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This paper aims to examine the long-run nonlinear relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions for the Sweden economy by using a long span of annual time-series data over the period of 1850–2008. We applied novel multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model suggested by Friedman (Ann Stat 19(1):1–67, 1991) and also employed threshold cointegration approach suggested by Sephton (Comput Econ 7(1):23–35, 1994) and Sephton and Mann (Energy Econ 36:177–181, 2013a, J Econ Econom 56(2):54–77, 2013b) to investigate the presence of both nonlinear cointegration and asymmetric dynamic adjusting processes between economic growth and CO2 emissions. The results provide the presence of nonlinear cointegration between economic growth and CO2 emissions. The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is verified with the estimated turning point in 1970. This rough estimate mainly explained by the implementation of Naturvårdsverket in 1967, the increasing use of nuclear power and the Swedish Environmental Protection Act (Miljöskyddslagen) in 1969. The findings also suggest a three-regime threshold cointegration model for economic growth–CO2 emissions nexus. Thus, the speed of adjustment in emissions function around the long-run equilibrium depends on the threshold behaviour. The adjustment back to attractor is asymmetric: it differs if the disequilibrium is above or below the critical threshold point. The asymmetric adjustment in CO2 emissions is much faster than GDP per capita with 75% response to disequilibrium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Service trade has been growing at a higher rate than merchandise trade since the early 1980s. Using an instrument for service trade constructed from trading pair geographical information for 101 countries over the period from 2000 to 2010, this paper estimates the causal effect of service trade on income. The results reveal that a one percentage point increase in service trade increases per capita income by at least 0.1%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper analyzes how shocks to the copper price affect the economy of Chile, the world's largest producer of this metal. Chile is an interesting case study, it being an emerging commodity producing economy that has a fiscal rule, which explicitly takes into account the expected future copper price, and has adopted an inflation targeting monetary policy with a fully floating exchange rate. The empirical analysis consists in estimating structural vector autoregressive models where the shocks are identified by sign restrictions in order to make the distinctions of those caused by increasing world demand, decreasing copper supply, and specific copper demand, e.g., speculation in future price increases. Positive copper price shocks, independently of the source, result in an appreciated currency, whereas the effects on the other macroeconomic variables do depend on the source of the shock. While demand shocks affect the Chilean gross domestic product positively, this is not the case when the copper price increases because of a supply-side event or a specific copper demand. Particularly, the activity in the mining sector is affected, while the non-mining sector expands only when the shock is caused by increasing world demand. One explanation could be the stabilizing effect of the fiscal rule. The impacts on inflation and the interest rate are correlated because of the inflation targeting monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earlier investigations have concentrated on the effect of export expansion on economic growth while ignoring the importance of the stability of such relationship. This paper re-investigates empirically the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for five countries in the MENA region: Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey, using the Granger causality technique. This study covers the sample period from 1980:Q1 to 2012:Q4. With the full sample, we find evidence supporting the ELG hypothesis only in Jordan, Morocco, and Turkey. Nonetheless, our time-varying Granger causality results have significantly validated the evidence of instability of the ELG hypothesis in these MENA countries. Therefore, changes in policies and regulations to improve the export sector of these countries will not ultimately pay off in terms of achieving high rates of stable economic growth in these countries. Policymakers in these countries should search for the alternative catalyst of growth to continuously as well as to effectively promote long-term economic growth in these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been interesting perspectives on the role of real currency misalignment in productivity growth. Whereas some studies warn against the destructive effect of real currency misalignment on productivity growth, others simply encourage it, at least, in the form of undervaluation. This paper documents evidence in support of the latter argument for 100 middle-income countries for the 1994-2010 period, using fixed-effects and generalized method of moments estimation techniques. The paper finds real currency misalignment to enhance productivity growth if it occurs as undervaluation; and to hamper productivity growth if it occurs as overvaluation. The paper also finds the impact of real currency misalignment on productivity growth to be symmetric, implying that the size of the impact is independent of the size of the misalignment. Moreover, the choice of the real misalignment measure may matter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of financial development, economic growth and income inequality on poverty in India from 1970 to 2015 by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure. The findings reveal a robust long-run relationship between financial development, economic growth, inequality and poverty. Results show that financial development and economic growth help in poverty reduction in India, whereas income inequality and inflation aggravate poverty. Empirical evidence of the Granger-causality test supports the presence of unidirectional causality from financial development and economic growth to poverty. Moreover, bidirectional causality exists between inequality and poverty. The present study provides evidence on which the policymakers may proceed with detailed investigation of how specific financial sector policies and interventions can be deployed as effective instruments for achieving favorable economic growth and income distribution. The study recommends that policies geared toward increasing financial development and economic growth should be adopted to reduce the high level of poverty and inequality currently prevailing in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study attempts to investigate the relationship between international tourism, trade, and economic growth in India over the period from April 1991 to July 2012. To account for potential asymmetries in the relationship, we make use of new asymmetric Granger-causality tests and frequency analysis. We show that there is bidirectional Granger-causality between trade and tourism in positive components, whereas unidirectional Granger-causality runs from tourism to trade for negative components. Moreover, we find evidence of bidirectional Granger-causality between economic growth and tourism in positive components, but unidirectional Granger-causality running from economic growth to tourism for negative components. On the other hand, the results from frequency analysis provide evidence of Granger-causality between trade and tourism, and also between economic growth and tourism, at different frequency bands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies of the income convergence hypothesis for Latin American economies indicate that almost all are not systematically closing their income gap with developed nations. The few studies to consider whether they instead exhibit club convergence-i.e., convergence to a steady-state equilibrium significantly inferior to that of the developed economies-offer little convincing evidence of this either. We argue that this reflects the limitations of their measure of relative income (which includes their sample's average income) and/or the assumptions underlying the discrete-break unit-root tests they employ. By avoiding these limitations, we obtain evidence of two Latin American convergence clubs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the effects of US policy uncertainty-measured as the policy uncertainty index of Baker et al. (Measuring economic policy uncertainty, )-on Swedish GDP growth. Another source of spillovers of shocks to small open economies is thereby examined. We apply both Bayesian VAR models and spectral analysis to quarterly data from 1988 to 2013. Results show that increasing US policy uncertainty has significant negative effects on Swedish GDP growth. The effect seems to primarily stem from effects on investment growth and export growth. Our findings should prove useful to those who analyse and forecast the Swedish economy and potentially also other similar small open economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper studies the impact of globalization on financial development in a sample of 32 developed and developing economies over the period 1989-2012. Indicators of financial development include three banking indicators (private sector credit, domestic credit, and liquid liabilities) and three indicators of stock market development (value traded, turnover ratio, and stock market capitalization), all relevant to GDP. Two panel estimation methodologies are under consideration: panel cointegration and panel VAR. The findings reveal that financial development affects economic growth and globalization positively. Globalization helps mobilize economic growth, but does not help financial development as it helps increase access to external financing. Quality institutions do not impact financial development although the latter increases incentives for better quality institutions in support of sustainable growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP and vice versa (short-run bidirectional causality), (ii) the long-run effect of exports on non-export output, however, is negative on average, but (iii) there are large differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence and business and labor market regulation. In contrast, there is no significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb new knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to examine the export-output nexus in Japan by taking into account the time variation in the causal link with bootstrap Granger non-causality test and rolling estimation. The data used cover the seasonally adjusted real export and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 1957:1-2009:1 period. Standard Granger causality tests indicate no causality between export and real GDP series. On the contrary, full sample-modified Granger causality tests based on bootstrap, which are applicable irrespective of integration-cointegration properties of the data, indicate a bi-directional causal link between exports and real GDP. Accordingly, export growth should be an important factor behind Japan's high-economic growth in the last three decades. Using parameter stability tests, we show that these results are not uniform for different sample periods and results vary due to structural changes. Using bootstrap rolling window estimation, we find that there is a positive bi-directional predictive power from the mid 1970s to the late-1980s between the series, while from the late 1990s to 2009 there is a positive predictive power only from export growth to output growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes the degree of convergence of financial development for a panel of 50 countries. We apply the methodology of Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75:1771-1855, ) to various indicators of financial development to assess the existence of convergence clubs. We consider ten alternative indicators of financial development that various researchers use to proxy for the degree of financial development in countries. Overall, the results do not support the hypothesis that all countries converge to a single equilibrium state in financial development. Nevertheless, strong evidence exists of club convergence. Countries demonstrate a high degree of convergence in the sense that in the majority of financial indexes they form only two or three convergence clubs, depending on the measure of financial development used. We also apply the Phillips and Sul method to two real variables, per capita output and fixed capital investment to GDP, and find strong evidence of five and four distinct convergence clubs, respectively. Finally, we compare the various convergence clubs associated with financial development indicators to those clubs for per capita output and fixed capital investment to GDP. We conclude that strong evidence supports the correspondence between the convergence clubs for financial development and those two real variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the beginning of the 1990s, J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers highlighted in a series of influential articles that there were good reasons and quantitative evidence to support the point of view that machinery and equipment investment might be strongly associated with economic growth. China along with its enormous investment effort over recent decades constitutes an interesting case study with which to analyse the role played by equipment investment in its recent economic performance and its interaction with other sources of growth, i.e. openness, R&D, human capital and infrastructure. Our results provide evidence that equipment investment and exports are two of the most important determinants of both labour productivity and output in the long run even after controlling for other sources of growth in China. Furthermore, when human capital and infrastructure are included, the authors find that they have a positive effect on economic activity in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation and income on the trade balance has been to estimate the elasticity of trade volume to relative prices and income. The previous studies examine the problems associated with using aggregate data. The recent studies rely on bilateral data, yet another problem is that data for export and import prices are not available. Thus, this study proposes an alternative way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation by using the real exchange rate and the impact of income on bilateral trade. The models are applied between the EU and its major trading partners. Furthermore, the analysis includes the six major trading regions along side the eight major trading countries for 1980-2007, on the quarterly basis. This article uses the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach advocated by Pesaran and Pesaran (1997). Our results indicate a higher importance of income compared to the real exchange rate in defined bilateral export and import demand functions. In addition, the applied CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests confirm the stability of estimated coefficients in most cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we address an empirical question: is there evidence to substantiate the assumption that the post-war liberalization of world trade has actually led to a significant increase in the world GDP? In our attempt to answer that question, time series data in the PennWorld Table 6.1 are aggregated across countries to obtain a measure ofworld trade and output, and the total number ofGATT/WTOmember countries is employed as an explanatory variable to account for the impact of multilateral trade agreements, such as theKennedy Round, Tokyo Round, and theUruguay Round, on the trade-growth nexus.We then examine the relationship between world trade and the post-war GDP per worker across the world through the multivariate cointegration and error correction modeling and the Granger causality test. The results suggest that, at the global level, the post-war liberalization of multilateral trade has promoted both GDP and trade activities. There is also evidence that supports the export-led growth hypothesis in the world economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of terms of trade and terms of trade volatility on economic growth in Japan and Korea using time series data. The results of the Johansen (1988) cointegration method show that real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and terms of trade are jointly determined. Generally, an increase in terms of trade volatility will lead to a decrease in real GDP per capita. An increase in oil price will lead to a decrease in terms of trade. The results of the generalised forecast error variance decompositions show that the important contributors to real GDP per capita are different between Japan and Korea. A favourable and a less volatile terms of trade are important for economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses an influence spectrum to identify influential subsets in a stylized cross-country data set and finds that institutions, geography, and trade (policy), all appear to play a significant role in the development process for a relatively large sub-sample of countries. For example, equatorial distance, a proxy for geography, becomes positive and significant (originally negative and insignificant) after removing only eight countries or observations from the original sample of sixty-three, while controlling for institutions and trade. In fact, for this set of fifty-five countries all three variables have the correct sign and are statistically significant. As another example, the trade variable becomes positive and significant (originally insignificant) after removing only two countries from the original sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]