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This paper applies the threshold quantile autoregressive model to study stock return autocorrelations and predictability in the Chinese stock market from 2005 to 2014. The results show that the Shanghai A-share stock index has significant negative autocorrelations in the lower regime and has significant positive autocorrelations in the higher regime. It attributes that Chinese investors overreact and underreact in two different states. These results are similar when we employ individual stocks. Besides, we investigate stock return autocorrelations by different stock characteristics, including liquidity, volatility, market to book ratio and investor sentiment. The results show autocorrelations are significantly large in the middle and higher regimes of market to book ratio and volatility. Psychological biases can result into return autocorrelations by using investor sentiment proxy since autocorrelations are significantly larger in the middle and higher regime of investor sentiment. The empirical results show that predictability exists in the Chinese stock market.

This paper employs the panel quantile regression model to study the nonlinear effect of investor sentiment on monthly stock returns in the Chinese A-share stock market. The findings show that the influence of investor sentiment is significant from 1 month to 24 months. Its effect is asymmetric and reversal, that is, it is positive and large for stocks with high returns in the short term while negative and small in the long term. This reversal effect verifies the existence of a strong overreaction in the Chinese stock market. We also find that Chinese investors have notable cognitive bias and speculation tendency.