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Abstract Consideration of the full annual cycle population dynamics can provide useful insight for conservation efforts, but collecting data needed to estimate demographic parameters is often logistically difficult. For species that breed in remote areas, monitoring is often conducted during migratory stopover or at nonbreeding sites, and the recruitment rate of new breeding adults can be difficult to estimate directly. Here, we present an integrated population model that uses mark‐resight and count data to estimate survival probability, population growth rate, and recruitment rate for an Arctic‐breeding shorebird of conservation concern, the red knot (Calidris canutus rufa), from data collected during spring stopover in Delaware Bay, USA, from 2005 to 2018. At this site, red knots feed primarily on the eggs of spawning horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus), a legally harvested species. We used this model to estimate the relationship between horseshoe crab abundance and red knot demographics, which informed a recent revision to the framework used to establish horseshoe crab harvest regulations. Our analysis indicates that the red knot population was most likely stable from 2005 to 2018 (average λ = 1.03, 95% credible interval [CRI]: 0.961, 1.15) despite low recruitment rates (average ρ = 0.088, 95% CRI: 0.012, 0.18). Adult survival probability was positively associated with horseshoe crab abundance in the same year (β = 0.35, 95% CRI: 0.09, 0.63), but we found no effect of horseshoe crab abundance two years previously on recruitment of new adults (β = −0.08, 95% CRI: −0.41, 0.38). Our approach demonstrates the utility of integrated population models for understanding population dynamics, even when data are only available from migratory stopover monitoring.

Abstract Impacts of ecological mismatches should be most pronounced at points of the annual cycle when populations depend on a predictable, abundant, and aggregated food resource that changes in timing or distribution. The degree to which species specialize on a key prey item, therefore, should determine their sensitivity to mismatches. We evaluated the hypothesis that the effects of ecological mismatch during migratory stopover are mediated by a species’ foraging ecology by comparing two similar long‐distance migratory species that differ in their foraging strategies during stopover. We predicted that a specialist foraging strategy would make species more sensitive to effects of mismatch with a historically abundant prey, while an active, generalist foraging strategy should help buffer against changing local conditions. We estimated arrival times, start of mass gain, and rate of mass gain during spring stopover in Delaware Bay, USA. At this site, shorebirds feed on a temporally aggregated food resource (horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus eggs), the timing of which is linked to water temperature; red knot (Calidris canutus rufa) specializes on these while the ruddy turnstone (Arenaria interpres) feeds more generally. We used a hierarchical nonlinear model to estimate the effect of mismatch between shorebird arrivals and timing of crab spawning on the timing and rate of mass gain over 22 yr. In years with cooler water temperature, crabs spawned later, which was associated with later and faster mass gain for the knots. Turnstones exhibited less inter‐annual variation in the timing and rate of mass gain than knots, and we found no relationship between mass gain dynamics and the availability of horseshoe crab eggs for this generalist species. Long‐distance migrants rely on predictable resources en route and even when these linkages are simple and predictable, populations can be vulnerable to change; these results suggest that generalist foraging strategies may buffer migratory species against phenological mismatch. We provide a framework to evaluate population responses to changes in prey phenology at sites vulnerable to climatic change.

Abstract The intensity of Atlantic Ocean hurricanes is predicted to increase, and although disturbance is recognized as a fundamental driver of ecological processes, the benefits of hurricanes to ecological systems are seldom acknowledged. In October 2012, Hurricane Sandy overwashed Fire Island and Westhampton Island, New York. The storm flattened dunes, buried vegetation, and breached the barrier islands in several places. To reduce future overwashing, engineers attempted to stabilize the islands. We studied nest‐site selection, suitable habitat, and abundance of a threatened shorebird, the piping plover (Charadrius melodus), before and after Hurricane Sandy. Prior to the hurricane, piping plovers selected nest sites (n = 62) farther from the ocean (x¯ least‐cost distance = 82.8 m) and bay (x¯ Euclidean distance = 697.7 m; x¯ least‐cost distance = 24,160.6 m) than would be expected if they were selecting nest sites at random. Following the hurricane, piping plovers selected nest sites (n = 45) predominantly in or near storm overwash habitat, which was close to, and had unobstructed walking access to, the ocean (x¯ least‐cost distance = 123.4 m) and newly created bayside foraging habitats (x¯ Euclidean distance = 468.0 m; x¯ least‐cost distance = 728.9 m). Areas overwashed by the hurricane contained the most suitable piping plover habitat across all new habitat types. Piping plover abundance increased 93% by 2018 from pre‐Hurricane Sandy abundances, with most pairs nesting in new habitats. However, only 58% of suitable piping plover habitat was protected from recreational use and few piping plovers used unprotected habitats for nesting. Our results suggest that the ecological benefits of increased storminess may be maximized by coupling coastal stabilization with targeted conservation of storm‐created habitats.