage values spatially distributed in Scotland? The aim of this paper is to develop an indicator-based framework for the mapping of cultural heritage, which will be tested for its applicability by assessing cultural heritage in a Scottish national level case study. The developed hierarchical framework includes both, indicators related to historic land uses (Time Depth) and historic elements (Historic Richness) that are aggregated to a higher methodological level for mapping the spatial distribution of cultural heritage value. The application of the framework in the case study has shown its capability to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of cultural heritage in Scottish landscapes. The results identify landscapes that represent cultural heritage hotspots of Scotland (e.g. crofting landscapes, settlements shaped by early industrialisation or the Drumlin Lowlands). Different landscape units and classes are highlighted by either historic land use or elements, which underline the specific contribution of different indicators to the overall cultural heritage indicator. Land use-based indicators highlight landscapes with early-introduced, medium-dynamic land use patterns, while element-based indicators highlight landscapes with a long tradition of settlements. The proposed framework emphasises the importance of systematic indicators for cultural heritage, which reflect both quantitative and qualitative aspects of human influence on land use and the built environment. These aspects are difficult to include in a single indicator. The findings can improve the integration of cultural heritage values in decision-making processes and the development of more objectively assessable indicators for other cultural ecosystems services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address the pressure of the ecological degradation, an ‘Ecological Control Line’ (ECL) policy has been implemented in China since 2005. This paper aims to examine the effects of ECL and its supporting policies on maintaining ecosystem services within the context of Chinese high-speed economic growth and rapid urbanization. The paper is a product of previous research into the valuation of ecosystem services in monetary units and discusses a method of translation from the unit area value of China’s ecosystem service value (ESV) to Wuhan City by the adjustment of the functional coefficient and economic coefficient. The evaluation of the effects of the ECL policy on ESV is divided into two time-periods. One is from 2009 to 2011 before the implementation of the supporting policies, and the other is from 2012 to 2014 after the implementation of the supporting policies. The total ESV within the Wuhan ECL area dropped by 1.54% from 2009 to 2011 and then increased quickly by 38.71% from 2012 to 2014, coinciding with the application of ECL supporting policies during 2012–2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we describe methods to establish the relationships among geomorphology (physiographic) data, topography, and physical parameters in different-sized catchments using GIS techniques. GIS software allows performing interpolation point, vector or raster analysis based on topographic parameters, simultaneously with mapping land use. This technique depends on the quantity of spatial information. Our objective was to explain the most important geomorphological parameters with an emphasis on surface erosion in mountain areas. Assessment of fluvial sediment in streams is essential to evaluate surface run-off. In the present paper, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were applied to show relationships among total phosphorus, nitrate nitrogen and suspended sediment concentration using architecture based on geomorphological features. Results may be applied at a catchment scale of 1 km 2 to more than 50 km 2 . Our methods are important for investigating the land-use for final assembly depending on sediment-erosion appraisal. This understanding is critical for developing geomorphological models to predict the detachment of soil and transport from their mass, derived-debris material and surface run-off. Our approach will be useful for land management to evaluate risks of sediment transport and raindrop splash and rill erosion in mountainous catchment areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An "economic-social-ecological" ILU value accounting system was developed and applied. • Significant differences were found generated by the ILU value in different projects. • The integrated value of ILU in the TLGP was 177,189,300 yuan. • The integrated value of ILU in the Xinmeng River project is significantly higher than other projects. • The ILU at different stages basically showed the law of diminishing marginal utility. Assessing the value of land resources is a prerequisite for resource management, as well as for resolving the conflict between supply and demand. In the realm of intensive land use (ILU), a standardized framework for accounting methods from a project perspective has yet to be established. Therefore, taking the Taihu Lake governance project (TLGP) (which includes the Xingou River project, Xinmeng River project and Zoumatang River project) as a case study, this paper firstly constructs an integrated value accounting system based on economic, social and ecological frameworks. Furthermore, with consideration of physical parameters, we incorporated the integrated land section price method, income reduction method, alternative market method, and equivalent factor method are all incorporated to assess the value of ILU at distinct stages within the research area. This approach serves to elucidate the evolving dynamics of ILU valuation. The results showed that: (1) There were significant differences in the values generated by the ILU in different projects. The integrated value of the TLGP brought about by ILU was 177,189,300 yuan, and the ILU of the Xinmeng River project was significantly higher than the Zoumatang River project and the Xingou River project. (2) The ILU at different stages basically displayed the law of diminishing marginal utility. Consistent with changes in the different stages of the TLGP, the value of ILU in Stage I of the Zoumatang River project and the Xingou River project was significantly higher than that in Stage II. Additionally, the accounting system proposed in this study has the advantages of reasonable index setting and simple process operability. This helps to realize the comparison of ILU values across projects and stages. The results of this study can provide a reference for the management and sustainable use of land resources during the construction of water conservancy and other projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Anthropogenic pressure on the ecotone decreases biodiversity at suburban boundaries. • The decline of vegetation and water-absorbing areas in suburbs hinders resilience. • The untapped potential of settlement boundaries negatively affects habitats. Settlement boundaries in suburbanised areas represent a specific environment connecting the settlements with the surrounding open landscape. Traditionally, tall vegetation (such as orchards planted in the backyards) used to form this boundary, providing a gradual transition as well as a wide range of ecosystem services. With suburbanisation, however, there appears to be a trend towards sharper boundaries between the open landscape and the settlement. The degree of the effect of suburbanisation on the boundary has, however, not been thoroughly explored yet. In this paper, the current character of such boundaries is evaluated from the perspective of land use and potential for tall vegetation. In addition, possible impacts of such changes are discussed, and measures for preventing these impacts are proposed. On 50 suburbanised settlements in the Czech Republic, the land use types, water permeability, and suitability for the growth of tall vegetation within an 80 m belt enveloping the boundary between the settlement and open landscape were analysed using ArcGIS tools and artificial intelligence algorithms. The dominant land use types were Residential on the inner side of the margins and Farmland on the outside of the margins, with a few meters of the transitional zone. These homogeneous land use types represented approx. 70 % of land use types at a distance of 10 m or more from the boundary. The representation of water-absorbing areas on the residential side of the boundary declined from 80 % at the settlement boundary to approx. 55 % at 40 m inside the settlement; this drop was even more pronounced for areas suitable for tall vegetation (from 90 % at 20 m outside of the boundary to 70 % at the boundary and 35 % at 40 m within the settlement). However, the potential for planting tall vegetation at the outer margins is underutilised. The dominance of farmland in the immediate vicinity of the boundary between suburbanised settlements and open landscape and the underutilisation of the potential for planting tall vegetation on the outer margins deprive the settlements of ecosystem services of such ecotone and lead to the loss of habitats for wild animal and plant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Maximising conservation benefits on state-owned land. • Quantifying land costs, ecological values and human values in an integrated climate context. • Adaptation of model parameters to research sites based on machine learning. • Ecological corridors avoiding the objective fragmentation of the Marxan model results. • Phased implementation of conservation plans. In China, especially in countries with state-owned land use rights, the loss of urban bird diversity due to rapid urbanisation can't be contained or ameliorated by equitably weighing the ecological and economic values of land. Climate change could further threaten urban bird biodiversity and ultimately lead to a "tragedy of the commons". The Beijing Ecological Cultivation Area (BECA) is one such area that has suffered from low eco-efficiency due to climate change and chaotic management. There is a need to find more effective solutions for urban bird conservation to reduce the negative impacts of rapid urbanisation while avoiding wasting more conservation costs. For this purpose, the protection priorities for BECA based on 4 global future climate models (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) for the years 2041–2060, 56 species of local resident birds in the "Beijing Terrestrial Wildlife - Birds" were used as study subjects, which were identified through systematic conservation planning (scp) with combinatorial modelling (MaxEnt-Marxan). In addition, three scenarios were innovatively developed in Marxan with maximum respect for the original land use types. The eco-efficiency and eco-corridor of these three scenarios were compared and identified through ArcGis. The results of the survey show that 'Comprehensive Conservation' has the largest mean distribution area, with the results for RCP 2.6–8.5 being: 52.34%; 65.25%; 48.34%; and 45.42%. It had the highest spatial continuity, the lowest fragmentation, and the highest conservation efficiency. Moreover, We recommend a phased implementation of the conservation plans and and suggest planning options for three landform types: High-altitude mountain; Medium or Low-altitude shallow mountainous; and Water conservation areas. It is important to establish ecological corridors from the Huairou district's northern part to the Yanqing district's northeastern part and beyond. This paper quantifies the land costs, ecological values and human impact factors of the planning area in a comprehensive climate context with the theme of conserving urban bird diversity. This study aims to maximise the conservation benefits of urban bird diversity and to provide basic research for ecological conservation on state-owned land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Integrate Comprehensive index for ES (CES) into FLUS-InVEST framework. • Integrate various factors into neural network models to improve simulation accuracy. • The comprehensive development scenario can coordinate ecology and economy. • The rapid expansion of living space is inevitable in all scenarios. Ecosystem services (ES) play a crucial role in the sustainable development of human society. It is essential to clarify the impact of land use changes on ES to facilitate sound land spatial planning. This study focuses on the Ji'an area of Jiangxi Province as the research subject. The Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model is employed under the 'Production-life-ecological space' (PLES) policy scenario to simulate land use changes in the Ji'an area from 2020 to 2040. A comprehensive evaluation index for ecosystem services (CES) is constructed based on existing policies and ecological conditions in Ji'an City. It is then integrated into the FLUS-InVEST framework to simulate various development scenarios in the future. The results reveal that under the living space priority (LSP) scenario, construction land exhibits the highest growth rate, reaching 59.8%. Under the ecological space priority (ESP) scenario, the forest area is projected to increase by 0.54%. Only under the Productive Space Priority (PSP) scenario will cultivated land experience an increase, at a rate of 3.69%. Notably, CES remains relatively stable only in the ESP scenario, while declining in all other scenarios (ranging from 1.19% to 1.83%). Based on the simulation calculations, a Comprehensive Development (CD) plan for Ji'an is proposed, aiming to optimize the coordination among production, living, and ecological spaces and facilitate the restoration of ecosystem services. Compared to the 'business as usual' (BAU) scenario, the CES value of the CD scenario is expected to increase by 0.61%. In summary, this paper presents an exploratory study that combines the FLUS-InVEST framework with the unique development scenario of the Ji'an region in an innovative way. The proposed planning and recommendations for future sustainable development contribute to a deeper understanding of the impact of socio-economic activities on the ecological environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last century, soils have been over-exploited by humans through agriculture and industrial development. The need to assess different aspects of soil degradation has become a priority in the soil protection management. Among several indices developed in the last years, QBS-ar (Soil Biological Quality-arthropod) index joins the biodiversity of soil microarthropods community with the degree of soil vulnerability. Up to now, numerous publications have reported the results of the QBS-ar application. This paper starts a review process for QBS-ar assessment by taking into account its potential in highlighting the relationship between soil quality and different land uses. In order to clarify the relationship between QBS-ar values and land use, we collected 41 published papers that reported of QBS-ar applications. In this framework, another aim of this paper is to make a critical review of the QBS-ar in respect to applications in different environmental contexts, and to obtain critical indication about problem and potential of QBS-ar for monitoring activities. We collected published data on QBS-ar and we individualized eight groupages in relation to soil uses: 1) Agriculture lands (A, several crops, till and no-tillage, organic, conventional), 2) Woods (W, forests, maquis and bushes), 3) Restored (R, plant remediation, restored pit mine, peri -urban uncultivated areas), 4) Natural degradation (ND, soils in natural degraded conditions, e.g. serpentine soils, soil in the brÛlé), 5) Permanent grasslands, pastures and meadows (G), 6) Orchards (O), 7) Urban parks, residual urban woods, public gardens, botanical gardens, home gardens (UP), 8) Soils involved in human degradation (D). The results confirmed that land use significantly affects QBS-ar values. The overall mean of QBS-ar = 93.7 can be considered a tentative threshold that separates high quality soils and values which are typical for poor soils. In the end, we would like to affirm the validity of this index, which, allows to evaluate the suffering state of soils and its potentiality for an expeditious use to evaluate soil biological quality in recovery areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of vulnerability of socio-ecological systems to threats of different types such as extreme climate events or change in land use draws attention to the factors and processes that determine whether the ecological, social and integrated socio-ecological systems are likely to experience harm due to exposure to the threat. During the last years there has been an increasing attention to the analysis of the vulnerability of socio-ecological systems when facing the lost or degradation of ecosystem services. However, despite the existence of conceptual frameworks and empirical applications to evaluate vulnerability of socio-ecological systems some open questions and challenges still remain. How to conceptually differentiate key concepts such as sensitivity, exposition, vulnerability and threat? How to consider the differences in socio-economic characteristics of the beneficiaries and in their capacity to adapt to new conditions of the ecological system? How to link ecological vulnerability with the social system analysis to obtain an integrated risk assessment of the socio-ecological system? This paper presents a conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment of socio-ecological systems that addresses the mentioned open questions based on a review of both theoretical and empirical literature related to vulnerability and socio-ecological systems. The paper identifies the attributes and indicators of the dimensions of vulnerability for understanding both the social vulnerability and ecological vulnerability separately and then jointly, in interaction with each other. The framework offers a way to communicate with practitioners and policy makers on identifying and improving the factors that reduce vulnerability. It can thus serve as a tool for targeting the implementation of policies and practices aimed at reducing vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Trade-offs in compensated cropland quality and ecosystem services exist. • Lower cropland quality yet higher ecological cost as compensated cropland increase. • Strict cropland protection is not suitable for rapidly urbanizing areas. Urban expansion is taking in cropland at unprecedented rates worldwide, especially in China. In order to guarantee national food security, China has been implementing the strictest cropland protection policies in the world. The purpose of cropland protection policies in China is to keep the quantity and quality of cropland from declining. The loss of cropland resulted from urbanization is required to be compensated by occupying natural or semi natural land, which leads to a sharp degradation of the terrestrial ecosystem services. As a result, it is crucial to explore the relationship between cropland quality and ecosystem services with different amounts of compensated cropland required by cropland protection policies. In this paper, we evaluated the impacts of the combination of urban expansion and cropland protection policies on trade-offs between cropland quality and ecosystem services in Wuhan, China. Specifically, we simulated land use changes with different amounts of cropland compensation in order to reveal the relationship between cropland quality and ecosystem services of marginal compensated cropland. Results show that, with more cropland are compensated, the quality of marginal compensated cropland decreases while the marginal loss of ecosystem services increases. Our study indicates that, an increasing amount of compensated cropland would result in relative lower quality of compensated cropland with relatively higher ecological cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A multi-sphere assessment of ecosystem service provision. • Application of the multi-criteria decision analysis approach for land use changes. • Illustration of impacts and trade-offs between ecosystem services across Denmark. Close to 60 per cent of the Danish land area is used for arable farming. EU regulations as well as public preferences create increasing pressures for changing agricultural land use in a more environmentally sustainable direction incorporating the multiple ecosystem services affected by agriculture. In this paper we present a spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis model which describes the trade-offs between the rent obtained from land in agricultural use on the one hand and selected ecosystem services on the other. The model is based on an extensive geographical dataset. This include maps on soil types, carbon content, sensitivity to nutrient losses, High Nature Value scores etc., which in combination with environmental criteria facilitates the ranking of all agricultural fields in Denmark according to their current overall worth to society in terms of land rent as well as other ecosystem services. Picking from a ranked list, we identify areas that may be considered efficient candidates for land use change considerations. Subsequently, the model is applied to identify suitable candidate areas for land use change in scenarios attaching different weights to various environmental services. In this way, four scenarios for Danish agricultural land use in 2050 are analysed. The results highlight that the possible realization of each of these mutually exclusive scenarios will require decision makers to consider very different development paths and land use changes for the Danish agricultural area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Changes in green and blue spaces in Kraków, Poland from 2002 to 2022 have been modeled. • The models of the green and blue spaces variables are nonlinear. • The high power of the tests for trend was demonstrated using Monte Carlo simulation. • The area of green spaces has been demonstrated to decline, while blue spaces grew. • Meadows was most significant changes in the last 20 years. Green and blue spaces are an important part of a healthy urban environment. This study evaluates temporal patterns of urban green and blue space structure changes in Kraków, Poland over the last two decades (2002–2022). Annual land use time series of the following variables were employed: green spaces, blue spaces, forest land, meadows, pastures, and leisure land. The analysed data were provided by the Head Office of Geodesy and Cartography in Poland from the public cadastral register. The paper employed statistical methods, including the Mann-Kendall (MK) test for monotonic trend. It further used the Akaike information criterion, an approach founded on the information theory, to select one of four potential models (linear, quadratic, power, or logarithmic). The results indicate a trend in each of the six series. The area of green spaces has been demonstrated to decline while blue spaces grew. The most significant changes from 2002 to 2022 occurred in the area of meadows, which shrunk by 509 ha and in pastures, which declined by 351 ha. Forests and wooded areas grew by 324 ha and leisure lands by 1 ha, while blue spaces expanded by 160 ha in total. The results can be useful for drawing up informed, sustainable governance strategies for urban green and blue spaces. The research is relevant to the urban environment because the distribution of urban green and blue spaces is critical for ecosystem services. Moreover, such research is not common, which is indicative of its originality and confirmed by the bibliometric analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Geological disasters in hilly areas are related to Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes. • The number of geological disasters in the cultivated land area is the largest. • The point density of geological disasters and vegetation coverage is limited. • Geological disasters are more likely to occur in the period of heavy rainfall. • The closer geological disaster to river, the greater probability/scale of occurrence. Sichuan hilly area is located in southwest China, which have many hilly area, is a densely populated, economically active, frequent geological disasters area. In this paper, Neijiang City in the region is taken as the test sample. This article, which analyzes Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes (LUCC), meteorological and hydrological data from 2015 to 2020, takes Neijiang City in this region as the research object. We explored the relationship between geological disasters such as collapse and landslides that often occur in the natural ecological environment with LUCC and meteorological and hydrological factors, using GIS spatial analysis and statistical analysis methods. The research results indicate that geological disasters mainly occur in farmland areas. The density of geological disaster points is highest within urban areas, making them the most prone to geological disasters. Geological disasters are more densely distributed in the area within 600 to 800 m from the river. There is a strong correlation between the average rainfall amount and the probability of geological disasters occurring. This study provides a scientific basis for the geological disaster risk assessment, prevention and control in this region. It has certain reference significance for the ecological environment governance, land resources planning and management in other similar regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • We quantified the impacts of land use changes and dam construction on flood regulation service (FRS). • A transfer matrix of ecosystem FRS was developed associating with land use changes. • Both the amount and direction of land use changes play key roles in influencing the ecosystem FRS. • Land use outweighted dams in forming the annual FRS supplies. • Increases in FRS supply came more from dam construction (84.65%) than land use changes (15.35%). Flood regulation service (FRS) is essential for a sustainable landscape and human society. It is not only subject to land use changes, but also affected by engineered measures (e.g., dam construction). However, the comprehensive impacts of the two major driving factors are still to be elucidated. To fill the research gap, this paper aims to evaluate the response of basin-scale FRS supply and demand to land use changes and dam construction. A case study in the Yangtze River Basin, China, shows that the 2020 FRS supply is mainly from land uses (84.85%) rather than dams (15.15%), with the biggest contributions from water bodies (rivers and lakes, 30.00%) and forests (29.35%). Between 1980 and 2020, the total FRS supply has increased by 10.50%, from 1.48 × 1010 m3 to 1.64 × 1010 m3. The net increase mainly comes from dam construction (84.65%) rather than land use changes (15.35%). Regarding the land use changes, the developed transfer matrix shows the ecosystem FRS flows and indicates that both the land use change amount and direction play a key role, e.g., the declines in farmlands have increased ecosystem FRS supplies when transiting into forest lands (by 3.68 × 108 m3) and water bodies (by 1.37 × 109 m3), while have decreased the ecosystem FRS supplies by −1.96 × 107 m3 with the transition into construction lands. These findings could shed light on the divergent roles between land-based measures and engineered measures in managing flood risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Transfer of cultivated land helps to reduce the intensity of fertilizer and pesticide inputs. • The contribution of cultivated land transfer to the reduction of fertilizer and pesticide input intensity is 5.74% and 7.47% respectively. • Reducing fertilizers and pesticides is important to improve the sustainable use of cultivated land. The ecological protection of cultivated land (EPCL) is of great significance for enhancing its sustainable use and is also a practical material vehicle for maintaining national food security. Using data from a sample of 7,473 rural households from the 2015 China Household Finance Survey, this paper applies an endogenous switching regression model and Fields decomposition method to assess the impact of cultivated land transfer (CLT) on EPCL (i.e., fertilizer and pesticide input intensity, abbreviations is FPII). The empirical results show that farmers' participation in CLT can significantly reduce FPII. When it is assumed that households not participating in CLT participate in CLT, their FPII would be reduced by 52.39% and 17.56% respectively. The study further confirms that CLT has a positive effect on EPCL, contributing 5.74% and 7.47% to the reduction of FPII, respectively. In addition, agricultural subsidies, cultivated land titling, the size of cultivated land, the use of large-scale machinery, pollution of cultivated land, and farm income all positively affect farming households' participation in CLT. Therefore, based on CLT, promoting large-scale and mechanized cultivated land management and deepening EPCL with the goal of reducing fertilizer and pesticide use are important approaches for enhancing the sustainable use of cultivated land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The spatial competitions contribute to the evolution of rural residential land (RRL). • RRL in study area is characterized with "dense in the west and sparse in the east". • Evolution of RRL is impacted by macro factors and micro housing selection. • Spatial distribution pattern of RRL will remain nearly unchanged in the long run. Spatial systematic competition definitely contributes to rural residential evolution. Rural residential land of mountainous economic circle is generally hard to govern due to the disturbances from natural factors and economic activities. This study established a framework and adopted Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), Geographical detector (Geo-detector) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) to examine the evolution characteristics, drivers and trends of rural residential land of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle(CCEC). Our research uncovered that: 1) The competitions between rural living space (RLS), rural production space (RPS) and rural ecological space(RES) substantially contribute to the evolution of rural residential land according to the conceptual framework, and the evolution in mountainous economic zone is greatly impacted by the close coupling interaction of macro driving factors and micro farmers' housing selection. 2)The characteristics of rural residential evolution of Chengdu-Chongqing area presents "dense in the west and sparse in the east", and the majority of which are concentrated in Sichuan Basin and Chengdu plain area. 3) Although the size of rural residential land in Chengdu-Chongqing area presents a fluctuant downward trend according to the simulation results, the spatial distribution pattern will remain nearly unchanged in the long run. 4) Rural residential evolution reflects the interactional process of muti-factors, as well as the matching result between man-land relationship and regional development goals under the land use policies. Overall, The theoretical and empirical research form the perspective of spatial competition in this paper provides a new idea for future studies on the evolution of rural residential land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Geo-informatic Tupu, Markov, and Barycenter models were used to analysis the spatiotemporal evolution. • ESV caused by LUCC showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing during 2000–2020, exhibiting a cumulative decrease. • Water areas and wetlands have contributed outstandingly to the ESV of Tianjin. • LUCC, NDVI, and DEM are the main ESV spatial heterogeneity factors. Revealing the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem service value (ESV) is a prerequisite for regional ecosystem management. This paper integrates the Geo-informatic Tupu method, the Markov transfer model, and the Barycenter model to propose an analytical method for the spatiotemporal response of ESV to land use/cover change(LUCC). Taking Tianjin as the empirical study area, we estimated its ESV and spatiotemporal transfer, rise and fall changes, and migration of the barycenter. The results showed that: (1) The land use composite index of Tianjin increased, and land use changes tended to level off throughout the study period. (2) From 2000 to 2020, ESV rose and then fell, with a total decrease of 8.03 billion RMB. (3) The change of Tupu is most dramatic in Xiqing, Binhai New Area, and Dongli, where economic and social growth is rapid. The barycenter of transfer Tupu shifts from centralized distribution to decentralized distribution around Dongli, and the ESV tends to increase to the south. (4) LUCC, NDVI, and DEM mainly drive the spatial heterogeneity of ESV in Tianjin. This research offers new insights into the spatiotemporal evolution analysis of ESV and could provide scientific references for regional ecological management and policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The equilibrium degree of the per capita urban construction land area is significantly improved at both the prefectural- and county-level. • Both the compliance rates of intensification and coordination dimension for urban human-land match are improved at the county- and township-level. • Combination types with obvious spatial differences are identified at the county- and township-level respectively. • The underlying mechanism at the township-level is defined by Kaya identity and further quantitatively deconstructed by the LMDI index. Understanding the urban human-land interaction at multiple administrative levels comprehensively plays an important role in the refined governance and thus provides critical references for urban planning and management. This paper analyzes the relationship between urban population and urban construction land in Hangzhou from perspectives of equilibrium, intensification and coordination at the multi-level during 2010 and 2020. Meanwhile, the underlying mechanism among the urban construction land expansion, population flow and land utilization efficiency with different demographic migration pattern is defined by Kaya identity and further quantitatively deconstructed by the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI). Regraded with the multi-level evaluation of human-land interactions, the prefectural-level analysis reveals significant reduction in both internal difference and absolute value of per capita urban construction land area, and the growth rate of urban population is 2.24 times faster than that of the urban construction land. At the county-level, the proportion of balanced and intensive county-level units increase by 15.38% and 38.46% respectively. The proportion of the county-level units under coordinated status reaches up to 92.31%. At the township-level, the proportion of intensive township-level units increases by 16.84% and the proportion of the township-level units under coordinated status is up to 64.74%. Furthermore, analysis of the multidimensional combination characteristics of urban human-land interaction is performed with six combination types at the county-level and four combination types at the township-level, which are useful for managers to develop categorized and refined urban development guidance. The driving mechanisms demonstrated that 47% of the townships with net population inflow and 41% of the townships with net population outflow are mainly influenced by the increase of permanent resident population, while the deterioration degree of land utilization efficiency in the former is significantly lower than that in the latter. This result implies that the townships in the core urban areas present the better performance in the improvement of land utilization efficiency than those in the western areas of Hangzhou. The exploration will provide references for coordinating the rational allocation of land resources and optimizing the regional human-land relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Construct a spatial flow model of ecosystem services. • The spatiotemporal differentiation was analyzed by GTWR model. • Spatial pattern optimization based on Bayesian belief network. • Provides a reference for spatial flow pattern at the scale of urban agglomeration. Exploring the spatial flow pattern of ecosystem services and clarifying the transmission path between the supply area and the demand area will help to formulate more scientific and reasonable ecological protection policies. This paper takes the rapid urbanization area representing the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration as an example. Using Invest model to quantitative the assessment of the supply and demand of carbon sequestration services and water ecosystem services from 2000 to 2020, a spatial flow model of ecosystem services is constructed to clarify the spatial flow of regional ecosystem services pattern. In addition, the Geo-detector model is used to explore the driving factors of the supply and demand relationship of ecosystem services, and the spatiotemporal geographic weighted regression model is further used to analyze the temporal and spatial differentiation of the impact degree. Finally, based on the Bayesian belief network, the optimal state factor configuration is selected to optimize the spatial pattern, and the corresponding optimization strategy is given. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The supply of carbon sequestration services in the Pearl River Delta decreased gradually during 2000–2020, while the demand increased gradually. The supply of water ecosystem services increased first and then decreased, while the demand showed a downward trend. (2) In terms of spatial heterogeneity of supply and demand matching, the main driving factors of carbon sequestration services included night light brightness value, temperature and vegetation index; The main driving factors of water ecosystem services include night light brightness value, land use type and vegetation index. (3) In terms of optimal areas for supply and demand matching, carbon sequestration services were mainly distributed in Zhaoqing, Huizhou and Jiangmen; The optimal matching areas of water ecosystem service supply and demand were mainly distributed in Zhaoqing, Guangzhou, Huizhou and other cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The trends of surface runoff and flood area changes were different. • Rainfall change is the dominant driver compared with land use change. • There are coupled effects from rainfall and land use changes on both surface runoff and flood area. • The easily flooded areas would experience negative coupled effects under future rainfall and land use conditions. • The areas with inadequate drainage and low elevation variation would be of high probability to suffer flooding issues. Future rainfall and land use are two important factors for flood management since they both directly and indirectly affect the functionality and performance of urban stormwater drainage infrastructures. Although some studies have already examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use conditions, they have not concluded how such effects on both surface runoff and flood areas would change with regional surface elevation variation and infrastructure conditions. This paper analyzed the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use on urban drainage systems in terms of surface runoff quantity and flood area changes using EPA SWMM. Future downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation projections for 2040–2060 and 2080–2099 from "Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections" Archive and future land use for 2050 s and 2090 s from EPA ICLUS project were used for the City of Tampa in Florida (USA). It was shown that potential runoff volume and flood area changes ranged from −40% to 160%, and −40% to 400% due to rainfall change, while potential changes induced by land use change ranged from 0% to 3.5%, and 0% to 18% respectively. Additionally, this study examined the coupled effects of future rainfall and land use changes on flood area variations, considering the capacity of drainage infrastructure and elevation variation of study site. Results showed that flood area variations are not solely influenced by runoff quantity changes due to the two external drivers, but also by other factors. Specifically, in low-relief areas with inadequate drainage infrastructure and less elevation variation, these two drivers have no additive effects on the percentage of flood area changes. In contrast, in areas with adequate drainage infrastructure and greater surface elevation variation, there are additive effects from rainfall and land use changes on flood area expansions. These findings have important implications for stakeholders involved in city planning and flooding control, particularly for urban areas facing future precipitation and urbanization challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decline in farmland birds observed throughout Europe during recent decades has attracted much attention. Agricultural intensification or land abandonment are commonly forwarded as key drivers. Several countries have established agri-environmental schemes (AES) to counter these negative trends among farmland birds. This paper reports a study of the relationship between land use and bird species in the agricultural landscape of Norway. The main objective was to investigate the effect of spatial heterogeneity and diversity of land use on total richness and abundance of farmland birds at a national level. Monitoring the distribution and abundance of birds is part of the Norwegian monitoring programme for agricultural landscapes. The monitoring programme is based on mapping of 1 × 1 km squares distributed across the entire agricultural landscape. Within these squares permanent observation points are established for bird monitoring. Detailed interpretation of aerial photographs provides the land classification. We tested the relationship between landscape metrics at different levels of land type detail and species richness and abundance of farmland and non-farmland birds. There was a positive relationship between species richness and abundance of farmland birds and agricultural area. For non-farmland birds the relationship was negative. Spatial heterogeneity of land use was a significant positive factor for both farmland and non-farmland species. High land type diversity was positive for farmland bird richness, but negative for abundance. Non-farmland bird richness was not affected by land type diversity, but abundance had a negative response. The results presented in this paper highlight the importance of a spatial heterogeneous landscape. However, we also found that land type diversity could negatively affect the abundance of both farmland and non-farmland birds. Our findings suggest a need for different management approaches depending on whether the aim is increased species richness or abundance. Achieving both aims with the same means might be difficult. We thus suggest a need for land use analyses before proper management strategies can be implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationships between land consumption and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) for a panel of 20 Italian regions over the period 1980–2010. As proxy of land consumption, it uses the supply of new housing, being residential construction the main cause of soil sealing. To test this hypothesis it runs a panel data regression model. In the considered period, results show the existence of an inverted EKC whereas, on a longer period, a N-shaped curve may be inferred. Contrary to the EKC hypothesis, both fixed effect and random effect model estimates show that higher income does not induce greater environmental awareness or, in different words, that the income elasticity hypothesis holds for housing demand rather (or more) than for environment. According to these results, considering the specificity of the resource under consideration, the paper claims for a shift from market to public policy. A tighter urban planning and a higher “environmental” property taxation could be efficient strategies to combat land consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• ESV assessment model was improved. • The spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and ESV in Hubei Province are assessed from 2000 to 2020. • The overall situation of ESV tends to improve. • The CCD between ESV and land use intensity decreases and then increases. • Policy implications for maintaining ESV were proposed. Rapid urbanization has exacerbated land use transformation, which in turn has affected ecosystem service value (ESV). Clarifying the spatial association between land use change (LUC) and ESV is of relevance to the development of policies for sustainable land development and ecosystem service (ES) management. In this paper, taking Hubei Province as an example, the biomass coefficient, resource scarcity coefficient and socioeconomic adjustment coefficient are introduced to improve the ESV assessment model, and then the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and ESV from 2000 to 2020 are analyzed. Furthermore, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) between land use intensity and ESV was explored through a CCD model. The results show that (1) land use in Hubei Province changed significantly from 2000 to 2020, mainly in cropland and built-up land. (2) The change in ESV showed a fluctuating upward trend, with an increase of 71.30%, and the spatial differences generally decreased, showing a spatial pattern of "low in the center and high in the surroundings". (3) All individual ESVs first decreased and then increased, with regulating services and supporting services contributing more to ESV and hydrological regulation, maintenance of biodiversity and soil conservation being the top three ecosystem functions with high service value. (4) The CCD between ESV and land use intensity in Hubei Province and its cities (prefecture and forest area) decreased and then increased, being at the lowest and highest values in 2005 and 2020, respectively. This paper revealed the spatiotemporal evolution process of LUC and ESV in Hubei Province and their coupling coordinated relationship, which can provide effective guidance for the formulation of interzonal ES maintenance policies to reconcile the conflicts between land use and ecosystem management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The equivalent coefficient is revised according to ability and willingness to pay. • The Best-worst method is used to determine the weight of the allocated indicators. • A 10 km buffer calculation strip is established in the compensated payment area. • The overflow of hydrological adjusting is greater than that of erosion prevention. • Ecological compensation in 2010–2020 is higher than that in 2000–2010. Coordinated governance and horizontal ecological compensation are important ways to realize ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River basin. Taking the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River as the research object, this paper analyses the compensation relationship and amount of cities along the line in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and Shandong provinces. Firstly, the spillover value of regulation of water flows and erosion prevention of 32 counties along the Yellow River in Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces were calculated during 2000–2010 and 2010–2020 from the perspective of land use/cover change (LUCC). Secondly, the compensation accounting index system was established based on the classification of ecological services given the beneficiaries' individual preferences, and each indicator's weights were determined based on the Best-worst method. Finally, setting the water ecological service value of the 10 km buffer zone on both sides of the Yellow River as the accounting scope, this paper calculated the amount of ecological compensation paid by 16 cities in Shandong and Henan provinces. The results show that: (1) The spillover value of Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces in 2010–2020 is greater than that in 2000–2010, and the values of erosion prevention in both stages are lower than that of regulation of water flows; (2) From the perspective of providers, the highest is 3.68e + 08 yuan in Lvliang from 2000 to 2010, while the highest is 3.60e + 09 yuan in Yulin from 2010 to 2020; (3) From the perspective of beneficiaries, Zhengzhou has the highest amount of compensation in Henan province, which is 2.28e + 08 yuan in 2000–2010 and 9.41e + 08 yuan in 2010–2020 respectively. In Shandong province, Heze pays the highest value of 1.27e + 08 yuan from 2000 to 2010, and Jinan pays the highest value of 9.56e + 08 yuan from 2010 to 2020. The ecological compensation scheme obtained in this paper is more sustainable than the vertical compensation and expands the scope of the existing ecological compensation standards, which can effectively stimulate the enthusiasm for ecological protection, and reduce the financial pressure on the central government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Surface water quality has weak relationships with spatial configuration metrics. • Sub-watershed is better for land use proportions to explain surface water quality. • 500 m buffer is better for configuration metrics to explain adjacent water quality. • The land use-water quality relationships vary over space. • Poorer water quality leads to less significant land use-water quality correlations. Abstract Characterizing surface water quality is important for water resources management and protection. Numerous studies have addressed the fact that water quality is often impacted by land use, but the relationship between the two remains obscure. This paper explores the spatial dynamics of the relationship between land use and surface water quality and offers new insights into water pollution control practices. A self-organizing map (SOM) method and Pearson correlation testing were adopted to evaluate the associations between land use and surface water quality in Zhejiang Province, China. Selected water quality indicators included: dissolved oxygen (DO), permanganate index (COD Mn), total phosphorus (TP), and ammonia nitrogen (NH 3 –N). All the sampling sites were classified into four groups (Group A, B, C, and D) according to water quality using the SOM approach. Correlations between 16 land use parameters and the four water quality indicators were calculated at both the sub-watershed and 500 m buffer zone scales. The results showed that surface water quality was closely related to percent land use type, but was weakly related to spatial pattern (i.e., configuration) metrics. For percent land use type, the sub-watershed scale appeared to be more important than the 500 m buffer scale when explaining water quality variability. For landscape pattern parameters, buffer zone was superior to the sub-watershed for interpreting adjacent water quality. The correlation analysis for SOM clustered groups showed that land use-water quality relationships varied over space, suggesting that poorer water conditions had less significant correlations. The findings and the method used in this study can help improve water management as well as land use planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Structural changes in peri-urban cultivated land can indicate the progress of PUA. • Peri-urban cultivated land changes in a black soil region of China were studied. • Non-staple food production has shifted to grain production in the peri-urban area. • Changes in peri-urban cultivated land are overshadowed by rapid urbanization. • The studied peri-urban landscape may not be able to support sustainable PUA. Abstract Structural change in peri-urban cultivated land is an effective indicator of variations in the human-land relationship and can be used to evaluate the development of peri-urban agriculture (PUA) under the pressure of rapid urbanization. However, urbanization-occupation and internal conversion, two of the primary changes in peri-urban cultivated land, have rarely been comparatively studied, especially not in an area characterized by uniform and persistent agricultural structure. Therefore, the present paper selected Changchun City in the black soil region of northeast China as a representative case, and performed land use change and spatial cluster analyses to measure changes in rainfed land, paddy land, irrigated land and orchards in the peri-urban area throughout a period of rapid urbanization (1996–2015). The results indicate that irrigated land and orchards were mainly distributed within urban-adjacent areas, and paradoxically showed an evident decrease in quantity across time. The urbanization-occupied cultivated lands revealed an imbalance in the loss and gain of peri-urban cultivated land following rapid urbanization that favors grain production. Meanwhile, the results concerning internal conversion indicate a relatively strong conversion from non-staple food production to grain production. The cultivated lands converted for grain production in the peri-urban area were mostly located at the urban fringe and positively associated with the urbanization-occupied cultivated lands. However, the cultivated lands that were converted for the production of non-staple food were relatively small-scale, sparsely distributed and located far from the central urban area. Nevertheless, both types of internal conversion were gradually overshadowed by the ever-increasing urbanization. Our study revealed an impaired local supply of non-staple food and an overall reduction in the diversified use of peri-urban cultivated lands in the black soil region. These findings suggest that the current structure of peri-urban cultivated land in the black soil region of northeast China may well be insufficient for supporting sustainable PUA development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Impact of land use change on functional connectivity of multi-species was studied. • Key connecting nodes were prioritized according to their stepping-stone effects. • The population change based urban expansion is ideal to maintain connectivity. • Long dispersers may not have larger functional connectivity degree than short ones. Abstract As a primary concern in biodiversity conservation, understanding the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on functional connectivity has the overarching significance. Yet, LUCC simulation models used in previous studies are insufficient to tackle the complex and non-linear interactions of land-use components, and thus may not be able to provide the accurate impact assessments. This paper aimed to fill this gap and to find a solution that avoids significant connectivity loss in the future LUCC. The artificial neural network (ANN) based cellular automata (CA) and graph theory were combined, to explore potential changes in functional connectivity under alternative urban expansion scenarios. Results show that, both urban land and forested land will increase in all of future scenarios; however, functional connectivity of each species will still decrease except under a population change based scenario. The increase in forested land and the contrary connectivity loss proved the strong barrier effect caused by urban expansion. The impacts vary by species: small forest mammals might benefit more from the gain in the stepping-stone-like patches, while the intra-patch connectivity loss is the primary threat for large terrestrial mammals. Finally, we identified the key connecting patches (i.e., stepping-stones) and suggested that those patches should be prioritized for protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Detailed land-use measures with 1 m accuracy explain the urban heat island (UHI). • Building shades have negative effects on surface temperatures. • Spatial regressions account for spatial autocorrelations and spillovers. • Nonlinear and interaction effects of grass, trees and water are modeled. • The results can be used in urban planning to mitigate the UHI at fine scales. Abstract This paper explores the urban land-use determinants of the urban heat island (UHI) in Beijing's Olympic Area, using different statistical models, land surface temperatures (LST) derived from Landsat 8 remote sensing, and land-use data derived from 1-m high-resolution imagery. Data are captured over grids of different sizes. Spatial regressions are necessary to capture neighboring effects, particularly when the grid unit is small. Grass, trees, water bodies, and shades have all significant and negative effects on LST, whereas buildings, roads and other impervious surfaces have all significant and positive effects. The results also point to significant nonlinear and interaction effects of grass, trees and water, particularly when the grid cell size is small (60 m-90 m). Trees are found to be the most important predictor of LST. When the grids are smaller than 180 m, the indirect impacts are larger than the direct ones, whereas, the opposite takes place for larger grids. Because of their strong performance (R2 ranging from 0.839 to 0.970), the models can be used for predicting the impacts of land-use changes on the UHI and as tools for urban planning. Finally, extensive uncertainty and sensitivity analyses show that the models are very reliable in terms of both input data accuracy and estimated coefficients precision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Highlights • An analysis of soil natural capital vulnerability at a regional scale is presented. • Land cover trajectories determine the inherent and dynamic properties of the soil. • Inherent and dynamic properties of soil natural capital determine its vulnerability. • Replication in other basins with similar soil and climate conditions are required. Abstract In recent decades, the literature on ecosystem services has pointed to the need to quantify and characterise Soil Natural Capital (SNC) under different types of land use and cover. This points to the need of understanding the SNC processes which define the provision of ecosystem services, as well as their changes through anthropogenic time. Tropical regions are subjected to a high rate of land use transformation which may change the properties of the soil, and consequently the potential provision of ecosystem services. This paper presents a proposal for the quantification and characterization of SNC through an index of vulnerability to changes in land cover vegetation and their influence on the provision of ecosystem services for the prevention of soil erosion in tropical soils. The proposed vulnerability index considers aspects of the SNC such as the changes produced in the dynamic properties of different soil types under different types of land-use. The proposed analysis was implemented in a basin measuring 1.280 km2 situated in the department of Antioquia (Colombia) in humid tropical conditions, where 93% of the soil presents andic properties. Understanding the consequences of the land cover changes for the provision of ecosystem services, as well as how to obtain the spatial representation of the vulnerability current from SNC, allow the identification of areas in which the provision of ecosystem services is at risk inasmuch as the definition of land use policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Old maps are a fundamental source for land-use reconstruction frequently used in biodiversity conservation and environmental management. In particular, cadastral maps as one type of old maps, depict both land tenure (discrete category) and land-use (continuous category); thus resulting in uncertainties in determination of individual parcels and their use. These uncertainties pose fundamental questions that are addressed in this paper: (i) to what extent land-use determined the delimitation of parcels?; (ii) how significant did the contrast between two land-use classes have to be to in order to delineate a new boundary? Agroforestry land-use classes were chosen as an example to demonstrate the approaches in the delimitation of parcels among different land-use combinations. We used Franciscan Cadastre, created in the mid-19th century under the Habsburg Monarchy (Central Europe), which depicts up to 10 agroforestry classes, to analyse factors that could influence delimitation of borders between patches (parcels) in old cadastral maps. The study area was located in the rural landscape of N Czechia, where approximately 10% of the agroforestry land area was used. We based our analysis on a detailed database of parcels and their land use type and property information. The novel approach to patch contrast indicator for old map analyses is introduced. The approach is based on statistical testing of the differences between parcel boundaries, separating similar/different owner, similar/different land-use and considering the length of the boundaries. Total number of identified parcels for all districts was 4108. Half of the boundaries length and 60% of boundaries count separated land of different owners. The rest of them separated land of one owner with different owner or with distinct parcels geometry. Our results indicate variable contrast between pairs of neighbouring land use categories. In particular, the contrast between pastures, wood-pastures and forests proved to be very low. Various factors, including land ownership, land-use, as well as landscape patch geometry and configuration were important to delineate a single parcel. We have concluded that these factors have important implications on inaccuracies and uncertainties of land use reconstructions based on old cadastral maps and used as historical baselines for current considerations on land change and environmental management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanization alters the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. The loss of ecosystem services is particularly challenging in rapid urbanization areas where economic development needs to consume substantial natural resources. The quantitative and spatial optimization of land use provides an effective tool for rationally allocating land use structure and pattern to ensure the provision of expected ecosystem services. In this paper, we combine the Multi-Objective Programming and the Dyna-CLUE model to project land use changes in 2030 for Wuhan city under three scenarios, i.e., Business As Usual (BAU), Rapid Economic Development (RED), and Ecological Land Protection (ELP). The coupled model that integrates “top-down” and “bottom-up” processes is capable of obtaining the optimized land use patterns under different scenarios and examining the potential impacts of land use changes on ecosystem services in a spatially explicit way. We find that built-up land will continue its remarkable growth during 2015-2030 under the BAU scenario (grows by 96%) at the expense of ecological lands (decreases by 18%). Meanwhile, the predicted losses of ecological lands are 11% and 6% under the RED and ELP scenarios, respectively. Projected land use changes result in varying magnitudes of declines in ecosystem service values for BAU (11%), RED (6%) and ELP (2%) scenarios from 2015 to 2030. The ELP scenario, which incorporates ecological protection policies and spatial restrictions, plays a positive role in altering land use trends and mitigating ecosystem degradation. Finally, we establish an ecosystem service value change matrix to explain how interactions between land use types give rise to trade-offs among multiple ecosystem services. We find that conversions between ecological land use types can trigger trade-offs among ecosystem services, but the conversion from ecological lands towards urban land leads to a net loss of all individual ecosystem services. By linking land and ecological systems, the coupled modeling framework in this study can be useful for obtaining optimal ecosystem-based land use allocation strategies and provide scientific support for sustainable land use management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Approximately 17% of agricultural lands in the western plain of Taiwan were converted to other uses during 1971–2006 due to rapidly industrial and urban development and high population density. Previous studies on the loss of farmland due to urbanization have focused on changes in the agricultural landscape such as fragmentation and irregular shape of farmlands. The shrinkage and fragmentation of agricultural land due to urbanization not only reduces food production but also results in the decrease and degradation of other agro-ecosystem services. Emergy synthesis has been used to assess land use changes in agricultural lands. However, the relationship between farmland fragmentation and the energy flows in agricultural systems has not been studied. This paper investigates empirically how ecological energetic flows of agricultural land were affected by landscape change in the western coastal plain of Taiwan by using emergy synthesis to assess the changes in ecological energetic flows of agricultural systems in each township from 1971 to 2006. Landscape metrics were also chosen to analyze the agricultural landscape change in each township. These metrics were then correlated with the results of emergy synthesis to study the relationship between farmland fragmentation and energy flows in the agricultural system. The results show that the fragmentation of farmlands tends to intensify the inflows of goods and services from the human economic system for farmland operations. For the counties closer to metropolitan areas, maintaining larger farm sizes and preventing farmland fragmentation decreases the proportion of resource inflows from the economic system and mitigates environmental loading in agricultural systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding human and climate-induced vegetation changes could benefit regional ecological management. In this paper, a framework was established to quantify the relative contribution rates of human and climate factors to vegetation changes in Chongqing, China, from 2000 to 2015. MODIS NDVI time series data were collected, and land use data were produced using Landsat TM/OLI images. A combined analysis of land use and vegetation changes was conducted, and the residual trends method (RESTREND) was explored in the framework. The results showed that Chongqing experienced a significant vegetation increase from 2000 to 2015. The relative contribution rates of human activities and climate to the vegetation changes were 90.96% and 9.04%, respectively. These results indicate that human activities had a dominant role in vegetation restoration in Chongqing in 2000–2015. Throughout the study period, extensive land use changes occurred in Chongqing. During the study period, persistent forested land, farmland-forested land (a land use conversion type), persistent farmland, and grassland-forested land were the four most important land use (changed and unchanged) types attributed to the growing season NDVI (GSN) increases in Chongqing from 2000 to 2015. The contributions of these four land use types were 45.03%, 21.19%, 16.79% and 12.60%, respectively. The farmland-forested land was characterized as the most effective land use conversion type for vegetation restoration. The proposed framework allows for human and climate-induced vegetation changes to be quantitatively distinguished at the regional scale and provides the contribution rates of each changed and unchanged land use type. The framework is expected to be useful for regional ecological management and research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the non-stationarity and autocorrelation (with a Moran’s I index score of 0.75) of the MODIS-retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) of the Wuhan agglomeration (WHA) in Central China, using geographically weighted regression (GWR) to identify the spatial relationships between AOD and its impact factors. In addition to the socio-economic factors, i.e., GDP and population, vegetation cover, elevation, land-use density and landscape metrics are also considered. Faced with the rapid process of urbanization and the impact of land-use change on AOD, which has been confirmed in previous studies, we propose an AOD prediction method, combining a land-use change simulation model, a cellular automata and Markov chain (CA-Markov) model, and spatial relationships built by GWR to represent the spatial distribution of AOD in 2030. The results suggest that the GWR model is able to address the spatially varying relationships, with an R-squared value, corrected Akaike’s information criterion (AICc), and standard residual better than those of the ordinary least squares (OLS) model. Land-use simulation, with an accuracy of 89.76%, indicates that an increase in the built-up area and a decrease in the forest area will be the major trends of land-use change and will lead to increased AOD. The AOD simulation results indicate that the most developed areas, i.e., the cities of Wuhan and Huangshi, will be the AOD increase hot spots in the WHA. This study provides an alternative method to identify the varying spatial relationships between AOD and its impact factors. A spatial prediction method for AOD is developed from the perspective of land-use change, which will help land-use planners in decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated assessment of ecosystem services involves the recognition of value pluralism and the inclusion of the different components of ecosystem services, ranging from supply to social demand and interest. Supply refers to the capacity of ecosystems to provide services, while demand refers to the allocation of money or willingness to obtain a particular service and interest to the importance assigned to services. Yet, a comprehensive assessment of ecosystem services which integrates these three components is still unexplored. This paper proposes a methodological approach to examine (mis)matches, i.e. differences or similarities in quality or quantity, when analysing the supply, demand and interest components of ecosystem services. We assessed twelve ecosystem services in four different units socioeconomically and environmentally similar of the social-ecological system of the Urdaibai Biosphere Reserve in Northern Spain. Results showed that the different ecosystem services components provide divergent but complementary information regarding their value. We also found that the information obtained is consistent across different spatial units with similar socio-economic characteristics, suggesting that the mismatch patterns among ecosystem services components are more related to the set of ecosystem services assessed than the socio-economic characteristics and land uses of the area of study. Our findings strengthen arguments of former calls for integration of the biophysical, monetary and socio-cultural values addressed by the supply, demand and interest components of ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Land Use Suitability (LUS) concept informs decision-making by providing stakeholders with integrated information about the economic, environmental, social and cultural consequences of land use choices. This paper addresses an application of the LUS concept: evaluating the suitability of land for sustained productivity subject to environmental constraints, as defined by water quality objectives. We refer to this application of the LUS concept as ‘Productivity within Environmental Constraints’ (PEC). A PEC assessment uses three indicators to evaluate land-water systems: 1) productive potential, describing the inherent productive and economic potential of land parcel s ; 2) relative contribution, describing the potential for a land parcel to contribute contaminants (relative to other land parcels) to downstream receiving environments; and 3) pressure, describing the contaminant load delivered to a receiving environment compared to the load that ensures that environmental objectives are met. The three indicators can be expressed categorically, mapped at catchment to national scales, and used to support strategic land assessments and plan land development and investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Carbon storage are predicted with land use simulated by Markov-PLUS and carbon density. • Carbon storage caused by land use/cover change are significantly different in three scenarios. • Ecological policies are important in increasing carbon storage and mitigating carbon loss. Land use/cover change (LUCC) is the primary source of carbon storage changes in the ecosystem. Up to now, there are few studies about the impacts and driving mechanisms of LUCC for carbon storage in the ecosystem at spatial–temporal scales. Characterizing LUCC of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and its role in carbon storage are very important and necessary to elucidate the results of human activities on ecosystems. The policies to address potential future risks should be formulated in advance to achieve effective development. In the paper, we regarded the YRB as the study area, analyzed its LUCC during 2000 to 2020, predicted land use patterns in 2040 under the scenarios of natural trend (NT), ecological degradation (ED), and ecological restoration (ER) using Markov model with Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and quantified carbon storage in the ecosystems over the last 20 years and under future scenarios according to Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The outcome was as follows: (1) During 2000 to 2040, LUCC in the YRB changed markedly, with cropland being transformed into woodland, grassland and built-up land; (2) During 2000 to 2040, carbon storage in the YRB was on an upward trend with a mean annual increase of 1.93×106Mg C, and woodland was the answer to increasing carbon storage, while unused land could induce carbon storage to decrease; (3) Carbon storage in the YRB varied to different degrees under three scenarios, but under the premise of not causing large-scale damage, the conversion of built-up land was an important means of improving carbon storage, greatly enhancing the carbon sequestration efficiency and capacity of the YRB. In conclusion, the future environmental management of the YRB should be continuously oriented to ecological protection and low-carbon development, so that carbon storage in the basin will be able to develop in a benign direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and ESV in China National Nature Reserve—Shennongjia Forest Region are assessed from the perspective of "past-present-future" • Vulnerability analysis of ecosystem services was carried out. • ESV and vulnerability under the ecological protection scenario are improved, compared with the natural development scenario. • The ecological protection policy of Shennongjia Forest Region was proposed. Accurate assessment of the ecosystem service value (ESV) of China National Nature Reserves is of great significance to the protection of regional ecological environment. In this paper, taking Shennongjia Forest Region as an example, based on the land use data of three phases in 2000, 2010 and 2020, we quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the regional ESV, and use the FLUS model to simulate the land use layouts and the spatial distribution characteristics of the ESV under the two scenarios in 2035, and carry out the vulnerability analysis of the regional ecosystem services.. The conclusions are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the overall ESV in Shennongjia Forest Region decreased by 15.48 million yuan, and support services and regulation services always played a decisive role in the overall ESV. (2) The area of cultivated land and grassland continued to shrink from 2000 to 2020, resulting in the reduction of ESV by 2.6 million yuan and 3.67 million yuan respectively. The contribution of woodland to the ESV was the largest, accounting for more than 95% in the three periods. (3) Under the natural development scenario, cultivated land, woodland and grassland continue to decline. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of cultivated land decreases even more, but the area of woodland and grassland increases, and the layouts of construction land are more compact. The potential impact (PI) indexes of the region in 2000–2010 and 2010–2020 were negative, while that in 2020-2035Q1 is −2.01, which further worsens the vulnerability of ecosystem services. However, the PI index in 2020-2035Q2 turns positive, which is 2.29, indicating that the goal of the regional government to protect the ecological space under this scenario is basically realized. The research results can provide some reference for Shennongjia Forest Region and other National Nature Reserves to give consideration to both ecological environment protection and high-quality development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]