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Day-ahead electricity price forecasting (DAEPF) holds critical significance for stakeholders in energy markets, particularly in areas with large amounts of renewable energy sources (RES) integration. In Japan, the proliferation of RES has led to instances wherein day-ahead electricity prices drop to nearly zero JPY/kWh during peak RES production periods, substantially affecting transactions between electricity retailers and consumers. This paper introduces an innovative DAEPF framework employing a Convolutional Neural Network–Long Short-Term Memory (CNN–LSTM) model designed to predict day-ahead electricity prices in the Kyushu area of Japan. To mitigate the inherent uncertainties associated with neural networks, a novel ensemble learning approach is implemented to bolster the DAEPF model's robustness and prediction accuracy. The CNN–LSTM model is verified to outperform a standalone LSTM model in both prediction accuracy and computation time. Additionally, applying a natural logarithm transformation to the target day-ahead electricity price as a pre-processing technique has proven necessary for higher prediction accuracy. A novel "policy-versus-policy" strategy is proposed to address the prediction problem of the zero prices, halving the computation time of the traditional two-stage method. The efficacy of incorporating a suite of multimodal features: areal day-ahead electricity price, day-ahead system electricity price, areal actual power generation, areal meteorological forecasts, calendar forecasts, alongside the rolling features of areal day-ahead electricity price, as explanatory variables to significantly enhance DAEPF accuracy has been validated. With the full integration of the proposed features, the CNN–LSTM ensemble model achieves its highest accuracy, reaching performance metrics of R 2 , MAE, and RMSE of 0.787, 1.936 JPY/kWh, and 2.630 JPY/kWh, respectively, during the test range from 1 March 2023 to 31 March 2023, underscoring the advantages of a comprehensive, multi-dimensional approach to DAEPF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electricity market is constantly evolving, being driven by factors such as market liberalization, the increasing use of renewable energy sources (RESs), and various economic and political influences. These dynamics make it challenging to predict wholesale electricity prices. Accurate short-term forecasting is crucial to maintaining system balance and addressing anomalies such as negative prices and deviations from predictions. This paper investigates short-term electricity price forecasting using historical time series data and employs advanced deep learning algorithms. First, four deep learning models are implemented and proposed, which are a convolutional neural network (CNN) with an integrated attention mechanism, a hybrid CNN followed by a gated recurrent unit model (CNN-GRU) with an attention mechanism, and two ensemble learning models, which are a soft voting ensemble and a stacking ensemble model. Also, the optimized version of a transformer model, the Multi-Head Attention model, is introduced. Finally, the perceptron model is used as a benchmark for comparison. Our results show excellent prediction accuracy, particularly in the hybrid CNN-GRU model with attention, thereby achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 6.333%. The soft voting ensemble model and the Multi-Head Attention model also performed well, with MAPEs of 6.125% and 6.889%, respectively. These findings are significant, as previous studies have not shown high performance with transformer models and attention mechanisms. The presented results offer promising insights for future research in this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research delineates a pivotal advancement in the domain of sustainable energy systems, with a focused emphasis on the integration of renewable energy sources—predominantly wind and solar power—into the hydrogen production paradigm. At the core of this scientific endeavor is the formulation and implementation of a deep-learning-based framework for short-term localized weather forecasting, specifically designed to enhance the efficiency of hydrogen production derived from renewable energy sources. The study presents a comprehensive evaluation of the efficacy of fully connected neural networks (FCNs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) within the realm of deep learning, aimed at refining the accuracy of renewable energy forecasts. These methodologies have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in navigating the inherent complexities and variabilities associated with renewable energy systems, thereby significantly improving the reliability and precision of predictions pertaining to energy output. The cornerstone of this investigation is the deployment of an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven weather forecasting system, which meticulously analyzes data procured from 25 distinct weather monitoring stations across Latvia. This system is specifically tailored to deliver short-term (1 h ahead) forecasts, employing a comprehensive sensor fusion approach to accurately predicting wind and solar power outputs. A major finding of this research is the achievement of a mean squared error (MSE) of 1.36 in the forecasting model, underscoring the potential of this approach in optimizing renewable energy utilization for hydrogen production. Furthermore, the paper elucidates the construction of the forecasting model, revealing that the integration of sensor fusion significantly enhances the model's predictive capabilities by leveraging data from multiple sources to generate a more accurate and robust forecast. The entire codebase developed during this research endeavor has been made available on an open access GIT server. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]