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• The achievement of regional sustainable development is at the core of PLES. • The quantitative identification of land use functions forms the foundation of territory spatial planning and management. • The COAL model provides a reference for determining future PLES development. Analysis of the dynamics of regional production-life-ecological space (PLES) can help to mitigate conflicts between economic development and the natural environment and can also promote sustainable and healthy regional development. However, the delineation and optimal integration of PLES at large scales, and predictions about its future, still lack sufficient scientific basis and reliable quantitative analysis. To fill this gap, this paper therefore chooses the city cluster as a research scale and the Lanzhou-Xining City Cluster (LXCC), an area typical of the "human-nature" conflict in northern China, as a case study. A collaborative optimal allocation of land-use (COAL) model was established to explore the future development of PLES in city clusters. In COAL, a morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) and a minimum cumulative resistance model are used to determine the spatial functional areas of the country in 2020. Then, combined with the future land use simulation model, the PLES of LXCC is predicted in a multi-scenario perspective and differential control strategies are implemented for different land use functions. The results show that: (1) The identification and prioritization of source sites with important functions were the basis for enhancing the multiple functions of the land in the region. The ecological "source" of expansion accounts for 42% of the total area of LXCC, mainly in the mountains, forests, and ecological reserves, while the living "source" of expansion accounts for 58% of the total area of the city, mostly scattered on flat terrain. Based on this, five functional zones have been defined. The ecological protection zone was the largest, mainly in the western part of LXCC, and the agricultural buffer zone was the smallest. (2) The integration of different functional areas into the optimal allocation of land use is the premise of PLES delineation under the COAL framework. After a comparative analysis of multiple scenarios, the result of land use optimization under coordinated the city cluster scenario increased the area of productive land to 177,780.68 km2 and the area of living land to 13,947.33 km2. Based on this, the proportion of LXCC ecological, production, and living space were 77.20%, 18.23%, and 4.57% respectively. The optimized results have been proven to serve to meet the future spatial needs for food security and ecological conservation. The results of this study demonstrate that the COAL framework can help the government to determine the future development of PLES and promote balanced regional development in city clusters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Markov-FLUS and InVEST models can effectively predict the spatiotemporal changes of LULC and carbon storage. • Carbon storage will continue to increase in the future, with the largest increase in the ecological protection scenario (EP). • The implementation of ecological engineering and economic development had obvious promotion effect on carbon storage. There are more than 2,800 counties in China, including 341 in the Loess Plateau region. The county is the basic unit of administrative management and is considered to be the best scale for land use control, environmental planning and policy implementation. Since the 1990 s, socioeconomic development and the implementation of ecological engineering have greatly changed the land use and land cover (LULC) patterns in the Loess Plateau counties, and presumably in the county's carbon. However, accurate assessment of carbon storage and driving factors remains a challenge. This paper selected Qingcheng County, a typical county in the Loess Plateau, and used multi-source data and comprehensive environmental modeling methods to evaluate and analyze the temporal and spatial trends and driving factors of carbon storage in Qingcheng County from 2000 to 2030. The results showed that: (1) the carbon storage in the terrestrial ecosystem increased from 2000 to 2030 in Qingcheng, and it was mainly distributed in grassland and forest, accounting for 49 %–53 % and 36 %–40 % of the total carbon storage, respectively. (2) The implementation of ecological engineering had obvious promotion effect on carbon storage in the terrestrial ecosystem. The precipitation and temperature in the past 20 years had provided favorable climatic conditions for ecological engineering. In addition, carbon storage was also affected by economic development, land input intensity, and population size. These findings provide recommendations for achieving sustainable socioeconomic and ecological development at county-level. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the relationship between LULC and carbon storage caused by natural environment and socioeconomic factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]