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In recent years, the continuous expansion of Spartina alterniflora (S. alterniflora) has caused serious damage to coastal wetland ecosystem. Mapping the coverage of S. alterniflora by remote sensing and analyzing its growth pattern pose great importance in controlling the expansion and maintaining the biodiversity of coastal wetlands in Guangxi. This study aimed to use harmonic regression to fit time series data of vegetation indices based on Landsat images, and the phenological features were extracted as the input of random forest model to distinguish S. alterniflora in coastal zone of Guangxi from 2009 to 2020. The influence of natural environmental factors on the distribution of S. alterniflora was evaluated by Maxent model, and the potential distribution was analyzed. The results showed that: (1) Based on the time series data of characteristic indices fitted by harmonic regression, the extraction of phenological features of S. alterniflora identification effect exhibited high accuracy (in the result of 2009, Overall Accuracy [OA] = 97.33%, Kappa = 0.95). (2) During 2009–2020, the S. alterniflora in coastal zone of Guangxi kept proliferating and expanding from east to west. The total area of S. alterniflora continued to increase while the growth rate showed a trend that increased first and then decreased. (3) The Maxent model shows good accuracy in simulating the habitat of S. alterniflora, with a potential distribution area of 14,303.39 hm2. The findings will be beneficial to the understanding of dynamic changes of S. alterniflora in coastal zone of Guangxi and provide a scientific reference for other coastal wetland studies on S. alterniflora expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, ecological niche models (ENMs) have been widely used to predict suitable habitats for species. However, for invasive organisms, the prediction accuracy is unclear. In this study, we employed the most widely used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ensemble model (EM) Biomod2 and verified the practical effectiveness of the ENM in predicting the distribution areas of invasive insects based on the true occurrence of Hyphantria cunea in China. The results showed that when only limited data of invasive areas were used, the two ENMs could not effectively predict the distribution of suitable habitats of H. cunea, although the use of global data can greatly improve the prediction accuracy of ENMs. When analyzing the same data, Biomod2's prediction accuracy was significantly better than that of MaxEnt. For long‐term predictions, the area of suitable habitat predicted by the ENMs was much greater than the occurrence area; for short‐term predictions, the accuracy of the predicted area was significantly improved. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for H. cunea in China is 118 × 104 km2, of which 59.32% is moderately or highly suitable habitat. Future climate change could significantly increase the suitable habitat area of H. cunea in China, and the predicted area of suitable habitats in all climate scenarios exceeded 355 × 104 km2, accounting for 36.98% of the total land area in China. This study demonstrates the use of ENMs to study invasive insects and provides a reference for the management of H. cunea in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to enhance in terms of accuracy and predict the modeling of the potential distribution of species, the integration of using principal components of environmental variables as input of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) has been proposed in this study. Principal components selected previously from the principal component analysis results performed in Arc GIS in the environmental variables was used as an input data of MaxEnt instead of raw data to model the potential distribution of red spiny lobster from the year 1997 to 2015 and for three different future scenarios 2020, 2050, and 2070. One set of six original environmental variables pertaining to the years 1997-2015 and one set of four variables for future scenarios were transformed independently into a single multiband raster in Arc GIS in order to select the variables whose eigenvalues explains more than 5% of the total variance with the purpose to use in the modeling prediction in MaxEnt. The years 1997 and 1998 were chosen to compare the accuracy of the model, showing better results using principal components instead of raw data in terms of area under the curve and partial receiver operating characteristic as well as better predictions of suitable areas. Using principal components as input of MaxEnt enhances the prediction of good habitat suitability for red spiny lobster; however, future scenarios suggest an adequate management by researches to elaborate appropriate guidelines for the conservation of the habitat for this valuable specie with face to the climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]