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Seed banks, the collection of viable seeds in the soil, are particularly important determinants of population survival in highly variable environments. Predictions of increased stochasticity in the amount and timing of precipitation in desert environments raise the question of how seed banks of desert species will respond to climate change, and ultimately, whether these species will persist. Here, we present data from our long-term studies of germination requirements and seed bank dynamics in a rare desert gypsophile perennial, Arctomecon californica (Las Vegas bearpoppy). Arctomecon californica is a relatively short-lived plant that recruits from seed in sequences of unusually favorable years. We used germination experiments, an in situ seed bank study, and a 15-year field seed retrieval study to examine factors affecting seed bank persistence. In the germination study, a majority of seeds remained dormant, despite a wide variety of treatments, suggesting that a large proportion of the seed dispersed each year has cue-nonresponsive dormancy. Our in situ seed bank study showed that seed density varied widely between sites, among transects, and among samples within a transect. The patchiness of seeds in the soil highlights the importance of protecting large areas where A . californica populations are known to have existed in the past. The seed retrieval study provided strong evidence that this species has a long-lived seed bank in which only a small fraction of seeds (roughly 5%) become nondormant each year, allowing seed banks of this species to last up to 20 years without a seed production event. Whether this impressive life-history strategy can maintain the species in the face of climate change depends on the future frequency of the well-timed precipitation that allows for the establishment of new cohorts of adult plants., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Published 2023. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

This study of Astragalus holmgreniorum examines its adaptations to the warm desert environment and whether these adaptations will enable it to persist. Its spring ephemeral hemicryptophyte life-history strategy is unusual in warm deserts. We used data from a 22-year demographic study supplemented with reproductive output, seed bank, and germinant survival studies to examine the population dynamics of this species using discrete-time stochastic matrix modeling. The model showed that A . holmgreniorum is likely to persist in the warm desert in spite of high dormant-season mortality. It relies on a stochastically varying environment with high inter-annual variation in precipitation for persistence, but without a long-lived seed bank, environmental stochasticity confers no advantage. Episodic high reproductive output and frequent seedling recruitment along with a persistent seed bank are adaptations that facilitate its survival. These adaptations place its life-history strategy further along the spectrum from "slower" to "faster" relative to other perennial spring ephemerals. The extinction risk for small populations is relatively high even though mean λ s  > 1 because of the high variance in year quality. This risk is also strongly dependent on seed bank starting values, creating a moving window of extinction risk that varies with population size through time. Astragalus holmgreniorum life-history strategy combines the perennial spring ephemeral life form with features more characteristic of desert annuals. These adaptations permit persistence in the warm desert environment. A promising conclusion is that new populations of this endangered species can likely be established through direct seeding., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Granivorous rodent populations in deserts are primarily regulated through precipitation-driven resource pulses rather than pulses associated with mast-seeding, a pattern more common in mesic habitats. We studied heteromyid responses to mast-seeding in the desert shrub blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima), a regionally dominant species in the Mojave-Great Basin Desert transition zone. In a 5-year study at Arches National Park, Utah, USA, we quantified spatiotemporal variation in seed resources in mast and intermast years in blackbrush-dominated and mixed desert vegetation and measured responses of Dipodomys ordii (Ord's kangaroo rat) and Perognathus flavescens (plains pocket mouse). In blackbrush-dominated vegetation, blackbrush seeds comprised >79% of seed production in a mast year, but 0% in the first postmast year. Kangaroo rat abundance in blackbrush-dominated vegetation was highest in the mast year, declined sharply at the end of the first postmast summer, and then remained at low levels for 3 years. Pocket mouse abundance was not as strongly associated with blackbrush seed production. In mixed desert vegetation, kangaroo rat abundance was higher and more uniform through time. Kangaroo rats excluded the smaller pocket mice from resource-rich patches including a pipeline disturbance and also moved their home range centers closer to this disturbance in a year of low blackbrush seed production. Home range size for kangaroo rats was unrelated to seed resource density in the mast year, but resource-poor home ranges were larger (P < 0.001) in the first postmast year, when resources were limiting. Blackbrush seeds are higher in protein and fat but lower in carbohydrates than the more highly preferred seeds of Indian ricegrass (Achnatherum hymenoides) and have similar energy value per unit of handling time. Kangaroo rats cached seeds of these two species in similar spatial configurations, implying that they were equally valued as stored food resources. Blackbrush mast is a key resource regulating populations of kangaroo rats in this ecosystem.