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• The simulation results of land use under different models are compared. • A comprehensive restricted area was used as the limiting factor. • In the accuracy evaluation, the FoM value is significantly different. • The simulation accuracy of PLUS model is higher than other models. The simulation and future prediction of spatial and temporal land use and land cover change (LUCC) have long been the focus (and challenge) of research on land use change and sustainable development. However, the existing research lacks empirical comparisons among different simulation models under the same conditions in the same region; hence, the most accurate simulation results cannot be obtained through the optimal model. In this paper, taking the Fuxian Lake basin as an example, the CA-Markov, FLUS, and PLUS models are adopted to explore the optimal model for simulating LUCC in this basin by integrating restricted areas of LUCC. This study shows the following. (1) The simulation results are more accurate under the joint restrictions of open water, prohibited development zones and ecological protection red lines than under a single restriction. (2) All three models can simulate the LUCC in the Fuxian Lake basin. Among these models, the PLUS model has the highest simulation accuracy in simulating LUCC at the basin scale and offers the best match of land types in terms of their quantity and spatial distribution. (3) The PLUS model can accurately predict the changes of LULC in the Fuxian Lake basin. The results of this study should help decision makers evaluate land use development patterns and provide a reference for the formulation of regional sustainable development policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Past LULC changes can be divided into two stages: (I) accelerated evolution stage (1980–2010), and (II) stable evolution stage (2010–2020). • Carbon storage presented a high-low-high distribution pattern from north to south. • Areas with a rapid urbanization process exhibited more obvious changes in carbon storage dynamics. • Rapid LULC dynamics have reduced the carbon sequestration capacity of the ecosystem. • The implementation of ecological conservation could increase the carbon fixation in ecosystems. Land use/land cover (LULC) change has greatly altered ecosystem carbon storage capacity and can eventually profoundly impact global climate change. Characterizing the LULC change and its impact on ecosystem carbon storage in coastal areas is greatly significant to comprehensively understanding the influences of human activities on ecosystems. Based on LULC data, this paper combined CA-Markov and InVEST models to evaluate the past, present, and future LULC change and its impact on ecosystem carbon storage in coastal areas of China. The results showed that past LULC change in coastal areas can be divided into two stages: (I) accelerated evolution stage (1980–2010), and (II) stable evolution stage (2010–2020). Changes in LULC types have led to a downward trend in ecosystem carbon storage, with a cumulative loss of 0.39 Pg and 0.15 Pg during the two stages, respectively. Spatially, carbon storage presented a high-low-high spatial distribution pattern from north to south. Temporally, areas with a rapid urbanization process exhibited more obvious changes in carbon storage dynamics. Compared with the natural change scenario, the areas with LULC types conversion under the ecological conservation scenario in 2050 will be lower due to the limitation of ecological protection, and it caused carbon storage reduction will slow down. Rapid LULC dynamics, that a large area of farmland, unused land and, water have been converted into construction land, reduced the carbon sequestration capacity of the ecosystem. This study will provide reliable references and precise data support for coastal management and decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use/land cover (LULC) change has greatly altered ecosystem carbon storage capacity and can eventually profoundly impact global climate change. Characterizing the LULC change and its impact on ecosystem carbon storage in coastal areas is greatly significant to comprehensively understanding the influences of human activities on ecosystems. Based on LULC data, this paper combined CA-Markov and InVEST models to evaluate the past, present, and future LULC change and its impact on ecosystem carbon storage in coastal areas of China. The results showed that past LULC change in coastal areas can be divided into two stages: (I) accelerated evolution stage (1980–2010), and (II) stable evolution stage (2010–2020). Changes in LULC types have led to a downward trend in ecosystem carbon storage, with a cumulative loss of 0.39 Pg and 0.15 Pg during the two stages, respectively. Spatially, carbon storage presented a high-low-high spatial distribution pattern from north to south. Temporally, areas with a rapid urbanization process exhibited more obvious changes in carbon storage dynamics. Compared with the natural change scenario, the areas with LULC types conversion under the ecological conservation scenario in 2050 will be lower due to the limitation of ecological protection, and it caused carbon storage reduction will slow down. Rapid LULC dynamics, that a large area of farmland, unused land and, water have been converted into construction land, reduced the carbon sequestration capacity of the ecosystem. This study will provide reliable references and precise data support for coastal management and decision-making.

The simulation and future prediction of spatial and temporal land use and land cover change (LUCC) have long been the focus (and challenge) of research on land use change and sustainable development. However, the existing research lacks empirical comparisons among different simulation models under the same conditions in the same region; hence, the most accurate simulation results cannot be obtained through the optimal model. In this paper, taking the Fuxian Lake basin as an example, the CA-Markov, FLUS, and PLUS models are adopted to explore the optimal model for simulating LUCC in this basin by integrating restricted areas of LUCC. This study shows the following. (1) The simulation results are more accurate under the joint restrictions of open water, prohibited development zones and ecological protection red lines than under a single restriction. (2) All three models can simulate the LUCC in the Fuxian Lake basin. Among these models, the PLUS model has the highest simulation accuracy in simulating LUCC at the basin scale and offers the best match of land types in terms of their quantity and spatial distribution. (3) The PLUS model can accurately predict the changes of LULC in the Fuxian Lake basin. The results of this study should help decision makers evaluate land use development patterns and provide a reference for the formulation of regional sustainable development policies.

[Display omitted] • Grassland degradation is the main reason for the decline in carbon storage. • The carbon storage of farmland has increased significantly. • The risk of carbon storage reduction in the future is still high. The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems is closely related to global climate change. Therefore, assessing the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage is instructive to reduce global carbon emissions. Taking an arid region in northwest China as an example, this paper analyzed the land-use changes in arid region from 1980 to 2015. It used the CA-Markov model to predict the land-use pattern from 2020 to 2050, the carbon storage and sequestration module in Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (Invest) mode to assess and predict ecosystem carbon storage over the past 35 years and in the next 30 years and discusses the impact of land-use changes on the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. The results showed that: (1) The high-value areas of carbon storage in arid region were primarily concentrated in grassland, forests and farmland, and the low-value areas of carbon storage were mainly in desert areas. (2) The carbon storage in arid region showed a downward trend. From 1980 to 2015, the carbon reserves of terrestrial ecosystems in arid region decreased by 90.95 Tg, and the net loss of carbon reserves from 2020 to 2050 was 14.72 Tg. Grassland degradation was the main reason for the reduction of carbon storage in arid region. (3) The carbon storage of farmland had increased significantly, but the expansion of farmland dominated by high carbon density grassland, wetland and forest, had reduced the overall carbon storage of the arid region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems is closely related to global climate change. Therefore, assessing the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage is instructive to reduce global carbon emissions. Taking an arid region in northwest China as an example, this paper analyzed the land-use changes in arid region from 1980 to 2015. It used the CA-Markov model to predict the land-use pattern from 2020 to 2050, the carbon storage and sequestration module in Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (Invest) mode to assess and predict ecosystem carbon storage over the past 35 years and in the next 30 years and discusses the impact of land-use changes on the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. The results showed that: (1) The high-value areas of carbon storage in arid region were primarily concentrated in grassland, forests and farmland, and the low-value areas of carbon storage were mainly in desert areas. (2) The carbon storage in arid region showed a downward trend. From 1980 to 2015, the carbon reserves of terrestrial ecosystems in arid region decreased by 90.95 Tg, and the net loss of carbon reserves from 2020 to 2050 was 14.72 Tg. Grassland degradation was the main reason for the reduction of carbon storage in arid region. (3) The carbon storage of farmland had increased significantly, but the expansion of farmland dominated by high carbon density grassland, wetland and forest, had reduced the overall carbon storage of the arid region.