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Environmental degradation is reducing the variability of living assemblages at multiple spatial scales, but there is no a priori reason to expect biotic homogenization to occur uniformly across scales. This paper explores the scale-dependent effects of recent perturbations on the biotic variability of lagoonal reefs in Panama and Belize. We used new and previously published core data to compare temporal patterns of species dominance between depth zones. and between geographic locations. After millennia of monotypic dominance, depth zonation emerged for different reasons in the two reef systems, increasing the between-habitat component of beta diversity in both taxonomic and functional terms. The increase in between-habitat diversity caused a decline in geographic-scale variability as the two systems converged on a single, historically novel pattern of depth zonation. Twenty-four reef cores were extracted at water depths above 2 m in Bahía Almirante, a coastal lagoon in northwestern Panama. The cores showed that finger corals of the genus Porites dominated for the last 2000-3000 yr. Porites remained dominant as the shallowest portions of the reefs grew to within 0.25 m of present sea level. At intermediate depths of 5-10 m, however, declining water quality in the Bahía enabled the lettuce coral Agaricia tenuifolia to replace Porites during the last several decades. In Belize, the staghorn coral Acropora cervicornis dominated the rhomboid shoals of the central shelf lagoon for millennia. As the shallowest portions of the rhomboid shoals approached sea level around 500 years ago, Porites spp. replaced Ac. cervicornis in an intrinsically driven successional sequence. At intermediate depths, white-band disease killed Ac. cervicornis in the late 1980s, precipitating a transition to dominance by Ag. tenuifolia. Phase shifts between coral taxa and the emergence of coral zonation in both locations were mediated by the sea urchin Echinometra viridis, which controlled algal growth. Opposite trends in biotic variability at the habitat and geographic levels highlight the complex, scale-dependent nature of the response of coral reefs to intense perturbations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Initial conditions can generate differences in the biotic composition of spatially disjunct communities, but intense, large-scale perturbations have the potential to reduce or eliminate those historical differences. The latter possibility is of particular concern with respect to coral reefs, which have undergone dramatic changes in the last 25-30 years. This paper reports a case in which two reef systems with different biotic histories were recently perturbed to a single, novel state. We compared millennial-scale records of species dominance from reefs in Bahía Al-mirante, a coastal lagoon in northwestern Panama, to previously published records from reefs in the shelf lagoon of Belize. Reef cores extracted from Bahía Almirante at 5-10 m water depth revealed that the Panamanian reefs were persistently dissimilar from the Belizean reefs for at least 2000-3000 years prior to the last several decades. The Panamanian reefs were dominated continuously by branching finger corals, Porites spp. (primarily P. furcata). Shifts from the Porites-dominated state to dominance by other coral species were rare, were restricted to small areas, and lasted for decades to centuries. The Belizean reefs were dominated continuously by the staghorn coral Acropora cervicornis in the same depth range during the same period. Excursions from the Acropora-dominated state were again rare and spatially localized. Populations of Ac. cervicornis in the Belizean lagoon were nearly extirpated by an outbreak of white-band disease in the late 1980s, and changes in water quality were apparently detrimental to branching Porites in Bahía Almirante in recent decades. These large-scale perturbations caused the two reef systems to converge on a third, historically unprecedented state: dominance by the lettuce coral Agaricia tenuifolia. Ag. tenutfolia possesses life-history attributes and environmental tolerances that enabled it to become dominant in both disturbed ecosystems. Although the two phase shifts to Ag. tenuifolia differed in both their general mechanisms and specific causes, they had the effect of eliminating the salient difference in benthic composition between the Panamanian and Belizean reefs. The changes in species composition thus obliterated the influence of several thousand years of reef history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On St. Paul Island, a remnant of the Bering Land Bridge, woolly mammoths persisted until 5,600 yr BP with no known predators or competitors, providing a natural system for studying hypothesized environmental drivers of extinction. These include overheating due to rising temperatures, starvation, and drought. Here, we test these hypotheses using Niche Mapper and LPJ‐GUESS to mechanistically estimate mammoth metabolic rates and dietary and freshwater requirements and, from these, estimate variations in island carrying capacity on St. Paul for the last 17,000 yr. Population carrying capacity may have been several hundred individuals at the time of initial isolation from the mainland. Adult mammoths could have fasted for two to three months, indicating a necessary ability to access snow‐buried forage. During the Holocene, vegetation net primary productivity increased, but shrinking island area overrode increased net primary productivity (NPP), lowering carrying capacity to ~100 individuals. NPP and freshwater availability alternated as critical limiting factors for this island population during the environmental changes of the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Only two or three individuals could have been sustained by the freshwater surplus in crater lakes (up to 18 individuals under the most optimistic parameter sensitivity experiments), suggesting that the St. Paul mammoth population was highly dependent on coastal freshwater sources. The simulations are consistent with the available proxy data, while highlighting the need to retrieve new paleohydrological proxy records from the coastal lagoons to test model predictions. More broadly, these findings reinforce the vulnerability of island megaherbivore populations to resource limitation and extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Holocene decline of Tsuga canadensis (hereafter Tsuga) populations across eastern North America is widely perceived as a synchronous event, driven by pests/pathogens, rapid climate change, or both. Pattern identification and causal attribution are hampered by low stratigraphic density of pollen-sampling and radiometric dates at most sites, and by absence of highly resolved, paired pollen and paleoclimate records from single sediment cores, where chronological order of climatic and vegetational changes can be assessed. We present an intensely sampled (contiguous 1-cm intervals) record of pollen and water table depth (inferred from testate amoebae) from a single core spanning the Tsuga decline at Irwin Smith Bog in Lower Michigan, with high-precision chronology. We also present an intensively sampled pollen record from Tower Lake in Upper Michigan. Both sites show high-magnitude fluctuations in Tsuga pollen percentages during the pre-decline maximum. The terminal decline is dated at both sites ca. 5000 cal yr BP, some 400 years later than estimates from other sites and data compilations. The terminal Tsuga decline was evidently heterochronous across its range. A transient decline ca. 5350 cal yr BP at both sites may correspond to the terminal decline at other sites in eastern North America. At Irwin Smith Bog, the terminal Tsuga decline preceded an abrupt and persistent decline in water table depths by ∼200 years, suggesting the decline was not directly driven by abrupt climate change. The Tsuga decline may best be viewed as comprising at least three phases: a long-duration pre-decline maximum with high-magnitude and high-frequency fluctuations, followed by a terminal decline at individual sites, followed in turn by two millennia of persistently low Tsuga populations. These phases may not be causally linked, and may represent dynamics taking place at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Further progress toward understanding the phenomenon requires an expanded network of high-resolution pollen and paleoclimate chronologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean rear‐edge populations of Betula, located at the southwestern Eurasian margin of the distribution range, represent unique reservoirs of genetic diversity. However, increasing densities of wild ungulates, enhanced dryness, and wildfires threaten their future persistence. A historical perspective on the past responses of these relict populations to changing herbivory, fire occurrence and climatic conditions may contribute to assessing their future responses under comparable scenarios. We have reconstructed vegetation and disturbance (grazing, fire) history in the Cabañeros National Park (central‐southern Spain) using the paleoecological records of two small mires. We particularly focused on the historical range of variation in disturbance regimes, and the dynamics of rear‐edge Betula populations and herbivore densities. Changes in water availability, probably related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and land‐use history have played a crucial role in vegetation shifts. Our data suggest that heathlands (mainly Erica arborea and E. scoparia) and Quercus woodlands dominated during dry phases while Sphagnum bogs and Betula stands expanded during wet periods. Betula populations survived past moderately dry periods but were unable to cope with enhanced land use, particularly increasing livestock raising since ~1,100–900 cal. yr BP (850–1,050 CE), and eventually underwent local extinction. High herbivore densities not only contributed to the Betula demise but also caused the retreat of Sphagnum bogs. Ungulate densities further rose at ~200–100 cal. yr BP (1750–1850 CE) associated with the historically documented intensification of land use around the Ecclesiastical Confiscation. However, herbivory reached truly unprecedented values only during the last decades, following rural depopulation and subsequent promotion of big game hunting. For the first time in temperate and Mediterranean Europe, we have used the abundances of fossil dung fungal spores to assess quantitatively that current high herbivore densities exceed the historical range of variation. In contrast, present fire activity lies within the range of variation of the last millennia, with fires (mainly human‐set) mostly occurring during dry periods. Our paleodata highlight the need of controlling the densities of wild ungulates to preserve ecosystem composition and functioning. We also urge to restore Betula populations in suitable habitats where they mostly disappeared because of excessive human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]