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Ecological constraints on independent breeding are recognised as major drivers of cooperative breeding across diverse lineages. How the prevalence and degree of cooperative breeding relates to ecological variation remains unresolved. Using a large data set of cooperative nesting in Polistes wasps we demonstrate that different aspects of cooperative breeding are likely to be driven by different aspects of climate. Whether or not a species forms cooperative groups is associated with greater short-term temperature fluctuations. In contrast, the number of cooperative foundresses increases in more benign environments with warmer, wetter conditions. The same data set reveals that intraspecific responses to climate variation do not mirror genus-wide trends and instead are highly heterogeneous among species. Collectively these data suggest that the ecological drivers that lead to the origin or loss of cooperation are different from those that influence the extent of its expression within populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intensifying climate change and an increasing need for understanding its impacts on ecological communities places new emphasis on testing environmental stress models (ESMs). Using a prior literature search plus references from a more recent search, I evaluated empirical support for ESMs, focusing on whether consumer pressure on prey decreased (consumer stress model; CSM) or increased (prey stress model; PSM) with increasing environmental stress. Applying the criterion that testing ESMs requires conducting research at multiple sites along environmental stress gradients, the analysis found that CSMs were most frequent, with 'No Effect' and PSMs occurring at low but similar frequencies. This result contrasts to a prior survey in which 'No Effect' studies were most frequent, thus suggesting that consumers are generally more suppressed by stress than prey. Thus, increased climate change‐induced environmental stress seems likely to reduce, not increase impacts of consumers on prey more often than the reverse [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reefs are under threat from disease as climate change alters environmental conditions. Rising temperatures exacerbate coral disease, but this relationship is likely complex as other factors also influence coral disease prevalence. To better understand this relationship, we meta‐analytically examined 108 studies for changes in global coral disease over time alongside temperature, expressed using average summer sea surface temperature (SST) and cumulative heat stress as weekly sea surface temperature anomalies (WSSTAs). We found that both rising average summer SST and WSSTA were associated with global increases in the mean and variability in coral disease prevalence. Global coral disease prevalence tripled, reaching 9.92% in the 25 years examined, and the effect of 'year' became more stable (i.e. prevalence has lower variance over time), contrasting the effects of the two temperature stressors. Regional patterns diverged over time and differed in response to average summer SST. Our model predicted that, under the same trajectory, 76.8% of corals would be diseased globally by 2100, even assuming moderate average summer SST and WSSTA. These results highlight the need for urgent action to mitigate coral disease. Mitigating the impact of rising ocean temperatures on coral disease is a complex challenge requiring global discussion and further study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models (SDMs) are common tools for assessing the potential impact of climate change on species ranges. Uncertainty in SDM output occurs due to differences among alternate models, species characteristics and scenarios of future climate. While considerable effort is being devoted to identifying and quantifying the first two sources of variation, a greater understanding of climate scenarios and how they affect SDM output is also needed. Climate models are complex tools: variability occurs among alternate simulations, and no single ‘best’ model exists. The selection of climate scenarios for impacts assessments should not be undertaken arbitrarily - strengths and weakness of different climate models should be considered. In this paper, we provide bioclimatic modellers with an overview of emissions scenarios and climate models, discuss uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate and suggest steps that can be taken to reduce and communicate climate scenario-related uncertainty in assessments of future species responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological fitting is the process whereby organisms colonize and persist in novel environments, use novel resources or form novel associations with other species as a result of the suites of traits that they carry at the time they encounter the novel condition. This paper has four major aims. First, we review the original concept of ecological fitting and relate it to the concept of exaptation and current ideas on the positive role of phenotypic plasticity in evolution. Second, we propose phenotypic plasticity, correlated trait evolution and phylogenetic conservatism as specific mechanisms behind ecological fitting. Third, we attempt to operationalize the concept of ecological fitting by providing explicit definitions for terms. From these definitions, we propose a simple conceptual model of ecological fitting. Using this model, we demonstrate the differences and similarities between ecological fitting and ecological resource tracking and illustrate the process in the context of species colonizing new areas and forming novel associations with other species. Finally, we discuss how ecological fitting can be both a precursor to evolutionary diversity or maintainer of evolutionary stasis, depending on conditions. We conclude that ecological fitting is an important concept for understanding topics ranging from the assembly of ecological communities and species associations, to biological invasions, to the evolution of biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is a potent selective force in natural populations, yet the importance of adaptation in the response of plant species to past climate change has been questioned. As many species are unlikely to migrate fast enough to track the rapidly changing climate of the future, adaptation must play an increasingly important role in their response. In this paper we review recent work that has documented climate-related genetic diversity within populations or on the microgeographical scale. We then describe studies that have looked at the potential evolutionary responses of plant populations to future climate change. We argue that in fragmented landscapes, rapid climate change has the potential to overwhelm the capacity for adaptation in many plant populations and dramatically alter their genetic composition. The consequences are likely to include unpredictable changes in the presence and abundance of species within communities and a reduction in their ability to resist and recover from further environmental perturbations, such as pest and disease outbreaks and extreme climatic events. Overall, a range-wide increase in extinction risk is likely to result. We call for further research into understanding the causes and consequences of the maintenance and loss of climate-related genetic diversity within populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Too often, wilderness conservation ignores a temporal perspective greater than the past 50 years, yet a long-term perspective (centuries to millennia) reveals the dynamic nature of many ecosystems. Analysis of fossil pollen, charcoal and stable isotopes, combined with historical analyses and archaeology can reveal how ongoing interactions between climatic change, human activities and other disturbances have shaped today's landscapes over thousands of years. This interdisciplinary approach can inform wilderness conservation and also contribute to interpreting current trends and predicting how ecosystems might respond to future climate change. In this paper, we review literature that reveals how increasing collaboration among palaeoecologists, archaeologists, historians, anthropologists and ecologists is improving understanding of ecological complexity. Drawing on case studies from forested and non-forested ecosystems in Europe, the Americas, Africa and Australia, we discuss how this integrated approach can inform wilderness conservation and ecosystem management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of an overall “biodiversity crisis” many amphibian populations are in decline throughout the world. Numerous causes have been invoked to explain these declines. These include habitat destruction, climate change, increasing levels of ultraviolet radiation, environmental contamination, disease, and the introduction of non-native species. In this paper, we argue that amphibian population declines are caused by different abiotic and biotic factors acting together in a context-dependent fashion. Moreover, different species and different populations of the same species may react in different ways to the same environmental insult. Thus, the causes of amphibian population declines will vary spatially and temporally. Although some generalizations (e.g. those concerning environmental stress and disease outbreaks) can be made about amphibian population declines, we suggest that these generalizations take into account the context-dependent dynamics of ecological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the impacts of global warming on mutualisms poses a significant challenge given the functional and life history differences that usually exist among interacting species. However, this is a critical endeavour since virtually all species on Earth depend on other species for survival and/or reproduction. The field of thermal ecology can provide physiological and mechanistic insights, as well as quantitative tools, for addressing this challenge. Here, we develop a conceptual and quantitative framework that connects thermal physiology to species' traits, species' traits to interacting mutualists' traits and interacting traits to the mutualism. We first identify the functioning of reciprocal mutualism‐relevant traits in diverse systems as the key temperature‐dependent mechanisms driving the interaction. We then develop metrics that measure the thermal performance of interacting mutualists' traits and that approximate the thermal performance of the mutualism itself. This integrated approach allows us to additionally examine how warming might interact with resource/nutrient availability and affect mutualistic species' associations across space and time. We offer this framework as a synthesis of convergent and critical issues in mutualism science in a changing world, and as a baseline to which other ecological complexities and scales might be added. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire regimes are changing dramatically worldwide due to climate change, habitat conversion, and the suppression of Indigenous landscape management. Although there has been extensive work on plant responses to fire, including their adaptations to withstand fire and long‐term effects of fire on plant communities, less is known about animal responses to fire. Ecologists lack a conceptual framework for understanding behavioural responses to fire, which can hinder wildlife conservation and management. Here, we integrate cue‐response sensory ecology and predator‐prey theory to predict and explain variation in if, when and how animals react to approaching fire. Inspired by the literature on prey responses to predation risk, this framework considers both fire‐naïve and fire‐adapted animals and follows three key steps: vigilance, cue detection and response. We draw from theory on vigilance tradeoffs, signal detection, speed‐accuracy tradeoffs, fear generalization, neophobia and adaptive dispersal. We discuss how evolutionary history with fire, but also other selective pressures, such as predation risk, should influence animal behavioural responses to fire. We conclude by providing guidance for empiricists and outlining potential conservation applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vector‐borne diseases cause significant financial and human loss, with billions of dollars spent on control. Arthropod vectors experience a complex suite of environmental factors that affect fitness, population growth and species interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Temperature and water availability are two of the most important abiotic variables influencing their distributions and abundances. While extensive research on temperature exists, the influence of humidity on vector and pathogen parameters affecting disease dynamics are less understood. Humidity is often underemphasized, and when considered, is often treated as independent of temperature even though desiccation likely contributes to declines in trait performance at warmer temperatures. This Perspectives explores how humidity shapes the thermal performance of mosquito‐borne pathogen transmission. We summarize what is known about its effects and propose a conceptual model for how temperature and humidity interact to shape the range of temperatures across which mosquitoes persist and achieve high transmission potential. We discuss how failing to account for these interactions hinders efforts to forecast transmission dynamics and respond to epidemics of mosquito‐borne infections. We outline future research areas that will ground the effects of humidity on the thermal biology of pathogen transmission in a theoretical and empirical framework to improve spatial and temporal prediction of vector‐borne pathogen transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has led to widespread shifts in the timing of key life history events between interacting species (phenological asynchrony) with hypothesized cascading negative fitness impacts on one or more of the interacting species—often termed 'mismatch'. Yet, predicting the types of systems prone to mismatch remains a major hurdle. Recent reviews have argued that many studies do not provide strong evidence of the underlying match‐mismatch hypothesis, but none have quantitatively analysed support for it. Here, we test the hypothesis by estimating the prevalence of mismatch across antagonistic trophic interactions in terrestrial systems and then examine whether studies that meet the assumptions of the hypothesis are more likely to find a mismatch. Despite a large range of synchrony to asynchrony, we did not find general support for the hypothesis. Our results thus question the general applicability of this hypothesis in terrestrial systems, but they also suggest specific types of data missing to robustly refute it. We highlight the critical need to define resource seasonality and the window of 'match' for the most rigorous tests of the hypothesis. Such efforts are necessary if we want to predict systems where mismatches are likely to occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global greening, characterized by an increase in leaf area index (LAI), implies an increase in foliar carbon (C). Whether this increase in foliar C under climate change is due to higher photosynthesis or to higher allocation of C to leaves remains unknown. Here, we explored the trends in foliar C accumulation and allocation during leaf green‐up from 2000 to 2017 using satellite‐derived LAI and solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) across the Northern Hemisphere. The accumulation of foliar C accelerated in the early green‐up period due to both increased photosynthesis and higher foliar C allocation driven by climate change. In the late stage of green‐up, however, we detected decreasing trends in foliar C accumulation and foliar C allocation. Such stage‐dependent trends in the accumulation and allocation of foliar C are not represented in current terrestrial biosphere models. Our results highlight that a better representation of C allocation should be incorporated into models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change may disrupt plant–pollinator mutualisms by generating phenological asynchronies and by altering traits that shape interaction costs and benefits. Our knowledge is limited to studies that manipulate only one partner or focus on either phenological or trait‐based mismatches. We assembled communities of three annual plants and a solitary bee prior to flowering and emergence to test how springtime warming affects phenologies, traits, interactions and reproductive output. Warming advanced community‐level flowering onset, peak and end but did not alter bee emergence. Warmed plant communities produced fewer and smaller flowers with less, more‐concentrated nectar, reducing attractiveness, and warmed bees were more generalized in their foraging, reducing their effectiveness. Plant–bee interactions were less frequent, shorter and peaked earlier under warming. As a result, warmed plants produced fewer, lighter seeds, indicating pollinator‐mediated fitness costs. Climate change will perturb plant–pollinator mutualisms, causing wide‐ranging effects on partner species and diminishing the ecosystem service they provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid climate change may exceed ecosystems' capacities to respond through processes including phenotypic plasticity, compositional turnover and evolutionary adaption. However, consequences of the resulting climate disequilibria for ecosystem functioning are rarely considered in projections of climate change impacts. Combining statistical models fit to historical climate data and remotely‐sensed estimates of herbaceous net primary productivity with an ensemble of climate models, we demonstrate that assumptions concerning the magnitude of climate disequilibrium are a dominant source of uncertainty: models assuming maximum disequilibrium project widespread decreases in productivity in the western US by 2100, while models assuming minimal disequilibrium project productivity increases. Uncertainty related to climate disequilibrium is larger than uncertainties from variation among climate models or emissions pathways. A better understanding of processes that regulate climate disequilibria is essential for improving long‐term projections of ecological responses and informing management to maintain ecosystem functioning at historical baselines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees are long‐lived organisms, exhibiting temporally complex growth arising from strong climatic "memory." But conditions are becoming increasingly arid in the western USA. Using a century‐long tree‐ring network, we find altered climate memory across the entire range of a widespread western US conifer: growth is supported by precipitation falling further into the past (+15 months), while increasingly impacted by more recent temperature conditions (−8 months). Tree‐ring datasets can be biased, so we confirm altered climate memory in a second, ecologically‐sampled tree‐ring network. Predicted drought responses show trees may have also become more sensitive to repeat drought. Finally, plots near sites with relatively longer precipitation memory and shorter temperature memory had significantly lower recent mortality rates (R2 = 0.61). We argue that increased drought frequency has altered climate memory, demonstrate how non‐stationarity may arise from failure to account for memory, and suggest memory length may be predictive of future tree mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the factors affecting thermal tolerance is crucial for predicting the impact climate change will have on ectotherms. However, the role developmental plasticity plays in allowing populations to cope with thermal extremes is poorly understood. Here, we meta‐analyse how thermal tolerance is initially and persistently impacted by early (embryonic and juvenile) thermal environments by using data from 150 experimental studies on 138 ectothermic species. Thermal tolerance only increased by 0.13°C per 1°C change in developmental temperature and substantial variation in plasticity (~36%) was the result of shared evolutionary history and species ecology. Aquatic ectotherms were more than three times as plastic as terrestrial ectotherms. Notably, embryos expressed weaker but more heterogenous plasticity than older life stages, with numerous responses appearing as non‐adaptive. While developmental temperatures did not have persistent effects on thermal tolerance overall, persistent effects were vastly under‐studied, and their direction and magnitude varied with ontogeny. Embryonic stages may represent a critical window of vulnerability to changing environments and we urge researchers to consider early life stages when assessing the climate vulnerability of ectotherms. Overall, our synthesis suggests that developmental changes in thermal tolerance rarely reach levels of perfect compensation and may provide limited benefit in changing environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations must adapt to environmental changes to remain viable. Both evolution and phenotypic plasticity contribute to adaptation, with plasticity possibly being more important for coping with rapid change. Adaptation is complex in species with separate sexes, as the sexes can differ in the strength or direction of natural selection, the genetic basis of trait variation, and phenotypic plasticity. Many species show sex differences in plasticity, yet how these differences influence extinction susceptibility remains unclear. We first extend theoretical models of population persistence in changing environments and show that persistence is affected by sexual dimorphism for phenotypic plasticity, trait genetic architecture, and sex‐specific selection. Our models predict that female‐biased adaptive plasticity—particularly in traits with modest‐to‐low cross‐sex genetic correlations—typically promotes persistence, though we also identify conditions where sexually monomorphic or male‐biased plasticity promotes persistence. We then perform a meta‐analysis of sex‐specific plasticity under manipulated thermal conditions. Although examples of sexually dimorphic plasticity are widely observed, systematic sex differences are rare. An exception—cold resistance—is systematically female‐biased and represents a trait wherein sexually dimorphic plasticity might elevate population viability in changing environments. We discuss our results in light of debates about the roles of evolution and plasticity in extinction susceptibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change may affect plant–herbivore interactions and their associated ecosystem functions. In an experimental evolution approach, we subjected replicated populations of the invasive Ambrosia artemisiifolia to a combination of simulated warming and herbivory by a potential biocontrol beetle. We tracked genomic and metabolomic changes across generations in field populations and assessed plant offspring phenotypes in a common environment. Using an integrated Bayesian model, we show that increased offspring biomass in response to warming arose through changes in the genetic composition of populations. In contrast, increased resistance to herbivory arose through a shift in plant metabolomic profiles without genetic changes, most likely by transgenerational induction of defences. Importantly, while increased resistance was costly at ambient temperatures, warming removed this constraint and favoured both vigorous and better defended plants under biocontrol. Climate warming may thus decrease biocontrol efficiency and promote Ambrosia invasion, with potentially serious economic and health consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is predicted to drive geographical range shifts, leading to fluctuations in species richness (SR) worldwide. However, the effect of these changes on functional diversity (FD) remains unclear, in part because comprehensive species‐level trait data are generally lacking at global scales. Here, we use morphometric and ecological traits for 8268 bird species to estimate the impact of climate change on avian FD. We show that future bird assemblages are likely to undergo substantial shifts in trait structure, with a magnitude of change greater than predicted from SR alone, and a direction of change varying according to geographical location and trophic guild. For example, our models predict that FD of insect predators will increase at higher latitudes with concurrent losses at mid‐latitudes, whereas FD of seed dispersing birds will fluctuate across the tropics. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to drive continental‐scale shifts in avian FD with implications for ecosystem function and resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding climate change impacts on top predators is fundamental to marine biodiversity conservation, due to their increasingly threatened populations and their importance in marine ecosystems. We conducted a systematic review of the effects of climate change (prolonged, directional change) and climate variability on seabirds and marine mammals. We extracted data from 484 studies (4808 published studies were reviewed), comprising 2215 observations on demography, phenology, distribution, diet, behaviour, body condition and physiology. The likelihood of concluding that climate change had an impact increased with study duration. However, the temporal thresholds for the effects of climate change to be discernibly varied from 10 to 29 years depending on the species, the biological response and the oceanic study region. Species with narrow thermal ranges and relatively long generation times were more often reported to be affected by climate change. This provides an important framework for future assessments, with guidance on response‐ and region‐specific temporal dimensions that need to be considered when reporting effects of climate change. Finally, we found that tropical regions and non‐breeding life stages were poorly covered in the literature, a concern that should be addressed to enable a better understanding of the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process‐explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process‐explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate‐driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid‐Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range‐wide extinction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of the percentage of species "committed to extinction" by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species' range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate‐plus‐competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution of Pinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species' distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range‐limiting processes, including landscape‐scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions—through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks—are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate‐only perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theory and some evidence suggest that biodiversity promotes stability. However, evidence of how trophic interactions and environmental changes modulate this relationship in multitrophic communities is lacking. Given the current scenario of biodiversity loss and climate changes, where top predators are disproportionately more affected, filling these knowledge gaps is crucial. We simulated climate warming and top predator loss in natural microcosms to investigate their direct and indirect effects on temporal stability of microbial communities and the role of underlying stabilising mechanisms. Community stability was insensitive to warming, but indirectly decreased due to top predator loss via increased mesopredator abundance and consequent reduction of species asynchrony and species stability. The magnitude of destabilising effects differed among trophic levels, being disproportionally higher at lower trophic levels (e.g. producers). Our study unravels major patterns and causal mechanisms by which trophic downgrading destabilises large food webs, regardless of climate warming scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animals require a certain amount of habitat to persist and thrive, and habitat loss is one of the most critical drivers of global biodiversity decline. While habitat requirements have been predicted by relationships between species traits and home‐range size, little is known about constraints imposed by environmental conditions and human impacts on a global scale. Our meta‐analysis of 395 vertebrate species shows that global climate gradients in temperature and precipitation exert indirect effects via primary productivity, generally reducing space requirements. Human pressure, however, reduces realised space use due to ensuing limitations in available habitat, particularly for large carnivores. We show that human pressure drives extinction risk by increasing the mismatch between space requirements and availability. We use large‐scale climate gradients to predict current species extinction risk across global regions, which also offers an important tool for predicting future extinction risk due to ongoing space loss and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Morphological and phenological traits are key determinants of the structure of mutualistic networks. Both traits create forbidden links, but phenological traits can also decouple interaction in time. While such difference likely affects the indirect effects among species and consequently network persistence, it remains overlooked. Here, using a dynamic model, we show that networks structured by phenology favour facilitation over competition within guilds of pollinators and plants, thereby increasing network persistence, while the contrary holds for networks structured by morphology. We further show that such buffering of competition by phenological traits mostly beneficiate to specialists, the most vulnerable species otherwise, which propagate the most positive effects within guilds and promote nestedness. Our results indicate that beyond trophic mismatch, phenological shifts such as those induced by climate change are likely to affect indirect effects within mutualistic assemblages, with consequences for biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Angiosperm sexual systems are fundamental to the evolution and distribution of plant diversity, yet spatiotemporal patterns in angiosperm sexual systems and their drivers remain poorly known. Using data on sexual systems and distributions of 68453 angiosperm species, we present the first global maps of sexual system frequencies and evaluate sexual system evolution during the Cenozoic. Frequencies of dioecy and monoecy increase with latitude, while hermaphrodites are more frequent in warm and arid regions. Transitions to dioecy from other states were higher than to hermaphroditism, but transitions away from dioecy increased since the Cenozoic, suggesting that dioecy is not an evolutionary end point. Transitions between hermaphroditism and dioecy increased, while transitions to monoecy decreased with paleo‐temperature when paleo‐temperature >0℃. Our study demonstrates the biogeography of angiosperm sexual systems from a macroecological perspective, and enhances our understanding of plant diversity patterns and their response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long‐term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (45%) used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends were observed for the minority of species (15%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many species are responding to global warming by shifting their distributions upslope to higher elevations, but the observed rates of shifts vary considerably among studies. Here, we test the hypothesis that this variation is in part explained by latitude, with tropical species being particularly responsive to warming temperatures. We analyze two independent empirical datasets—shifts in species' elevational ranges, and changes in composition of forest inventory tree plots. Tropical species are tracking rising temperatures 2.1–2.4 times (range shift dataset) and 10 times (tree plot dataset) better than their temperate counterparts. Models predict that for a 100 m upslope shift in temperature isotherm, species at the equator have shifted their elevational ranges 93–96 m upslope, while species at 45° latitude have shifted only 37–42 m upslope. For tree plots, models predict that a 1°C increase in temperature leads to an increase in community temperature index (CTI), a metric of the average temperature optima of tree species within a plot, of 0.56°C at the equator but no change in CTI at 45° latitude (–0.033°C). This latitudinal gradient in temperature tracking suggests that tropical montane communities may be on an "escalator to extinction" as global temperatures continue to rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Alpine large herbivores have developed physiological and behavioural mechanisms to cope with fluctuations in climate and resource availability that may become maladaptive under climate warming. We tested this hypothesis in female Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) by modelling annual and daily movement and activity patterns in relation to temperature, vegetation productivity and reproductive status based on bio‐logging data and climate change projections. In summer, ibex moved upslope, tracking the green wave. Ibex decreased diel activity sharply above a threshold temperature of 13–14°C, indicating thermal stress, but compensated behaviourally by foraging both earlier and later in the day, and by moving further upslope than on cooler days, especially reproductive females. This critical temperature will be exceeded three times as often under climate change projections. Under such scenarios, the altitudinal extent of the area will limit the available habitat providing thermal shelter, potentially impacting performance and population distribution of this emblematic mountain ungulate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of individuals is affected by random events such as death, realized growth or realized reproduction, and the outcomes of these events can differ even when individuals have identical probabilities. Another source of randomness arises when these probabilities also change over time in variable environments. For structured populations in stochastic environments, we extend our recent method to determine how birth environment and birth stage determine the random distribution of the LRS. Our results provide a null model that quantifies effects on LRS of just the birth size or stage. Using Roe deer Capreolus capreolus as a case study, we show that the effect of an individual's birth environment on LRS varies with the frequency of environments and their temporal autocorrelation, and that lifetime performance is affected by changes in the pattern of environmental states expected as a result of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For many species, climate change leads to range shifts that are detectable, but often insufficient to track historical climatic conditions. These lags of species range shifts behind climatic conditions are often coined "climatic debts", but the demographic costs entailed by the word "debt" have not been demonstrated. Here, we used opportunistic distribution data for c. 4000 European plant species to estimate the temporal shifts in climatic conditions experienced by these species and their occupancy trends, over the last 65 years. The resulting negative relationship observed between these two variables provides the first piece of evidence that European plants are already paying a climatic debt in Alpine, Atlantic and Boreal regions. In contrast, plants appear to benefit from a surprising "climatic bonus" in the Mediterranean. We also find that among multiple pressures faced by plants, climate change is now on par with other known drivers of occupancy trends, including eutrophication and urbanisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For migratory species, seasonal movements complicate local climate adaptation, as it is unclear whether individuals track climate niches across the annual cycle. In the migratory songbird yellow warbler (Setophaga petechia), we find a correlation between individual‐level wintering and breeding precipitation, but not temperature. Birds wintering in the driest regions of the Neotropics breed in the driest regions of North America. Individuals from drier regions also possess distinct morphologies and population responses to varying rainfall. We find a positive association between bill size and breeding season precipitation which, given documented climate‐associated genomic variation, might reflect adaptation to local precipitation regimes. Relative abundance in the breeding range is linked to interannual fluctuations in precipitation, but the directionality of this response varies across geography. Together, our results suggest that variation in climate optima may exist across the breeding range of yellow warblers and provide a mechanism for selection across the annual cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under‐constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial‐scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen‐inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and biomass for the last millennium with five ecosystem model simulations. In both observations and models, spatial patterns in ecosystem responses to hydroclimate variability are strongly governed by ecosystem sensitivity rather than climate exposure. Ecosystem sensitivity was higher in models than observations and highest in simpler models. Model‐data comparisons suggest that interactions among biodiversity, demography and ecophysiology processes dampen the sensitivity of forest composition and biomass to climate variability and change. Integrating ecosystem models with observations from timescales extending beyond the instrumental record can better understand and forecast the mechanisms regulating forest sensitivity to climate variability in a complex and changing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population cycles are fundamentally linked with spatial synchrony, the prevailing paradigm being that populations with cyclic dynamics are easily synchronised. That is, population cycles help give rise to spatial synchrony. Here we demonstrate this process can work in reverse, with synchrony causing population cycles. We show that timescale‐specific environmental effects, by synchronising local population dynamics on certain timescales only, cause major population cycles over large areas in white‐tailed deer. An important aspect of the new mechanism is specificity of synchronising effects to certain timescales, which causes local dynamics to sum across space to a substantial cycle on those timescales. We also demonstrate, to our knowledge for the first time, that synchrony can be transmitted not only from environmental drivers to populations (deer), but also from there to human systems (deer‐vehicle collisions). Because synchrony of drivers may be altered by climate change, changes to population cycles may arise via our mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In cold environments ectotherms can be dormant underground for long periods. In 1941 Cowles proposed an ecological trade‐off involving the depth at which ectotherms overwintered: on warm days, only shallow reptiles could detect warming soils and become active; but on cold days, they risked freezing. Cowles discovered that most reptiles at a desert site overwintered at shallow depths. To extend his study, we compiled hourly soil temperatures (5 depths, 90 sites, continental USA) and physiological data, and simulated consequences of overwintering at fixed depths. In warm localities shallow ectotherms have lowest energy costs and largest reserves in spring, but in cold localities, they risk freezing. Ectotherms shifting hourly to the coldest depth potentially reduce energy expenses, but paradoxically sometimes have higher expenses than those at fixed depths. Biophysical simulations for a desert site predict that shallow ectotherms have increased opportunities for mid‐winter activity but need to move deep to digest captured food. Our simulations generate testable predictions to eco‐physiological questions but rely on physiological responses to acute cold rather than to natural cooling profiles. Furthermore, natural‐history data to test most predictions do not exist. Thus, our simulation approach uncovers knowledge gaps and suggests research agendas for studying ectotherms overwintering underground. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New ecological niches that may arise due to climate change can trigger diversification, but their colonisation often requires adaptations in a suite of life‐history traits. We test this hypothesis in species‐rich Mycalesina butterflies that have undergone parallel radiations in Africa, Asia, and Madagascar. First, our ancestral state reconstruction of habitat preference, using c. 85% of extant species, revealed that early forest‐linked lineages began to invade seasonal savannahs during the late Miocene‐Pliocene. Second, rearing replicate pairs of forest and savannah species from the African and Malagasy radiation in a common garden experiment, and utilising published data from the Asian radiation, demonstrated that savannah species consistently develop faster, have smaller bodies, higher fecundity with an earlier investment in reproduction, and reduced longevity, compared to forest species across all three radiations. We argue that time‐constraints for reproduction favoured the evolution of a faster pace‐of‐life in savannah species that facilitated their persistence in seasonal habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity loss and climate change are often considered as intertwined issues. However, they do not receive equal attention. Even in the context of nature‐based climate solutions, which consider ecosystems to be crucial to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change, the potential role of biodiversity has received little attention. Here this essay emphasizes biodiversity as the cause—not only the consequence—to help society and nature face challenges associated with the changing climate. Reconsidering and emphasizing the linkages between these twin environmental crises is urgently needed to make collective efforts for the environment truly effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has been shown to induce shifts in the timing of life‐history events. As a result, interactions between species can become disrupted, with potentially detrimental effects. Predicting these consequences has proven challenging. We apply structured population models to a well‐characterised great tit‐caterpillar model system and identify thresholds of temporal asynchrony, beyond which the predator population will rapidly go extinct. Our model suggests that phenotypic plasticity in predator breeding timing initially maintains temporal synchrony in the face of environmental change. However, under projections of climate change, predator plasticity was insufficient to keep pace with prey phenology. Directional evolution then accelerated, but could not prevent mismatch. Once predator phenology lagged behind prey by more than 24 days, rapid extinction was inevitable, despite previously stable population dynamics. Our projections suggest that current population stability could be masking a route to population collapse, if high greenhouse gas emissions continue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has likely altered high‐latitude forests globally, but direct evidence remains rare. Here we show that throughout a ≈1000‐km transect in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests in Sweden, mature trees in ≈2015 had longer needles with shorter lifetimes than did trees in ≈1915. These century‐scale shifts in needle traits were detected by sampling needles at 74 sites from 2012 to 2017 along the same transect where needle traits had been assessed at 57 sites in 1914–1915. Climate warming of ≈1 °C all along the transect in the past century has driven this temporal shift in foliage traits known to be physiologically critical to growth and carbon cycling processes. These century‐scale changes in Scandinavian Scots pine forests represent a fingerprint of climate change on a fundamental biological element, the leaf, with repercussions for productivity and sensitivity to future climate, which are likely to be mirrored by similar changes for evergreen conifers across the boreal biome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenotypic plasticity is a prominent mechanism for coping with variable environments, and a key determinant of extinction risk. Evolutionary theory predicts that phenotypic plasticity should evolve to lower levels in environments that fluctuate less predictably, because they induce mismatches between plastic responses and selective pressures. However, this prediction is difficult to test in nature, where environmental predictability is not controlled. Here, we exposed 32 lines of the halotolerant microalga Dunaliella salina to ecologically realistic, randomly fluctuating salinity, with varying levels of predictability, for 500 generations. We found that morphological plasticity evolved to lower degrees in lines that experienced less predictable environments. Evolution of plasticity mostly concerned phases with slow population growth, rather than the exponential phase where microbes are typically phenotyped. This study underlines that long‐term experiments with complex patterns of environmental change are needed to test theories about population responses to altered environmental predictability, as currently observed under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is shifting the environmental cues that determine the phenology of interacting species. Plant–pollinator systems may be susceptible to temporal mismatch if bees and flowering plants differ in their phenological responses to warming temperatures. While the cues that trigger flowering are well‐understood, little is known about what determines bee phenology. Using generalised additive models, we analyzed time‐series data representing 67 bee species collected over 9 years in the Colorado Rocky Mountains to perform the first community‐wide quantification of the drivers of bee phenology. Bee emergence was sensitive to climatic variation, advancing with earlier snowmelt timing, whereas later phenophases were best explained by functional traits including overwintering stage and nest location. Comparison of these findings to a long‐term flower study showed that bee phenology is less sensitive than flower phenology to climatic variation, indicating potential for reduced synchrony of flowers and pollinators under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental variability can lead to dispersal: why stay put if it is better elsewhere? Without clues about local conditions, the optimal strategy is often to disperse a set fraction of offspring. Many habitats contain environmentally differing sub‐habitats. Is it adaptive for individuals to sense in which sub‐habitat they find themselves, using environmental clues, and respond plastically by altering the dispersal rates? This appears to be done by some plants which produce dimorphic seeds with differential dispersal properties in response to ambient temperature. Here we develop a mathematical model to show, that in highly variable environments, not only does sensing promote plasticity of dispersal morph ratio, individuals who can sense their sub‐habitat and respond in this way have an adaptive advantage over those who cannot. With a rise in environmental variability due to climate change, our understanding of how natural populations persist and respond to changes has become crucially important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change alters seasonal conditions without altering photoperiod and can thus create a cue‐environment mismatch for organisms that use photoperiod as a cue for seasonal plasticity. We investigated whether evolution of the photoperiodic reaction norm has compensated for this mismatch in Colias eurytheme. This butterfly's wing melanization has a thermoregulatory function and changes seasonally. In 1971, Hoffmann quantified how larval photoperiod determines adult wing melanization. We recreated his experiment 47 years later using a contemporary population. Comparing our results to his, we found decreased melanization at short photoperiods but no change in melanization at long photoperiods, which is consistent with the greater increase in spring than summer temperatures recorded for this region. Our study shows that evolution can help correct cue‐environment mismatches but not in the same way under all conditions. Studies of contemporary evolution may miss important changes if they focus on only a limited range of conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key challenge in ecology is to understand the relationships between organismal traits and ecosystem processes. Here, with a novel dataset of leaf length and width for 10 480 woody dicots in China and 2374 in North America, we show that the variation in community mean leaf size is highly correlated with the variation in climate and ecosystem primary productivity, independent of plant life form. These relationships likely reflect how natural selection modifies leaf size across varying climates in conjunction with how climate influences canopy total leaf area. We find that the leaf size‒primary productivity functions based on the Chinese dataset can predict productivity in North America and vice‐versa. In addition to advancing understanding of the relationship between a climate‐driven trait and ecosystem functioning, our findings suggest that leaf size can also be a promising tool in palaeoecology for scaling from fossil leaves to palaeo‐primary productivity of woody ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phytoplankton are the unicellular photosynthetic microbes that form the base of aquatic ecosystems, and their responses to global change will impact everything from food web dynamics to global nutrient cycles. Some taxa respond to environmental change by increasing population growth rates in the short‐term and are projected to increase in frequency over decades. To gain insight into how these projected 'climate change winners' evolve, we grew populations of microalgae in ameliorated environments for several hundred generations. Most populations evolved to allocate a smaller proportion of carbon to growth while increasing their ability to tolerate and metabolise reactive oxygen species (ROS). This trade‐off drives the evolution of traits that underlie the ecological and biogeochemical roles of phytoplankton. This offers evolutionary and a metabolic frameworks for understanding trait evolution in projected 'climate change winners' and suggests that short‐term population booms have the potential to be dampened or reversed when environmental amelioration persists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite data indicate significant advancement in alpine spring phenology over decades of climate warming, but corresponding field evidence is scarce. It is also unknown whether this advancement results from an earlier shift of phenological events, or enhancement of plant growth under unchanged phenological pattern. By analyzing a 35‐year dataset of seasonal biomass dynamics of a Tibetan alpine grassland, we show that climate change promoted both earlier phenology and faster growth, without changing annual biomass production. Biomass production increased in spring due to a warming‐induced earlier onset of plant growth, but decreased in autumn due mainly to increased water stress. Plants grew faster but the fast‐growing period shortened during the mid‐growing season. These findings provide the first in situ evidence of long‐term changes in growth patterns in alpine grassland plant communities, and suggest that earlier phenology and faster growth will jointly contribute to plant growth in a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Underpinnings of the distribution of allopolyploid species (hybrids with duplicated genome) along spatial and ecological gradients are elusive. As allopolyploid speciation combines the range of genetic and ecological characteristics of divergent diploids, allopolyploids initially show their additivity and are predicted to evolve differentiated ecological niches to establish in face of their competition. Here, we use four diploid wild wheats that differentially combined into four independent allopolyploid species to test for such additivity and assess the impact of ecological constraints on species ranges. Divergent genetic variation from diploids being fixed in heterozygote allopolyploids supports their genetic additivity. Spatial integration of comparative phylogeography and modelling of climatic niches supports ecological additivity of locally adapted diploid progenitors into allopolyploid species which subsequently colonised wide ranges. Allopolyploids fill suitable range to a larger extent than diploids and conservative evolution following the combination of divergent species appears to support their expansion under environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the anthropogenic impact on ecosystems today is evident, it remains unclear if the detrimental effect of hominins on co‐occurring biodiversity is a recent phenomenon or has also been the pattern for earlier hominin species. We test this using the East African carnivore fossil record. We analyse the diversity of carnivores over the last four million years and investigate whether any decline is related to an increase in hominin cognitive capacity, vegetation changes or climatic changes. We find that extinction rates in large carnivores correlate with increased hominin brain size and with vegetation changes, but not with precipitation or temperature changes. While temporal analyses cannot distinguish between the effects of vegetation changes and hominins, we show through spatial analyses of contemporary carnivores in Africa that only hominin causation is plausible. Our results suggest that substantial anthropogenic influence on biodiversity started millions of years earlier than currently assumed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a rapidly changing world, quantifying ecosystem resilience is an important challenge. Historically, resilience has been defined via models that do not take spatial effects into account. These systems can only adapt via uniform adjustments. In reality, however, the response is not necessarily uniform, and can lead to the formation of (self‐organised) spatial patterns – typically localised vegetation patches. Classical measures of resilience cannot capture the emerging dynamics in spatially self‐organised systems, including transitions between patterned states that have limited impact on ecosystem structure and productivity. We present a framework of interlinked phase portraits that appropriately quantifies the resilience of patterned states, which depends on the number of patches, the distances between them and environmental conditions. We show how classical resilience concepts fail to distinguish between small and large pattern transitions, and find that the variance in interpatch distances provides a suitable indicator for the type of imminent transition. Subsequently, we describe the dependency of ecosystem degradation based on the rate of climatic change: slow change leads to sporadic, large transitions, whereas fast change causes a rapid sequence of smaller transitions. Finally, we discuss how pre‐emptive removal of patches can minimise productivity losses during pattern transitions, constituting a viable conservation strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]