1. Development of new diabetes risk scores on the basis of the current definition of diabetes in Japanese subjects [Rapid Communication]
- Author
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Yasuto Nakasone, Yudai Hirayama, Masayuki Takayama, Rie Oka, Toru Aizawa, Kazuko Hirabayashi, Rie Hashikura, Yuka Sato, Keishi Yamauchi, Hideo Koike, and Takahiro Miyakoshi
- Subjects
Research design ,Adult ,Blood Glucose ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Multivariate statistics ,Diabetes risk ,Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism ,030209 endocrinology & metabolism ,Diagnostic Techniques, Endocrine ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Endocrinology ,Japan ,Risk Factors ,Internal medicine ,Diabetes mellitus ,Medicine ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Longitudinal Studies ,Family history ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,Glycated Hemoglobin ,business.industry ,Hazard ratio ,Retrospective cohort study ,Fasting ,Glucose Tolerance Test ,Middle Aged ,medicine.disease ,Blood pressure ,Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 ,Research Design ,Female ,business - Abstract
To develop diabetes risk score (RS) based on the current definition of diabetes, we retrospectively analyzed consecutive 4,159 health examinees who were non-diabetic at baseline. Diabetes, diagnosed by fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/L, 2hPG ≥11.1 mmol/L and/or HbA1c ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol), developed in 279 of them during the mean period of 4.9 years. A full RS (RSFull), a RS without 2hPG (RS-2hPG) and a non-invasive RS (RSNI) were created on the basis of multivariate Cox proportional model by weighted grading based on hazard ratio in half the persons assigned. The RSs were verified in the remaining half of the participants. Positive family history (FH), male sex, smoking and higher age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), FPG, 2hPG and HbA1c were independent predictors for RSFull. For RS-2hPG, 7 independent predictors, exclusive of 2hPG and smoking but inclusive of elevated triglycerides (TG) comparing to RSFull, were selected. FH, male sex, and higher age, SBP and HbA1c were independent predictors in RSNI. In the validation cohort, C-statistic (95%CI) of RSFull, RS-2hPG and RSNI were 0.80 (0.76-0.84), 0.75 (0.70-0.78) and 0.68 (0.63-0.72), respectively, which were significantly different from each other (P
- Published
- 2016