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Objective: The early prediction of hospital admission is important to ED patient management. Using available electronic data, we aimed to develop a predictive model for hospital admission. Methods: We analysed all presentations to the ED of a tertiary referral centre over 7 years. To our knowledge, our data set of nearly 600 000 presentations is the largest reported. Using demographic, clinical, socioeconomic, triage, vital signs, pathology data and keywords in electronic notes, we trained a machine learning (ML) model with presentations from 2015 to 2020 and evaluated it on a held‐out data set from 2021 to mid‐2022. We assessed electronic medical records (EMRs) data at patient arrival (baseline), 30, 60, 120 and 240 min after ED presentation. Results: The training data set included 424 354 data points and the validation data set 53 403. We developed and trained a binary classifier to predict inpatient admission. On a held‐out test data set of 121 258 data points, we predicted admission with 86% accuracy within 30 min of ED presentation with 94% discrimination. All models for different time points from ED presentation produced an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ≥0.93 for admission overall, with sensitivity/specificity/F1‐scores of 0.83/0.90/0.84 for any inpatient admission at 30 min after presentation and 0.81/0.92/0.84 at baseline. The models retained lower but still high AUC levels when separated for short stay units or inpatient admissions. Conclusion: We combined available electronic data and ML technology to achieve excellent predictive performance for subsequent hospital admission. Such prediction may assist with patient flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Intravenous antimicrobial therapy within 1 h of the diagnosis of septic shock is recommended in international sepsis guidelines. We aimed to evaluate the association between antimicrobial timing and mortality in patients presenting to the ED with septic shock. Methods: Post‐hoc analysis of 1587 adult participants enrolled in the Australasian Resuscitation in Sepsis Evaluation (ARISE) multicentre trial of early goal‐directed therapy for whom the time of initial antimicrobial therapy was recorded. We compared participants who had initiation of antimicrobials within the first hour (early) or later (delayed) of ED presentation. A propensity score model using inverse probability of treatment weighting was constructed to account for confounding baseline covariates. The primary outcome was 90‐day mortality. Results: The median (interquartile range) time to initiating antimicrobials was 69 (39–112) min with 712 (44.9%) participants receiving the first dose within the first hour of ED presentation. Compared with delayed therapy, early administration was associated with increased baseline illness severity score and greater intensity of resuscitation pre‐randomisation (fluid volumes, vasopressors, invasive ventilation). All‐cause 90‐day mortality was also higher; 22.6% versus 15.5%; unadjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16–2.15), P = 0.004. After inverse probability of treatment weighting, the mortality difference was non‐significant; OR 1.30 (95% CI 0.95–1.76), P = 0.1. Live discharge rates from ICU (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.72–0.91; P = 0.80) and hospital (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.82–1.06; P = 0.29) were also not different between groups. Conclusion: In this post‐hoc analysis of the ARISE trial, early antimicrobial therapy was associated with increased illness severity, but 90‐day adjusted mortality was not reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To describe haemodynamic resuscitation practices in ED patients with suspected sepsis and hypotension. Methods: This was a prospective, multicentre, observational study conducted in 70 hospitals in Australia and New Zealand between September 2018 and January 2019. Consecutive adults presenting to the ED during a 30‐day period at each site, with suspected sepsis and hypotension (systolic blood pressure <100 mmHg) despite at least 1000 mL fluid resuscitation, were eligible. Data included baseline demographics, clinical and laboratory variables and intravenous fluid volume administered, vasopressor administration at baseline and 6‐ and 24‐h post‐enrolment, time to antimicrobial administration, intensive care admission, organ support and in‐hospital mortality. Results: A total of 4477 patients were screened and 591 were included with a mean (standard deviation) age of 62 (19) years, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score 15.2 (6.6) and a median (interquartile range) systolic blood pressure of 94 mmHg (87–100). Median time to first intravenous antimicrobials was 77 min (42–148). A vasopressor infusion was commenced within 24 h in 177 (30.2%) patients, with noradrenaline the most frequently used (n = 138, 78%). A median of 2000 mL (1500–3000) of intravenous fluids was administered prior to commencing vasopressors. The total volume of fluid administered from pre‐enrolment to 24 h was 4200 mL (3000–5661), with a range from 1000 to 12 200 mL. Two hundred and eighteen patients (37.1%) were admitted to an intensive care unit. Overall in‐hospital mortality was 6.2% (95% confidence interval 4.4–8.5%). Conclusion: Current resuscitation practice in patients with sepsis and hypotension varies widely and occupies the spectrum between a restricted volume/earlier vasopressor and liberal fluid/later vasopressor strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess whether the initiation of vasopressor infusions via peripheral venous catheters (PVC) compared to central venous catheters (CVC) in ED patients with early septic shock was associated with differences in processes of care and outcomes. Methods: We conducted a post‐hoc analysis of the ARISE trial. We compared participants who had a vasopressor infusion first commenced via a PVC versus a CVC. The primary outcome was 90 day mortality. Results: We studied 937 participants. Of these, 389 (42%) had early vasopressor infusion commenced via a PVC and 548 (58%) via a CVC. Trial participants who received a vasopressor infusion via a PVC were more severely ill, with higher median (interquartile range [IQR]) Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) scores (17 [13–23] versus 16 [12–21], P = 0.003), and higher median (IQR) lactate (mmol/L) (3.6 [1.9–5.8] versus 2.5 [1.5–4.5], P < 0.001). After adjusting for baseline covariates, the estimated odds ratio for mortality for PVC‐treated patients was 1.26 (95% confidence interval 0.95–1.67, P = 0.11). Trial participants who had vasopressors commenced via PVC had a shorter median (IQR) time to commencement of antimicrobials (55 [32–96] versus 71.5 [39–119] min, P < 0.001) and a shorter median (IQR) time to commencement of vasopressors (2.4 [1.3–3.9] versus 4.9 [3.5–6.6] h, P < 0.001). Conclusion: The practice of commencing a vasopressor infusion via a PVC was common in the ARISE trial and more frequent in trial participants with higher severity of illness. Commencement of a vasopressor infusion via a PVC was associated with some improvements in processes of care and, after adjustment, was not associated with an increased risk of death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: There is uncertainty about the optimal i.v. fluid volume and timing of vasopressor commencement in the resuscitation of patients with sepsis and hypotension. We aim to study current resuscitation practices in EDs in Australia and New Zealand (the Australasian Resuscitation In Sepsis Evaluation: FLUid or vasopressors In Emergency Department Sepsis [ARISE FLUIDS] observational study). Methods: ARISE FLUIDS is a prospective, multicentre observational study in 71 hospitals in Australia and New Zealand. It will include adult patients presenting to the ED during a 30 day period with suspected sepsis and hypotension (systolic blood pressure <100 mmHg) despite at least 1000 mL fluid resuscitation. We will obtain data on baseline demographics, clinical and laboratory variables, all i.v. fluid given in the first 24 h, vasopressor use, time to antimicrobial administration, admission to intensive care, organ failure and in‐hospital mortality. We will specifically describe (i) the volume of fluid administered at the following time points: when meeting eligibility criteria, in the first 6 h, at 24 h and prior to vasopressor commencement and (ii) the frequency and timing of vasopressor use in the first 6 h and at 24 h. Screening logs will provide reliable estimates of the proportion of ED patients meeting eligibility criteria for a subsequent randomised controlled trial. Discussion: This multicentre, observational study will provide insight into current haemodynamic resuscitation practices in patients with sepsis and hypotension as well as estimates of practice variation and patient outcomes. The results will inform the design and feasibility of a multicentre phase III trial of early haemodynamic resuscitation in patients presenting to ED with sepsis and hypotension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]