1. Prediction uncertainty of environmental change effects on temperate European biodiversity
- Author
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Raphaël De Cock, St. Klotz, Regula Billeter, Jana Verboom, N. Schermann, St. Aviron, M. Roubalova, Tim Diekötter, Petra Šímová, Jacques Baudry, J.P. Maelfait, Paul Arens, Walter K. R. E. van Wingerden, Frederik Hendrickx, Marinus J. M. Smulders, Agnès Schermann-Legionnet, Carsten F. Dormann, Mark Frenzel, R. Hamersky, F. Herzog, Oliver Schweiger, Jaan Liira, Rob Bugter, Walter Durka, J. Dirksen, M. Speelmans, Françoise Burel, T. Schmidt, I. Augenstein, Angela Lausch, Debra Bailey, B.J.H. Koolstra, M. Cerny, Paul Opdam, Martin Zobel, Geert De Blust, D. Le Coeur, R. DeFilippi, Roman Bukacek, Peter J. Edwards, Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Plant Research International (PRI), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Agroscope FAL Reckenholz (AGROSCOPE), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Ecosystèmes, biodiversité, évolution [Rennes] (ECOBIO), Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Unité de recherche SAD Armorique (AMORIQUE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Centre Armoricain de Recherche en Environnement (CAREN), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Rennes-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Alterra Green World Research (AGWR), Nature Conservation Authority (NCA), Nature Conservation Authority, Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research (IFER), Institute of Foret Ecosystem Research, INBO - Research Institute for Nature and Forest, Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), INBO, Institute of Integrative Biology (ETH), Terrestrial Ecology Unit (TEREC) (TEREC), State University of Ghent, Institut de minéralogie et de physique des milieux condensés (IMPMC), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-IPG PARIS-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), PaleoEnvironnements et PaleobioSphere (PEPS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut für Geowissenschaften, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, Institute of Geosciences, University of Tübingen, Institute of Botany and Ecology, University of Tartu, GREENVEINS (projet europeen), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] (WUR), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), INRA SAD Armorique, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, INRA-SAD Armorique, Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut Ecologie et Environnement (INEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Rennes (UR)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Rennes-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPG Paris)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), and Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Environmental change ,Climate ,distributions ,Biodiversity ,Landgebruiksplanning ,envelope ,01 natural sciences ,multimodel inference ,PRI Biodiversiteit en Veredeling ,Wageningen Environmental Research ,species richness ,uncertainty analysis ,Uncertainty analysis ,Geography ,Ecology ,environmental change ,Plants ,Europe ,communities ,climate change ,climate-change ,Gamma diversity ,[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,Climate change ,projection ,extinction risk ,Environment ,010603 evolutionary biology ,Models, Biological ,Birds ,agricultural landscapes ,models ,Landscape Centre ,cover data ,Land Use Planning ,Animals ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,land-use intensity ,Arthropods ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,WIMEK ,Alterra - Centrum Landschap ,Species diversity ,Global change ,15. Life on land ,PRI Biodiversity and Breeding ,13. Climate action ,Environmental science ,Species richness ,[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology - Abstract
FR2116; International audience; Observed patterns of species richness at landscape scale (gamma diversity) cannot always be attributed to a specific set of explanatory variables, but rather different alternative explanatory statistical models of similar quality may exist. Therefore predictions of the effects of environmental change (such as in climate or land cover) on biodiversity may differ considerably, depending on the chosen set of explanatory variables. Here we use multimodel prediction to evaluate effects of climate, land-use intensity and landscape structure on species richness in each of seven groups of organisms (plants, birds, spiders, wild bees, ground beetles, true bugs and hoverflies) in temperate Europe. We contrast this approach with traditional best-model predictions, which we show, using cross-validation, to have inferior prediction accuracy. Multimodel inference changed the importance of some environmental variables in comparison with the best model, and accordingly gave deviating predictions for environmental change effects. Overall, prediction uncertainty for the multimodel approach was only slightly higher than that of the best model, and absolute changes in predicted species richness were also comparable. Richness predictions varied generally more for the impact of climate change than for land-use change at the coarse scale of our study. Overall, our study indicates that the uncertainty introduced to environmental change predictions through uncertainty in model selection both qualitatively and quantitatively affects species richness projections.
- Published
- 2008