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As climate-driven environmental changes and anthropogenic perturbations increasingly affect ecological systems, the number of abrupt phase shifts in ecosystem dynamics is rising, with far-reaching ecological, economic and social effects. These shifts are notoriously difficult to study, anticipate and manage. Although indicators of impending phase shifts in ecosystems have been described theoretically, they have only been observed empirically either after the fact or under controlled experiments. Here we demonstrate the usefulness of case-specific simulation models to estimate tipping points in the dynamics of real ecological systems, characterise how these thresholds may vary depending on local conditions and derive safe management targets associated with low risk of undesirable phase shifts. Under the combined effects of ocean changes and fishing, inshore rocky reefs in eastern Tasmania can transition from dense seaweed beds to sea urchin 'barrens' habitat, realising severe local loss of habitat, productivity and valuable fisheries. Using Monte-Carlo simulations with a validated model that realistically captures reef dynamics, we characterise the hysteresis in community dynamics and the variability in ecological thresholds along the gradient of environmental conditions. Simulation suggests that prevention of ongoing sea urchin destructive grazing of macroalgal beds is achievable but the yet-to-be-observed restoration of seaweed beds from extensive sea urchin barrens is highly unlikely. To guide management against undesirable phase shifts, we define target points associated with low risk of widespread barrens formation and show that, along with sea urchin culling, recognising the role of lobsters in mitigating sea urchin destructive grazing through predation is key to maintain reef productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been hypothesized that the high diversity of giant kelp forests is due primarily to the provision of energy and habitat by the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera). In this article, I use a 19-year-long kelp forest-monitoring data set from the Channel Islands National Park (a) to identify associations between subtidal species and forested or deforested habitats, (b) to generate an idealized food web for Southern California giant kelp forests in order to identify the primary conduits of energy flow through the system, and (c) to determine changes in the diversity and complexity of this food web due to localized giant kelp deforestation. A total of 275 common species were observed in the park between 1982 and 2000, of which 36% occurred significantly more often in kelp-forested areas than in deforested areas (that is, sea urchin barrens); 25 species were found exclusively in forested areas. Most of these associations were clearly identified as trophic and/or structural associations with giant kelp itself. The producer level of the food web was diverse, although giant kelp apparently represents the greatest single source of fixed carbon through either direct grazing or the production of phytodetritus. Primary, secondary and tertiary consumer levels were also represented by numerous species, and generalist consumers were common. With deforestation, the source of primary production shifts from primarily kelps to ephemeral microalgae, macroalgae, and phytoplankton. These results support the reliance of giant kelp forest food-web structure and diversity on the presence of the forest itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]